By: Anirban Basu Sage Policy Group, Inc. September 13th, 2013 Going Up for the Rebound On Behalf of...
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- Slide 1
- By: Anirban Basu Sage Policy Group, Inc. September 13th, 2013
Going Up for the Rebound On Behalf of MD-DC Utilities
Association
- Slide 2
- First Pitch
- Slide 3
- Historic and Projected World Output Growth 2004 through 2014*
Source: International Monetary Fund *2013-2014 data are
projections
- Slide 4
- Real GDP Growth, 20 Fastest and Slowest Growing Countries
Estimated 2013, Annual Percent Change (for available nations)
Source: IMF RankCountryRegion% RankCountryRegion% 1South Sudan
Africa 32.1166Barbados Caribbean 0.5 2Libya Middle East
20.2167Bosnia and Herzegovina Eastern Europe 0.5 3Sierra Leone
Africa 17.1168Grenada Caribbean 0.5 4Mongolia Asia 14.0169Czech
Republic Europe 0.3 5Paraguay South America 11.0170Belgium Europe
0.2 6Timor-Leste Southeast Asia 10.0171Venezuela South America 0.1
7Iraq Middle East 9.0172Luxembourg Europe 0.1 7Panama Central
America 9.0173Swaziland Africa 0.0 9The Gambia Africa 8.9174Hungary
Europe 0.0 10Mozambique Africa 8.4175France Europe -0.1 11Dem. Rep.
of the Congo Africa 8.3176Croatia Eastern Europe -0.2 12Chad Africa
8.1177Netherlands Europe -0.5 13China Asia 8.0178Islamic Republic
of Iran Middle East -1.3 13Lao P.D.R. Southeast Asia 8.0179Italy
Europe -1.5 13Cte d'Ivoire Africa 8.0180Spain Europe -1.6 16Zambia
Africa 7.8181Slovenia Eastern Europe -2.0 17Turkmenistan Central
Asia 7.7182Equatorial Guinea Africa -2.1 18Rwanda Africa
7.6183Portugal Europe -2.3 19Liberia Africa 7.5184San Marino Europe
-3.5 20Kyrgyz Republic Central Asia 7.4185Greece Europe -4.2
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- Estimated Growth in Output by Select Global Areas 2013
Projected Source: International Monetary Fund
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- Debt by Selected Country 2012 Source: IMF
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- Top 12 Stock Exchanges 2011 Growth RankExchangeIndex% Change
1NYSE GroupDJI A5.5% 2NasdaqNASDAQ Composite-1.8% 3London SEFTSE
100-5.6% 12Swiss ExchangeSwiss Market Index-7.8% 9TSX GroupS&P
TSX Composite-9.2% 8Bolsa De MedridIGBM-14.6% 6Frankfurt
SEDAX-14.7% 5EuronextCAC 40-17.0% 4Tokyo SENikkei 225-17.3% 11Hong
Kong ExchangesHang Seng Index-20.0% 7Shanghai SEShanghai
Composite-21.7% 10Borsa ItalianaFTSE MIB-25.2% Source: Yahoo!
Finance
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- Top 12 Stock Exchanges 2012 Growth RankExchangeIndex% Change
6Frankfurt SEDAX 29.1% 11Hong Kong ExchangesHang Seng Index 22.9%
4Tokyo SENikkei 225 22.9% 2NasdaqNASDAQ Composite 15.9%
5EuronextCAC 40 15.2% 12Swiss ExchangeSwiss Market Index 14.9%
10Borsa ItalianaFTSE MIB 7.8% 1NYSE GroupDJI A 7.3% 3London SEFTSE
100 5.8% 9TSX GroupS&P TSX Composite 4.0% 7Shanghai SEShanghai
Composite 3.2% 8Bolsa De MadridIBEX 35 -4.7% Source: Yahoo!
