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Agrobiodiversity and climate change:a new role for scienceJacob van EttenNovember 2016
Climate change
Climate change
Origin of agriculture
DroughtDrought
tolerance
Drought
Heat
Drought tolerance
Heat tolerance
Climate change
Real-time, one shot
Climate Change: Challenge to Science
Science
Trial and error
Climate change
Real-time, one shot
Multiple views, values, interpretations, uncertainty
Climate Change: Challenge to Science
Science
Trial and error
Optimizing well-defined solutions
Climate change
Real-time, one shot
Multiple views, values, interpretations, uncertainty
Multiple dimensions, trade-offs
Climate Change: Challenge to Science
Science
Trial and error
Optimizing well-defined solutions
Ceteris paribus, isolate problem as strategy
Climate change
Real-time, one shot
Multiple views, interpretations, uncertainty
Multiple dimensions, trade-offs
Climate Change: Challenge to Science
Science
Trial and error
Optimizing well-defined solutions
Ceteris paribus, isolate problem as strategy
Diversity
Aspects of a Solution
Design solutions with science in supporting role – inject science into real-time workflows
Work with diversity rather than averages and trends – “science of the individual”
Example 1
Working with Household Diversity
Household Diversity
Farm performance scores for large and small farm types (LF and SF), practising high and low farm intensification (HI and LI), crop diversification (HD and LD) and market orientation (HM and LM) for Lushoto, Tanzania. Abbreviations: FA is Food Availability, HFIAS is the Household Food Insecurity Access Scale, HDDS is the Household Diet Diversity Score, PPI is Progress out of Poverty Index.
Trade-off analysis
RHoMIS
Easy to use and interpret – facilitate discussion
Benchmarking and comparisons possible
Multiple indicators: trade-offs (adaptation vs. mitigation, etc.)
Monitoring tool for NGOs, banks, state agencies, etc.
Example 2
Impl
emen
tatio
n
“Citizen science is scientific research conducted, in whole or in part, by amateur or nonprofessional scientists.”“(also known as crowd science, crowdsourced science, civic science or networked science)”
Wikipedia
Citizen Science
“Crowdsourcing is the process of obtaining needed services, ideas, or content by soliciting contributions from a large group of people, and especially from an online community, rather than from traditional employees or suppliers.”
Wikipedia
Crowdsourcing
A
B
C
Triadic Comparisons of Technologies (tricot)
12
Experimentation is done individually
Each farmer receives a different combination of three varieties
Communication Material
Digital Platform
Accuracy of Farmer Observations
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
NoneOneTwoThree
Number of differences with expert
Tests in Honduras with 35 farmers (Steinke et al. under review)
Example of ResultsNicaragua bean trials (Van Etten et al., Experimental Agriculture)
Farmer Citizen Science for Adaptation
Injection of varietal diversity boosts adaptation directly through seed availability and better-adapted varieties
Diversity in growing environments in a single year (planting dates, soils, rainfall) can be exploited with big data to make predictions
Farmers themselves compare across sites and learn from directly observed spatial patterns
In Summary…
Data-intensive approaches address the climate challenge from a diversity perspective
Massive digital participation accelerates human learning for climate action
What is the motivation of participants and those who are supposed to take up science results?
More Information
RHoMIS.net Surveys on household diversity
ClimMob.net Farmer citizen science
Thank you
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@BioversityInt
Jacob van [email protected]
@jacobvanetten
