Drive Electric Northern Colorado Creating a Model Deployment Community

Drive Electric Northern Colorado Creating a Model Deployment Community

Who is the Electrification Coalition

The Electrification Coalition (EC) is a nonpartisan, non-for-profit group of business leaders committed to promoting policies and actions that facilitate the deployment of electric vehicles on a mass scale in order to combat the economic, environmental, and national security dangers caused by our nation’s dependence on oil.

20% Autos

24% Light-trucks

28% Other Transport

22% Industrial

2% Commercial

4% Residential

1% Electric Power

Petroleum fuels account for approximately 40 percent of U.S. primary energy demand, more than any other fuel.

› Approximately 70 percent of U.S. oil consumption occurs in the transportation sector, with 40 percent in light-duty vehicles.

› Transportation is 94 percent reliant on oil-based fuel for energy.

U.S. PRIMARY ENERGY DEMAND, 2009 PETROLEUM FUEL DEMAND BY SECTOR, 2009

The Problem - U.S. Oil Dependence

39% Oil

27% Natural Gas

23% Coal

9% Nuclear Energy

3% Hydro electric

Source: BP, plc., Statistical Review of World Energy 2010

› Household spending on gasoline increased by $2,008 dollars between 2001 and 2008.

› Income tax cuts over the same period increased household income by $1,900. Thus, rising fuel prices fully offset the benefit of tax cuts.

› We saw the same effect in 2011 with the payroll tax cut, which increased Americans income by $110 billion while spending on gasoline increased by $104 billion.

U.S. Oil Dependence: Household Impact

The average U.S. household spent a record $4,000 on gasoline in 2011. Since 2000, the increase in spending has offset numerous stimulus efforts.

AVG. HOUSEHOLD SPENDING ON GASOLINE (2000-2011)

Source: DOE, EIA, Annual Energy Review 2010; ORNL, Transportation Energy Data Book; SAFE Analysis

Incr

ease

d

gas

spendin

g

2000 01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 20110.00

0.75

1.50

2.25

3.00

3.75

-

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

Gas Spending/Household

Gasoline Price (Lhs)

$/g

al

Dolla

rs (N

om

inal)

› Electricity is generated from a diverse portfolio of domestic fuels.

› The power sector has substantial spare capacity.

› Electricity prices are stable.

› The network of infrastructure already exists.

Electrification Overview

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Electrification of transportation offers one of the best solutions for reducing U.S. oil dependence, insulating consumers and businesses from oil price volatility.

49% COAL

22% NUCLEAR

17% NATURAL GAS

11% RENEWABLES

1% PETROLEUM

38% RESIDENTIAL

37% COMMERCIAL/OTHER

24% INDUSTRIAL

1% TRANSPORTATION

Source: EIA, AEO 2010

U.S. ELECTRICITY GENERATION BY FUEL, 2010 U.S. ELECTRICITY DEMAND BY SECTOR, 2010

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Electricity Prices are Stable Compared to Oil

FUEL VOLATILITY INDEX (HISTORICAL)› Oil price volatility is

driven by events in the global oil market.

› In 2012, the average U.S. household spent a record $2,912 on gasoline.

› Even with greater oil production, the U.S. cannot avoid price volatility.

› In comparison, electricity prices remain relatively flat and predictable.

The volatility of oil and other liquid fuels threatens U.S. and household economic security. This volatility is driven by events beyond our control.

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 -

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

Crude Oil - WTI

Diesel

Gasoline

Ethanol (Nebraska Rack)

Electricity

Index: Jan 2000 = 1

Source: DOE, EIA

Electrification Overview: Power Sector

A 2007 DOE study found that existing offpeak electrical generating capacity could power 158 million vehicles for up to 33 miles of driving per day.

PJM CAPACITY AND LOAD (7-1, 7-2, 2009) CHANGE IN RETAIL ENERGY PRICES (2000-PRESENT)

› PJM Interconnect: The 61 gWh of excess available capacity in a typical summer week could charge 62 million Nissan Leafs each night.