Finance
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- RankExchangeIndex% Change 4Tokyo SENikkei 225 31.3%
2NasdaqNASDAQ Composite 19.3% 12Swiss ExchangeSwiss Market 16.7%
1NYSE GroupDJI A 15.1% 5EuronextCAC 40 13.3% 6Frankfurt SEDAX 10.2%
3London SEFTSE 100 10.2% 10BorsaItalianaFTSE MIB 8.6% 8Bolsa De
MadridMadrid General 8.0% 9TSX GroupS&P TSX Composite 2.4%
11Hong Kong ExchangesHang Seng Index -0.6% 7Shanghai SEShanghai
Composite -8.8% Top 12 Stock Exchanges Year to date Growth Thru
8/16/13
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- S&P Select Sector Performance 2012 Source: Dow Jones,
Standard & Poors
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- Second Quarter Earnings for Select Corporations Earnings per
Share Source: Dow Jones, Standard & Poors SymbolQ2 2012 Q2 2013
Estimated Q2 2013 Reported SurpriseSymbolQ2 2012 Q2 2013 Estimated
Q2 2013 Reported Surprise
COF$2.20$1.74$2.13$0.39GE$0.38$0.35$0.36$0.01
BTU$0.73($0.05)$0.33$0.38VZ$0.64$0.72$0.73$0.01
VFC$1.11$1.17$1.27$0.10CMG$2.56$2.81$2.82$0.01
YHOO$0.27$0.26$0.35$0.09COH$0.86$0.89 $0.00
UTX$1.58$1.57$1.65$0.08MMM$1.66$1.71 $0.00
HON$1.14$1.21$1.28$0.07UPS$1.15$1.14$1.13($0.01)
XRX$0.26$0.24$0.27$0.03MCD$1.32$1.40$1.38($0.02)
STI$0.50$0.66$0.68$0.02TXN$0.44 $0.42($0.02)
AMD$0.05($0.12)($0.10)$0.02MSFT($0.05)$0.74$0.59($0.15)
DD$1.48$1.27$1.28$0.01FCX$0.80$0.46$0.22($0.24)
DOW$0.55$0.63$0.64$0.01CAT$2.54$1.70$1.45($0.25)
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- Federal Reserve Balance Sheet v. S&P 500 Index April 2008
August 2013 Source: Federal Reserve Bank; Yahoo Finance S&P 500
index depicted in orange
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- Source: Moodys Economy Recession Watch as of September
2013
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- Industrial Production March 2001 through July 2013 Source:
Federal Reserve The industrial production index measures the real
output of the manufacturing, mining, and electric and gas utilities
industries.
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- Gross Domestic Product 1990Q1 through 2013Q2 Source: Bureau of
Economic Analysis
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- Contributions to GDP Growth by Component Q2 2012 Q2 2013
Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis
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- Red Card/ Pink Slip
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- Net Change in U.S. Jobs, BLS January 2002 through August 2013
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics August 2013: +169K
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- Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics National Nonfarm Employment
by Industry Sector August 2012 v. August 2013 All told 2,206 K Jobs
gained
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- Cumulative Job Growth Since December 2007: Full-time v.
