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Commodity Research Report 12 September 2016 Ways2Capital

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Page 1: Commodity Research Report 12 September  2016 Ways2Capital

E

Page 2: Commodity Research Report 12 September  2016 Ways2Capital

MCX DAILY LEVELS ✍

DAILY EXPIRY R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4

ALUMINIUM 30-SEP-2016 109 108 107 107 106 106 105 104 104

COPPER 31-SEP-2015 318 316 314 312 312 310 308 308 306

CRUDE OIL 19-SEP-2016 3861 3611 3361 3248 3111 2998 2861 2611 2361

GOLD 05-OCT-2016 31712 31546 31380 31299 31214 31133 31048 30882 30716

LEAD 30-SEP-2016 131 130 129 128 128 127 126 125 124

NATURAL GAS 26-AUG-2016 200 196 192 190 188 186 184 180 176

NICKEL 30-SEP-2016 729 716 703 697 690 684 677 664 651

SILVER 04-SEP-2015 48265 47630 46995 46594 46360 45959 45725 45090 44455

ZINC 05-DEC-2016 159 157 155 154 153 152 151 149 147

MCX WEEKLY LEVELS ✍

WEEKLY EXPIRY R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4

ALUMINIUM 30-SEP-2016 112 110 108 107 106 105 104 102 100

COPPER 31-AUG-2015 327 322 317 315 312 310 307 302 297

CRUDE OIL 19-AUG-2015 3381 3306 3131 3182 3156 3107 3081 3006 2931

GOLD 05-OCT-2015 32834 32290 31746 31481 31202 30937 30658 30114 29570

LEAD 30-SEP-2015 146 140 134 131 128 125 123 117 111

NATURAL GAS 26-AUG-2015 221 209 197 192 185 180 173 161 149

NICKEL 30-SEP-2016 779 747 715 704 683 672 651 616 587

SILVER 05-DEC-2016 51418 49834 48250 47222 46666 45638 45082 43498 41914

ZINC 30-SEP-2016 172 166 160 157 154 151 148 142 136

Monday, 12 September 2016

Page 3: Commodity Research Report 12 September  2016 Ways2Capital

WEEKLY MCX CALL

BUY CRUDEOIL SEP ABOVE 3120 TGT 3170 SL 3070

PREVIOUS WEEK CALL

BUY GOLD OCT ABOVE 3100 TGT 31350 SL 31097 - TGT ACHEIVED

FOREX DAILY LEVELS ✍

DAILY EXPIRY R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4

USDINR 29 AUG 2016 67.80 67.60 67.40 67.18 67 66.85 66.65 66.45 66.20

EURINR 29 AUG 2016 76.20 76 75.80 75.60 75.20 75 74.80 74.60 74.40

GBPINR 29 AUG 2016 89.85 89.60 89.35 89.15 89 88.85 88.65 88.45 88.20

JPYINR 29 AUG 2016 66.20 65.80 65.60 65.60 65.20 65 64.80 64.60 64.20

FOREX WEEKLY LEVELS✍

DAILY EXPIRY R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4

USDINR 29 AUG 2016 68.15 67.85 67.55 67.22 66.95 66.65 66.30 66 65.75

EURINR 29 AUG 2016 76.60 76.30 76 75.70 75 74.70 74.40 74.10 73.80

GBPINR 29 AUG 2016 90.30 89.95 89.65 89.25 89 88.75 88.30 88 87.70

JPYINR 29 AUG 2016 66.40 66.10 65.80 65.60 65.30 65 64.70 64.40 64.10

WEEKLY FOREX CALL

BUY GBPINR SEP ANBOVE 89.40 TGT 89.90 SL 88.80

PREVIOUS WEEK CALL

BUY GBPINRSEP ABOVE 89.20 TGT 89.77 SL 88.64 - CLOSED AT 89.05

BUY JPYINR SEP ABOVE 65.49 TGT 66.10 SL 64.98 - MADE HIHG OF 65.69

Page 4: Commodity Research Report 12 September  2016 Ways2Capital

NCDEX DAILY LEVELS✍

DAILY EXPIRY

DATE

R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4

