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www.swslim.org.uk
Recession Briefing
NIACE SeminarJanuary 2010
Ben NeildAssistant Director, SLIM
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UK GDP
Source: ONS
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Unemployment, SW
Source: ONS / BBC
1973-761990-93
1979-83
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Unemployment Lagging Indicator
Source: LFS, ONS
GDP & Unemployment - 1990's
-1.5
-1
-0.5
0
0.5
1
1.5
2
1990 Q
1Q
2Q
3Q
41991 Q
1Q
2Q
3Q
41992 Q
1Q
2Q
3Q
41993 Q
1Q
2Q
3Q
41994 Q
1Q
2Q
3Q
41995 Q
1Q
2Q
3Q
41996 Q
1Q
2Q
3Q
41997 Q
1Q
2Q
3Q
41998 Q
1Q
2Q
3Q
41999 Q
1Q
2Q
3Q
42000 Q
1Q
2Q
3Q
42001 Q
1Q
2Q
3Q
42002 Q
1Q
2Q
3Q
42003 Q
1Q
2Q
3Q
4
GD
P G
row
th,
Qtr
on
Qtr
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
Un
em
plo
ym
en
t, %
of
16+
po
pu
lati
on
GDP
Unemployment
Estimates
19 Quarters of positive growth before unemployment returns to pre-
recession levels
We have now had 6 successive quarter s of negative growth
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Unemployment Lagging Indicator
Source: LFS, ONS
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LFS & Claimant CountUnemployment, SW
Source: LFS
% Working age population in Employment
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Employment Volume & Rate
Source: LFS
% Working age population
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Migration
Source: LFS
National Insurance Number Registrations
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Involuntary part-time working
Source: LFS
Number of people in the South West working part-time because they can't find a full-time job
Q3 2008 Q4 2008 Q1 2009 Q2 2009 Q3 2009South West 55,515 74,135 72,021 70,613 72,512
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Employment Volume & Rate
Source: LFS
All people aged 16+
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Employment Rates
Source: LFS
Annual Change in % Employment Rates by Age Group, South West, to March 2009
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ILO Unemployment
Source: LFS
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Employment Rate, SW
Source: LFS
% Working age population in Employment, Sept – Nov 2009
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Claimant Count Rates by region
Source: JC+ / NOMIS
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Redundancies
Source: JC+ administrative data
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Redundancies
Source: JC+ administrative data
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Vacancies
Source: JC+ / NOMIS
Notified to Jobcentre plus, monthly, SW
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Claimants per vacancy - SW
Source: JC+ / NOMIS
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Claim duration
Source: JC+ / NOMIS
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Claim duration
Source: JC+ / NOMIS
Proportion of claimants leaving JSA each month, by duration of unemployment, April 2008 to Present
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Employment Rates
Source: LFS
South West by gender, indexed, Aug 08 = 100
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Gender – Claimant Count
Source: JC+ / NOMIS
South West Claimant Count by gender
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Impact on Sectors
Source: JC+ administrative data
6.7%
4.5%4.1%
3.3%
1.9% 1.8% 1.8%1.5% 1.5% 1.4% 1.4% 1.4%
0.8%0.5% 0.4% 0.4%
0.2% 0.1%0.00%
1.00%
2.00%
3.00%
4.00%
5.00%
6.00%
7.00%
8.00%
Notified Redundancies as a Percentage of Employment, by Sector, South West
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Age – Claimant CountSouth West, Indexed, April 2008 = 100
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Claimant Count by Age
Source: NOMIS / JC+
0.00%
1.00%
2.00%
3.00%
4.00%
5.00%
6.00%
7.00%
% p
opul
ation
Aug 08
Aug 09
+ 3% of age band
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LFS Unemployment
Source: NOMIS / JC+
16 to 24 year olds, UK & English Regions
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Impact on occupations
Composition of Employment & Claimant Count, South West, August 2009
% Claimants % Employment
Managers and Senior Officials6% 16%
Professional Occupations5% 12%
Associate Professional and Technical Occupations7% 15%
Administrative and Secretarial Occupations11% 11%
Skilled Trades Occupations13% 12%
Personal Service Occupations5% 9%
Sales and Customer Service occupations15% 8%
Process, Plant and Machine Operatives11% 6%
Elementary Occupations27% 11%
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Projected change in employment by occupation,
2007 - 2017
Composition of Employment & Claimant Count, South West, August 2009
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