› Petroleum prices have exhibited significant volatility for the past several years. In contrast, retail electricity prices have been stable.

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Wholesale Real Time PriceInstalled CapacityAvailable CapacityLoad

Gig

awatt

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$ Per Megaw

att H

our

Source: PJM Source: DOE, EIA

2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 -

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0 Crude Oil - WTIDieselGasolineEthanol (Nebraska Rack)Electricity

Index: Jan 2000 = 1

The Electric Car: An Overview

› On average, an electric car has ¼ the operational costs of a gasoline powered vehicle. .

› A battery pack replaces the internal combustion engine as the primary source of power.

› Electric cars can be charged by plugging into a standard outlet or using a charging station.

With almost 1,000 less moving parts than a gasoline powered vehicle, electric cars are simplistic in design and affordable to operate.

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How Do Electric Cars Compare in Price?

TOTAL COST OF OWNERSHIP (INCLUDES FEDERAL TAX CREDIT)› The Total Cost of

Ownership includes both purchase cost and operating costs.

› Over a five year period, electric vehicles cost the same as or less than an internal combustion engine vehicle for most consumers (with federal tax incentives).

› On a per mile basis, an electric car costs 3 cents to drive, whereas a gasoline powered vehicle costs 12 cents to drive.

› A BEV owner who drives 14,000 miles a year will save approximately $1,256 in fuel costs.

Though the upfront cost of electric cars can be more than gasoline powered cars, their lower operating costs make up the difference over time.

5-Year Ownership Cost 8-Year Ownership Cost$0

$5,000

$10,000

$15,000

$20,000

$25,000

$30,000

$35,000

Ford

Foc

us S

E (IC

E)Ford Focus (BEV)

Chev

y Vo

lt (P

HEV)

Hond

a Ci

vic E

X (IC

E)

Nissan Leaf (BEV)

Note: Based on 12,000 miles annually. Gasoline at $3.50 per gallon and electricity at 11 cents per kWh. Includes costs for home refueling and repair and maintenance. No as-sumption is made regarding resale value, and purchase is assumed to be cash. Excludes insurance.

Are Evs Good Cars? Awards Through 2013

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Chevy Volt Nissan Leaf Tesla Model S2012 European Car of the Year 2011-2013 IIHS Top Safety Pick 2013 Consumer Reports best car

ever tested; earned a score of 99 out of a possible 100 in the magazine's tests.

2011 Car and Driver Best 10 Cars 2011 European Car of the Year 2013 Motor Trend Magazine “Car of the Year”

2011 North American Car of the Year

2011 World Car of the Year 2013 Automobile Magazine “Automobile of the Year”

2011 Automobile Magazine “Automobile of the Year”

Ward’s Auto 10 Best Engines of 2011

2013 World Green Car of the Year.

2011 Motor Trend Magazine “Car of the Year”

2011 Top Crash Safety Rating Time Magazine Best 25 Inventions of the Year 2012 award

2011 & 2012 Consumer Reports rated it first in “owner satisfaction”

2010 Popular Mechanic’s Top / Breakthrough Products

2013 Green Car Reports' Best Car To Buy

2011 Edison Award - Gold in Personal Transportation

Time Magazine’s 50 Best Inventions of 2009

2012 CNET Tech Car of the Year for

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Electric Vehicles Models and Monthly Sales

Monthly PEV Sales› There are currently

14 PEV models available from eight automotive manufacturers.

› In the first 6 months of 2013, the Tesla Model S captured 8.4% of the luxury vehicle market; the Nissan Leaf was 3.3% of the subcompact market.

› The electric vehicle market is seeing 200% year over year growth.

Every major automaker has produced an electric vehicle and many plan to produce more models as well.