SYOREFIDR 20-AUG-2015 674 669 664 661 660 657 655 651 646

SYBEANIDR 20-AUG-2015 3591 3548 3505 3477 3462 3434 3419 3376 3333

RMSEED 18-SEP-2015 4988 4922 4856 4813 4790 4747 4724 4658 4592

JEERAUNJHA 18-SEP-2015 19530 19155 18780 18545 18405 18170 18030 17655 17280

GUARSEED10 20-OCT-2015 3829 3769 3709 3678 3649 3619 3589 3529 3469

TMC 20-SEP-2015 7922 7856 7790 7754 7724 7688 7658 7592 7526

NCDEX WEEKLY LEVELS✍

WEEKLY EXPIRY

DATE

R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4

SYOREFIDR 20-OCT-2016 702 687 672 664 657 649 642 627 612

SYBEANIDR 20-OCT-2016 3635 3526 3417 3369 3308 3260 3199 3090 2981

RMSEED 20-OCT-2016 5265 5090 4915 4807 4740 4632 4565 4390 4215

JEERAUNJHA 20-OCT-2016 21170 20080 18990 18295 17900 17205 16810 15720 14630

GUARSEED10 20-OCT-2016 4201 3987 3773 3653 3559 3439 3345 3131 2917

TMC 20-OCT-2016 7647 7397 7147 6995 6897 6745 6647 6397 6147

WEEKLY NCDEX CALL

BUY JEERA OCT ABOVE 17600 TGT 18000 SL 17200

PREIOUS WEEEK CALL

BUY JEERA OCT ABOVE 18300 TGT 18803 SL 17798 - SL TRIGGERED

BUY MAIZERABI SEP ABOVE 1550 TGT 1609 SL 1489 - CLOSED AT 1574

Page 5: Commodity Research Report 12 September  2016 Ways2Capital

MCX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS

GLOBAL UPDATE✍

Oil prices extended gains on Tuesday, buoyed after top producers Russia and Saudi Arabia agreed to

cooperate on stabilizing the oil market, but a lack of immediate action to rein in output capped gains.

London Brent crude for November delivery was up 22 cents at $ 47.85 a barrel by 0643 GMT, after

settling up 80 cents on Monday. The global benchmark on Monday hit a near one-week high of $

49.40 after the Russia-Saudi news, but has since pared gains after Saudi Energy Minister Khalid al-

Falih said there was no need now to freeze production. He added, however, that freezing output was

one of the preferred possibilities. NYMEX crude for October delivery did not settle on Monday due to

U.S. Labor Day holiday. It was trading roughly 30 cents higher from late Monday, up 94 cents at $

45.38 a barrel. It rose as high as $ 46.53 on Monday, the highest since Aug. 30. Russian Energy

Minister Alexander Novak said Russia and Saudi Arabia were moving towards a strategic energy

partnership and that a high level of trust would allow them to address global challenges. The

Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and non-OPEC producers such as Russia will hold

informal talks in Algeria later in September. "The two nations' cooperation is understandable," said

Kaname Gokon, a strategist with Okato Shoji Co Ltd. "But when oil output is reduced, other producers

would receive the benefit. There is still a question whether they can cut production for a sustainable

period." Several OPEC producers have called for an output freeze to rein in the glut, which arose as

supplies from high-cost producers such as the United States soared. Russia's Novak said outright oil

production cuts may also be discussed in Algeria.

