- 1.Climate change and Australian Farming Systems Peter Hayman
SARDI and Deirdre Lemerle CSU, Wagga
2. Climate Change and Farming Systems
- High level of interest from contributed papers & posters to
CCRSPI conference
- Survey for Primary Industries Adaptation Research Network
(PIARN)
- GRDC review of grains RD&E referred to farming systems 94
times
3. The study of farming systems in Australia has benefited
from
- Hard systems thinking from ecology
- Hard systems thinking from management science and operations
research
- Soft systems thinking from sociology
4. Different views of climate change and farming systems
- a biophysical ecosystem processing materials,
- a business or production system generating income,
- a family farm integrated into the wider rural community.
5. Nemani et al 2003 Science(6 June 03) Climate is central to
understanding of natural and managed systems 6. Ryan et al 2010 7.
Is this drought or aridity; drought or drying; variability or
change; cycle or shift. 8. 9. Research on farming systems
- Level of study (farming systems)
10. Passioura 1979
- Meaning n+1 (Landscapes & communities)
- Level of study (farming systems)
- Explanation n-1(crop and animal physiology, soil, weed science,
plant pathology, entomology, climate science)
11. Minnipa Orroroo Increasing farm size changing rural
communities 12. 13. Passioura 1979
- Meaning (Landscapes & communities)
- Level of study ( farming systems )
- Explanation(crop and animal physiology, soil, weed science,
plant pathology, entomology, climate science)
14. Five Questions at the farming systems level
- 1) What are the climate change projections for my farming
region?
- 2) What are the impacts of these changes?
- 3) What can be done to adapt ?
- 4) What are the risks and opportunities for my farm from
policies to reduce emissions
- 5) How can I measure and manage emissions on my farm
CCRSPI2008 15. 1) What are the climate change projections for my
farming region?
- Predictions are not instructions that people simply follow to
make better decisions. They are pieces of an intricate puzzle that
may sometimes contribute to improved decisions.Daniel
Sarewitz.Nature 463: 2010
- Learn from failure of predicting earthquakes (robust buildings)
as well as success of predicting cyclones.
16. 17. Lyndoch Nurioopta Eden Valley N 18. Thinking about
future climates Climate change projections from GCMS Sensitivity
analysis: 1,1.5, 2 degrees warming; 5%, 10%, 20% rainfall decline
19. 20. April to October rainfall 21. April to October rainfall 22.
April to October rainfall 23. 24. Thinking about future climates
Climate change projections from GCMS Sensitivity analysis: 1,1.5, 2
degrees warming; 5%, 10%, 20% rainfall decline Temporal analogueseg
drought Spatial analogues study a warmer & drier site 25. Ryan
et al 2010 26. Five Questions at the farming systems level
- 2) What are the impacts of these changes?
- The same climate state can have very different impacts.
- Light soils vs heavy soils, sheep vs livestock, olives vs
citrus.
27. Garnault: costs of climate change
- Type 1 Direct costs lower crop yield
- Type 2 Indirect costs (eg tourism) impact of dropping break
crops
- Type 3 Risk & insurance costs not sowing due to fear of
heat event
- Type 4 Non market impacts (eg species loss), changes to rural
communities, food sovereignty.
28. Five Questions at the farming systems level
- 3) What can be done to adapt ?
- Martin and Parry (1988) stop just doing impact studies
- Recognise just how adaptive Australian agriculture especially
as measured by decades
29. The challenge ofadditionalityin adaptation. 30. Howdenet
al2010 31. Sep 2000 32. Sep 2002 33. Sep 2006 34. Five Questions at
the farming systems level
- 1) What are the climate change projections for my farming
region?
- 2) What are the impacts of these changes?
- 3) What can be done to adapt ?
- 4) What are the risks and opportunities for my farm from
policies to reduce emissions
- 5) How can I measure and manage emissions on my farm
35. Garnaut 2010 ( Aust J Ag & Res Ec )
- Agriculture will suffer from unmitigated climate change
- like the Australian economy as a whole, but more so,
agriculture would be likely to face significant costs that were not
balanced by benefits in the early stages of an Australian
mitigation regime.
36. Different views of climate change and farming systems
- a biophysical ecosystem processing materials,
- a business or production system generating income,
- a family farm integrated into the wider rural community.
37. What destroyed the sand castle ? The wave or tide ? What can
we learn from the wave about future resilience and vulnerability ?
38. Source: Bureau of Meteorology 39. Weather Season Climate
change
- We cannot reliably remember climate because memory generates
meaningnot statistics. our lives lurch between expectation and
event, between the idea of climate and the reality of
weather.Sherratt (2005)
40.