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SESSION 5_Rob Dellink_ Climate change- CIRCLE workshop Oct. 2014
Citation preview
IMPACTS OF
CLIMATE CHANGE:
CONSEQUENCES FOR ECONOMIC
GROWTH
Rob Dellink
Environment Directorate, OECD
CIRCLE Ad-hoc expert workshop
Paris, 3 October 2014
• 1st results published
– Economics Department Working Paper
– Used in OECD@100 and NAEC reports
• Continued support from EPOC
– Request to further improve analysis
– Request to prepare report in time for COP21
2
Current status: climate change
Climate change impacts and damages
• Coastal land losses and damages to capital
Sea level rise
• Changes in mortality & morbidity and demand for healthcare
Health
• Changes in productivity of production sectors
Ecosystems
• Changes in agricultural productivity
Crop yields
• Changes in productivity of tourism services
Tourism flows
• Changes in the demand for energy from cooling and heating
Energy demand
• Changes in catchment
Fisheries
• Extreme weather events, water stress, catastrophic risks, …
Not included
3
-4.0%
-3.5%
-3.0%
-2.5%
-2.0%
-1.5%
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
Global GDP impacts (% change wrt no-damages baseline)
Likely uncertainty rangeequilibrium climate sensitivity (1.5°C - 4.5°C)
4
Global assessment
-4.0%
-3.5%
-3.0%
-2.5%
-2.0%
-1.5%
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
Global GDP impacts (% change wrt no-damages baseline)
Likely uncertainty rangeequilibrium climate sensitivity (1.5°C - 4.5°C)
Wider uncertainty rangeequilibrium climate sensitivity (1°C - 6°C)
Central projection
-4.0%
-3.5%
-3.0%
-2.5%
-2.0%
-1.5%
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060
Global GDP impacts (% change wrt no-damages baseline)
Likely uncertainty rangeequilibrium climate sensitivity (1.5°C - 4.5°C)
Wider uncertainty rangeequilibrium climate sensitivity (1°C - 6°C)
Central projection
Source: Dellink et al (2014)
5
Stylised analysis post-2060
-9%
-8%
-7%
-6%
-5%
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Global damages as percentage of GDP
Likely uncertainty range (Business as Usual)
Likely uncertainty range (Committed by 2060)
Central projection (Business as Usual)
Central projection (Committed by 2060)
Central projection (highly nonlinear damages)-9%
-8%
-7%
-6%
-5%
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Global damages as percentage of GDP
Likely uncertainty range (Business as Usual)
Likely uncertainty range (Committed by 2060)
Central projection (Business as Usual)
Central projection (Committed by 2060)
Central projection (highly nonlinear damages)-9%
-8%
-7%
-6%
-5%
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
Global damages as percentage of GDP
Likely uncertainty range (Business as Usual)
Likely uncertainty range (Committed by 2060)
Central projection (Business as Usual)
Central projection (Committed by 2060)
Central projection (highly nonlinear damages)
Source: Dellink et al (2014)
6
Regional results (central projection)
Source: Dellink et al (2014)
-6%
-5%
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
1%
2%
OECD America OECD Europe OECD Pacific Rest of Europe
and Asia
Latin America Middle East &
North Africa
South & South- East Asia
Sub-Saharan
Africa
World
Global GDP impact (% change wrt no - damages baseline, 2060)
Agriculture
Sea level rise
Tourism
Health
Ecosystems
Energy
Fisheries
Preliminary analysis of benefits of policy
action
• Assessment of benefits of policy action require insight into stream of future avoided damages
– Not straightforward to assess with ENV-Linkages
– Lack of sectoral adaptation information is also an issue
• As first step, use the AD-RICE model which is especially suited for this (as perfect foresight model)
– AD-RICE is an augmented version of Nordhaus’ RICE model, with explicit representation of adaptation
• Look at both adaptation and mitigation policies, and their interactions
7
8
Preliminary results: adaptation policies
Preliminary results; not to be cited or quoted
-10%
-9%
-8%
-7%
-6%
-5%
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
% change wrt no-damage baseline
Likely uncertainty range - Optimal adaptation Central projection - Optimal adaptation
Central projection - Flow adaptation Central projection - No adaptation
-10%
-9%
-8%
-7%
-6%
-5%
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
% change wrt no-damage baseline
Likely uncertainty range - No adaptation Central projection - Optimal adaptation