Gold gained in Asia on Tuesday as investors continued to mull the chances of a Fed rate hike this

month in the wake of weaker than expected U.S. jobs data at the end of last week. Gold for December

delivery on the Comex division of the New York Mercantile Exchange rose 0.31% to $ 1,330.85 a troy

ounce. Silver futures on the Comex for December delivery added 1.35% to $ 19.627 a troy ounce,

while copper futures were last quoted flat at $ 2.082 a pound. Overnight, gold prices held steady near a

one-week high during North American hours on Monday, as trade volumes were expected to remain

light with many investors in the U.S. away for the Labor Day holiday. On Friday, gold rallied to a one-

week peak of $1,334.00 as disappointing U.S. employment data diminished the likelihood that the

Federal Reserve will raise interest rates at its policy meeting later this month. The U.S. economy

added 151,000 jobs in August, disappointing expectations for an increase of 180,000 and slowing from

the 275,000 positions created in July, the Labor Department said Friday. The unemployment rate

remained unchanged at 4.9% this month, confounding expectations for a downtick to 4.8%, while

average hourly earnings rose 0.1%, below expectations for a 0.2% increase. While the disappointing

data dampened expectations for a near-term rate hike, investors still believe the Fed will hike rates at

least once before the end of the year, most likely in December. The precious metal is sensitive to

Page 6: Commodity Research Report 12 September  2016 Ways2Capital

moves in U.S. rates, which lift the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as bullion,

while boosting the dollar in which it is priced. A report on U.S. service sector growth on Tuesday will

be the highlight of the holiday-shortened week, as Fed officials recently indicated that the pace of

interest rate increases will be data-dependent. Besides the services PMI, the shortened week could be a

relatively quiet one with Wednesday's Fed Beige Book release and JOLTS jobs turnover data also in

focus.

Brent crude prices edged lower during Europe's session on Tuesday, as optimism surrounding an

agreement between Saudi Arabia and Russia to stabilize the oil market began to fade. On the ICE

Futures Exchange in London, Brent oil for November delivery declined 35 cents, or 0.7%, to trade at $

47.28 a barrel by 4:15AM ET. Brent spiked by more than 5% on Monday to touch an intraday peak of

$ 49.40 after Saudi Arabia and Russia pledged to work together to support the market. But prices

pared gains later in the session to end well off the daily high at $ 47.63 amid disappointment over the

details of the agreement. The world’s two largest oil producers said they will set up a working group to

monitor the oil market and come up with recommendations to promote stability. Saudi Arabian oil

minister Khalid al-Falih and his Russian counterpart, Alexander Novak, will meet in Algeria in

October and in Vienna in November to discuss how to cooperate under the new agreement. The

Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries, led by Saudi Arabia and other big Middle East

crude exporters, will meet non-OPEC producers led by Russia at informal talks in Algeria between

September 26 and 28 to discuss a freeze output. Despite the supportive remarks, chances that the

upcoming meeting in late September would yield any action to reduce the global glut appeared

minimal, according to market experts. Instead, most believe that oil producers will continue to monitor

the market and possibly postpone freeze talks to the official OPEC meeting in Vienna on November

30. An attempt to jointly freeze production levels earlier this year failed after Saudi Arabia backed out

over Iran's refusal to take part of the initiative, underscoring the difficulty for political rivals to forge

consensus. Meanwhile, crude oil for October delivery on the New York Mercantile Exchange was at $

45.01 a barrel, 57 cents, or 1.3%, higher than its last settlement on Friday.

Oil prices trimmed earlier gains during North American hours on Monday, after an announcement

from Saudi Arabian and Russian officials failed to live up to market expectations. On the ICE Futures

Exchange in London, Brent oil for November delivery jumped more than 5% to touch a daily peak of

$ 49.40 a barrel earlier in the day before giving back some gains to trade at $ 47.18 by 8:42 AM ET,

up just 35 cents, or 0.75%. Meanwhile, crude oil for October delivery on the New York Mercantile

Exchange tacked on 77 cents, or 1.74%, to trade at $ 44.92 a barrel after soaring more than 5% to a

session high of $ 46.53. Oil prices spiked sharply on reports that Saudi Arabia and Russia planned to

make a joint statement at the G20 meeting in China on Monday. But futures started to give back some

gains amid disappointment over the details of the agreement. The world’s two largest oil producers

said they will set up a working group to monitor the oil market and come up with recommendations to

