2014 A NEW FOCUS ON EARTHQUAKE PREPAREDNESS AND RESPONSE Part 1 of 2 Parts

2014A NEW FOCUS ON EARTHQUAKE PREPAREDNESS AND RESPONSE

Part 1 of 2 Parts

THE OBJECTIVE OF THIS PRESENTATION IS TO

FACILITATE PLANNING FOR THE 3rd WORLD CONFEENCE

TO BE CONVENED IN JAPAN IN 2015

THE PERSPECTIVE IS THE USA, BUT IT CAN BE

CHANGED TO THAT OF ANOTHER NATION BY SUBSTITUTING THE

APPROPRIATE PICTURES AND INFORMATION

YOUR YOUR

COMMUNITYCOMMUNITYDATA BASES DATA BASES AND INFORMATIONAND INFORMATION

HAZARDS: GROUND SHAKING GROUND FAILURE SURFACE FAULTING TECTONIC DEFORMATION TSUNAMI RUN UP AFTERSHOCKS

•MONITORING•HAZARD MAPS•INVENTORY•VULNERABILITY•LOCATION

RISK

ACCEPTABLE RISK

UNACCEPTABLE RISK

BOOKS OF KNOWLEDGE BOOKS OF KNOWLEDGE

•PREPAREDNESS•PROTECTION•EM RESPONSE•RECOSTRUCTION AND RECOVERY

EARTHQUAKE DISASTER EARTHQUAKE DISASTER RESILIENCERESILIENCE

PREPAREDNESS AND

EMERGENCY RESPONSE ARE ESSENTIAL PILLARS OF

EARTHQUIAKE DISASTER RESILIENCE

THE GOALTHE GOAL

DEMANDS ON DEMANDS ON COMMUNITYCOMMUNITY

EARTHQUAKE DISASTER EARTHQUAKE DISASTER RESILIENCE:RESILIENCE:

CAPABILITIES OF CAPABILITIES OF COMMUNITYCOMMUNITY

REALITYREALITY

UNANTICIPATED UNANTICIPATED DEMANDS ON DEMANDS ON COMMUNITYCOMMUNITY

LACK OF EARTHQUAKE LACK OF EARTHQUAKE PREPAREDNESSPREPAREDNESS

INSUFFICIENT INSUFFICIENT PREPAREDNESS OF PREPAREDNESS OF

COMMUNITYCOMMUNITY

REALITYREALITY

URGENT DEMANDS ON URGENT DEMANDS ON COMMUNITYCOMMUNITY

LACK OF EMERGENCY LACK OF EMERGENCY RESPONSE CAPABILITYRESPONSE CAPABILITY

INSUFFICIENT INSUFFICIENT CAPABILITY TO CAPABILITY TO RESPOND TO RESPOND TO DEMANDS ON DEMANDS ON COMMUNITYCOMMUNITY

WHAT IS EARTHQUAKE PREPAREDNESS?

Preparedness is a state of readiness on individual, urban, sub-regional, and national

scales that is sufficient to keep the expected and unexpected effects of an

earthquake from causing a disaster

ANTICIPATION IS THE KEY TO PREPAREDNESS

• STRONG GROUND SHAKING• TSUNAMI WAVE RUNUP• LIQUEFACTION• LANDSLIDES• AFTERSHOCKS• VULNERABILITIES

STRONG GROUND SHAKING

GROUND SHAKING CAUSES SOCIAL AND ECONOMIC LOSSES

AS COMMUNITY PREPAREDNESS INCREASES,

SO DOES PROTECTION OF BUILDINGS AND CRITICAL

INFRASTRUCTURE

WHAT IS PROTECTION?

