Predicting Recidivism from Internalizing and Externalizing Behaviors

Predicting Recidivism from Internalizing and Externalizing Behaviors

Presented at the UROP Symposium

by

Jada Bittle

School of Social EcologyUniversity of California, Irvine

May 31, 2008

Mentally Ill Offenders in Criminal Justice System

Each year, half a million offenders with serious mental illnesses are placed on probation (Skeem, Encandela, & Eno Louden, 2003).

Probationers with mental illness (PMIs) are at double the risk of failing probation compared to their relatively healthy counterparts (Dauphinot, 1996).

“Failing” Probation

Probation Violations Technical violation: a violation of the terms imposed

by the court or the probation officer. These violations do not involve new criminal charges.

Drinking alcohol Failure to report to probation officer Failure to complete rehab or community service

New Offense: probationer is arrested and new criminal charges are brought against the probationer.

“Failing” Probation, Cont.

Probation Violation Penalties Once the probationer has violated the terms or

conditions of his probation, the judge can: Reinstate probation House arrest Extend Probation Probation Revocation (send the probationer back

to jail)

Risk Factor for Supervision Failure

Research suggests that PMIs have functional impairments that complicate their ability to follow conditions of probation, particularly:

Paying fees Reporting to probation Taking medication Working (Dauphinot, 1996; Skeem & Eno Louden, 2006)

Risk Factors for Supervision Failure

Research also suggests that supervision failure may be intrinsic to the individual, i.e. his disposition or personality (Skeem & Eno Louden, 2006).

Personality and Internalizing/Externalizing

Personality Features

•negative affectivity (neuroticism)

•overactive anxiety-related behaviors

•novelty-seeking

•overactive approach-related behaviors

Internalizing Externalizing(Fowles, 1993; Rothbart & Bates, 1998)

Why Study Internalizing and Externalizing?

Therefore, studying personality traits in the context of internalizing and externalizing behaviors could play a crucial role in understanding supervision failure among PMIs.

Internalizing Symptomology

Problems from within the individual and namely reflects affective and/or emotional states.

Anxiety Depression Suicidal thoughts

(Krueger, Caspi, Moffit & Silva, 1998.)

Externalizing Symptomology

A cluster of problem behaviors that are characterized by actions directed outwards, most often towards other people.

Aggression Violence Arguing Substance use

(Krueger, Caspi, Moffitt & Silva, 1998).

The Present Study

This study seeks to examine how two latent constructs, internalizing and externalizing, relate to outcomes

among PMIs.

Aims of Present Study

1. Determine how individuals high and low on externalizing and internalizing differ on violations, arrests, and revocation at six months.

2. Determine how well internalizing and externalizing make unique contributions to the prediction of the recidivism indices.

3. Determine if there is an interactive effect for internalizing and externalizing on recidivism.

Hypothesis…

These two behavioral constellations are differently related to recidivism in PMIs:

Internalizing symptomology will more strongly predict technical violations.

Externalizing symptomology is expected to predict criminal behavior (revocations and arrests).

Methods

PMIs participated in Dr. Jennifer Skeem’s multi-site study on probation and mental health.

All 358 participants were interviewed at baseline and 6 months later.

Personality Assessment Inventory (PAI; Morey, 1991). Evaluates adult personality and psychopathology Series of 344 statements

Four point scale ranging from “false, not at all true,” “slightly true,” “mainly true,” and “very true”.

Internalizing Scores

A composite of the: Anxiety scale

“It’s often hard for me to enjoy myself because I am worrying about things” (Question 65).

Depression scale “I’ve lost interest in things I used to enjoy”

(Question 166). Anxiety-related disorder scale

“Sometimes I get so nervous that I’m afraid I’m going to die” (Question 305).

Externalizing Scores

A composite of the: Antisocial behavior scale

“Sometimes I am very violent” (Question 101). Drug scale

“Sometimes I use drugs to feel better” (Question 22).

Alcohol scale “My drinking seems to cause problems in my

relationships with others” (Question 135).

Recidivism

Assessed at six months and included: Technical Violations

Failure to report to probation officer Failure to pay fines

Arrests New offenses

Probation revocation Sent back to jail

Participants

Sample: 358 PMIs 58% male, 42%

female Average age: 37 yrs

old49%

9%

38%

1%1% 2%

Caucasian

African American

Hispanic

Asian/ PacificIslanderAmerican Indian

Other

Participants Cont…

19%

15%

41%

25%

Bipolar

Schizophrenia

Depression

Other

36% had a co-occurring substance abuse diagnosis.

75% of the sample had been arrested three or more times.

INT and EXT scores were correlated at r=.25, p<.001.

The only significant difference between high and low groups was for externalization and arrests.

* *

* p<.05

Results for Aim 1

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Violations Arrests Revocations

High Externalizing

Low Externalizing* *

% of PMIs

There was a trend toward internalizing predicting violations.

* *

Results for Aim 2

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

Violations Arrests Revocations

High Internalizing

Low Internalizing

% of PMIs

Externalizing uniquely predicted arrest.

* *

* p<.05

Results for Aim 2

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

Violations Arrests Revocations

High Externalizing

Low Externalizing* *

% of PMIs

Results of Aim 3

There was no significant internalizing*externalizing interaction

for any of the three recidivism indices.

Discussion

The results of this study suggest that: Internalizing symptoms may be more

associated with violations. Externalizing symptoms may be more

associated with arrests.

Present Study’s Contribution

Help inform treatment programs that focus on factors linked with externalizing.

Assist probation officers by providing a framework from which to assess and trouble-shoot non-compliance.

Acknowledgments

A Big “Thank You” to:

Dr. Jennifer SkeemSarah ManchakPat Kennealy

Dr. Val JennessResearch Participants

UROPPsychology and Law Research

Lab aka “ The Skeem Team”

Contact Information

Jada BittleDepartment of Criminology, Law & Society

Department of Psychology and Social Behavior Social Ecology Honors Program

University of California, Irvine

jbittle@uci.edu

Thanks!