Page 7: Commodity Research Report 12 September  2016 Ways2Capital

promote stability, according to reports. Saudi Arabian oil minister Khalid al-Falih and his Russian

counterpart, Alexander Novak, will meet in Algeria in October and in Vienna in November to discuss

how to cooperate under the new agreement, the reports said. OPEC members are set to discuss a

potential production cap at an informal meeting on the sidelines of an energy conference in Algeria

between September 26-28. On Friday, crude settled 3% higher after Russian President Vladimir Putin

said in an interview with Bloomberg that an agreement between major oil exporters to freeze output

would be the right decision to support the market. His comments followed similar rhetoric from Saudi

Arabia's foreign minister Adel al-Jubeir, who reportedly said on Thursday that some sort of a

production agreement could be made between OPEC and non-OPEC producers at this month's

meeting. Despite the supportive remarks, chances that the upcoming meeting in late September would

yield any action to reduce the global glut appeared minimal, according to market experts. Instead,

most believe that oil producers will continue to monitor the market and possibly postpone freeze talks

to the official OPEC meeting in Vienna on November 30. An attempt to jointly freeze production

levels earlier this year failed after Saudi Arabia backed out over Iran's refusal to take part of the

initiative, underscoring the difficulty for political rivals to forge consensus.

U.S. natural gas futures fell to the lowest level in nearly two weeks on Monday, as traders reacted to

the reality that higher summer demand for the commodity is coming to an end. Demand for natural gas

tends to rise in the summer months as warmer temperatures increase the need for gas-fired electricity

to power air conditioning. But with autumn due to start on September 22, power burns to feed air

conditioning demand have probably peaked for now, market analysts said. Natural gas for delivery in

October on the New York Mercantile Exchange touched an intraday low of $ 2.734 per million British

thermal units, the weakest level since August 23. It was last at $ 2.738 by 10:42AM ET, down 2.6

cents, or 0.94%. Trade volumes were expected to remain light on Monday, with many investors in the

U.S. away for the Labor Day holiday. Trading in natural gas ends at 1:00PM ET, while U.S. stock

markets are closed for trading all day. Summer heat has waned and cooler temperatures beckon with

the approach of autumn, when gas demand typically slackens and prices fall. Total gas in storage

currently stands at 3.401 trillion cubic feet, according to the U.S. Energy Information Administration,

7.0% higher than levels at this time a year ago and 9.8% above the five-year average for this time of

year. Unless intense late-summer heat boosts demand from power plants, stockpiles could possibly test

physical storage limits of 4.3 trillion cubic feet at the end of October.

Oil prices inched lower on Wednesday as market participants remained skeptical that producers will

reach an agreement to freeze output to rein in a global supply glut. London Brent crude for November

delivery was down 4 cents at $ 47.22 a barrel by 2018 EST, after settling down 37 cents on Tuesday.

NYMEX crude for October delivery was down 8 cents at $ 44.75, after settling up 39 cents on

Tuesday. Oil prices hit a one-week high on Monday after Russia and Saudi Arabia agreed to cooperate

on stabilizing the oil market, but they have since fallen due to the mounting uncertainty over a deal.

Page 8: Commodity Research Report 12 September  2016 Ways2Capital

The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and non-OPEC producers such as Russia will

hold informal talks in Algeria on Sept. 26-28, but many in the market are skeptical a deal will happen.

Saudi Arabia's Foreign Minister Adel al-Jubeir said on Tuesday it would go along with a freeze in oil

output if other producers agreed one but cautioned that Iran, which is aiming to raise output to pre

sanction levels, could foil any attempt to limit output. Iran, however, signaled on Tuesday it was

prepared to work with Saudi Arabia and Russia to prop up oil prices as it began to bargain with OPEC

on possible exemptions from output limits. On demand, traders said Genscape data showed a draw of

some 700,000 barrels last week at the Cushing, Oklahoma, delivery hub for U.S. crude futures. U.S.

commercial crude inventories likely fell by 100,000 barrels last week after rising for two straight

weeks, a preliminary Reuters poll showed on Tuesday. Gasoline stocks likely fell by 500,000 barrels,

while distillate stocks are forecast to have increased by 1 million barrels, the poll showed. The

American Petroleum Institute is set to release the weekly oil data on Wednesday, delayed a day from

usual due to the Labor Day holiday on Monday.