(Protection is a legally mandated state of planning and verified robustness, strength,

and ductility for important buildings and essential - critical infrastructure

to prevent loss of function

WHAT IS EMERGENCY RESPONSE

(Emergency Response is All of the scripted and unscripted

heroic and historic responses during the “race against time” after a quake

to save lives and protect property

KEY ELEMENTS OF PREPAREDNESS

KNOW YOUR SEISMIC ACTIVITY (i.e., SEISMICITY)

KNOW YOUR FAULT ZONESKNOW YOUR VULNERABILITIES

PACIFIC RING OF FIRE

• PRONE TO EARTHQUAKES AND TSUNAMIS

EARTHQUAKES

FAULTS

STATES WITH THE MOST EATHQUAKE ACTIVITY

THE USA’S MOST NOTABLE PLATE BOUNDARY FAULT ZONE

• SAN ANDREAS FAULT• 600 MILES LONG• SOURCE OF M8

EARTHQUAKES IN 1847 AND 1906

THE USA’S OTHER NOTABLE PLATE BOUNDARY FAULT ZONE

• THE JUAN DE FUCA PLATE• SUBDUCTING

BENEATH WASHINGTON AND OREGON; • POTENTIAL FOR

M9.0

ONE O F THE USA’S TWO NOTABLE INTRA-PLATE FAULT ZONES

• WASATCH FAULT (UTAH)• 250 MILES LONG• POTENTIAL

SOURCE OF M7.0-7.5 EARTHQUAKES

ONE O F THE USA’S TWO NOTABLE INTRA-PLATE FAULT ZONES

• NEW MADRID SEISMIC ZONE• SOURCE OF

FOUR M8 EARTHQUAKES IN 1811--1812

PREPAREADNESS AND EM. RESPONSE IN A

COMMUNITY INCREASE AS THE COMMUNITY’S CAPABILITY TO

ANTICIPATE WHAT WILL HAPPEN

INCREASES

EXAMPLES OF FACTORS THAT NEED TO BE ANTICIPATED FOR STATE-OF-THE-ART

PREPAREDNESS PLANNING

SAN FRANCISCO: WHAT NEEDS TO BE ANTICIPATED?

• HOW LIKELY IS A DAMAGING EARTHQUAKE TO OCCUR?

• WHERE AND WHEN WILL IT OCCUR?

• HOW BIG WILL IT BE?• HOW STRONG WILL ITS

POTENTIAL DISASTER AGENTS BE?

WHAT NEEDS TO BE ANTICIPATED (Continued)?

• WHAT KINDS OF BUILDINGS ARE AT RISK?

• WHAT KINDS OF BASIC, ESSENTIAL, AND CRITICAL INFRA-STRUCTURE ARE AT RISK?

• WHAT ARE THEIR PHYSICAL VUL-NERABILITIES

WHAT NEEDS TO BE ANTICIPATED (Continued)?

• WHAT ARE THE SOCIAL VULNERABILITIES

• WHAT IS THE LIKELY DAMAGE DISTRIBUTION?

• WHAT ARE THE LIKELY CASUALTIES, SOCIO-ECONOMIC, AND ENVIRONMENTAL IMPACTS?

ANCHORAGE, AK: WHAT NEEDS TO BE ANTICIPATED?





SEATTLE, WA: WHAT NEEDS TO BE ANTICIPATED?





LOS ANGELES: WHAT NEEDS TO BE ANTICIPATED?





ALASKA, WASHINGTON, OREGON, CALIF., PUERTO RICO

HOW BIG WILL THE TSUNAMI WAVE RUN UP BE?

SAN JUAN, PR: WHAT NEEDS TO BE ANTICIPATED?





SALT LAKE CITY: WHAT NEEDS TO BE ANTICIPATED?





MEMPHIS,TN: WHAT NEEDS TO BE ANTICIPATED?





EVERY TIME AN EARTHQUAKE DISASTER OCCURS, WE HAVE NEW

KNOWLEDGE TO ADD TO OUR “BOOKS OF KNOWLEDGE” ON

EMERGENCY RESPONSE

NOTE:EM. RESPONSE IS HIGHLY

POLITICAL, SOONGOING COMMUNICATIONS WITH

NUMEROUS PUBLICS THROUGH PRESS CONFERENCES AND THE

MEDIA WILL BE NEEDED

SITUATIONS ENCOUNTERED DURING EM. RESPONSE

• DAMAGE; DEBRIS• COLLAPSE• TRAPPED

SURVIVORS• SEARCH AND

RESCUE CLOCK• FIRE• INUNDATION

• EVACUATION CENTERS

• EM. MEDICAL• MASS CARE • HAZ MAT

RELEASE• INJURIES• DEATHS

KEY ELEMENTS OF EMERGENCY RESPONSE

• HISTORIC RESPONSES: The professional and non-professional responders will be making history for at least forty-eight hours (a “place holder” for the intense period of search and rescue operations) and thirty days (a “place holder” for the intense time of the “no room for error” decisions) that must be made.

