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Technology and the U.S. manufacturing renaissance -- a presentation at the European Parliamentary Technology Assessment (EPTA) conference in Oslo, Norway, Oct 28, 2014 -- organized by Teknologiradet
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U.S. Manufacturing Renaissance
EPTA Conference, October 28, 2014
Naba Barkakati, Ph.D.Chief Technologist
U.S. Government Accountability Officewww.gao.gov
U.S. Manufacturing overview
● U.S. is world's second largest manufacturer; 20% of global manufacturing output.
● Manufacturing was fifth of the U.S. economy in the 1980s, but 12.4% of GDP in 2013.
● For every $1.00 spent in manufacturing, another $1.32 is added to the economy
● U.S. manufacturing output increased 30% since the end of 2008 recession
U.S. Manufacturing Gross Output
U.S. manufacturing productivity
Positive signs:
(1) Capital spending on industrial equipment is up 14.7% annually through second quarter of 2014, the fastest increase since late 2011.(2) Factory orders for industrial machinery reached a record high during July 2014. Nondefense capital goods orders excluding aircraft also rose to a record high during August 2014.
Government programs in U.S. and other countries to support manufacturing
GLOBAL MANUFACTURING: Foreign Government Programs Differ in Some Key Respects From Those in the United States, GAO-13-365: Published: Jul 25, 2013. http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-13-365
U.S. Advanced Manufacturing Initiatives
National Network for Manufacturing Innovation (NNMI) consist of regional hubs —public-private partnerships called Institutes for Manufacturing Innovation (IMIs):● National additive manufacturing innovation (now known as America Makes
), August 2012, initial funding $50 million● Next generation power electronics, Jan 2014, $140 million● Digital manufacturing and design innovation, Feb 2014, $70 million● Lightweight & modern metals innovation, Feb 2014, $70 million
Other initiatives:● National nanotechnology initiative (NNI) -- $17.9 billion since 2003● Materials genome initiative, 2011, $250 million on R&D since launch● Clean energy manufacturing initiative● Innovative manufacturing initiative
Technological trends contributing to resurgence of U.S. manufacturing
3D Printing (Additive Manufacturing)
Human-friendly industrial robots
Nanomaufacturing
Challenges● U.S. funding gap in the middle of the innovation process● Lack of commercial or environmental, health, and safety (EHS) standards● Lack of a U.S. vision for nanomanufacturing● Prior offshoring in some industries with unintended consequences ● Threats to U.S. intellectual property
Potential Actions● Support nanotechnology R&D ● Develop international commercial nanomanufacturing standards, ● Develop revitalized, integrative, and collaborative approach to EHS issues.
Source: NANOMANUFACTURING: Emergence and Implications for U.S. Competitiveness, the Environment, and Human Health, GAO-14-181SP (Jan 31, 2014). http://www.gao.gov/products/GAO-14-181SP
Looking to the future...
● First two industrial revolutions created economic growth and prosperity for all● The third, digital revolution, promises to restructure manufacturing, but may be
more divisive -- many jobs are at high risk of being automated away, creating a split between skilled and wealthy few and the rest of the society
● Challenge for governments is to craft policies that harness the technology while minimizing the societal disruption
The third wave, Special report, The Economist, Oct 4-10, 2014: http://www.economist.com/news/special-report/21621156-first-two-industrial-revolutions-inflicted-plenty-pain-ultimately-benefited
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3Digital revolution