Dr. Klineberg on the Changing Houston Demographics

The Changing Face of Houston:

Tracking Responses to the Economic and Demogra- phic Transformations through 32 Years of Surveys

Dr. Stephen Klineberg H.A.R. H-Town Day 201317 October 2013

on refining hydrocarbons into gasoline and petrochemicals and servicing the oil and gas industry.

Houston was basically a “one-horse” industrial town focused

1900-1982

2

(Robert Fisher 1990)

that seemed to represent, in fact or fantasy, an expansion of the public sector or a limitation on the economic prerogatives and activities of the city’s business community.”

“The ideological thrust in Houston in the twentieth century has been

anti-regulation,

anti-taxes,

anti-government,

anti-anything

3

anti-planning,

The 32nd Houston Area Survey (1982-2013)

More than three decades of

systematic interviews with

representative samples of

Harris County residents,

focused on three central

issues:

4

Two contrasting economic eras

The 30 years after World

War II were a period ofbroad-based prosperity.

The past 30 years have been marked by growing concentrations of wealth.

Percent increase in before-tax income

The 30 years after World War II (1949-1979)

The past 30 years (1979-2011)

Bottom 20%

Second 20%

Middle 20%

Fourth 20%

Top 20%

Top 5%

-10%

50%

110% 116%

100%

111% 114%

99%

86%

-3%

2% 5% 15%

43%

63%

5Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Current Population Survey, Annual Social And Economic Supplements. Mean Household Income Received By Each Fifth And The Top 5 Percent, Inflation Adjusted.© Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research

The New Economy

The new economy (2013)

The traditional “blue collar path” to financial security has now largely disappeared.

“For a person to be successful in today’s world, is it necessary to get an education beyond high school?”

73%“Or are there many

ways to succeed with no more than a high school diploma?”

25%

2% Don’t know/Can’t say

6Source: 2013 Kinder Institute Houston Area Survey© Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research

The New Economy

82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 130%

50%

100%

71%

36%

11%

42%

68%

43%

Positive perceptions of job opportunities in the Houston area (1982-2013)

35%

48%

Percent rating job opportunities as “excellent” or “good”

58%

of Houstonians in 1982 gave positive ratings to job opportunities in Houston.

66%

25%

41%

58%

7Source: Kinder Houston Area Survey (1982-2013)© Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research

The New Economy

82 83 84 85 86 87 88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 133.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

9.0

10.0

11.0

The official unemployment rates in Harris County (1982-2013)

9.8 10.1

6.8

8.6 8.4

7.3

4.0 4.3

6.8

7.8

6.5

8Source: 2013 Kinder Institute Houston Area Survey, U.S. Department of Labor, Bureau of Labor Statistics. Unemployment rates are not seasonally adjusted.© Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research

Hiking, boating,birding

Arts, culture, sports

Air and water qualityGreen spaces, trees

Urban centers

BayousTransportation

05 07 09 11 130%

50%

100%

17%

8% 9% 7% 6%

78%85% 86% 89% 90%

“Much/slightly worse”

Life in the Houston area compared to other U.S. metro areas(2005-2013)

“Compared to most other metropolitan areas in the country, is Houston a better or worse

place to live?”

“Much/slightly better”

10Source: Kinder Houston Area Survey (2005-2013)© Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research

Quality of Place

The City of Houston2.1 million600 sq. mi.

Chicago2.7 million228 sq. mi.

Baltimore0.6 million81 sq. mi.

Philadelphia1.5 million134 sq. mi. Detroit

0.7 million139 sq. mi.

11Source: U.S. Census Bureau© Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research

Quality of Place

The 10-county Houston metropolitan region5.9 million10,062 sq. mi.

New Jersey8.8 million8,729 sq. mi.

12Source: U.S. Census Bureau© Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research

Massachusetts6.6 million10,550 sq. mi.

Quality of Place

201220102008

Housing preferences (2008-2012)

51%47% 39%58% 36%59%

Don’t know/Can’t say

A single-family home with a big yard,

where you would need to drive almost everywhere you want to go.

A smaller home in a more urbanized area, within walking distance of shops and workplaces.

"If you could choose where to live in the Houston area,

which would you prefer? "

13Source: 2013 Kinder Institute Houston Area Survey© Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research

Quality of Place

1978

© Alex MacLean

Quality of Place

2011

© Alex MacLean

The Demographic Revolution17

San DiegoLos Angeles

New York CitySan Francisco

Miami

Chicago

Houston

Major U.S. immigrant cities

Washington D.C.

