Quixoticity Index 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development

Peter ClemonsFounder, Quixoticity

CCMENA 2017Dubai World Trade Centre

September 25, 2017

10/8/2017 1

The world we knew…

• A fundamentally physical world• Nation-states with strong identities• Stable democracies – moderate right/left

parties• Well-functioning labour markets• Stable central bank-controlled currencies• Humans in control of siloed socio-technical

systems• Voice communications with a bit of data• Separation of comms & IT networks

…in flux, ripped apart…

• Increase of digital/virtual assets• Increasingly radical online communities• Rise of terror, climate change• Brexit, Trump v Kim Yong-un (The Rocket Men),

ISIS, Fake News• Increasing poverty in lands of plenty• Properly funded public services v philanthropy• Financial/monetary turmoil• Human v artificial intelligence• All-IP, best-effort communications

…heading towards a new world order

• A 5G Era by 2030?• Things become smart (IoT)• Rise of Asia – population shifts & a new

economic order• New “trusted/trustless” institutions• New business models• New forms of value• New services delivered by a new global

internetwork fabric• All communications becomes critical

(©Quixoticity – 2012!)

Sustainable Development Goals 2030

The new economics

• Production, Retail, Consumption, Logistics –the blurring of categories

• Everything-as-a-service• Regulating a virtual market-place• Security, privacy, public safety, identity,

integrity, trust• Cryptocurrencies & blockchain• Funding/financing public services• The end of GDP as a useful metric• Collaborative/shared/circular economies

transform the “capitalist” mode of production

The new society

• Smart/Safe Cities• Responsive Governance• Transparent delivery of services• “The end of work”• The need for a new sense of purpose• Everything that can be automated will be• The emergence of self-regulating systems• Multiple identities & ways of “being-human”

in societies of multiple forms of intelligence

The new infrastructure• The 5G Era fully evolved by 2030• More streamlined, efficient, multi-layered

internetworking fabric(s) (inc. IoT, sensors/actuators for “real things”

• Cloudification, softwarisation, virtualisation, SDN/NFV/MANO/VM/containers/microservices

• Next-Generation Protocols (mobile, secure & private-by-design/as required)

• Intelligent Transport Systems (ITS)• SmartGrids for basic service delivery• Fully automated, self-healing, self-correcting

systems• What needs to be done NOW to give us all a

chance of surviving “a turbulent decade”?• Do the conditions exist to build the 5G Era?

…for new services

• User-centric society• Service-based architectures• Standards-based technologies, interfaces, protocols• Interconnected, global platforms & ecosystems• Everything-as-a-service• Only a massive PPP Change management programme based on basic, continuous

education, training & evaluation for all citizens will allow the new society to emerge• Without fully-deployed 5G critical communications fabrics, growing complexity could

lead to chaos

Critical comms – road to 5G• Criminals, pre-school children have access to services & applications often not

available to first responders• Emergency services have special requirements• Perfectly good mission-critical voice solutions have existed for some time• Critical users have been using separate systems for data, video & other “more

advanced” services• Our community join 3GPP, ETSI etc. to develop next-gen MCX applications• LTE-AP/5G includes mission-critical use cases• Critical communications community can help wider society deliver 5G promise –

security, verticals, virtualisation, network slicing etc.

The convergence of everything

• Moving from siloes, trade secrets, proprietary platforms/technologies

• Towards more open, interconnected, collaborative, standards-based solutions

• Requires a period of “hybridisation”• Every market will choose a different route based

on initial conditions/existing states• IT & comms worlds are converging• Commercial & critical worlds are converging• Physical, virtual & digital worlds are converging• Common APIs, frameworks, topologies &

methodologies• Only the strongest, bravest & smartest will

survive

Why a Global Index for critical communications?

• There is a lot of uncertainty regarding which models to follow

• Traditional reports focus on the numbers rather than the complex processes themselves

• Governments, regulators, mobile operators, critical users & the public need to be educated/informed so that “right decisions” are made

• Greater accountability of decision-makers• Start an important discussion – perhaps one of the

most important of our time• The path to 2030 can be mapped out, managed &

monitored “in real-time” as significant changes take place in projects & their environment

• Quixoticity’s “raison-d’etre” & contribution to the debate on the kind of world we want to live in in 2030

Quixoticity Index – Key criteria

• End-to-end mission-critical (non-negotiable)• Access to sufficient spectrum• Coverage, capacity, connectivity & control• Open standards• Legal, political, regulatory framework• New funding/business models• Multi-sector integration – inc. control rooms• Local/(inter)national vision/leadership/ecosystem• User-centric/services-based approach• Economic, social & environmental value• Successful migration• Technology/change management - innovation• Human factors• Information management• New criteria added/weights adjusted dynamically

to reflect changing circumstances

Quixoticity Index – Initial markets(End-2017 Edition)

• In alphabetic order:– Australia– Canada– Finland– France– Germany– Korea (South!)– Saudi Arabia– UAE– UK– USA

Quixoticity Index – Long-term goals• A better, safer, smarter society• Critical communications at the heart of future societies• Critical communications helps deliver the 5G Era• Critical communications helps world to achieve Sustainable Development Goals by

2030• A framework for understanding the transition of the critical communications world• A reference point & a trusted benchmark for our community• Technology transfer & shared best practices on a global scale

Our species stands at a crossroads

• Many challenges ahead of us• A lot of work to be done• Change is never easy• Complex, interlocking systems on multiple

levels• A move from one world to a very different

one• We need to carry everyone with us – hence

the SDGs• As we currently stand, there is absolutely no

guarantee we are capable of such a transformation

• The consequences of failure are incalculable

Melbourne, November 21-23