Gold prices held mostly steady in Asia on Wednesday as investors took profits after a rally spurred by

diminished expectations for a Fed rate hike this month. Gold for December delivery on the Comex

division of the New York Mercantile Exchange traded between small gains and losses around $

1,353.75 a troy ounce. Overnight, gold prices extended gains from Europe's session in North American

trade on Tuesday, touching a more than one-week high amid reduced expectations that the Federal

Reserve will raise interest rates at its policy meeting later this month. According to polls Fed Rate

Monitor Tool, investors are pricing in an 18% chance of a rate hike at the Fed's September 20-21

meeting in wake of last week's disappointing U.S. employment data. Investors returning from the long

Labor Day weekend looked ahead to fresh economic data for more hints on the timing of a U.S. rate

hike. The U.S. Institute of Supply Management released data on August service sector activity that

came in at 51.4, well below the 55.0 expected. The data takes on extra importance after the ISM

manufacturing survey published last week showed a shocking contraction in activity. While

expectations for a near-term rate hike have been scaled back, investors still believe the Fed will hike

rates at least once before the end of the year, most likely in December. The precious metal is sensitive

to moves in U.S. rates, which lift the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as bullion,

while boosting the dollar in which it is priced. A gradual path to higher rates is seen as less of a threat

to gold prices than a swift series of increases.

Iran signalled on Tuesday it was prepared to work with Saudi Arabia and Russia to prop up oil prices

as Tehran began to bargain with OPEC on possible exemptions from output limits. Iran has been the

main factor preventing an output deal between OPEC and Non-OPEC Russia as Tehran argued it

should be excluded from any such agreement before its production recovers from Western sanctions

that ended in January. Iran's rival Saudi Arabia has said it would agree to a deal only if Tehran took

part. However, with Iranian production rising close to pre-sanctions levels, Riyadh has signaled in

Page 9: Commodity Research Report 12 September  2016 Ways2Capital

recent weeks it is ready to compromise. Russia has also said it was ready to accept certain exemptions,

especially as Iran was close to reaching output levels of 4 million barrels per day after which it could

no longer boost production further. On Monday, Russia and Saudi Arabia signed a pact agreeing to

work together to help balance the oil market but giving little detail on possible action to help eradicate

a global glut. On Tuesday, Iranian Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh met OPEC Secretary-General

Mohammed Barkindo in Tehran and said he would support any measure to stabilize crude prices at

around $ 50-60 per barrel. "Iran wants a stable market and therefore any measure that helps the

stabilization of the oil market is supported by Iran," Zanganeh said. OPEC members will meet on the

sidelines of the International Energy Forum, which groups producers and consumers, in Algeria on

Sept. 26-28, during which they are expected to discuss a possible output freeze. Russia is also

expected to attend the IEF. Hit by global oversupply, oil prices collapsed to as low as $27 per barrel

earlier this year from as high as $115 in mid-2014, but have since recovered to around $47. "We

support oil prices between $50 and $60 per barrel," Zanganeh said. Most OPEC producers and Russia

are pumping at capacity. Only Iran and potentially Iraq could raise output in the medium term. The

key question for a potential freeze, therefore, would be at which levels production is frozen. If

production is stabilized at early-2015 levels, it would effectively mean a cut as most producers -

including Saudi Arabia, Russia, Iraq and Iran - have ramped up output since then. Seyed Mohsen

Ghamsari, director of international affairs at National Iranian Oil Co, said on Monday Iran was ready

to raise production to 4 million bpd in the next two to three months depending on market demand.

