StrataNY_2011_ferrari

Atmospheric Analytics

Michael Ferrari

CSC

Atmospheric Analytics

How has weather & climate data availability changed?

How are smart businesses are relying on, and profiting from,

the ubiquitous weather & climate data?

WCI: Technology/Methodology transfer

What is on the horizon/NASA-NCCS….?

Source: NASA Goddard Space Flight Center

Source: NASA Goddard Space Flight Center

Dimbokro, Cote-d’Ivoire

Mount Washington, NH

Weather Black Swans

Source: Weather Trends International

From J. Schnase, NASA

Source: Lloyds, Forecasting Risk, 2011

Source: National Center for Environmental Prediction

Modern Era Retrospective analysis for Research Applications

Source: NASA Goddard Space

Flight Center, MERRA

MERRA:

Publicly available,

28 Physical Parameters

1979-present

Network Analysis – Reanalysis data application

Source: Elsner et al, Geophys. Res. Ltrs, 2009

Applying WCI to Global Food Supply & Price Risk Management

(A)

(C)

(B) (E)

(D)(A)

(E)

(D)

(C)

(B)

(F)

Food Production

Food Production

Extreme Events

(Pakistan Floods)

Food Production

Extreme Events

(Pakistan Floods)

Monsoon Activity

New Business Models will emerge

Combining Strata with Where

New Business Models will emerge

Mining Environmental Sensor Network data

Source: NSF CyberInfrastructure Report, 2003

New Business Models will emerge

Scientific Data Services:

Climate Data Service

WDGD?

Apply Climate &

Weather Informatics

to

Do Things That Matter

35/40

MERRA Diagnostics – Reanalysis data for applied models

MERRA Diagnostics – Reanalysis data for applied models

WCI Summary

• Applying climate indices to scenario planning is the classic case of ‘Decision Making Under Uncertainty’.

However, using a traditional forecast as an operational tool is difficult beyond a 7-10 day window (introduction

of error, etc.)

• With more data and more tools to analyze data, current climate indices can be applied, as well as new climate

indices developed (teleconnections)

• Risk Quantification becomes an operational issue as well as a financial issue

• NASA/NOAA data repositories are a wonderful testbed for the applied data scientist

• Use reanalysis information (NASA/NOAA) to monitor, and adjust, prior assumptions. Flexibility enables

robustness.

WWDD?

Thanks

• John Schnase, PhD

• Phil Webster, PhD

• Dan Walker, PhD

• Edd Dumbill

• Mac Slocum