Realizing the Transport We Want: What will it take?

Jose Luis IrigoyenDirector of Transport and ICT, World Bank

ENACOR Mobility ForumSeptember 2016 – Brasilia

What does the future of transport look like 15 years from now? What are the 5 top trends

shaping the future of transportation?

World Transportation needs are growing rapidly

0

1000000

2000000

3000000

4000000

5000000

6000000

Trill

ions

of t

ons -

km

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

02000000400000060000008000000

10000000120000001400000016000000

High Income

Road Rail

Frei

ght

Pass

enge

rs

The volume of transported passengers and freight has exploded in developing countries

Global transport volumes will continue to growSource: 2016 Outlook, International Transport Forum

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

2011

2013

01000000200000030000004000000500000060000007000000

Trill

ions

of t

ons -

km

2000

2002

2004

2006

2008

2010

2012

2014

0

500000

1000000

1500000

2000000

2500000

Low & Middle Income

Trill

ions

of p

asse

nger

- km

Source: World Bank. Development Indicators

Trade volumes continue to grow

International freight in ton-km by corridor: 2010, 2030 and 2050

• Expected growth in trade translates into freight volumes growing by 4.2% annually between 2015 – 2030

• Significant changes in the geographical composition of trade• Hinterland connections will face the largest capacity challenges

Source: Outlook 2016, International Transport Forum

5

Socio-economic shift in makeup of global population

Private cars

Half of world population will move into middle class by 2030 with new

mobility aspirations

Major achievements in reducing poverty in past 10 years, but 3% target by 2030 far from secured

Source: World Bank

• More attention to equity issues, vulnerable groups (age, gender)• Social aspirations: broader opportunities for social outcomes, jobs, greater social

accountability, quality of services (e.g., public transport)• Car ownership projected to grow by 60% by 2025

Shift boosts new demands for transport

Private cars

Percent increase of total, transportation, and food consumption, 2013-35

Source: Hellebrandt and Mauro (2015)

Household’s spending on transportation projected to increase by factor of 2 in Latin

America and the Caribbean between 2013-2035

Global population shares by age cohort, %Source: World Bank

7

Brazil’s Logistics & Infrastructure OutlookLogistics Performance Index

(1 = best)• The LPI reflects the high cost of trade in

Brazil• 65th position in world classification• The efficiency of the clearance process

(speed, simplicity and predictability of formalities) by border control agencies is the most important bottleneck in Brazil

• Infrastructure problems, among other issues

• Lack of integration

12-15% GDP

logistics cost

Globalization 2.0: rebalancing from N - S to W - E

Merchandise trade, a cartographic visualization

Source: DHL Global Connectedness Index 2014

Logistics and supply chains play bigger role in a country’s growth as demand for products becomes global

Source: Kose and Ozburk (2014), World Bank Development Indicators, Global Monitoring Report (2015).

Global Economic IntegrationTrade integration ratio of total imports and exports to global GDP. Financial integration: ratio of total financial inflows and outflows to global GDP

Percent of GDP

“You can talk about the miracle of e-commerce in China or in the world … but the logistics industry is where China’s real great miracle has been over the past decade” Jack Ma, Global Smart Logistics Summit, June 2016:

Globalization 2.0: emerging trends

• Integrated systems for synchronized use of different transport modes based on available capacity at all times

• Reconfiguration of trade routes in line with shifting patterns in consumption and production

• More balanced globalization: (1) expanding global value chains into “new territories” (countries, regions, sectors) and (2) reducing carbon footprint through shortened and improved supply chains (“lean and green” initiatives)

Surface freight density – 2010Source: 2016 Outlook, ITF

Surface freight density 2030Source: 2016 Outlook, ITF

Urbanization brings opportunities, also challengesCities with more than 10 million in 2030

• Rapid pace of urbanization exacerbates institutional and resource constraints• Right choices early on to avoid “lock-in”: land use and transport planning;

emphasis on public transport• By 2030, the population of slums may rise to over 1 billion

