E

MCX DAILY LEVELS ✍

DAILY EXPIRY R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4

ALUMINIU

M

30-NOV-2016 122 121 120 120 119 119 118 117 116

COPPER 30-NOV-2016 420 414 408 405 402 399 396 390 384

CRUDE OIL 19-DEC-2016 3507 3410 3313 3256 3216 3159 3119 3022 2925

GOLD 05-DEC-2016 29512 29193 28874 28736 28555 28417 28236 27917 27598

LEAD 30-NOV-2016 206 191 176 170 161 155 146 131 116

NATURAL

GAS

27-DEC-2015 231 224 217 214 210 207 203 196 189

NICKEL 30-NOV-2016 865 841 817 808 793 784 769 745 721

SILVER 05-DEC-2016 42609 41848 41087 40793 40326 40032 39565 38804 38043

ZINC 30-NOV-2016 229 217 205 201 193 189 181 169 157

MCX WEEKLY LEVELS ✍

WEEKLY EXPIRY R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4

ALUMINIUM 30-NOV-2016 140 133 126 123 119 116 112 105 98

COPPER 30-NOV-2016 502 466 430 417 394 381 358 322 286

CRUDE OIL 19-DEC-2016 3831 3634 3437 3317 3240 3120 3043 2846 2649

GOLD 05-DEC-2016 31285 30434 29583 29091 28732 28240 27881 27030 26179

LEAD 30-NOV-2016 219 199 179 172 159 152 139 119 99

NATURAL

GAS

27-DEC-2015 263 244 225 218 206 199 187 168 149

NICKEL 30-NOV-2016 949 894 839 819 784 764 729 674 619

SILVER 05-DEC-2016 44183 42950 41717 41107 40484 39847 39251 38018 36785

ZINC 30-NOV-2016 261 237 213 205 189 181 165 141 117

Monday, 28 November 2016

WEEKLY MCX CALL

SELL ALUMINIUM DEC BELOW 120.50 TGT 118.50 SL 122.30

SELL NATURAL GAS DEC BELOW 2019 TGT 214 SL 223.10

PREVIOUS WEEK CALL

SELL ALUMINIUM 115.60 TGT 113.60 SL 117.20 - NOT EXECUTED

SELL CRUDEOIL DEC BELOW 3160 TGT 3080 SL 3220 - NOT EXECUTED

FOREX DAILY LEVELS ✍

DAILY EXPIRY R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4

USDINR 28-DEC-

2016

69.30 69.20 69.10 69 68.90 68.80 68.70 68.60 68.50

EURINR 28-DEC-

2016

74.20 74 73.80 73.60 73.40 73.20 73 72.80 72.60

GBPINR 28-DEC-

2016

87.20 86.90 86.60 86.30 86 85.70 85.40 85.10 84.80

JPYINR 28-DEC-

2016

86.90 86.70 86.50 86.30 86.10 85.90 85.70 85.50 85.30

FOREX WEEKLY LEVELS✍

DAILY EXPIRY R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4

USDINR 28-DEC-

2016

69.60 69.40 69.20 69 68.80 68.60 68.40 68.20 68

EURINR 28-DEC-

2016

74.40 74.10 73.90 73.60 73.30 73 72.70 72.40 72.10

GBPINR 28-DEC-

2016

87.80 87.30 86.80 86.30 85.80 85.30 84.80 84.30 83.80

JPYINR 28-DEC-

2016

87.20 86.90 86.60 86.30 86 85.70 85.40 85.10 84.80

WEEKLY FOREX CALL

BUY JPYINR DEC ABOVE 61.80 TGT 62.85 SL 60.95

SELL GBPINR DEC BELOW 86 TGT 84.90 SL 87.05

PREVIOUS WEEK CALL

SELL USDINR NOV BELOW 68.10 TGT 67.30 SL 68.70 - NOT EXECUTED

SELL GBPINR NOV BELOW 84.10 TGT 83.10 SL 85.05 - NOT EXECUTED

NCDEX DAILY LEVELS✍

DAILY EXPIRY

DATE

R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4

SYOREFIDR 20-DEC-

2016

726 720 714 712 708 706 702 696 690

SYBEANIDR 20-DEC-

2016

3190 3161 3132 3117 3103 3088 3074 3045 3016

RMSEED 20-DEC-

2016

4792 4747 4702 4673 4657 4628 4612 4567 4522

JEERAUNJH

A

20-DEC-

2016

20090 19595 19100 18935 18605 18440 18110 17615 17120

GUARSEED10 20-DEC-

2016

3507 3450 3393 3360 3336 3303 3279 3222 3165

TMC 20-DEC-

2016

7829 7669 7509 7427 7349 7267 7189 7029 6869

NCDEX WEEKLY LEVELS✍

WEEKLY EXPIRY

DATE

R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4

SYOREFIDR 20-DEC-

2016

789 760 731 720 702 691 673 644 615

SYBEANIDR 20-DEC-

2016

3421 3313 3205 3154 3097 3046 2989 2881 2773

RMSEED 20-DEC-

2016

506

1

4930 4799 4722 4668 4591 4537 4406 4275

JEERAUNJH

A

20-DEC-

2016

22530 21120 19710 19240 18300 17830 16890 15480 14070

GUARSEED10 20-DEC-

2016

3853 3666 3479 3404 3292 3217 3105 2918 2731

TMC 20-DEC-

2016

8447 8055 7663 7505 7271 7113 6879 6487 6095

WEEKLY NCDEX CALL

SELL GUARSEED JAN BELOW 3310 TGT 3200 SL 3402

SELL JEERA JAN BELOW 18450 TGT 18000 SL 18905

