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Transboundary flood management in a changing environment International Roundtable on Protection and Sustainable Use of Trans-boundary Waters in South East Europe, 15-16 December 2011, Zagreb, Croatia
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International Roundtable on Protection and Sustainable Use of Transboundary Waters in Southeastern Europe, Zagreb, 15-16 Dec 2011
THEMATIC BLOCK 1- Emerging Challenges, Extreme phenomena-Floods
Dr Marina Babić MladenovićINSTITUTE “JAROSLAV ČERNI” - BELGRADE
A few cycles of intensive snow and intervals with unusually high airunusually high air temperatures
Water equivalent of snowabove average valuesabove average values
Coincidence of flood on the Danube and Tisza river, caused th hi h t t l lthe highest water levels ever recorded
Example of 2006 FloodExample of 2006 Flood
Example of 2006 FloodExample of 2006 Flood
Danube downstream of V. 15000
16000 > Q100
Danube between Sava and V. Morava
Morava
12000
13000
14000
9000
10000
11000
m3 /s
)
Danube between Drava and Tisa
6000
7000
8000
Dis
char
ge (
m < Q100
Sava river
3000
4000
5000
D
Q
∼ Q5
Tisa river
Velika Morava riverTamis river
0
1000
2000∼ Q100
23 25 27 29 31 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 24 26 28 30 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22
April MayMarch
Successful flood defence, very expensive 10 M €240 000 ha flooded unprotected zones (between levees) and240 000 ha flooded – unprotected zones (between levees) and arrable land flooded by excessive inland waters - damage 30 M €State of emergency in 10 municipalities along the Danube and Tisa
Transboundary cooperation◦ Good cooperation between the HMS Serbia and HMS of other◦ Good cooperation between the HMS Serbia and HMS of other
DRB countries – hydrological data and forecasts◦ Flood release through the Iron Gate 1 and 2 dams was strictly
according to RO-RS bilaterally agreed rules of operation◦ ICPDR report
Example of 2010 flood Example of 2010 flood -- DRBDRB
Example of 2010 flood Example of 2010 flood -- SerbiaSerbia- Unfavorable hydro-meteorological conditions in the first half of 2010
o Prolonged but not extreme rainfall Extremely wet conditions saturated soilo Extremely wet conditions – saturated soil
- Flood waves registered on 39 large and medium rivers, and numerous torrents - Repeated flood waves
Jan + Jun/July +
p- Flood damage - mainly on unprotected areas
Jun/July +Dec
Dec 2009 -Feb 2010
June
DecJune
Dec
Floods caused by Floods caused by extreme hydroextreme hydro--meteorological meteorological phenomenaphenomena
Feb -April Feb -
Aprilphenomenaphenomena
Example of 2010 flood Example of 2010 flood -- SerbiaSerbia
Cause: rapid snowmelt + rainfall (up to Cause: rapid snowmelt + rainfall (up to 15 mm/day15 mm/day) + very saturated soil) + very saturated soilConsequence: 300 houses flooded in unprotected zoneConsequence: 300 houses flooded in unprotected zoneActivity: Reconsideration of flood risk + local flood protection measuresActivity: Reconsideration of flood risk + local flood protection measures
The hydrological situation in 2010 was highly unfavorable, with repeated floods on nearly all national and international rivers -repeated floods on nearly all national and international rivers example of the Sava River, where floods occurred at the very beginning of the year, in the summer, and in December 2010. Fl d d f ti iti l t d f 185 d tlFlood defense activities lasted for 185 days – mostly emergency flood defense was in force and in some areas the emergency situation was declared
Transboundary cooperation◦ International data and forecast exchange in the region need to be◦ International data and forecast exchange in the region need to be
improved – especially in the Drina river basin◦ ICPDR report
Example of 2010 flood Example of 2010 flood –– Drina river basinDrina river basin
TheThe largestlargest and most importantand most importantThe The largestlargest and most important and most important tributary of tributary of the the Sava Sava RRiveriver
Catchment areaCatchment area 2032020320 kmkm22
M t 31 5%M t 31 5%Montenegro 31,5%Montenegro 31,5%
Serbia 30,5%Serbia 30,5%
Bosnia and Herzegovina 37%Bosnia and Herzegovina 37%g %g %
Albania 1%Albania 1%
Example of 2010 flood Example of 2010 flood –– Drina river basinDrina river basinEnd of November/beginning of December 2010 - strong cyclone activity in Montenegro and East Herzegovina - causing heavy rainfall,
Drina, Tara and Piva and several have snow-rain regime - largest flows occur in May and April.
strong southerly winds, and very high temperatures for the time of year.
Snowmelt and abundant rainfall (100 200 mm
Melting of snow in the mountains is usually gradual – disastrous floods are not frequent. Snowmelt and abundant rainfall (100-200 mm
in 3 days) led to a difficult flood situation in the Drina river Basin.
q
Flood waves on the Drina tributaries (Piva, Tara, Cehotina, Lim and Jadar) and the main course were exceptional.
Example of 2010 flood Example of 2010 flood –– Drina river basinDrina river basin
Example of 2010 flood Example of 2010 flood –– Drina river basinDrina river basin
HE Zvornik HE Bajina Basta HE Visegrad
Example of 2010 flood Example of 2010 flood –– Drina river basinDrina river basin
Example of 2010 flood Example of 2010 flood –– Drina river basinDrina river basin
Example of 2010 flood Example of 2010 flood –– Drina river basinDrina river basin
Role of HPP reservoirs in flood events – flood storage?
Enhancement of cooperation between HMSs
◦ Common study of 2010 flood development – lessons for the future
◦ Development of early warning system
◦ Common regional hydrometeorological information system
Reconsideration of flood levels if new levee is constructed on the left bank
between Janja and Bijeljina – large volume of the existing floodplain
HUNGARYCROATIASERBIASERBIA
ROMANIA SERBIASERBIA
Decreased occurrence of ice phenomena
90
100
period 1901-1970.period 1971-2006.
Decreased occurrence of ice phenomena
60
70
80
40
50%
10
20
30
50 00 40 00 50 50 00 00 20 80 00 00
0
BEZD
AN
AP
ATI
N
OG
OJE
VO
UK
OVA
R
N. S
AD
ANKA
ME
N
ZEM
UN
PA
NC
EVO
ED
ERE
VO
RAD
ISTE
GO
LUB
AC
AN
OVA
C
1425
.5
1401
.0
1376
.4
1333
.0
1255
.5
1215
.5
1173
.0
1154
.0
1116
.2
1059
.8
1042
.0
999.
0
Stacionaza (km)
BO VU
SLA P
SME
V. G
R G
D. M
ILA
500550
Decreased duration of ice phenomena
300350400450500
V (o C
)
50100150200250
SNT
V
Floating ice
00 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80 90 100 110
ТLP (dana)
500550
250300350400450500
NT
V (
C)
Standing ice
050
100150200SN )
Standing ice
0 10 20 30 40 50 60 70 80
ТLS (dana)
1901-1970. 1971-2006.