Megacities congested even at low motorization rates

Cities are learning that is not possible to build way out of congestion

ICT/digital innovation in a hyper-connected worldConnectivity enables flow of goods, finance, knowledge, technology… ICTs are a powerful tool for reducing friction in such flows• New ways of communicating (smart phones, digital platforms, IoT, cloud computing)• New forms of mobility (e-commerce, connected vehicles, driverless vehicles, drones)• Predictive power of “Big Data” analytics for better planning, increased responsiveness

Source: Boston Consulting Group 2013 and GSMA 2013

Unique subscribers forecast for LAC

112.5 MUnique subscribers in Brazil by mid-2013

mAutomotive revenues in LAC (USM$)

ICTs integrate travel demand and transport solutions

1. Card is system integrator among all modes. Open standards/ protocols enable seamless user experience

2. Card allows design of subsidy: Government of Rio pays when user needs multiple transfers

4. Subsidy scheme can be linked to social security infrastructure

Bogota SITP fare card, Colombia

Aadhaar card, India

3. Multi-purpose use of card can stimulate use of public transport

Rio Janeiro’s smart card

• Planning people-centered services and monitoring performance in real time• Incentivizing behavior change, “demand management” schemes, crowdsourcing• Integrating services across modes, addressing affordability through smart subsidies

Matching power of ICTs enabling “shared economy”Ride Sourcing/Vehicle Sharing (ownership)/Future: Automated Vehicle Sharing

Huge potential of “Big Data” and data analytics in transportation• Explosive growth in connected devices,

social networking platforms• Velocity of data aggregation/processing. • Sophisticated analytics can substantially

improve decision making• Data privacy issues important

14

Private participation in transportPrivate investments are increasingly growing and helping to finance the infrastructure gap in developing countries, in a more cost-efficient fashion

0

10000

20000

30000

40000

50000

60000

70000Evolution of private participation in

transport infrastructure

Developing countries

Brazil

Source: PPI (2016)

• Second phase of PIL estimates investments of R$198.4 billion through concessions

Total investment in PPP in countries with the highest investment

Climate Change is a threat to development“Different from past environmental problems for its scale, magnitude of its risks, urgency of global action”. N. Stern, May 2016

Source: World Bank, Shock Waves Policy Note (2016)

Climate risks need to be integrated into planning/design, prioritizing robustness and resiliency more than before• Broad but uneven impacts on economy• Increasing frequency, costs of natural

disasters• Poor countries, poor people likely to

face greatest impact

Climate change increasing uncertainty

Transport: major contributor to global CO2 emissions

At 2% yearly 1990-2012, the fastest growing source • Without modal shift transport

will become largest emitter.• Emissions projected to nearly

double by 2050 without action

Outlook 2016, ITF

Transport currently contributes almost 23% of energy-related global emissions and rising…

Lifecycle CO2 emissions, 2010

Yet until recently, transport was absent from almost all scenarios on how to stabilize concentration of GHGs in atmosphere

17

How Climate Change is Affecting Brazil’s reality

CO2 emissions from vehicles

Number of natural disasters per year

18

An Public Health Increasing Issue

Around 6.5 million premature deaths each year can be attributed to air pollution

Fuels used for transport, first and foremost diesel, generate more than half the nitrogen oxides emitted globally.

Global efforts on sustainable mobility have so far been insufficient

Over 1 billion people have

no access to an all-weather

road

billion people 1

70 percent of fuel energy

lost in engine and driveline inefficiencies

70

19

Number of vehicles on the road expected to double to 2 billion by 2050

1Road death rate per 100,000 population

increased 32% in Low Income Countries

(from 18.3 in 2010 to 24.1 in 2013)

32Transport accounts for 23% of energy-

related GHG emissions and this share is increasing

% in roaddeaths

% GHG emissions23% fuel

energybillion cars

Big challenges ahead to put mobility on sustainable path

20

Large co-benefits from truly “sustainable mobility”