PREIOUS WEEEK CALL

SELL GUARSEED JAN BELOW 3294 TGT 3203 SL 3353 - SL

BUY JEERA JAN ABOVE 17500 TGT 17900 SL 17100 - TGT

MCX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS

GLOBAL UPDATE✍

Gold prices closed at the lowest level in nine months on Friday as expectations for higher U.S. interest

rates continued to cloud the demand outlook for the precious metal.

Gold for December delivery settled down 0.53% at $1,183.00 on the Comex division of the New York

Mercantile Exchange, the lowest close since February 5.

Safe haven demand for gold has been hit since the U.S. presidential election amid expectations that

increased fiscal spending and tax cuts under the Trump administration will spur economic growth and

inflation. Faster growth would spark inflation, which in turn would prompt the Federal Reserve to

tighten monetary policy a faster rate than had previously been expected. The precious metal has also

been weighed down by bets that a rate hike by the Fed in December is a near certainty. According to

Investing.com's Fed Rate Monitor Tool, 95.4% of traders expect the Fed to raise interest rates at its

policy meeting next month. Gold is sensitive to moves in U.S. rates, which lift the opportunity cost of

holding non-yielding assets such as bullion, while boosting the dollar in which it is priced. Elsewhere

in metals trading, silver settled at $16.47, paring the week’s losses to 0.48%. Also on the Comex,

copper for December delivery settled at $2.46 a pound.

Gold prices eased on Thursday after falling to their lowest levels since February as the dollar paused

after surging to fresh 14-year peaks. Gold for December delivery was trading at $1,187.55 a troy

ounce by 0946 GMT, after earlier falling as low as $1,179.75, a level not seen since February 8. The

U.S. dollar index, which measures the greenback’s strength against a trade-weighted basket of six

major currencies, was last at 101.67, not far from highs of 102.11, the strongest level since early April

2003. The dollar rallied after upbeat U.S. data and Wednesday’s Federal Reserve minutes cemented

expectations for a rate hike next month. The minutes from the Fed’s November meeting said an

interest-rate increase was possible “relatively soon” if data indicated that the economy is improving.

Some Fed officials explicitly called for a rate hike in December, the minutes showed. Separately, data

showed that U.S. durable goods orders rose at the fastest rate in a year in October and another report

showed that a gauge of U.S. consumer confidence rose strongly in November. According to

Investing.com's Fed Rate Monitor Tool, odds for a rate hike at the Fed's December 13-14 meeting are

now at 100%. Gold is priced in dollars and becomes more expensive to holders of other currencies

when the dollar strengthens. Prices of the yellow metal had already come under pressure this month

amid the view that increased U.S. fiscal spending under a Trump administration will spur economic

growth and inflation, which would ultimately lead to an era of higher interest rates. Gold is sensitive

to moves in U.S. rates, which lift the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding assets such as bullion,

while boosting the dollar in which it is priced. Trade was expected remain quiet on Thursday; with

U.S. markets closed for the Thanksgiving Day holiday. Elsewhere in metals trading, silver futures for

December delivery were at $16.34 a troy ounce, while copper futures traded at $2.65 a pound. Copper

prices have risen around 20% so far this month on expectations of rising demand from China and an

increase in infrastructure spending in the U.S. when Donald Trump becomes president. China and the

U.S. are the top two consumers of the industrial metal.