Jan-11

Mar-1

1

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1Jul-1

1

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0

2,000

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Chevy Spark Ford Fusion Energi

Honda Accord RAV4 EV

Tesla Model S Ford C-MAX Energi

Ford Focus Electric Honda Fit EV

Prius PHV BMW Active E

Mitsubishi i Smart ED

Nissan Leaf Chevrolet Volt

Source: hybridcars.com

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Electric Vehicle Sales

US PEV vs. HEV SALES BY YEAR ON MARKET› Compared to hybrids’

first years on the U.S. market - twice as many plug-in electric vehicles have been sold.

› PEVs have sold at a rate that is nearly three times the rate for hybrids in their first 3 years on the market.

› PwC Autofacts predicts that, by 2020, PEVs will be 2.8 percent of U.S. auto sales - nearing the percentage of the current hybrid market.

Electric vehicles have seen healthy sales since their introduction to the market. Electric vehicle sales are exceeding the initial sales of hybrids.

Year 1 Year 2 Year 30

20,000

40,000

60,000

80,000

100,000

PEV (2011-2013) HEV (2000-2002) PEV HEV

Uni

ts S

old

Source: hybridcars.com

The Deployment Community Concept:

To facilitate nationwide commercialization of plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) technology, the engagement and cooperation of a broad group of stakeholders is required. These stakeholders include state and city governments, infrastructure providers, utilities, automakers and other firms, service providers, and regulators. If the necessary ecosystem is not created, commercialization of this technology will proceed far more slowly.

The Electrification Coalition will work with the public and private sector leaders of Fort Collins and Loveland to help identify and implement specific deployment opportunities.

Drive Electric Northern Colorado:

The Electrification Coalition (EC), The City of Fort Collins, the City of Loveland, and Colorado State University have partnered together to create Drive Electric Northern Colorado (DENC) a first-of-its-kind, community-wide initiative

The effort will serve as a “living laboratory,” and will create a scalable and replicable model for implementing deployment communities in other areas of the country.

General Core Strategy Concepts:

• Charging infrastructure, codes, regulations, support services, time of use.EV Readiness

• Existing networks, events, institutional opportunities, speakers panel, cost/ROIEV Education

• Car library, car share, rental cars, ride along, corporate educational events, campus programs. EV Experience

• State, city, medium duty, light duty, big and small. Fleet

• OEM priority, best pricing, dealer coordination, incentives, dealer training. Consumer Purchase

Loveland and Fort Collins: Why Participate in DENC?

•Green fleet transition: cost savings, environmental benefits

•Economic development

•Create interest and national recognition

•Fort Collins and Loveland partnership

•Meeting other policy goals

•Increased energy and renewables sales

•“Get ahead of the curve”– EV grid impacts– Infrastructure planning– Best practices

Fleet Transition Case Study: Loveland, Colorado

•The City of Loveland has purchased 5 Nissan LEAFs, which use 3 charging stations at its utilities office.

Purchase

•The city used a municipal leasing purchase plan to acquire the vehicles, with a full payout (amortization to $1) over two years.

Financing

•The city estimates that, if driven over 6,000 miles per year, the total costs of owning and operating the LEAFs will result in a 41-percent reduction in cost.

Integration

•Vehicle reliability, performance, and range have exceeded initial expectations. Employees have warmed to technology.

Experience

Key First Year Results forFleet Transition

• 1st year’s utilization of one EV was approximately 4,000 miles (other one 2,000 mi)

• 1st year’s mileage reimbursement after

the EV’s were put into service for whole City dropped by $8,106

• 1st year’s vehicle O&M cost was reduced

$160,000 (10-yr projected savings @2.7M)

• Cost f each EV was $355 = $.10/mi. compared to $2.04 for ICE.

Other Case Studies

The Electrification CoalitionRevolutionizing Transportation and Achieving Energy Security

The Electrification CoalitionRevolutionizing Transportation and Achieving Energy Security

› Onlinewww.electrificationcoalition.orgwww.driveelectricnoco.org

› Download the Roadmaps www.electrificationcoalition.org/policy

› Contacts:Colorado Ben Prochazka 303-717-3657

1111 19th Street, NW Suite 406 Washington, DC 20036202.461.2360