• Size and relevance of co benefits – they reinforce each other• Land and infrastructure policies today determine future travel, fuel use• Choice is between pathways that exacerbate climate risks and pathways that

reduce climate risk and foster “better growth” (inclusive, green)

Current trends contribute to costly social externalities

OECD Average

Brazil

Congestion 8.5% 1-3%8.2% (Rio de Janeiro

Metropolitan Region)

7.8 (São Paulo Metropolitan

Region)

Accidents 1.5-2% 4%

Air pollution

3% 1.4%0 10000 20000 30000 40000 50000 60000

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

GDP per capita (USD) 2010 PPP)

Four

-whe

eler m

otor

isatio

n ra

te

Europe (France, Italy and Germany)

North-ern America

India Brazil

Source: ITF (2015)

Traffic costs (as a share of GDP):

21

Transport sector in Brazil – Key features

Transport sector

governance is scattered.

Low productivity

At least 4 ministries

dealing with transport at the

federal level

Poor inter-jurisdictional

coordination at metropolitan

level

There is a severe

infrastructure gap.

Brazil ranked 70th for the

quality of its infrastructure

Only 2.1% of GDP in

infrastructure, China 13.4%

and Chile 6.2%.

Inadequate stock of urban and interurban infrastructure

Injury caused by poor road

safety is an epidemic problem.

42,000 dead annually and

650,000 severely injured

Fatalities at higher rates than other

LAC countries

Costs of crashes

between BRL 450 billion and BRL 501 billion

Under-investment

in public transport

Cities include 85% of people and most

of the poor population

Private vehicle fleet (especially

motorcycles) growing rapidly

Services delivery deteriorates as cities expand

uncontrollably

Public transport commutes take on average twice as

long as private cars commutes

Logistics costs are

high.

Logistic costs well above OECD levels (15-18% of

GDP)

Classified 65th on the World Bank Logistics Performance

Index

Green is not in the

agenda.

Transport is responsible for 50% of all fossil fuel consumed in Brazil and is

the fastest growing sector

Vast majority of freight moved

by trucks

Urban passenger transport

contributes 55% of GHG

emissions for the sector

How the global agreements reached in 2015 impact the way we frame and implement a

truly sustainable transport agenda?

23

SDGs: Major increase in global development ambition• SDGs shift focus to absolute and sustainable progress across a

broader array of areas (from 8 under MDGs):– 17 goals and 169 targets to be attained by all countries around the world– Overarching goal to end poverty, equitable development, sustainability

24

SDGs and Transport: The opportunity for a broader vision

• Five targets directly involve transport: – Halve number of deaths and injuries from road traffic accidents (3.6); – Double global rate of improvement in energy efficiency (7.3);– Develop sustainable and resilient regional and trans-border infrastructure

…with a focus on affordable and equitable access for all (9.1); – Provide access to safe, affordable, accessible and sustainable transport,

notably expanding public transport (11.2);– Rationalize inefficient fossil fuels subsidies (12.c)

• Attaining at least another six targets will critically depend on it:– Eradicating extreme poverty (1.1), agriculture productivity (2.1), air

pollution (3.9), sustainable cities (11.6), reduction of food loss (12.3), climate change adaptation and mitigation (13.1)…

• Mainstreaming of transport across SDGs underscores its importance as enabler of other sectors’ achievements

SDG3: Road Safety one of the targets

Source: WHO Global Status Report on Road Safety 2015

What will it take for developing countries to reach the tipping point?

Spain: Managing for results 1980-2013

A global health crisis:• 1.25 million deaths per year, 20-

50 million injured (since 2007)• Top cause of death 15-29 years

oldAn equity issue:• 50% of fatalities vulnerable

groups: pedestrians, cyclists, motorcyclists

2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 201490

100

110

120

130

140

150

160

Brazil Road Crash Fatalities

26

Road safety: the case of BrazilA Brazilian health crisis:• 45,000 fatalities and 190,000 serious injuries due

to road accidents in 2012, and the number is growing.