Holdings of SPDR Gold Trust GLD , the world's largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, fell 1.47

percent to 891.57 tonnes on Wednesday from Tuesday. Holdings have declined over 5 percent so far

this month. Gold prices have dropped nearly 12 percent from a high of $1,337.40 per ounce, hit on

Nov. 9, when Donald Trump was announced U.S. president-elect. "Since no one particularly

anticipated the move post the Trump win, the position cutting on the long-side has been swift on the

downside," said Amit Kumar Gupta, research head at Adroit Financial Services, adding that the

market has piled into the U.S dollar and equities.

"Technically, $1,172 will act as support, below which the down move could be aggressive." Spot

silver XAG= fell 0.6 percent to $16.26 an ounce. Platinum XPT= dropped over 1.3 percent to

$918.40, while palladium XPD= edged up 0.2 percent to $734.40.

Gold edged lower on Tuesday after U.S. equities hit all-time highs on market expectations for higher

growth and more spending from a Donald Trump presidency.

Trump's victory in the Nov. 8 U.S. election initially saw a flight to safe-haven assets such as gold but

the trend quickly reversed as the dollar .DXY and bond yields surged on expectations of higher U.S.

spending and interest rates.Spot gold XAU= was down 0.14 percent at $1,211.97 an ounce by 2:18

p.m. EST (1918 GMT). The previous day, bullion advanced 0.4 percent to snap three sessions of

losses. U.S. gold futures GCcv1 settled up 0.1 percent at $1,211.20 per ounce.

Safe haven assets such as gold and the Japanese yen JPY= are usually the casualties of a flight to risk

where the dollar and stocks perform well. "We are still in the Donald Trump honeymoon period which

has taken the equity market quite a bit higher. The market is looking for global growth to come to the

rescue," said Saxo Bank head of commodity strategy Ole Hansen.

ENERGY✍

Oil prices fell sharply on Friday amid uncertainty over whether the Organization of the Petroleum

Exporting Countries can reach an agreement to cut production and prop up markets. U.S. crude oil

settled down $1.97 or 4.11% at $49.55 a barrel from its previous close on the New York Mercantile

Exchange. It was the largest one day decline since September 23. U.S crude still ended the week up

0.81% after trading in a range between $45.77 and $49.20 a barrel. Global benchmark Brent futures

were at $48.24 a barrel, down $1.76 cents or 3.59%. Trading activity remained thin because of the

Thanksgiving holiday in the U.S. Doubts over whether major global exporters will be able to reach an

agreement next week to rein in output also kept investors on the sidelines. OPEC is to hold a meeting

in Vienna on Wednesday aimed at finalizing the details of a proposed output cut, which it is hoped will

reduce a global supply glut that has pressured oil prices lower for more than two years. The producer

cartel is attempting to get its 14 member states, along with non-OPEC member Russia, to implement

coordinated production cuts. Reaching an agreement on a deal to cut output has proved problematic,

with some producers, most notably Iran, reluctant to curb production. Most analysts believe that some

form of consensus will be reached, but doubts remain over whether it will be enough to support the

market. "An agreement to a large production cut could send oil prices closer to $60 per barrel before

year's end, while failure to reach an agreement could cause oil prices to fall back to the low $40 per

barrel," In the week ahead, markets will be paying close attention to developments surrounding

Wednesday’s OPEC meeting. Markets will also be watching U.S. stockpile data on Tuesday and

Wednesday for fresh supply-and-demand signals. Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has

compiled a list of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Tuesday, November 29 The American Petroleum Institute, an industry group, is to publish its

weekly report on U.S. oil supplies.

