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Why is it that good products can fail and inferior – “good enough” products can succeed?
What are the customers really buying?
Edison Phonograph Sony Betamax Apple Lisa
Edison’s ideas for the phonograph
1. Letter writing and all kinds of dictation2. Phonographic books, which will speak to blind people3. The teaching of elocution.4. Reproduction of music.5. The "Family Record” ... and of the last words of dying persons.6. Music-boxes and toys.7. Clocks that should announce... time for going home, going to meals, etc.8. The preservation of languages9. Educational purposes10. Connection with the telephone
http://memory.loc.gov/ammem/edhtml/edcyldr.html
Phonograph conclusion:
Customers wanted music by their favourite singers - the stars
Disk are more convenient
Betamax conclusion:
Customers wanted to record and/or rent movies
Legal issues also played some part
And the Porn Industry was forced to adopt VHS
Development started 1978
Release 1983
Sold 100.000 machines
Featured preemptive multi- tasking OS with Graphical User Interface
Snapchat works pretty much as fact to face communication: we talk in real time and the moment is gone
Snapchat is about attention - now
Snapchat has over 100 million active users, 7 billion daily video views
Diffusion was fast: 10 million users in 1 year
Reason: Teenagers fled Facebook since Mom was there. 1) It is not cool to be with your friends in the same club as Mom, 2) You want to lock your room
Source: Gary Veynerchuck
In the early days The innovators and technology enthusiasts drive the market They demand technology Small percentage of the market
In the later days The pragmatists and conservatives dominate; they want solutions and convenience The big market
Technology Adoption Life Cycle - The Law of Diffusion of Innovation
In the early days THEY BUY FOR THE
WHY
In the later days THEY BUY FOR THE
WHAT
Technology Adoption Life Cycle - The Law of Diffusion of Innovation
APPLE WAS IRRELEVANT AND ALMOST BANKRUPT IN 1997 IN 2012 IT WAS THE MOST VALUABLE COMPANY IN THE WORLD
BrainNEO CORTX: RATIONAL, ANALITICAL THOUGHT, LANGUAGE
LIMBRIC SYSTEM: FEELINGS, TRUST, LOYLTY, BEHAVIOUR, DECISION MAKING
REPTILIAN: INSTINCTS, HUNGER, DANGER
Source:GeoffreyA.Moore:Crossingthechasm
Crossing the ChasmThe change in customers as technology matures Crossing the chasm – or the Tipping point
What caused the tipping point for the iPod?
Applesaiditsoldarecord22.7millioniPods,whichcommandsa70%shareoftheU.S.marketformusicplayers.(source:LAtimes)
Anderson’s Grand Unified Theory of Predicting the Future
All important technologies go through four states, or at least four stages, in their lives. Each stage can be seen as a collision, with something else. The stages are:
1. Critical Price 2. Critical Mass 3. Displace another technology 4. Become nearly free
Theory of Predicting the Future