• From 2002 to 2012, fatalities from traffic accidents increased 37%.

• Top cause of death, at the same level as crime

An equity issue:• 52% of fatalities in Brazil are motorcyclists

• Rapid increase of motorization rate since 2000, particularly motorcycles

• Absence of leading authority• Absence of a comprehensive

national crash database• Incomplete regulatory

framework• Lack of funding

Road traffic deaths in LAC (per 100,000 population)

215 billion reais cost

27

Rural Access IndexShare of rural population living within 2 km of an all-season road.• 2006 results: 1 bn people unconnected

to an all-weather road (based on household surveys)

• 2016 update based on geospatial data

Emphasis on equity: SDG9 inclusive accessRural Accessibility Index, LAC

Source: Iimi et al, World Bank 2016

Measuring access to opportunities: Number of jobs accessible within 1 hour of starting point

Emphasis on equity: SDG11 inclusive access in CitiesMeasuring access under Target 11.2.1: Proportion of population that has convenient access to public transport

29

UN Road Safety Conference

Brasilia Declaration on Road Safety

• Strengthening road safety management and improving legislation and enforcement

• Promote safer roads and the use sustainable modes of transportation

• Protect vulnerable road users

• Develop and promote the use of safer vehicles

• Increase awareness and build capacity of road users

• Improve post-crash response and rehabilitation services

• Strengthen cooperation and coordination towards global road safety

Decade of Action for Road Safety 2011 - 2020

Paris Agreement at COP21 of UNFCCC• Global agreement to limit global warming to well below 2oC and

make efforts to limit increase to 1.5oC (December 2015)– Countries encouraged to reach peak GHG emissions as soon as possible

and achieve rapid reductions thereafter to “net zero” between 2050-2099– NDCs: reviewing and strengthening them every 5 years, starting in 2020– Adaptation as important as mitigation actions– International collaboration on low carbon research to enhance

willingness to cooperate

Many actors have made voluntary financial and operational commitments:

>70% countries are

targeting transport in their

NDCs

COUNTRIES

>80 C40 cities are

tackling climate change

and climate risk

CITIES

>260transportation

companies pledged

to reduce GHG emissions

PRIVATE SECTOR

>$175 billion

committed for sustainable transport

from 2013 to 2022

MDBs

15 initiatives have committed to

reducing carbon footprint across transport modes

CIVIL SOCIETY

LPAA/PPMC transport initiatives at COP21Airport Carbon Accreditation: Reduce carbon emissions & increase airport sustainability (50 airports carbon neutral by 2030

Aviation’s Climate Action Takes Off: Collaborative climate action across the air transport sector

C40 Clean Bus Declaration: Raising ambition and catalyzing markets

Global Fuel Economy Initiative: 100 countries 50 by 50. Double fuel economy of vehicles by 2050

Global Green Freight Action Plan: Reduce climate and health impacts of goods transport

ITS for Climate: Use Intelligent Transportation Systems (ITS) to deliver big results at a small cost

Low Carbon Road and Road Transport Initiative (PIARC). Climate adaptation policies.

MobiliseYourCity: 100 cities engaged in sustainable urban mobility planning to reduce greenhouse gas emissions

Navigating a Changing Climate: Reduce emissions, strengthen resilience, and adapt waterborne transport infrastructure

UIC Low Carbon Sustainable Rail Transport Challenge: 50% reduction of CO2 emissions, 50% increase in rail’s share of pax by 2030

UITP Declaration on Climate Change Leader-ship: Double the market share of public transport by 2025Urban Electric Mobility Initiative: Harness technological innovation and better urban planning to promote low carbon transport

Worldwide Taxis4SmartCities: Accelerate introduction of low emission vehicles in taxis fleet by 2020

ZEV Alliance: Accelerate adoption of global zero-emission vehicles

World Cycling Alliance (WCA) and European Cyclists’ Federation (ECF) Commitment: Double cycling in European cities by 2030