Oil prices rose on Wednesday, after the U.S. Energy Information Administration reported a

larger-than-expected U.S. oil inventory drawdown last week. U.S. crude oil was up 25 cents or

0.71% at $48.3 a barrel at 10.35 ET. Global benchmark Brent futures were at $49.34 a barrel, up

25 cents or 0.53%. Crude oil inventories fell by 1.25 million barrels last week, the EIA said. That

was compared to forecasts for a stockpile build of 0.67 million barrels after a build of 5.27

million barrels in the previous week. The report also showed that gasoline inventories rose

by2.31 million barrels, compared to expectations for an increase of 0.64 million barrels, while

distillate stockpiles rose by 0.32 million barrels, compared to forecasts for a decrease of 0.35

million. Meanwhile, traders continued to ponder a planned output cut by major producers, aimed

at reducing a global supply glut and supporting prices. OPEC is to meet on November 30 to

decide on strategy for the first half of next year. The producer cartel is attempting to get its 14

member states along with non-OPEC member Russia to implement coordinated production cuts.

But doubts remain over the outlook for a deal, amid uncertainty over how any agreement would

be implemented. OPEC reached an agreement to limit production to a range of 32.5 million to

33.0 million barrels per day at a meeting in September. But production by OPEC members hit a

record high in October of 33.64 million barrels per day. Reaching an agreement on a deal to cut

output has proved problematic, with some producers, most notably Iran, reluctant to curb

production. Iran has ramped up production in a bid to regain market share after international

sanctions against it were lifted last January.

Oil prices were little changed on Thursday as uncertainty ahead of a planned PEC-led crude

production cut and thin liquidity due to the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday kept traders from making

big new bets on markets. International Brent crude oil futures LCOc1 were trading at $48.90 at

0209 GMT, down 5 cents from their last close. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures CLc1

were at $47.94 per barrel, down 2 cents from their last settlement. Traders said market activity

was low due to the U.S. holiday, and there was a reluctance to take on big price directional bets

due to uncertainty about a planned oil production cut, led by the Organization of the Petroleum

Exporting Countries. OPEC is due to meet on Nov. 30 to coordinate a cut, potentially together

with non-OPEC member Russia, but there is also disagreement within the producer cartel as to

which member states should cut and by how much. Thanksgiving Holiday today has thinned

traders interest ... but the OPEC result next Wednesday is the only game in town for energy

traders," said Jeffrey Halley, senior market analyst at OANDA brokerages in Singapore. Most

analysts believe that some form of a production cut will be agreed, though it is uncertain whether

this will be enough to prop up a market that has been dogged by a fuel supply overhang for over

two years. Beyond OPEC, traders said the strong U.S.-dollar, which is at levels last seen in 2003

against a basket of other leading currencies .DXY , was influencing oil prices. A strong dollar, in

which oil is traded, makes fuel purchases more expensive for countries using other currencies at

home, potentially crimping demand.

Oil prices were little changed on Thursday as uncertainty ahead of a planned OPEC-led crude

production cut and thin liquidity during the U.S. Thanksgiving holiday kept traders from making

big new bets. Brent crude futures LCOc1 were trading at $49.01 at 0711 GMT, up 6 cents from

their last close. U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude CLc1 was at $48.07 per barrel, up 11 cents

from their last settlement. Traders said market activity was low due to the U.S. holiday, and there

was a reluctance to take on big price directional bets due to uncertainty about a planned oil

production cut, led by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries. OPEC is due to

meet on Nov. 30 to coordinate a cut, potentially together with non-OPEC member Russia, but

there is also disagreement within the producer cartel as to which member states should cut and

by how much. analysts believe some form of production cut will be agreed, but it is uncertain

whether it will be enough to prop up a market that has been dogged by a fuel supply overhang

for over two years, resulting in a record three years of falling investments into the sector,

according to the International Energy Agency. expect OPEC will reach an agreement at next

week's biannual meeting in Vienna... If OPEC does successfully reach an agreement, prices are

likely to test the year high in Brent of $53 per barrel," ANZ bank said in a note to clients on

Thursday. But it added that "investor positioning data and price action suggest the market

remains unconvinced," and that net long positions, which would profit from rising prices, were

still at lows not seen since oil hit $27 per barrel earlier this year. IEA Director Fatih Birol told

Reuters in Tokyo on Thursday that even if production is cut, prices could soon come back under

downward pressure again as the OPEC-led cut would enable U.S. shale oil drillers to massively

increase their own output. OPEC, traders said the strong U.S.-dollar, which is at levels last seen

in 2003 against a basket of other leading currencies .DXY , was influencing oil prices. A strong

dollar, in which oil is traded, makes fuel purchases more expensive for countries using other

currencies at home, potentially crimping demand. There were also signs of ongoing oversupply,

with China's gasoline exports soaring over 100 percent compared with this time last year, to

870,000 tonnes, as its refiners churn out more petrol than even China's huge consumer base can

handle.

