Gwinnett County Real Estate Market Report 3 09

© 2008 Lane BaileyGarageHomesUSA.com

Gwinnett County Real Gwinnett County Real Estate Market ReportEstate Market Report

MarchMarchJanuary – February 09January – February 09


January Numbers - UpdatedJanuary Numbers - Updated

• 1953 New Listings1953 New Listings

• 370 Sold Listings370 Sold Listings

• 588 Listings Pending588 Listings Pending

• Average 106 Days on Market Average 106 Days on Market for Sold Listingsfor Sold Listings


January Numbers - FinalJanuary Numbers - Final

*Listings Pending may have closed in *Listings Pending may have closed in January, may have closed in January, may have closed in February, may close in some other February, may close in some other month, or may fail to close. But, there month, or may fail to close. But, there IS overlap with Sold Listings.IS overlap with Sold Listings.


February Numbers - PreliminaryFebruary Numbers - Preliminary

• 1491 New Listings1491 New Listings

• 290 Sold Listings290 Sold Listings

• 566 Listings Pending566 Listings Pending

• Average 100 Days on Market Average 100 Days on Market for Sold Listingsfor Sold Listings


February Numbers - PreliminaryFebruary Numbers - Preliminary

*While all of these numbers are subject *While all of these numbers are subject to revision next month, the Sold to revision next month, the Sold Listings tend to have the most radical Listings tend to have the most radical revision. I am estimating 450 closed revision. I am estimating 450 closed sales for February. I was quite off, sales for February. I was quite off, predicting 475 for January and only predicting 475 for January and only having 370 successfully close.having 370 successfully close.


Days on Market (DoM)Days on Market (DoM)

DoM

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

7-Mar

7-Apr

7-May

7-Jun

7-Jul 7-Aug

7-Sep

7-Oct

7-Nov

7-Dec

8-Jan

8-Feb

8-Mar

8-Apr

8-May

8-Jun

8-Jul 8-Aug

8-Sep

8-Oct

8-Nov

8-Dec

9-Jan

9-Feb

Date

Days


ConclusionsConclusions

• Final for January is 106. Final for January is 106.

• I was looking for the under 100… I was looking for the under 100… preliminary was 101 days. preliminary was 101 days.

• For February, preliminary is 100. For February, preliminary is 100.

• I would really like to see numbers get I would really like to see numbers get under 90 in February. I don’t expect it.under 90 in February. I don’t expect it.


New, Pending & Sold ListingsNew, Pending & Sold Listings

New, Pending, Sold

0

500

1000

1500

2000

2500

3000

3500

7-Mar

7-Apr 7-May

7-Jun 7-Jul 7-Aug

7-Sep

7-Oct

7-Nov

7-Dec

8-Jan 8-Feb

8-Mar

8-Apr 8-May

8-Jun 8-Jul 8-Aug

8-Sep

8-Oct

8-Nov

8-Dec

9-Jan 9-Feb

Date

Vo

lum

e

New Pending Sold


January Absorption RatesJanuary Absorption Rates

7718 Listings on the market in Gwinnett 7718 Listings on the market in Gwinnett County at the end of Dec, and sales County at the end of Dec, and sales averaged over 12, 6 and 3 month periods.averaged over 12, 6 and 3 month periods.

• 12 month average: 13.1 months inventory12 month average: 13.1 months inventory




February Absorption RatesFebruary Absorption Rates

7718 Listings on the market in Gwinnett 7718 Listings on the market in Gwinnett County at the end of Jan., and sales County at the end of Jan., and sales averaged over 12, 6 and 3 month periods.averaged over 12, 6 and 3 month periods.





ConclusionsConclusions

• Jan. final numbers showed sales down Jan. final numbers showed sales down 10% from 2008. Also important, 28.8% 10% from 2008. Also important, 28.8% more homes went under contract in Dec. more homes went under contract in Dec. that closed in January. This means that 3 that closed in January. This means that 3 in 10 contracts may have failed.in 10 contracts may have failed.

• There is still a long way to go. 6 months of There is still a long way to go. 6 months of supply is considered balanced. No matter supply is considered balanced. No matter how you slice it we are 2-3 times that.how you slice it we are 2-3 times that.


New/Sold RatioNew/Sold Ratio

This ratio compares new listings This ratio compares new listings and sold listings for a given and sold listings for a given month. It is useful to sellers in month. It is useful to sellers in determining a pricing strategy.determining a pricing strategy.