Re-new

ables45%

Other

Energy Mix

Renewables40.00%

Other

Energy Mix

32

Brazil’s commitments to GHG reduction by 2030

• In the transportation sector, Brazil intends to further promote efficiency measures, and improve infrastructure for transport and public transportation in urban areas

2005 2025 20300

0.5

1

1.5

2

2.5

Emissions

GtCO

2e

Biofuels18.00%Other

Energy Mix

2030

Today

Beyond incremental action: Targets and lock-in effects

“Planning INDCs to 2025-2030 is not enough! Two paths to 26-28% emissions by 2025. One is dead-end. The other a path to de-carbonization”. J. Sachs, World Climate Summit, Washington DC, May 2017

ITF Decarbonization ProjectA commonly-acceptable pathway to achieve zero transport emissions by around 2050.• Federate existing data and knowledge on

transport to create most comprehensive model of global transport activity to date.

• Provide decision makers with a tool to test and gauge impact of policies and actions.

• Bring broad set of partners into the design of roadmap towards carbon-neutral transport.

What will it take to implement such agenda? What are the emerging knowledge and policy gaps that may affect good decision making?

Embed mitigation, adaptation and environmental

concerns into supply and demand

CLIMATE & ENVIRONMENT

Improve the safety of mobility (SDG target 3.6 on road safety)

SAFETY

Secure access for all to economic and

social opportunities

INCLUSIVEACCESS

Increase the efficiency of

transport systems and services

EFFICIENCY

GOAL

SAR

EAS

OF

FOCU

S

• Transport infrastructure investment

• Sustainable asset management and Transportation Demand Mgmt to get the most of existing infra.

• Logistics costs• Seamless inter-

modal transport and logistics, lean & green initiatives

• Smart solutions (ICT/Big Data)

• Secure transport and logistic systems

Rural population living within 2 km of all weather road

Urban population with access to public transport

Equitable access for all stake-holders, including groups w/special needs ((gender, age, disabilities)

Affordable to the poor (including demand subsidies where necessary)

A shared Vision for “Sustainable Transport for all”

• Safe system approach to halve fatalities and injuries by 2020

• Active transport (walking and cycling) to support healthy lifestyles

• Transport-related air pollution reduced in line with WHO standards

• GHG emissions in line w/low carbon trajectory for de-carbonization

• Make infrastructure climate resilient

• Shift to rail, water-ways, high quality public transport, walking/cycling, shared- veh, TDM

• Improve vehicle technology, fuel efficiency stds, vehicle mtce.

36

The path towards the future transportImprove logistic performance and mitigate climate change: mass transport, energy efficiency, lower transport costs, logistic integration.• Planning: Update PNLI, strengthening intermodal planning area• Corridor studies• Corridor investments• Road transport efficiency: green truck, transport supply/demand optimization, sector

consolidation

Road/waterway infrastructure resilience: climate adaptation.• Policies: national strategy for road/waterway infrastructure resilience• Investments: investment program to improve resilience, investment program in bridges

Road safety: Brazil’s contribution to global objectives• Policies and institutional: national strategy, lead agency, integrated database• Infrastructure: Brazil-RAP, road investments• Enforcement: police training equipment, fine process• Regulation: driving license, vehicle license and control…

37

Climate Change: WBG value addedHelping

to fill the knowledg

e and awarenes

s

Improve efficiency

and leverage existing

funding to increase

investment Supportin

g the emergence of a new climate-change

governance

Supporting the

design of climate policies

and plans

38

World Bank Lending in Brazil

RJ: Enhancing Public Management

SP: Sustainable Transport

BA: Road rehabilitation and maintenance – 2nd phase

RJ: Greening Rail System

TO: Integrated Sustainable Regional Development

MS: State Roads Transport

RS: Strengthening Public Investment SWAp SP: Metro Lines 4 and 5

39

World Bank Lending in Brazil

Bahia road rehabilitation and maintenance project – 2nd phase. Loan amount USD 200 million. Disbursement rate 1.5%. Approval date 01/29/2016 Closing date 06/30/2020.