BASE METAL✍

Copper prices have risen around 22% so far this month on hopes that infrastructure plans in top

consumers China and the U.S. will bolster demand for the industrial metal. In the week ahead,

markets will be paying close attention to Friday’s U.S. nonfarm payrolls report for November as

well as data on U.S. economic growth and manufacturing for fresh indications on the likelihood

of a December rate hike. Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list of these

and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Last week, LME Copper prices traded higher by 8.4 percent to close at $5879/tonne as

expectations of increased infrastructure spending in the US after commitment by President elect

Trump in his victory speech widely expected to spur growth and inflation continued to boost

demand outlook. Besides, persistently falling LME stocks, which are down by 26 percent in

November itself, is also supportive. This month, Copper prices have been a beneficiary of robust

manufacturing activity in the major consumer nations, namely the US, China and EU. Apart from

that, persistent weakening in the Yuan is adding to the strength in the prices. MCX copper prices.

Open interest in non-farm commodities on the Multi Commodity Exchange has declined sharply

in the last three weeks following uncertainty over global economic indicators. Traders have

started squaring off their positions and churning their portfolios for better profit. This is

happening despite the rising prices of base metals and falling bullion prices. The open interest for

all gold contracts declined to 8,160 lots on Wednesday from 9,267 lots on November 8. Open

interest for all silver contracts fell to 15,389 lots on Wednesday from 16,163 lots on November 8.

“More than global factors, demonetisation affected trading sentiment. Those with cash balances

are busy adjusting them and those who do not have cash are abstaining from fresh positions.

Copper stood out among the hottest commodities in the past one month, as prices of the base

metal surged nearly 20 per cent on hopes of improving demand from top consumer China and a

steady decline in stocks at warehouses. The rally was fuelled by optimism over robust demand

from the US on expectation of increased infrastructure spending under president-elect Donald

Trump. Trump has pledged to spend $1 trillion on infrastructure over the next 10 years, which

has fuelled demand expectation. On the Multi Commodity Exchange, prices of the commodity

jumped from Rs 311 a kg on October 17 to Rs 368.70 a kg. However, market experts believe the

rally is now overdone and there could be some correction by mid-December. In the runup to the

US presidential election, copper prices rose in anticipation of Hillary Clinton’s victory. In fact,

copper prices surpassed the crucial $5000 per tonne psychological mark on the London Metal

Exchange on November 7, a day prior to the election. But the most surprising thing was that the

metal moved 7 per cent higher in the international markets in a matter of just three days on

November 8-10 despite the surprise victory for Donald Trump in the US presidential election.

However, on MCX, copper prices surged 10 per cent to Rs 373.60 on November 11 from Rs

339.75 on November 8.

Copper prices fell by 1.11 per cent to Rs 365.95 per kg in futures trade today as participants

indulged in reducing positions, tracking a weak trend in base metals overseas. Besides, subdued

demand from consuming industries in the spot market weighed on prices. At the Multi

Commodity Exchange, copper for delivery in current month contracts declined by Rs 4.10, or

1.11 per cent, to Rs 365.95 per kg in a business turnover of 1,050 lots. On similar lines, the metal

for delivery in far-month February next month traded lower by Rs 3.80, or 1.01 per cent, to Rs

371.65 per kg in 21 lots. Analysts said offloading of positions by traders on the back of a weak

trend as most industrial metals fell globally as speculators in China took their foot off the pedal

and the stronger dollar deterred investors from buying commodities, mainly influenced copper

prices at futures trade.

