Alexander Bychkov, Research Institute of Atomic Reactors, Dimitrovgrad, Russia

Sergei Pereslegin, Elena Pereslegina, Nikolay Yutanov,

Ekaterina Yutanova, Artiom Zheltov, Future-Design Research Group, St.Petersburg, Russia

Fast Nuclear Reactors and Global Energy Future

World energy consumption is growing

World energy consumption is growing exponentially.By 25-30 years it is likely to double.

•Global delay in power generation capacities commission

•Inadequate location of existing capacities•Power networks getting old

Energy deficit by 2010

Signs of Global Energy Crisis

Stage 1: Power-hungry projects cancelled. Explained with «countering global warming», «wise self-limitation», «environmental concerns», «sustainable consumption»

Stage 2: Business and development slowdown. Explained with «household consumption reduction campaign», «smart consumption management», «penalties for excessive consumption»Causes economic growth slowdown, financial system challenges, problems with social security system

Local / regional power shortage scenario, part 1

Stage 3: State policy fail. Power system experiences failures and blackouts. Power-saving policies fail.

The state tries to take economy out of depression with non-economic means, e.g. war or global project.

Local / regional power shortage scenario, part 2

Saving pattern

“Innovative saving”

“Administrative saving”

“Structural saving”

Policies “Smart grid” and “smart housing”, technical reduction of household and industrial appliances consumption

Legislative reduction of industrial and household consumption, new legislative energy-saving standards.

Switch to small-scale generation and local networks. Expansion of cogeneration systems.

Opportunities 5 – 10% energy saving coupled with 25 – 50% increase in goods and services costs

13-15% energy saving, according to UK and France Heating costs and n etwork transmission losses redu ction. Joint system of heat and power generation.

Feasibility 10% saving, max. At your own risk An extremely costly projest to reshape the entire economy and lifestyle, min 50 years to accomplish.

Risks and Consequences

Inflation in economy, power system instability, blackouts and system failures.

Life quality decrease, production and consumption reduction, disease and mortality rates growth. Social unrest up to breakouts of violence and civil war. Unavoidable massive blackouts and infrastructure failures.

Local heating and power crisi s. Local abandoned territories and some abandoned cities.

Ways and means, costs and ends of energy saving

• By physical process: Heat / Flow / Nuclear• By consumption pattern: Local / Baseline /

Extended / Universal• By type of consumed resource: Physically

Inexhaustible / Almost Inexhaustible / Exhaustible

Types and models of power generation

Universal consumption

Extended energy consumption

Baseline energy consumption

Local energy consumption

Physically Inexhaustible resources

Wind Power

Solar Power, Wind Power, Hydro Power, Tidal Power. Nuclear power with Thorium

Solar Power, Wind Power, Hydro Power, Geothermal Power.

Almost Inexhaustible resources

Coal and Nuclear power wirh U-238

Coal and Nuclear power wirh U-238

Shale gas, Peat, Biofuel, and other Low-Calories Hydrocarbon Power types

Exhaustible or Deficit resources

Oil & Gas Power Oil & Gas Power , Nuclear power with U-235

Oil & Gas Power , Nuclear power with U-235

Oil & Gas Power

Types and models of power generation, continued

The methodology used for long-term evaluation of power generation types encompassed the following factors:

• General type of generation • Primary consumed resources - those directly used for generation (e.g. coal

burnt)• Secondary consumed resources - those indirectly used for generation (e.g.

territory for hydropower reservoir)• Direct primary costs and charges - e.g. nuclear waste• Indirect secondary costs and charges - e.g. increased lung cancer rate for coal

power• Virtual (non-existing) costs and charges - e.g. greenhouse gases

Methodology for evaluation of power generation

Ranking

Generation types

Feasibility

1. Advanced Nuclear Energy (closed nuclear fuel cycle)

Development of these technologies is imperative.

2.

Solar, Oil, Wind Power The intentions for development are high. Development of these technologies is very probable and desirable.

3.

Tidal, Gas, Geothermal Power

There are certain intentions for development. Development of these technologies requires special policies and is generally probable.

4.

Traditional Nuclear Power, Coal Power Litter Burning

No intentions for development. Development of these technologies requires special policies and is generally improbable. Though some local capacities might remain.

5.

Brown and Lignite Coal, Peat, Shale Power

Further development is impossible and undesired. Although some local capacities might remain, its general trend is towards reduction and niche markets.

6.

Biofuels

Socially harmful technology, not to be used by any means. Its limitation and abandonment are inevitable.

Evaluation of power generation types

Scenario-building methodology

• Oil would remain a key resource. Its overall consumption would grow, but relative consumption is likely to decrease.

• Gas price would remain linked to oil price• Coal consumption would outrun oil and gas. • Low-calories fuels consumption would decrease, although its

positions would remain at local level.• Flow Power (e.g. hydro, wind and tidal power) would develop,

although its general share would remain moderate.

Baseline global energy scenario features

• Slow-neutron nuclear power generation would be constrained by high generation costs, that contain costs of nuclear waste utilization and storage.

• Therefore, nuclear power would inevitably split into traditional (slow-neutron) and innovative (fast neutrons, closed fuel cycle) power generation.

Baseline global energy scenario features, continued

• Inertial, surprise-free scenario • No political will for changes is necessary. • Energy-saving policy continues until social system crisis. • Extensive development of nuclear power• Nuclear waste decommissioned through traditional water

storage, the amount of waste grows with time.