Rio Grande do Sul SWAp. Loan amount USD 450 million (Transport: USD 220 million). Disbursement rate 44.25%. Approval date 05/01/2012 Closing date 06/01/2017.

Sao Paulo State Sustainable Transport Project. USD 300 million IBRD loan + USD 300 million private loan backed by MIGA NHFSO. Disbursement rate 66.57%. Approval date 06/14/2013. Closing date 03/31/2019.

Sao Paulo Metro line 4: USD 130 million IBRD loan, 64.97% disbursed; Closing date: 02/28/2018. Sao Paulo metro line 5: USD 650 million IBRD loan, 44.76% disbursed; Closing date: 12/30/2016.

Tocantins Integrated Sustainable Regional Development. Loan amount USD 300 million. Disbursement rate 25.65%. Approval date 07/26/2012. Closing date 03/31/2019.

RS

SP

TOActive

Just closed

BA

Upgrading and Greening the Rio de Janeiro Urban Rail System (Mass Transit II Project): USD 811.7 million IBRD loan, 69.26% disbursed, Closing Date: June 30, 2017.

Enhancing Public Management for Service Delivery DPO: USD 500 million IBRD loan, 100% disbursed, Closing Date: January 31, 2016

RJ

Mato Grosso do Sul State Road Transport Project. Loan amount USD 300 million. Disbursement rate 99.87%. Approval date 05/01/2012. Closed since 06/30/2016.MS

Leaders in Urban Transport Planning. Building capacity for holistic thinking and planning through participatory problem solving and networking with practitioners

New demands on skills, institutions

• Breaking silos - institutions that work together both vertically and horizontally towards common goals– Strong institutions set for accountability of specialized

functions… – now need to coordinate across sectors and different levels

of government…– ensuring coherence among strategies, policies, project

selection…• Urgent need to build institutional capacity at local level:

– Adaptable cities must strive for solutions that are “best fit” to local conditions

– Multiplication of actors as cities become more interconnected with technology (governance)

41

New demands on skills, institutions

• Knowledge products addressing most urgent needs in Brazil transportation sector– Short sea shipping– Road safety– Waterways Masterplan– Logistic costs

• Toolkit to guide decision-makers while developing transport corridor projects

Obrigado!

43

Rapid Urbanization: spaces are transforming faster

1980

Today

Shenzhen, ChinaFrom a fishing village of several thousand

To a city of 9 million

• East Asian cities expected to triple their built up area in 20 years

• African cities expected to double their footprint by 2030; rapid urbanization at lower levels of income

Observed and projected number of new urban residents in developed and less developed countriesMillion people per year

Source: Brandon Fuller and Paul Romer. 2014. “Urbanization as Opportunity”. World Bank Policy Research Working Paper

Challenges of rapid urbanization in Africa

Households in African cities face higher costs relative to their per capita GDP than in other regions. Urban transport is about 42% more expensive in African cities than other countries

Connections among people as a function of population near city centerCities in Sub-Saharan Africa are crowded but physically dispersed and less well-connected than other cities

Source: World Bank Regional Study on Spatial Development of African Cities. Team Led by Shomik Lal

45

Choices will lock-in lifestyles, energy use, vulnerability

Atlanta Barcelona

Population (million) 5.25 5.33

Area (sq km) 4280 162

CO2 emission tons/year 7.5 0.7

Barcelona

Atlanta Bogota

Los Angeles

SDG 11: Why special focus on cities?

Urbanization and GDP per capita

Spur Economic Growth

• Cities generate 80% of global output (500, 60% of global income growth)

• Growing welfare costs of traffic congestion

-

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030

CO

2 (M

ILLI

ON

KG

)

CO2 emissions from urban transport (1980-2030)

Source: Shyam Menon, World Bank/EMBARQ (WRI),Jan 2007

Tackle Local/Global Environment

• Urban outdoor pollution linked to 4 million premature deaths

• Cities contribute 70% of energy –related GHG emissions

Bring Inclusive Development

• Growth of slums (urban poverty, social exclusion)

• Bottom quintile spends disproportionate share of income on public transport

47

Scale and focus essential to radically transform the movement of people and goods in the short, medium, and long-term.

