0417 Why and How 21st Century's Agriculture Should be Different from 20th Century Agriculture

1. Why and How 21st Century Agriculture Should Be Different from 20th Century Agriculture Rice Experimental Station, INCA, Los Palacios, Cuba July 9, 2004 Norman Uphoff Cornell International Institute for Food,Agriculture and Development (CIIFAD)

Per capita food production , 1960-2000, increased by 30%

Real food pricesin constant terms decreased during this period by 48%

Agriculture was an engine of growth worldwide for over four decades

Industrywas supported by capital and labor generated/released by agriculture

Productivity gainsachieved with heavy use of external inputs areslowing down

Negative side-effectsare becomingmore evident -- environmental, social costs

Can we makefurther progressin the 21st century by doing more of the same ?

Doubtfulbecause ofdiminishing returns-- in cas of rice (K. Cassman et al., 1998) --a further60% increase in rice productionwe will require300% increase in N fertilizer

WATERis becomingscarcer , at least foragricultural uses - andcertainlyscarcer per capitaand inper areaterms -- lowerwater qualityis also a growing concern

Raising the productivity of LABOR is the key to national development and toreducing poverty

Can we do thisenvironmentally friendly ways ? SICA experience says YES (SI)

F ertilizers, pesticides, insecticides, fungicides, herbicides, etc. are now

-- givingdiminishing returnswhile-- creatingenvironmental hazards andhealth risks ,

with risingcosts of productionand

-- continuing problems ofefficacy

World GrainFertilizer Marginal

ProductionUse Response

(mmt)(mmt)Ratio

Decade Decade

1950631---14-----

1961 805(+174)31(+17) 10.2:1

1969-711116(+311) 68(+37) 8.4:1

1979-811442(+326) 116(+48) 6.7:1

1989-911732(+290) 140(+24)12.1:1

1999-011885(+153) 138(-2) ?

Rising Costs due to supply-demand dynamics for petroleum in future, also end to govt. subsidies?

Environmental and Health Hazardsare becoming more evident

Uncertain Efficacy chemical treadmill causedby resistance to chemicals-- run just to stay in place

US pesticide use up 14x since 1950, as crop losses increased from 7% to 13%

MorePRODUCTIVE in terms of :

LAND-- per unit area -- per ha or per acre

LABOR-- per hour or per day

WATER-- per cubic meter or per acre/ft

CAPITAL-- more profitable for investment

More ENVIRONMENTALLY BENIGN

More robust in face of CLIMATE CHANGE

More SOCIALLY BENEFICIAL

ACCESSIBLE to the poor, reducing poverty

Providing greater FOOD SECURITY

Contributing more to HUMAN HEALTH

Post-Modern Agriculture

one that ismore productiveandprofitable , while being moreenvironmentally benignand moresocially beneficial ,i.e.,a Green erRevolution

Is not like post-modernism in literature and humanities; doesnt reject modernity

P-M agriculture builds onsame scientific foundationsas does modern agriculture

It will be more fundamentally grounded inbiological science than current agriculture

Biotechnology is part of P-M agriculturebutagroecology is its basic foundation

Post-modern agriculture not backward --in fact, it is themost modernagriculture

Built on advances made inengineeringstarting in 18th century --farm implements and equipment, powered machinery

Also on knowledge fromchemistryfrom middle of 19th century -esp. fertilizers

20th century accelerated improvements made ingenetic potentials thru breeding

The basic approach was toincrease and improve theINPUTSmade in agriculture

Modern agriculture isENERGY-intensive -- reducing/displacinglaborat expense ofland

Productivity gainsare decreasing -- slowdown in yield increases since end of 1980s

Diminishing returnsto fertilizer and other inputs are raising farmerscosts of production-- evident decline in the productivity of inputs

Costs of inputsare rising assubsidiesare cut;petroleum pricesare likely to rise in future

Water availabilityfor agriculture is diminishing -- we need less thirsty methods of production

Adverse impactson environment and human healthare rising --agrochemicals , water quality

Fortunately, there arealternativesthat are

Scientifically sound , not just fads or fancy

Environmentally benign , or even enhancing

Profitableover time, some even immediately

Employment-generatingfor social welfare

More beneficial forhuman health

Useable at variousscales of production , and

Continuallyevolving and improving

as more becomes known about them, and

as more farmers and researchers work with them

Productivity and success in agriculture depend equally on THREE major factors:

GENETIC POTENTIAL-- the starting point

INPUTS-- from farmers and environment

MANAGEMENT-- by farmers to get best results from inputs and to deal with the environment, to create thebest fitamong genetic potential, inputs and environment -- do not overemphasize genetics

Yield increases of 50-100% or more:

Without changingvarieties

Without requiringchemical inputs(fertilizer and pesticides - not needed)

Using about 50% as muchwaterand only 10-20% as muchseed

Also get highergrain quality

Get more productive PHENOTYPES by changing management practices

Potential already existing in genome

Do not get same results every timebecause this is biology, not industry

Biology gives widely varying results -- SRI =Ein theG x Eequation

Not same results every time --look to soiland not just to genes (only potential)

SRI has potential to change agriculture in the 21st century, because of what we arelearningfrom it

(A) TheirROOTSgrow larger and deeper when the plants have been

transplanted carefully ,without trauma, [tho direct seeding is option] , and there is

wider spacing between plants, giving canopies and roots more room and light

(B) They grow better inSOIL that is kept

well aerated , with abundant and diverse

soil microbial populations and fauna

A different view ofSOIL,stressing itslifeand itshealth-- do not regard soil as aninert repositoryfor seeds, fertilizer, etc.

An appreciation ofMICROORGANISMSand other SOIL BIOTA -- as creators and maintainers ofsoil fertility-- performing many functions for plant growth/health

Greater attention is paid to plantROOTS as thefoundationfor agricultural success

Plants and soil organisms havecoevolvedfor several hundred million years

This ignores the all-importantCONTEXT ofinteractionsamongplants , amongsoil organisms , betweenplants and soil organisms , and of these withanimals

AGROECOLOGYcaptures the benefits ofsynergyamong these various organisms, capitalizing on thepotentials of their existing genomesas they interact with their environments to producephenotypes

(A)GREEN REVOLUTION- to raise yields:

Change genotypeto make organisms more responsive to increased inputs

Providemore inputs

(B)SRI- neither of these is necessary, just:

Increase the growth ofroot systems , and

Promote more abundant and diversesoil microbial populations and fauna

LESS CAN PRODUCE MORE by utilizing thepotentials and dynamics of biology:

Smaller, younger seedlings becomelarger, more productive mature plants

Fewer plants per hill and per m 2can givemore yieldunder SRI growing conditions

Half the water can give agreater yieldand

Increased outputis achieved withfewer or no external inputs -- feed the soil > plant

Get newphenotypesfrom existinggenotypes

The microbial flora causes a large number of biochemical changes in the soil thatlargely determine the fertility of the soil. (DeDatta, 1981, p. 60, emphasis added)

Biological N fixation (BNF)

P solubilization(also other nutrients)

Mycorrhizal fungi(water and nutrients)

Protozoan grazing

Phytohormone production

Plant protection(induced systemic resistance, etc.)

Other biological functions ???

Biologically based and driven-- less tied to industrial models of agriculture

Ecological perspective-- not one species at a time (agroecology)

Less dependenton external inputs, benefit from biological processes

Farmer participationpart of process of innovation (partners > beneficiaries)

Technology

0417 Why and How 21st Century's Agriculture Should be Different from 20th Century Agriculture