Part-time December 2007 August 2013 Source: Bureau of Labor
Statistics, Current Population Survey Full-time: - 5.40 million
Part-time: +3.25 million
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- Maryland Nonfarm Employment by Industry Sector Groups (SA) July
2013 v. July 2012 Absolute Change Source: Bureau of Labor
Statistics MD Total: +39.0K; +1.5% US Total (SA): +2,276K;
+1.7%
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- Baltimore-Towson MSA Nonfarm Employment by Industry Sector
Groups (NSA) July 2013 v. July 2012 Absolute Change Source: Bureau
of Labor Statistics Baltimore MSA Total: +24.5K; +1.9% MD Total
(NSA): +47.5K; +1.8% US Total (SA): +2,276K; +1.7%
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- Washington, DC-Arlington-Alexandria MSA Nonfarm Employment by
Industry Sector Groups (NSA) July 2013 v. July 2012 Absolute Change
Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics DC MSA Total: +50.6K; +1.7% US
Total (SA): +2,276K; +1.7%
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- Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics U.S. Year-over-year Percent
Change: 1.7% Employment Growth, U.S. States (SA) July 2012 v. July
2013 Percent Change RankState%RankState%RankState%
1Utah3.217Iowa1.735Hawaii1 2Arizona3.117Michigan1.735Illinois1
3Georgia2.817North Carolina1.735Kentucky1
4Colorado2.717Oregon1.735New Mexico1
4Idaho2.722California1.639Alabama0.9 4North
Dakota2.723Maryland1.539New York0.9
4Texas2.723Vermont1.539Wisconsin0.9
8Washington2.325Connecticut1.439Wyoming0.9
9Mississippi2.225Virginia1.443Maine0.8
10Minnesota227Nevada1.343West Virginia0.8 10South
Carolina228Arkansas1.245Nebraska0.7
12Florida1.928Kansas1.245Ohio0.7
12Indiana1.928Louisiana1.247Oklahoma0.6
12Montana1.928Massachusetts1.248District of Columbia0.5 12New
Jersey1.928Tennessee1.248Pennsylvania0.5 16Missouri1.833New
Hampshire1.150Rhode Island0.2 17Delaware1.733South
Dakota1.151Alaska-0.5
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- Source: Bureau of Labor Statistics U.S. Unemployment Rate: 7.4%
Unemployment Rates, U.S. States (SA) July 2013
RankStateRateRankStateRateRankStateRate 1North
Dakota318Texas6.535Arizona8 2South Dakota3.919Idaho6.635Oregon8
3Nebraska4.220Wisconsin6.837Connecticut8.1
4Hawaii4.521Maine6.937South Carolina8.1 5Utah4.621New
Mexico6.939Indiana8.4 5Vermont4.621Washington6.940Kentucky8.5
5Wyoming4.624Louisiana740Mississippi8.5
8Iowa4.825Colorado7.140Tennessee8.5 9New
Hampshire5.125Florida7.143District of Columbia8.6
10Minnesota5.225Maryland7.143New Jersey8.6
11Montana5.325Missouri7.145California8.7
11Oklahoma5.329Massachusetts7.246Georgia8.8
13Virginia5.729Ohio7.246Michigan8.8 14Kansas5.931Arkansas7.448North
Carolina8.9 15West Virginia6.231Delaware7.448Rhode Island8.9
16Alabama6.333New York7.550Illinois9.2
16Alaska6.333Pennsylvania7.551Nevada9.5
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- Unemployment Rates, 20 Largest Metros (NSA) July 2013 Source:
Bureau of Labor Statistics RankMSAUR RankMSAUR 1 Minneapolis-St.
Paul-Bloomington, MN-WI Metropolitan Statistical Area4.9 10
Baltimore-Towson, MD Metropolitan Statistical Area7.5 2
Washington-Arlington-Alexandria, DC-VA- MD-WV Metropolitan
Statistical Area5.7 12 San Diego-Carlsbad-San Marcos, CA
Metropolitan Statistical Area7.8 3 Seattle-Tacoma-Bellevue, WA
Metropolitan Statistical Area5.8 13 St. Louis, MO-IL Metropolitan
Statistical Area17.9 4 Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, TX Metropolitan
Statistical Area6.4 14 New York-Northern New Jersey-Long Island,
NY-NJ-PA Metropolitan Statistical Area8 5 Houston-Sugar
Land-Baytown, TX Metropolitan Statistical Area6.5 15
Philadelphia-Camden-Wilmington, PA-NJ- DE-MD Metropolitan
Statistical Area8.4 6 Boston-Cambridge-Quincy, MA-NH Metropolitan
NECTA6.6 16 Atlanta-Sandy Springs-Marietta, GA Metropolitan
Statistical Area8.6 7 San Francisco-Oakland-Fremont, CA
Metropolitan Statistical Area6.9 17 Chicago-Joliet-Naperville,
IL-IN-WI Metropolitan Statistical Area9.6 7 Phoenix-Mesa-Glendale,
AZ Metropolitan Statistical Area6.9 18 Los Angeles-Long Beach-Santa
Ana, CA Metropolitan Statistical Area9.8 9 Tampa-St.
