Anticipating a hostile reception for Augmented

Reality

Principal, Delta Wisdom Chair, London Futurists

David Wood @dw2

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@dw2

Opportunities

Threats

The set of

possible futures

Foresight…

… is hard

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Rate of pace of change

increasing

Foresight…

… getting harder

Complex convergence

of technologies and

convergence of risks

Opportunities

Threats

So we need to get better at it!

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Threats

Product failures

• Battery life too short

• Software too slow

• UX non-intuitive

• Motion sickness

• Users can’t get dates

Users dislike the products

• (Technological solutions)

• (Plus design skills)

• (Plus smart business models)

Political failures

• Users fear the products

• Users campaign against them

• Ecosystem falls apart

• Product development falters

• ?!

• Technological solutions?!

• Design & biz model skills?!

• Political & marketing skills!?

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Technologies with adverse political reaction

http://www.kabntr.org/plasticsucks/april-showers-bring-may-gmo-laced-flora-fauna-and-food/

http://honestlyhealthyfood.com/2014/03/11/gmos-genetically-modified-organisms-alkaline/

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Technologies with adverse political reaction

http://www.kabntr.org/plasticsucks/april-showers-bring-may-gmo-laced-flora-fauna-and-food/

http://honestlyhealthyfood.com/2014/03/11/gmos-genetically-modified-organisms-alkaline/

http://worldink.org/2014/02/15/genetically-modified-everything/

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Technologies with adverse political reaction

http://www.buzzle.com/articles/nuclear-energy/

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Technologies with adverse political reaction

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Surveillance society • “We’ll Spy on You Through Your Dishwasher”

• CIA Director David Petraeus – “Items of interest will be located, identified,

monitored, and remotely controlled through technologies such as RFID, sensor networks, tiny embedded servers, and energy harvesters — all connected to the next-generation internet using abundant, low-cost, and high-power computing”

– “Transformational is an overused word, but I do believe it properly applies to these technologies, particularly to their effect on clandestine tradecraft”

• Not to mention smart cameras everywhere, plus computer vision

www.wired.com/dangerroom/2012/03/petraeus-tv-remote/

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Surveillance society

http://venturebeat.com/2014/03/30/which-smart-glasses-will-be-right-for-you/

EyeTap, Univ Toronto Epson Moverio GlassUp Optinvent ORA

KAIST univ K-Glass Atheer One Lumus DK-40 Vuzix M2000AR

MIT SixthSense CastAR Recon Jet Google Glass

Pivothead Smart

+ many more

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Surveillance society

http://www.wired.co.uk/news/archive/2012-08/06/wifi-radar

Research by University College London engineers Karl Woodbridge and Kevin Chetty Utilises Doppler effect

“See through walls with WiFi radar”

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Is your connected car spying on you?

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-29566764

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Existing CCTV cameras

• Already pervasive

• 5.9 million CCTV cameras in the UK

• 750,000 in “sensitive locations” such as schools, hospitals, and care homes

• Monitored only by “trusted authorities” (?)

Augmented Reality cameras

• Everybody can wear them

• Unclear when glasses (etc) are recording – Cameras may be on mini-drones

• Unclear who is looking at the data

• Other sensors too! (not just cameras) – Eye tracking

– Heart-rate monitor

• Faster (bewildering) rate of change

• The straw that breaks the camel’s back?

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/10172298/One-surveillance-camera-for-every-11-people-in-Britain-says-CCTV-survey.html

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Privacy battles

Information leaked or stolen

– About our finances

– Our health (and insurability)

– Our business deals

– Who we are interviewing with

– Who we socialise with

– Our political beliefs

– Our vulnerabilities

Demands for privacy systems

– That are Reliable

– Affordable for all (not just the rich)

– Easily understood (transparent)

Powerful arms race

– Hackers vs. protectors

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Existing CCTV cameras

• Already pervasive

• 5.9 million CCTV cameras in the UK

• 750,000 in “sensitive locations” such as schools, hospitals, and care homes

• Monitored only by “trusted authorities” (?)

Augmented Reality cameras

• Everybody can wear them

• Unclear when glasses (etc) are recording – Cameras may be on mini-drones

• Unclear who is looking at the data

• Other sensors too! (not just cameras) – Eye tracking

– Heart-rate monitor

• Faster (bewildering) rate of change

• The straw that breaks the camel’s back?

• Resentment against premium info flow received by wealthy owners of AR – In age of increasing tech unemployment

http://www.telegraph.co.uk/technology/10172298/One-surveillance-camera-for-every-11-people-in-Britain-says-CCTV-survey.html

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Technological unemployment

http://dilbert.com/strips/comic/2011-12-16/

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@dw2 http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2826463/CBRE-report-warns-50-cent-occupations-redundant-20-years-time.html

“Will YOUR job still exist in 2025? New report warns

50% of occupations will be redundant in 11 years time”

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Technological unemployment

http://venturebeat.com/2013/12/05/khosla-explains-his-robots-replacing-doctors-comment-and-goes-on-the-hunt-for-data-scientists/

“By 2025, 80% of the functions doctors do will be done much

better and much more cheaply by machines & algorithms”

– Vinod Khosla

“80% of doctors will be replaced by technology”

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@dw2 http://dw2blog.com/2011/05/07/workers-beware-the-robots-are-coming/

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@dw2 www.spartacus.schoolnet.co.uk/RAcruikshank.htm

George Cruikshank, The Horses 'Going to the Dogs'

1829

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“Humans need not apply”

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Pq-S557XQU

Channel: CGP Grey

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@dw2 http://owsposters.tumblr.com/post/11688983653/middle-class-family-an-endangered-species

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@dw2 http://www.technologyreview.com/featuredstory/531726/technology-and-inequality/

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@dw2 http://www.technologyreview.com/featuredstory/531726/technology-and-inequality/

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@dw2 http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-2541541/Google-hiring-security-guards-protect-work-buses-San-

Francisco-following-protests-tech-workers-driving-city-rents.html

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@dw2 http://rift.transcendencemovie.com/

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http://blogs.telegraph.co.uk/technology/jamiebartlett/100013504/as-technology-swamps-our-lives-the-next-unabombers-are-waiting-for-their-moment/

Ted Kaczinski 1978 to 1995, sent 16 bombs to targets

including universities and airlines killing three people and injuring 23.

30,000 word essay Industrial Society and Its Future

“Individualists Tending toward the Wild” 2011, Mexico

“To injure or kill scientists and researchers (by the means of whatever violent act)

who ensure the Technoindustrial System continues its course”

Bombed nanotech research centre, Monterrey

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Conclusions • The successful future of Augmented Reality depends on a lot more

than raw technology • We should anticipate a potential societal backlash, against tech in

general, and against the ubiquitous use of micro-cameras • We need to talk through the issues in advance, in a balanced

programme of education • Explain why the AR security systems can be trusted

– And if we can’t explain them, we should re-design them! – Relying on “security by obscurity” is a recipe for major political backlash

• Encrypting our own data isn’t sufficient, since we will be observed by cameras and sensors outside our direct control – Are there technical methods to detect & prevent unwanted filming? – Are there political methods to avoid increasing sense of alienation?

Anticipating a hostile reception for Augmented

Reality

Principal, Delta Wisdom Chair, London Futurists

David Wood @dw2