Atlanta

Dallas

Boston

Source: 2013 Kinder Institute Houston Area Survey© Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research


Anglos

Blacks

Latinos

Asians

Anglos

Blacks

Latinos

AsiansAsians

Anglos

BlacksLatinos

Anglos

BlacksLatinosAsians

Anglos

BlacksLatinosAsians

0

1,000,000

2,000,000

3,000,000

4,000,000

Pop

ula

tio

n in

Mill

ion

s

15.5%

9.9%

20.1%

69.2%

0.8%

1,741,912

1960

1970

1980

1990

2000

2010

The demographic transformations of Harris County

Anglos

Blacks

Latinos

Asians

2,818,199

22.7%

19.1%

54.0%

4.1%

6.7%

32.9%

18.2%

42.1%

3,400,578

7.7%

18.4%

40.8%

33.0% 4,092,459

19.7%

62.7%

2.1%

15.5%

2,409,5471,243,258

6.0%

19.8%

73.9%

0.3%

Source: U.S. Census. Classifications based on Texas State Data Center Conventions. © Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research


Anglos

BlacksLatinosAsians

Anglos

BlacksLatinosAsians

Anglos

Blacks

LatinosAsians

Anglos

BlacksLatinosAsians

0

300,000

600,000

15.5%

The demographic changes in Fort Bend County and Montgomery County

53.8%

20.3%

19.5%

6.5%

1990

46.2%

19.6%

21.1%

13.1%

36.2%

21.1%

23.7%

19.0%

Anglos

Blacks

Latinos

Asians

2000

2010

1990

2000

2010

87.5%

4.2%7.3%

1.0%

225,421 354,452 585,375 182,201 293,768 455,746

Fort Bend County Montgomery County

71.2%

4.1%20.8%

4.0%

81.4%

3.4%12.6%

2.5%

Source: U.S. Census. Classifications based on Texas State Data Center Conventions. © Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research

The Demographic Revolution

Harris County total population

Anglo majority

Black majority

Latino majority

No majority

20Color represents demographic group being a majority in that census tract.Source: Outreach Strategists, LLC© Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research

1980




Anglo majority

Black majority

Latino majority

No majority 1990




Anglo majority

Black majority

Latino majority

No majority 2000




Anglo majority

Black majority

Latino majority

No majority 2010


0-4 5-9 10 - 14 15 - 19 20 - 24 25 - 29 30 - 34 35 - 39 40 - 44 45 - 49 50 - 54 55 - 59 60 - 64 65 +

21%

57%

79%

43%

All others

Non-Hispanic Whites

Percent of the population by age group and ethnicity in Harris County in 2010

24Source: Hobby Center for the Study of Texas© Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research


0-4 5-9 10 - 14 15 - 19 20 - 24 25 - 29 30 - 34 35 - 39 40 - 44 45 - 49 50 - 54 55 - 59 60 - 64 65 +

32%

68%68%

32%

All others

Non-Hispanic Whites

Percent of the population by age group and ethnicity in the state of Texas in 2010

Source: Hobby Center for the Study of Texas© Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research


0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65+

51%

80%

49%

20%

All Others

Non-Hispanic Whites

Percent of the population by age group and ethnicity in the United States in 2010



0-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65+

37%

59%63%

42%

All Others Non-Hispanic Whites

Percent of the population by age group and ethnicity in the United States in 2050



09 11 13

51% 47%

61%

The new immigration

mostly strengthens

American culture.09 10 11 12 13

64% 66%71%

74%83%

For: granting a path to legal citizenship.

09 11 130%

90%

55% 55%

68%

Admit about the same or more

legal immigrants.

The shift in attitudes toward immigrants during the past four years (2009-2013)

Percent of respondents agreeing

Source: 2013 Kinder Institute Houston Area Survey© Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research


70+60-6950-5940-4930-3918-29

Source: 2007 and 2011 Kinder Institute Houston Area Survey© Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research

57% 61% 49% 42% 25% 10%

Anglo respondents who report having been in a romantic relationship with someone who was not

Anglo.

Inter-ethnic romantic relationships by age among Anglos (2007 and 2011 combined)


71%

74%

68%

61%

65%

43%

57%

60%

42%

48%

55%

35%

Percent of Anglo respondents agreeing, by ageEthnic

attitudes by age among Anglos(2007–2013 combined)

18-29

30-44

45-59

60+

The increasing ethnic diversity brought aboutby immigration is a “good thing,” rather than a “bad thing.”

Grant illegal immigrants a path to legal citizenship, if they speak English and have no criminal record.

The increasing immigration into the U.S. today mostly “strengthens,” rather than “threatens,” American culture.

30Source: 2007-2013 Kinder Institute Houston Area Survey© Dr. Stephen L. Klineberg and the Kinder Institute for Urban Research

18-29

30-44

45-59

60+

18-29

30-44

45-59

60+


Houston will need to develop

into a truly successful

multiethnic society, with

equality of opportunity for all

communities, where all are

encour-aged to participate as

full partners in shaping the

region’s future.

Today’s pro-growth agenda

Houston will need to nurture

a far more educated and

technically- trained

workforce, and invest in the

research centers that will fuel

the engines of the new

economy.

The Houston region will need

to grow into a more appealing

urban destination, while

accommodating an expected

3.5 million additional residents

during the next 20 years.

[email protected]

713-348-4132 @RiceKinderInst

/InstituteForUrbanResearch

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Dr. Klineberg on the Changing Houston Demographics