A source familiar with Iranian thinking said on Tuesday the Saudi-Russian pact was making a global

output agreement more likely. "Surely Iran at some point reached production capacity of slightly more

than 4 million bpd, but actual production just before the imposition of sanctions was below 4 million,"

the source said. "The shuttle diplomacy is going on to clear which level is considered an aim for Iran,"

he added. A source familiar with Gulf thinking said if no compromise with Iran were found before the

meeting in Algeria, there would be time to secure one ahead of OPEC's regular gathering in November

in Vienna.

Gold demand in Asia remained subdued this week as higher prices kept buyers at bay, but upcoming

festivals following a good monsoon in India would likely stimulate appetite for the yellow metal. The

safe-haven bullion has risen nearly 1 percent this week after weak U.S. jobs data last week lowered

expectations of an imminent September rate hike by the Federal Reserve. "In previous years, physical

demand was driven by Asian demand, this does not appear to be the case this year. Key will be

whether Indian and Chinese retail demand returns," analysts at ScotiaMocatta said. "In India, demand

for physical gold and jewellery in the months ahead are expected to benefit from a good monsoon."

Two-thirds of demand in India, the world's second-biggest gold consumer, comes from its rural areas

and villages, where jewellery is a traditional form of investment. Discounts over official domestic

prices in India doubled this week to $ 32 an ounce as compared to last week on the back of sluggish

Page 10: Commodity Research Report 12 September  2016 Ways2Capital

retail buying. "Last week demand was good, but the recent price rise again moderated demand," said

Harshad Ajmera, proprietor of JJ Gold House, a wholesaler in the eastern Indian city of Kolkata. Gold

prices MAUc1 in India have risen 1.5 percent so far this month and were trading around 31,200 rupees

per 10 grams on Friday. "Retail buyers are not comfortable in paying above 31,000 rupees. They are

waiting for a price correction," he said. Demand for gold is expected to strengthen in the final quarter

as India gears up for festivals such as Diwali and Dussehra, when buying the metal is considered

auspicious. Premiums in top consumer China varied between $ 1 and $ 1.50 an ounce to the spot

benchmark XAU= , down from $3-4 last week. "In China, concerns about the weakening yuan may

well prompt a pick-up in buying of gold as a hedge against a depreciating currency," ScotiaMocatta

analysts said in a note.

NCDEX - WEEKLY MARKET REVIEW

Faced with a sharp decline in soybean meal and other value-added products’ exports over the past few

years, India’s ministry of commerce and industry has decided to send a six-member delegation to

major importing countries to understand importers’ problems. The committee, headed by Davish Jain,

chairman of the Soybean Processors Association of India, showed soybean meal exports dropped 66

per cent in August to 10,615 tonnes, compared to 31,157 tonnes a year ago. During the April-August

2016 period, India’s soybean meal exports recorded a 62 per cent decline to 63,522 tonnes from

1,68,054 tonnes in the same period last year. “We are not competitive in the world market because of

higher raw material or soybean prices in India and lower realization from exports of meal. Our

soybean prices are determined by domestic farmers, while refined soya oil and soymeal prices are set

by crushers in Brazil due to cheap import of RSO,” said D N Pathak, executive director, Soyabean

Processors Association of India. Meanwhile, a letter sent by the commerce ministry to embassies in

Japan, Vietnam, the Philippines and Thailand seeks extension of full cooperation to the delegation,

which would visit these countries between September 18 and 30 to explore the market and meet

prospective buyers. Soybean crushing has been lower due to a sharp decline in output. Data compiled

by the SOPA estimate India’s soybean output at 7.54 million tonnes in crop year 2015-16 compared to

10.37 million tonnes in 2014-15, thus witnessing a decline of 27 per cent. Soybean output, thus, hit the

lowest in 11 years in 2015-16 due to drought in major growing states including Maharashtra and