Petersburg-Clearwater, FL Metropolitan Statistical Area7.3 19
Detroit-Warren-Livonia, MI Metropolitan Statistical Area10.4 10
Miami-Fort Lauderdale-Pompano Beach, FL Metropolitan Statistical
Area7.5 20 Riverside-San Bernardino-Ontario, CA Metropolitan
Statistical Area11
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- MD County Unemployment Rates July 2013 Source: Bureau of Labor
Statistics RankJurisdictionURRankJurisdictionUR 1Montgomery
County5.312Kent County7.2 2Howard County5.512Harford County7.2
3Frederick County5.915Baltimore County7.4 4Carroll
County6.216Worcester County7.6 5Queen Anne's County6.417Caroline
County8 6Calvert County6.518Cecil County8.2 7Anne Arundel
County6.619Washington County8.4 7St. Mary's County6.619Wicomico
County8.4 9Charles County6.721Allegany County8.6 10Talbot
County6.822Dorchester County10 11Prince George's
County7.123Somerset County10.4 12Garrett County7.224Baltimore
City10.8
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- Pad Save
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- 15-Year & 30-Year Fixed Mortgage Rates January 1995 through
August 2013 Source: Freddie Mac
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- Messages from Federal Open Market Committee, July 2013 ( T)he
Committee decided to continue adding policy accommodation by
purchasing additional MBS at a pace of $40 billion per month and
longer-term Treasury securities at a pace of $45 billion per
month...... the Committee reaffirmed its intention to keep the
target federal funds rate at.00 to percent... exceptionally low
range for the federal funds rate will be appropriate at least as
long as the unemployment rate remains above 6 percent. Source:
Federal Reserve Bank, Bloomberg. (June. 28 th, 2013). Lacker Says
Markets to Stay Volatile as Fed Debates Tapering
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- U.S. New Home Sales January 1999 through July 2013 Source:
Economy.com, Census Bureau
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- U.S. Housing Starts January 1999 through July 2013 Source:
Census Bureau
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- S&P/Case-Shiller Home Price Indices for Select Metros June
2013, 12-Month Percentage Change Source: Standard & Poors
- Slide 34
- Put me in, Coach
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- Conference Board Consumer Confidence Index 2005 August 2013
Source: Conference Board
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- U.S. Retail and Food Service Sales January 2002 through August
2013 Source: Census Bureau
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- Sales Growth by Type of Business August 2012 v. August 2013*
Source: Census Bureau *August 2013 advanced estimate
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- National Vehicle Sales June 2004 through August 2013 (SAAR)
Source: Autodata Corp.
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- Conference Board Leading Economic Indicators Index August 2007
through July 2013 Source: Conference Board
- Slide 40
- Fourth Quarter As predicted, first half of year was quite soft
in terms of economic expansion as sequestration and tax hikes make
their mark; Second half of year should be better, with growth
likely to average a shade above 2 percent;. Many headwinds remain
and the recovery could easily falter; Black swan threats: (1) Iran
(2) Israel/Iran (3) Europe; Maryland has held its own to date, but
there are major discrepancies between the household survey and the
establishment survey one of them is probably wrong; and We are an
increasingly part- time nation that looks like a problem.
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- Thank You You can always reach me at abasu@sagepolicy.com
abasu@sagepolicy.com Please look for updates of information at
www.sagepolicy.com. www.sagepolicy.com Also, if you need us in a
hurry, we are at 410.522.7243 (410.522.SAGE) Please contact us when
you require economic research & policy analysis.