Global Nuclear power scenarios: “Energy-saving Future”

• Traditional surprise-free scenario. Implies technology and civilization rollback.

• Extension of the “golden billion”, with decrease in its privileges. Problems with social security and pension system.

• Requires political will for certain changes. • Oil and gas remain key fuels, but get pressured out of baseline

generation. • The role of flow power (primarily wind & sun) is growing. • Nuclear power generation is growing. Radiophobia looses its social

importance.• “Wet” and “dry” treatment of radioactive waste are of equal importance.

Global Nuclear power scenarios: “The Coal Renaissance”

• A breakthrough scenario for global energy.• Implies great political will and strategic approach.• New Technological Platform in nuclear power integrates slow and

fast neutron reactors. • Closed fuel cycle, “dry” treatment of waste and molten salt

advanced burner reactors. • The problem of nuclear waste is solved.

Global Nuclear power scenarios: “The Nuclear Breakthrough”

• Generation capacities

• Nuclear waste disposal

• Nuclear power expansion

• Changes in primary resources consumption structure for nuclear power

New Technological Platform in Nuclear Power

Future energy consumption structure changes

Forecast, 20502005

• Focus resources on Generation 3+ or through them to development of Next-gen reactors?

• Existing economic studies reduce profitability of closed-cycle FBR.

• The first nuclear technological platform with recycling and minimized nuclear waste would become a “de facto” standard.

• It would make traditional reactors technologically outdated and commercially distractive.

The problem of strategic choice

If nobody develops FBR and closed fuel cycle, current state in global energy retains further.

If anybody creates New Technological Platform, and others do not, the winner gets the entire market.

If all actors create various versions of New Technological Platform, global nuclear energy gets boost, but hard competitions starts.

The Prisoners Dilemma would give start to New Nuclear Race in design of next-gen nuclear power systems.

NB: By October 2010 The New Nuclear Race has begun.

The Prisoners Dilemma and New Nuclear Race

The Strategic Options: Generation Type

• Traditional thermal energy• Flow power, mostly solar power, wind power,

hydropower• Nuclear power

• Nuclear power based on of heavy atomic nucleus fission• Thermonuclear power based on light atomic nucleus

synthesis• Quark energy – hypothetic power source based on new

physical principles

The Strategic Options: Type of Nuclear Generation

• Traditional technological platform. Certified slow-neutron reactors, BWR or PWR.

• Innovative technological platform. Fast-neutron reactors replace slow-neutron reactors. They are to be

designed, built, licensed and certificated.

• Mixed technological platform. Fast-neutron reactors are an important, but secondary component for

slow-neutron reactors system.

The Strategic Options: Technological Platform for Nuclear Power

• Fast reactors – Breeders multiplication constant is 1.2 or higher, fuel cycle closed outside power plant• Fast reactors – Closed Cycle multiplication constant is about 1.0, fuel cycle closed inside power plant• Fast reactors – Advanced Burner Reactors multiplication constant does not matter, optimized utilization of spent nuclear fuel, fuel

cycle closed outside power plant• Fast reactors – hydrogen producers.• “Economical reactors”.

The Strategic Options: Reactor Type

• Metal sodium coolant• Metal lead and bismuth coolant• Metal lead coolant• Gas coolant: helium or carbon dioxide• Molten salt coolant: molten or soluted salt• Supercritical water coolant reactors, vortical units with

homogeneous core etc.

The Strategic Options: Coolant Type

• Ultrahigh-power units (more than 1.5 GW electrical power ) • High-power units (750 MW – 1.5 GW)• Medium-power units (350 – 750 MW)• Small units (100 – 350 MW)• Local units (10 – 100 MW)• Ultra-small units (1 – 10 MW)• Nuclear generation units up to 1 MW

The Strategic Options: Reactor Power

• Uranium fuel cycle• Thorium fuel cycle• Mixed fuel cycle (uranium – erbium or uranium – thorium

– erbium)

The Strategic Options: Fuel Cycle

• Uranium oxide• Uranium nitride• Uranium carbide• Metal uranium• Various types of plutonium and uranium mix (including

МОХ).

The Strategic Options: Fuel Choice

• Time is the only critical parameter • New Technological Platform is BN sodium reactors +

BREST lead reactors + SVBR lead and bismuth reactors.

• Looking forward towards a Future Technological Platform for nuclear energy, based on molten salt reactors.

Strategic Priorities

• Abandon research in traditional slow reactors• Focus R&D on goals of New Technological Platform (closed nuclear

fuel cycle, metal coolant)• Focus R&D on goals of Future Technological Platform• Develop advanced experimental base, models and codes • Establish New Technological Platform while create Future

Technological Platform• Future Technological Platform to be deployed with 6-7 years delay

Strategic Maneuver

• Nuclear power would help create a new economic structure - the econocenosis.

• Econocenosis goes after cluster. It is an interlinked structure of efficient logistically optimized waste-free production systems.

• A Nuclear Econocenosis encompasses: – Activities directly linked with construction and operation of nuclear power

plant;– Personnel, infrastructure, manufacture, transport, logistics, trade etc. that

benefit from nuclear power plant;– Urban, industrial and technological environments, that interlink these systems

with territory and population.

The Future Nuclear Economy