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This presentation includes the value of the world heating market, the hot spots and cold spots in the world and the technology shift. Primarily this presentation looks at the predictions of the market until 2020.
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Trends in the World Traditional &
Renewable Heating Markets
Andrew Giles
China Refrigeration Show
April 10th 2014
2 Excellence in Market Intelligence
Agenda
Heating dominated by Europe but it is now a cold spot
Boiler markets growing and moving into condensing inside Europe, but not outside
Efficiency and Control on the top of the agenda – ErP and its impacts
Sanitary hot water heat pumps set to grow in China and USA & growth expected in Europe
Many new solution enter the market = Heat pump main renewable winner
Top 20 hvac manufacturers remain specialised by tehnology
2
3 Excellence in Market Intelligence
World Heating Market Value by region, 2012
North America
Radiators 0%
UFH 7%
WH 74%
CB 5%
DB** 14%
Total: US$ 5,658 million
Radiators 1%
UFH 6%
WH 79%
CB 2%
DB 12%
Japan
Total: US$ 5,214 million
Radiators 23%
UFH 11%
WH 23%
CB 4%
DB 39%
Europe* Total: US$ 18,897 million
• Europe includes 25 countries: Austria, Belgium , France, Germany , Greece, Italy, Netherlands,
Norway , Spain, Sweden, Switzerland , Turkey, United Kingdom, Belarus, Bulgaria, Czech
Republic, Hungary, Poland, Romania, Russia, Serbia, Slovakia, Slovenia, Ukraine
** Domestic boilers in NA doe not include furnaces.
Population (million inhabitants)
USA + Canada Europe Japan China
352 778 127 1,360
3
China Total: US$ 7,100 million
Radiators 20%
UFH 19%
WH 47%
CB 5%
DB 9%
4 Excellence in Market Intelligence
World Heating hot and cold spots, 2013
Warm spots ≥10-20%
Cold spots <0%
Hot spots ≥20%
Cool spots ≥0-10%
2012/2011 value growth
Belgium
Russia
China
North America
Turkey
Netherlands
Sweden
Spain Japan
France Germany
Italy
Norway
South Korea
Products included: Domestic boilers, commercial boilers, traditional water heaters, radiators & wet underfloor heating.
UK
4
Poland
Iran
5 Excellence in Market Intelligence
Domestic boilers - main EU heating markets
Total domestic boiler sales, 2012 - 2017
-
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
1,600
1,800
2012
2013
2017
Sales will pick up in
most European
markets
‘000 units
5
6 Excellence in Market Intelligence
Technology shift
Domestic gas & oil boiler sales, 2012 - 2017
Outside the EU market
12% 15%
88%
85%
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
7000
2012 2017
Inside the EU market ‘000 units ‘000 units
70%
85%
30%
15%
0
1000
2000
3000
4000
5000
6000
2012 2017
non-condensing
condensing
6
7 Excellence in Market Intelligence
ErP - Impact on products
Increase in Combined and Hybrid systems Eco Design
A +++ ≥150%
A ++ ≥125%
A + ≥98%
A ≥90%
B ≥82%
C ≥75%
D ≥36%
E ≥34%
Cogeneration Gas HP
Condensing
boilers
Non-
condensing
boilers
Ground /Water to
water HP
Air to water HP
From 26/9/2015
products with Label
D to G are no longer
allowed to be sold
Hybrid Heat Pumps
Combined CB + ST system
+ enhanced Controls
Fuel cell
Labels mandatory from Sep. 2015
7
8 Excellence in Market Intelligence
Combining systems
Product label
High efficiency
gas boiler
Solar thermal
system (VT)
Temperature
controls
System label example:
89%
6%
4%
+
+
System
efficiency 99%
A + ≥98%
System label
Separate labelling for
Space Heating and SHW.
8
9 Excellence in Market Intelligence
World Heat Pump 2020 Outlook
9
22% 17%
10%
19%
7%
15%
4% 6%
18% 18%
7% 1%
51%
0% 0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
-
100,000
200,000
300,000
400,000
500,000
600,000
700,0002012 2020 CAGR 2012-2020
27%
0%
5%
10%
15%
20%
25%
30%
China
-
2,000,000
4,000,000
6,000,000
8,000,000
Sales volume per country with CAGR 2012 - 2020 growth units
growth units
10 Excellence in Market Intelligence
European Heat Pump market
2012 – 2017
CAGR
2012 – 2017
Cylinder-
integrated WH:
17%
Split:
14%
Exhaust-air:
1%
Monobloc:
5%
Ground /
Water: 1%
2013 Ground/Water sales:
64,200
Split: 84,300
Monobloc: 78,800
Cylinder-integrated WH:
156,300 Exhaust air:
13,800
Based on data for: Austria, Belgium, France, Germany, Italy, Netherlands, Poland, Spain, Switzerland, UK
10
Split: 153,700
Monobloc: 73,200
-
20,000
40,000
60,000
80,000
100,000
120,000
140,000
160,000
180,000
Cylinderintegrated HPWH
Split A/W Monoblock A/W Exhaust air HP Ground source HP
2012
2013
2017
units
11 Excellence in Market Intelligence
Up until 2020
11
Products /
technologies
reaching the
market
dfe 2009/10
– 10
2012 2015 2017 2020 2019
Launch FC (Japan)
Resid. Gas
HP
Resid.FC
in
Europe Solar
cooling
Energy
Storage
Systems
Smart Grid + Energy
Homes HEMS
CO2 VRF
CO2 HP
Micro-CHP
ICE/ Stirling Smart
Meters
2000 – 2008
Expansion of
electric HP
and
Solar
Thermals
S y s t e m I n t e g r a t i o n
Hybrid HP
12 Excellence in Market Intelligence
European heating controls
12
‘000 units
Traditional heating controls sales (DE, F, UK), 2012 / 2020
-
10,000
20,000
30,000
40,000
50,000
60,000
2012 2020
TRV other valves
dampers/actuators system controls
Room Thermostats
22% growth
72%
94%
81%
28%
6%
19%
-
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
France UK Germany
Smart home controls*
Traditional heatingcontrols
Traditional & smart home controls market, 2012
€ million
13 Excellence in Market Intelligence
How competitive are renewables
in Europe
13
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
GCB GCB+Combi ST HP HP + Combi ST Hybrid HP Fuel cell
Operating cost, € per year, 2013 (existing dwellings)
-
200
400
600
800
1,000
1,200
1,400
GCB GCB+Combi ST HP HP + Combi ST Hybrid HP Fuel cell
Germany
UK
Lifetime cost, € per year, 2013 (existing dwellings)
14 Excellence in Market Intelligence
About BSRIA Worldwide Market Intelligence
A globally recognised source of strategic market intelligence
and consultancy in the building and construction industry.
14
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