In the short-term: a set of “quick-wins”, such as:Expand congestion/road and parking charging in major global cities to eliminate distortions

Modernize ageing fleets, management systems to increase efficiency, and reduce empty runs

In the long-term: actions that support and accelerate the implementation of a Global Roadmap for De-Carbonization of the Transport Sector

Clear policies and well-coordinated bold Actions

In the medium-term: actions such as:Dedicate funding for sustainable mobility in the Green Climate and Climate Investment funds

Rebalance urban public space in favor of NMT and expand use of public transport/mass transit

Tighten fuel economy standards to make transport cleaner/more efficient

Accelerate the introduction of carbon pricing (including reforms to eliminate fuel subsidies w/o impacting the poor

Simplify regulations and incentives to encourage private investment in efficient low carbon technologies

Roll out technologies that can drastically reduce traffic crashes and fatalities

Green House Gas Effect

Financial Liabilities

Farmland Conversion

Traffic Accidents

Auto Pollution

Traffic Congestion

GLOBAL

LOCAL

NATIONAL

Energy Security / Fuel PricesGLOBALGLOBAL

LOCALLOCAL

NATIONALNATIONAL

G-20 Toolkit on Urban Transport. Mexico, 2012

• A coalition to galvanize action from public/private sector for sustainable mobility– National and city government: national/local leadership, policies– Private sector: investing in cutting edge sustainable transport, sharing data– Civil Society and academia/research: advocacy, knowledge, new solutions– International organizations: global clout, knowledge and financing

A global leadership coalition to galvanize action

“Sustainable Mobility” has become a local, national and global issue

49

Some implementation challenges and knowledge gaps ahead:• A strong foundation of data, indicators, and a results framework to monitor

progress against SDGs and the vision goals• Rigorous documentation of wider benefits, cross sector impacts of spatial

development patterns and access to transport (eg., labor markets) that can support an evidence-based Theory of Change

• Robust modelling tools to assess impact of policies, regulations and investments on goals and underpin preparation of plans (NDCs, Road Safety Plans, etc) that support a satisfactory trajectory towards the goals

• More comprehensive appraisal methodologies to value all benefits/social costs of transport, and support alternative decision-making/ scenario planning approaches that better deal with deep uncertainty

• Better understanding of business models (eg., urban logistics) and barriers to fast adoption of smart solutions (stds, policy/regulatory constraints)

• Continued development of transport products that are highly competitive, less polluting and tailored to increasing customers’ expectations

• Better understanding of determinants of behavior to foster behavior changes in support of the goals of “sustainable mobility for all”

Some research areas to support sustainable mobility

50

World Bank and the transport research communitySome examples of joint work/collaboration include:• Making qualitative data available to enable external research

– Impact of Rural Accessibility improvements in Peru, with GRADE– “IeConnect for Impact” with DIME and participating research institutions– Evidence-based research under WB’s/DEC Strategic Research Program (SRP): eg.,

logistics, resilience of transport networks, transport and poverty reduction• Developing new methodologies, joint innovative products

– Burden of disease and road safety (Institute for Health Metrics and Evaluation);– Road Traffic Injuries Research Network to improve research capacity in LICs – Wider Economic Impacts of High-Speed Rail in China with Economic Planning and

Research Institute in China and Cambridge University; – Open Transit Indicator tool with China Academy of Transport Science, MIT

• Partnering with academia/think tanks in knowledge sharing and capacity building programs– LUTP (Singapore Land Transport Academy, KOTI, Academy Mayors China,

various universities and think tanks in more than 15 countries– Transform initiative, China– Transforming Transportation Conference with WRI; TRB, COTA

• Engagements in WB’s analytical work that leads to research papers