NCDEX - WEEKLY MARKET REVIEW

✍ SOYABEAN

Soybean futures closed higher on Thursday on anticipation of firm international markets on

biofuel usage in US and domestically good

demand of soybean for crushing. It is expectation that the peak arrivals will be observed during

the month of December. The most-active Dec’16 delivery contract closed 1.96% down to settle

at Rs. 3,123 per quintal. Recently, SOPA has raised the estimate for 2016-17 (Jul-Jun) soybean

output in the country to 115 lt from 109 lt estimated earlier. The spot prices have dropped below

the MSP in some places in States of MP, Maha and Gujarat.

CBOT soybean was closed higher on Friday, supported by strongerthan-expected weekly export

sales data. The USDA reported export

sales of U.S. soybeans in the latest week at nearly 1.9 million tonnes, above a range of trade

expectations for 1.2 million to 1.5 million

tonnes. Moreover, record EPA biofuel mandate EPA raised quotas of renewable fuel mixed into

U.S. gasoline and diesel to a record 19.28 billion gallons, including 15 billion gallons of ethanol.

REFINED SOYA OIL✍

Refined soy oil futures continue its uptrend last week on tracking firm international prices on

anticipation of squeezing supplies from the US due to record requirement biofuel use for next

year. Moreover, anticipation of further increase in tariff value by government of India for 1st half

of December too supports prices at higher levels. The most active Ref Soy oil Dec’16 expiry

contract closed 3.75% higher last week to settle at Rs. 710.3/10kg. The tariff value of crude

soyoil were raised by $13 per tn to $866 which was the fourth increase in two month by the

government. Recently, NCDEX has withdrawn additional margin of 2.5% on both long and

short side on all running contracts of soy oil. As per SEA data, India October crude soyoil import

277,878 tonnes, lower by 31 % compared to 405,186 tonnes year ago while, India’s 2015/16

crude soyoil import 4.23 mt vs 2.99 mt – an increase of 41% y/y for the current oil year (Nov-

Oct).

SUGAR✍

Sugar Futures fall last week due to anticipation of good physical supplies form the sugar mills as

the crushing season is in full swing in main sugarcane growing states. Moreover, there is

subdued demand in the physical market as stockists are not willing to buy due to cash crunch

situation. The most-active December sugar contract closed 2.50% down last week to settle at

3,428 per quintal.

As per ISMA, Sugar mills have produced 15,000 tonnes more till November 15 this year at 7.87

lakh tonne against 7.72 lakh tonne in the same period last year. Sugar production has increased

marginally on account of early crushing in states like Uttar Pradesh and Karnataka As per ISMA’s

first media release, the carryover stock as on 1st October is pegged at 77 lt and production is

estimated at 234 lt in 2016-17 SS. Therefore, total sugar available in the country during 2016-17

SS would be around 311 lt, against the estimated consumption of 255 lt. During 2016-17 SS,

Maharashtra mills delayed their starting so as to get the cane matured further to get better sugar

recovery from standing cane. These mills are now expected to start crushing from 5th November,

2016. Similarly, Gujarat mills are expected to start this week.

ICE raw sugar futures rose on Friday, boosted by a pick-up in physical demand after recent

declines helped to tighten nearby supplies.

Moreover, the weak Brazilian real often pressures raw sugar prices as it encourages producer and

fund selling. Moreover, speculators reduced their record bullish in raw sugar contracts in the

week to Nov. 15, U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission data showed on Friday. As per,

the International Sugar Organization, world sugar production and demand will come back into

balance in 2017-18, ending the run of deficits which has left inventories at a "critically low

level" in the current season. Industry group Unica said sugar production was 2.05 mt, near the

top of a range of forecasts of around 1.9 million to 2.08 million.

RAPE/ MUSTERED SEED✍

Mustard seed futures closed higher last week due to boost in winter demand and effect on

increase in MSP. However, good sowing

progress limit the uptrend. The Dec’16 contract ended 0.43% higher last week to settle at Rs.

4,645/quintal. As per agriculture ministry data, all-India acreage of mustard in the ongoing rabi

season was nearly 58.1 lh as on Nov 24 up 17.8% from a year ago. The sowing operations were

not affected much, as sowing is nearing an end, and farmers had already bought the seeds. Till

Nov 18, Rajasthan, planted 24.6 lakh ha, up 24% from a year ago similarly acreage increase in

Uttar Pradesh, where mustard is sown in

9.82 lh, up 15.4% from a year ago. In MP, the oilseed was sown over 5.21 lh, up 23.2% sown a

year ago. Govt increases mustard MSP by 350 rupees/100 kg to 3,700 rupees for FY16-17 which

includes bonus of Rs.100 / quintals. As per the latest USDA monthly report, global rapeseed

production for 2016/17 is forecast higher at 67.81 mt in Nov. compared to 67.6 mt in October and

down 3.4% from 2015/16.