KEY ELEMENTS OF EMERGENCY RESPONSE

• HEROIC RESPONSES: The professional and non-professional responders will be working at the margins of their capability for at least twenty-four hours and twenty-one days.

EXAMPLES OF HISTORIC EMERGENCY RESPONSE

SITUATIONS

EXAMPLE: 240,000 DEAD WITHIN A FEW MINUTES

• TANGSHAN, CHINA (1976) EARTHQUAKE: Centered beneath the city, the earthquake caused the impossible situation; too late for a race against time” to save lives and protect property.

EXAMPLE: 230,000 DEAD IN TSUNAMI

• INDONESIA (2004): The impossible situation thirty minutes after the quake; too late for a race against time” to save lives.

EXAMPLE: 88,000 DEAD; 50 MILLION BUILDINGS DAMAGED IN MINUTES

• CHINA (2008): • The impossible

situation; too late for a race against time” to save lives and protect property.

EXAMPLE: 220,000 DEAD WITHIN A FEW MINUTES

• HAITI (2010): • The impossible


EXAMPLE: 30,000 DEAD WITHIN THIRTY MINUTES FROM THE TSUNAMI

• JAPAN (2011): • The impossible


EXAMPLE: SEARCH AND RESCUE

• TURKEY (1999) KOCALEI EARTH-QUAKE):

• Timely responses during a forty-eight hour “race against time” to save lives and protect property

EXAMPLE: DAMAGE TO SCHOOL

• ALASKA (1964): Timely search and rescue during a forty-eight hour “race against time” to save lives and protect property

EXAMPLE: DAMAGE FROM TSUNAMI WAVE RUN UP

• ALASKA (1964): • Timely responses

during a thirty day “race against time” to save lives and protect property

EXAMPLE: LIQIEFACTION

• NIIGATA, JAPAN (1964):

• Timely responses during a thirty day “race against time” to save lives and protect property

EXAMPLE: COLLAPSE OF HIGH-RISE APARTMENT BUILDINGS

• MEXICO CITY AFTER 1985 EARTHQUAKE: Timely responses during a forty-eight hour and thirty day “race against time” save lives and protect property

EXAMPLE: LOSS OF FUNCTION OF ELEVATED HIGHWAY; DEATHS

• LOMA PRIETO, CA (1989): • Timely responses

during a forty-eight hour and thirty day “race against time” to save lives and protect property

EXAMPLE: LOSS OF FUNCTION AND COMMUTING CAPABILITY

• LOMA PRIETA, CA EARTHQUAKE (1989):


EXAMPLE: LOSS OF FUNCTION

• NORTHRIDGE, CA (1994):


EXAMPLE: LOSS OF FUNCTION OF ELEVATED EXPRESSWAY (NO DEATHS)

• KOBE, JAPAN (1995): “The forty-eight hour and thirty day “race against time” to save lives and protect property.

EXAMPLE: 600 FIRES

• KOBE, JAPAN (1995): “The race against time” to save lives and protect property.

CONCLUSIONEVERY TIME AN EARTHQUAKE

DISASTER OCCURS, WE HAVE NEW KNOWLEDGE TO ADD TO OUR

“BOOKS OF KNOWLEDGE” TO BE USED WHEN ANTICIPATING

FUTURE IMPACTS

2014A NEW FOCUS ON

EARTHQUAKE PREPAREDNESS AND RESPONSE

Continued as Part 2

Science

2014 A NEW FOCUS ON EARTHQUAKE PREPAREDNESS AND RESPONSE Part 1 of 2 Parts