• In Jan., 19% as many homes sold as In Jan., 19% as many homes sold as were listed during the month. This were listed during the month. This means that on average, for each 10 means that on average, for each 10 homes that were put up for sale, 2 homes that were put up for sale, 2 sold. I thought we would get to 30%.sold. I thought we would get to 30%.

• In Feb., early numbers point to 19% In Feb., early numbers point to 19% (1:5), and I only expect to see that (1:5), and I only expect to see that upgrade to 30% for the final numbers. upgrade to 30% for the final numbers.



New/Sold Ratio

0

5

10

15

20

25

30

35

40

45

Dec Jan Feb March April May June July August Sept. Oct. Nov. Dec. Jan. Feb.

Date

% V

alu

e


ConclusionConclusion

• The weakness of the N/S% shows The weakness of the N/S% shows that few homes are priced attractively that few homes are priced attractively to Buyers.to Buyers.

• This number tops around 67%This number tops around 67%

• Anything under 33% is very weak.Anything under 33% is very weak.

• I expect there to be a seasonal “pop” I expect there to be a seasonal “pop” for Dec. and a fizzle for January.for Dec. and a fizzle for January.


Average Sales PriceAverage Sales Price

• Jan. - $181,501 Down 18.9% from Jan. - $181,501 Down 18.9% from January 2008January 2008

• Feb. - $181,937 Down 25.5% from Feb. - $181,937 Down 25.5% from February 2008February 2008

• The Sept. numbers showed an average The Sept. numbers showed an average under $200k for the first time since I under $200k for the first time since I started keeping track in January 2005, but started keeping track in January 2005, but it has bounced back… until January. We’ll it has bounced back… until January. We’ll have to see the finals.have to see the finals.


Average Sales PriceAverage Sales Price

Average prices may be volatile, Average prices may be volatile, affected by strong or weak sales affected by strong or weak sales of homes priced in particular of homes priced in particular ranges.ranges.

This number doesn’t really give an This number doesn’t really give an indication of market direction indication of market direction except in the broadest sense.except in the broadest sense.


List Price/Sales Price RatioList Price/Sales Price Ratio• January – 94.01%January – 94.01%• February – 93.51%February – 93.51%• Over the last few years Sale Prices Over the last few years Sale Prices

generally held between 97% and 98.5% generally held between 97% and 98.5% of List. We’ve been under 96% since of List. We’ve been under 96% since June ’08.June ’08.

• Honestly, though, this isn’t a huge Honestly, though, this isn’t a huge indicator of the market, but it does show indicator of the market, but it does show “Seller Capitulation.”“Seller Capitulation.”


ConclusionConclusion

• List/Sale Price % gives an List/Sale Price % gives an indication of Buyer strength. indication of Buyer strength.

• It also shows whether Sellers are It also shows whether Sellers are being realistic with pricing.being realistic with pricing.

• The indications are also very The indications are also very general.general.


Overall Conclusion

• Right now my big concern is “Pendings Right now my big concern is “Pendings Failures”. They have been running 3-4 Failures”. They have been running 3-4 times what it was just a few months ago times what it was just a few months ago (except December).(except December).

• Last year I was calling for a 2Last year I was calling for a 2ndnd Quarter Quarter recovery in Gwinnett, but I think we might recovery in Gwinnett, but I think we might just skip along the bottom for a few just skip along the bottom for a few months.months.


Overall ConclusionsOverall Conclusions

• September being up in sales was important, but September being up in sales was important, but not conclusive. It was against a weak month last not conclusive. It was against a weak month last year.year.

• I don’t think we are seeing the recovery yet. We I don’t think we are seeing the recovery yet. We might be on the bottom, but can’t really know might be on the bottom, but can’t really know that until later in the spring.that until later in the spring.

• There are some great deals, and there are some There are some great deals, and there are some dogs. The key is finding the right deals.dogs. The key is finding the right deals.

• Keeping perspective, sales are cyclical. This is Keeping perspective, sales are cyclical. This is a good time for investment… not a great time to a good time for investment… not a great time to sell without a strategy.sell without a strategy.


Overall ConclusionsOverall Conclusions

• I think that we will see some weakness in I think that we will see some weakness in the numbers over the next couple of the numbers over the next couple of months, possibly due to the Credit Crisis.months, possibly due to the Credit Crisis.

• I really want to see more of the Pending I really want to see more of the Pending Sales make it to the closing table. Sales make it to the closing table.

• March-May will be pivotal in the Atlanta March-May will be pivotal in the Atlanta area market. Spring is the strong season. area market. Spring is the strong season.

• I still think that if we aren’t AT the bottom, I still think that if we aren’t AT the bottom, we can see it from here.we can see it from here.