Central projection - Flow adaptation Central projection - No adaptation
-10%
-9%
-8%
-7%
-6%
-5%
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
% change wrt no-damage baseline
Likely uncertainty range - Flow adaptation Central projection - Optimal adaptation
Central projection - Flow adaptation Central projection - No adaptation
9
Preliminary results: mitigation policies
Preliminary results; not to be cited or quoted
-10%
-9%
-8%
-7%
-6%
-5%
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
% change wrt no-damage baselineLikely uncertainty range - No mitigation Likely uncertainty range - Optimal mitigation
Central projection - No mitigation Central projection - Optimal mitigation
Weitzman damage function - No mitigation Weitzman damage function - Optimal mitigation
-10%
-9%
-8%
-7%
-6%
-5%
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
% change wrt no-damage baselineLikely uncertainty range - No mitigation Likely uncertainty range - Optimal mitigation
Central projection - No mitigation Central projection - Optimal mitigation
Weitzman damage function - No mitigation Weitzman damage function - Optimal mitigation
-10%
-9%
-8%
-7%
-6%
-5%
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
% change wrt no-damage baselineLikely uncertainty range - No mitigation Likely uncertainty range - Optimal mitigation
Central projection - No mitigation Central projection - Optimal mitigation
Weitzman damage function - No mitigation Weitzman damage function - Optimal mitigation
10
Preliminary results: discounting
Preliminary results; not to be cited or quoted
-2.5%
-2.0%
-1.5%
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
% change wrt no-damage baseline
Likely uncertainty range - Nordhaus discounting Central projection - Nordhaus discounting
Central projection - UK Treasury discounting Central projection - Stern discounting
-2.5%
-2.0%
-1.5%
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
% change wrt no-damage baseline
Likely uncertainty range - Stern discounting Central projection - Nordhaus discounting
Central projection - UK Treasury discounting Central projection - Stern discounting
-2.5%
-2.0%
-1.5%
-1.0%
-0.5%
0.0%
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
% change wrt no-damage baseline
Likely uncertainty range - UK Treasury discounting Central projection - Nordhaus discounting
Central projection - UK Treasury discounting Central projection - Stern discounting
11
Preliminary results: interactions
Preliminary results; not to be cited or quoted
-10%
-9%
-8%
-7%
-6%
-5%
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
% change wrt no-damage baseline
Optimal adaptation - No mitigation Optimal adaptation - Optimal mitigationFlow adaptation - No mitigation Flow adaptation - Optimal mitigationNo adaptation - No mitigation No adaptation - Optimal mitigation
-10%
-9%
-8%
-7%
-6%
-5%
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
% change wrt no-damage baseline
Optimal adaptation - No mitigation Optimal adaptation - Optimal mitigationFlow adaptation - No mitigation Flow adaptation - Optimal mitigationNo adaptation - No mitigation No adaptation - Optimal mitigation
-10%
-9%
-8%
-7%
-6%
-5%
-4%
-3%
-2%
-1%
0%
2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2060 2070 2080 2090 2100
% change wrt no-damage baseline
Optimal adaptation - No mitigation Optimal adaptation - Optimal mitigationFlow adaptation - No mitigation Flow adaptation - Optimal mitigationNo adaptation - No mitigation No adaptation - Optimal mitigation
How to expand the list of impacts that
are covered?
• Extreme precipitation events – Floods, hurricanes
• Extreme temperature events – Heatwaves
• Water stress – But impacts on agriculture already largely included
• Large-scale disruptions – Shut-down of Gulf Stream, collapse of West-Antarctic
ice sheet
• Other discontinuities and tipping points
12
• Q4 2014 / Q1 2015 – Finalise expanded baseline – Revise agricultural impacts – Carry out stand-alone assessment of the literature on
some of the major missing impacts (incl. heatwaves) – Finalise first stylised assessment of benefits of action – Updated report available in time for COP21
• Rest of 2015 – Develop policy simulations in ENV-Linkages – Carry out integrated policy analysis for climate change
and air pollution – If possible extend the range of impacts covered in the
analysis
13
Timeline
THANK YOU!
For more information:
www.oecd.org/environment/CIRCLE.htm
www.oecd.org/environment/modelling