JEERA✍

Jeera futures closed higher last week due to expectation of tight supplies and fresh export

enquiries as sowing season commenced in

Gujarat and Rajasthan. NCDEX Dec’16 Jeera closed 8.37% higher last week to close at Rs

18,770 per quintal. Jeera sowing in Gujarat and Rajasthan have started. In Gujarat, Jeera sowing

completed in around 99,100 hectares as compared to last year acreage of 17,400 hectares, as on

21st Nov. The stock position in NCDEX warehouse is at lower level compared to last year

stocks. As on

21 November 2016, new Jeera stock position at NCDEX approved warehouses in Jodhpur and

Unjha is 743 MT. Last year stocks were

about 6,426 tonnes. According Department of commerce data, the exports of Jeera in the first

five months (Apr-Aug) of 2016-17 is recorded at 60,907 tonnes, higher by 62% compared to

same period last year. The exports of jeera during August 2016 increase 65% m/m to 9,003

tonnes while there is also increase exports y/y by 65.7%.

TURMERIC ✍

Turmeric futures closed higher last week due to good demand and dwindling supplies in the

physical market. Moreover, surge in spot

market too support the prices at futures market just a month before the harvest season. Turmeric

Dec’16 delivery contract on NCDEX

closed 3.79% higher last week to settle at Rs 7,346 per quintal. Currently the supplies are for

medium and poor quality during the rest

of the season till new crop arrived which may keep the prices sideways to higher. The reports of

good production from new season crops may pressurize prices as the harvesting begins in the

next month. On the export front, country exported about 51,147 tonnes of

turmeric during April-August period up by 32% compared last year, as per government data.

Expectations of increasing production in coming harvesting season and lowering export demand

in recent months are putting pressure on turmeric prices at higher levels. Turmeric acreage in

Telangana and Andhra Pradesh was higher this year as compared last year.

KAPAS ✍

Cotton complex traded lower during the last week due to increase in demand and ease in arrivals

of seed cotton in the physical

market. Though there is is good demand from ginners and textile mills the prices have eased due

to heavy arrivals. Last week, NCDEX Kapas for Apr’17 closed 2.99% down while MCX Nov’16

cotton closed 0.83% down. Industry is estimating 355 lakh bales (170 kg each) for the season

2016- 17 (Oct-Sep), as against the government’s first estimate of 321.2 lakh bales. As per CAB,

India's cotton output is seen at 351 lakh bales (1 bale = 170 kg), up 4% from 338 lakh bales a

year ago due to good monsoon and minimum pest infestation. Cotton area is down by 11.6% at

105.6 lh against 116 lh last year.

For the current season, cotton arrivals in the country are pegged at 32.5 lakh bales as on 12

November, 2016. In October, Punjab, Haryana and Rajasthan together account for at 5.82 lb

while Gujarat and Maharashtra added 7.3 lb. Madhya Pradesh too seen about 1.82 lb arrivals. In

South India, about 3.36 lb arrivals have been recorded. According to USDA, production in India

is forecast at 26.5 million bales (5.77 mt), up marginally from 2015/16. A rebound in India’s yield

is expected to offset a 10-percent reduction in cotton area this season.

ICE Cotton futures slipped to their lowest for a week on Friday as British firm Cotton Outlook

on Friday raised its forecast for global

cotton production in the 2016/17 crop year as it cut projections for world consumption. Traders

expects that U.S. export sales for the week ending Nov. 17 are likely to be one of the lowest in

recent times. However, USDA showed net upland sales of 254,800 running bales for the week

Nov 11-17 were up 19% from the previous week and 52 percent from the prior four-week

average for the 2016/17 crop. As per ICAC, world ending stocks are forecast to decrease further

by 7% to 17.8 mt at the end of 2016/17 as China continues to reduce its stocks. Ending stocks in

China, where much of the excess stocks are held, decreased by 13% to 11.3 mt as the Chinese

government sold over two million tons from its official reserves from May through September

2016.

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