Gujarat. Govt plans to raise soymeal exports India would need to increase yield 1.5 times to ramp up

soybean output and reduce import of RSO, said Pathak. India currently imports RSO at 12.5 per cent,

which the industry urged the government to raise to at least 25 per cent to help raise oil prices and

make crushing from local sources viable. Industry sources believe India’s export of soybean meal has

declined to ‘nil’ as the value of India’s exported goods is costlier by $ 100-150 a tonne in importing

countries such as Vietnam, Japan etc compared to sourcing the same from Brazil and Argentina - the

world’s two large soybean producers. “India has been a major exporter of soybean meal to the Far East

and SEA southeast Asia. However, during the past couple of years, our exports have fallen drastically

due to disparity in prices. This year, the crop looks very good and there is every possibility that we can

Page 11: Commodity Research Report 12 September  2016 Ways2Capital

re-enter these markets with competitive prices and the added advantage of being totally non-

genetically modified,” said the ministry’s letter.

➢ India may import the most wheat in a decade as output declines in the world's second-biggest

producer. Imports may total 5 million metric tonnes in 2016-17, the most since 2006-07, according to

the median estimate of seven traders surveyed by Bloomberg. Production is set to decline 1.8 per cent

to 85 million metric tonnes in the year through June from a year earlier, according to the median

estimate of nine traders and flour millers That's the lowest since 2009-10 and compares with the

government's estimate of 94.8 million tonnes. "One of the most critical issues is what's the production

number going to look like," Abdolreza Abbassian, senior economist at the United Nations' Food &

Agriculture Organization in Rome, said. "There will be higher imports than a year earlier, but nothing

too big because of the large stocks." Even as dry weather curbs output for a second year, stockpiles at

the start of May were 14 per cent bigger than the government's July 1 target, Food Corp of India data

show. While India decided last week to extend its 25 per cent import duty on wheat, some southern

flour mills are already sourcing grain from overseas. Demand for wheat is robust and steadily

increasing, according to BK Anand, head of grain and oilseeds business, Cargill India .

➢ Prices of cooking oils produced in India such as mustard oil, groundnut oil and cottonseed oil have

gone up 5-6% in the past fortnight amid supply constraints. Consumers can heave a sigh of relief,

though, since palm oil has become 7.5% cheaper during this period due to increase in production in

Malaysia and Indonesia."Production of mustard, groundnut and cottonseed suffered in both kharif and

rabi seasons due to erratic weather conditions," said Sandeep Bajoria, CEO of oil consultancy firm

Sunvin Group. "Moreover since monsoon has been delayed by a week this year, the market sentiment

has firmed, which is reflected in prices," The arrival of the south-west monsoon has kick-started

seasonal farming activity, with farmers taking up sowing of key kharif crops such as rice, pulses,

oilseeds and cotton in several states. According to the preliminary data put out by the agriculture

ministry, sowing of kharif crops was complete on about 71.24 lakh hectares on June 10, about 7%

lower than last year's acreage of 76.65 lakh hectares

➢ Sugar prices drifted lower by Rs 40 per quintal at the wholesale market in the national capital today

following ample stocks on increased supplies from millers amid subdued demand from stockists as

well as bulk consumers.Besides, weakening trend in futures markets too weighed on sweetener prices.

Marketmen said the fall in sugar prices was mostly attributed to supply pressure against slackened

demand from stockists and bulk consumers such as soft-drink and ice-cream. Sugar ready M-30 and S-

30 prices were down by Rs 20 each to end at Rs 3,620-3,700 and Rs 3,610-3,690 per quintal.

Similarly, mill delivery M-30 and S-30 traded lower by Rs 20 each to Rs 3,380-3,450 and Rs 3,370-

3,440 per quintal. In the millgate section, sugar Sakoti, Asmoli and Dorala fell by Rs 40 each to Rs

3,380, Rs 3,400 and Rs 3,390 per quintal.

Page 12: Commodity Research Report 12 September  2016 Ways2Capital

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Page 13: Commodity Research Report 12 September  2016 Ways2Capital

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ownership of one percent or more in the securities of the subject company,

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the time of publication of the research report or at the time of public appearance;

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reporting to analysts from owning securities of any company in the analyst's area of coverage.

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subject company.