E

MCX DAILY LEVELS ✍

DAILY EXPIRY R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4

ALUMINIUM 30-DEC-2016 120 118 117 116 115 114 113 112 111

COPPER 28-FEB-2017 410 405 400 398 395 393 390 385 380

CRUDE OIL 19-DEC-2016 3713 3636 3559 3529 3482 3452 3405 3328 3251

GOLD 03-FEB-2017 29295 28985 28675 28551 28365 28241 28055 27745 27435

LEAD 30-DEC-2016 172 166 160 156 154 150 148 142 136

NATURAL GAS 27-DEC-2015 277 263 249 241 235 227 221 207 193

NICKEL 30-DEC-2016 864 834 804 792 774 762 744 714 684

SILVER 03-MAR-2017 42663 41830 40997 40662 40164 39829 39331 38498 37665

ZINC 30-DEC-2016 196 191 186 183 181 178 176 171 166

MCX WEEKLY LEVELS ✍

WEEKLY EXPIRY R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4

ALUMINIUM 30-DEC-2016 136 130 124 120 118 114 112 106 100

COPPER 28-FEB-2017 488 458 428 412 398 382 368 338 308

CRUDE OIL 19-DEC-2016 4725 4276 3827 3663 3378 3214 2929 2480 2031

GOLD 03-FEB-2017 31366 30375 29384 28905 28393 27914 27402 26411 25420

LEAD 30-DEC-2016 229 206 183 168 160 145 137 114 91

NATURAL GAS 27-DEC-2015 296 275 254 243 233 222 212 191 170

NICKEL 30-DEC-2016 996 924 952 816 780 744 708 636 564

SILVER 03-MAR-2017 45506 43807 42108 41217 40409 39518 38710 37011 35312

ZINC 30-DEC-2016 260 236 212 196 188 172 164 140 116

Monday, 05 December 2016

WEEKLY MCX CALL

BUY ZINC DEC ABOVE 187 TGT 190 SL 184

PREVIOUS WEEK CALL

SELL ALUMINIUM DEC BELOW 120.50 TGT 118.50 SL 122.30 – TGT

SELL NATURAL GAS DEC BELOW 2019 TGT 214 SL 223.10 - NOT EXECUTED

FOREX DAILY LEVELS ✍

DAILY EXPIRY R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4

USDINR 28-DEC-2016 69 68.80 68.60 68.40 68.20 68 67.80 67.60 67.40

EURINR 28-DEC-2016 73.10 72.85 72.65 72.40 72.15 71.90 71.65 71.40 71.25

GBPINR 28-DEC-2016 87.70 87.40 87.10 86.80 86.50 86.20 85.90 85.60 85.30

JPYINR 28-DEC-2016 61.30 61 60.70 60.40 60.10 59.80 59.50 59.20 58.90

FOREX WEEKLY LEVELS✍

DAILY EXPIRY R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4

USDINR 28-DEC-2016 69.30 69 68.70 68.40 68.10 67.80 67.50 67.20 66.90

EURINR 28-DEC-2016 73.60 73.20 72.80 72.40 72 71.60 71.20 70.80 70.40

GBPINR 28-DEC-2016 88.60 88 87.40 86.80 86.20 85.80 85.20 84.60 84

JPYINR 28-DEC-2016 62 61.40 60.90 60.40 60 59.50 59 58.50 58

WEEKLY FOREX CALL

BUY JPYINR DEC ABOVE 60.40 TGT 61.30 SL 59.80

SELL GBPINR DEC BELOW 86 TGT 85 SL 87

PREVIOUS WEEK CALL

BUY JPYINR DEC ABOVE 61.80 TGT 62.85 SL 60.95 NOT EXECUTED

SELL GBPINR DEC BELOW 86 TGT 84.90 SL 87.05 - MADE LOW OF 85.30

NCDEX DAILY LEVELS✍

DAILY EXPIRY

DATE

R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4

SYOREFIDR 20-JAN-2017 749 744 739 736 734 731 729 724 719

SYBEANIDR 20-JAN-2017 3285 3247 3209 3188 3171 3150 3133 3095 3057

RMSEED 20-JAN-2017 5097 5003 4909 4854 4815 4760 4721 4627 4533

JEERAUNJHA 20-JAN-2017 19086 18771 18456 18263 18141 17948 17826 17511 17196

GUARSEED10 20-JAN-2017 3706 3600 3494 3439 3388 3333 3282 3176 3070

TMC 20-APR-2017 7184 7094 7004 6948 6914 6858 6824 6734 6644

NCDEX WEEKLY LEVELS✍

WEEKLY EXPIRY

DATE

R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4

SYOREFIDR 20-JAN-2017 787 767 747 740 727 720 707 687 667

SYBEANIDR 20-JAN-2017 3435 3352 3269 3218 3186 3135 3103 3020 2937

RMSEED 20-JAN-2017 5560 5303 5046 4932 4789 4666 4532 4275 4018

JEERAUNJHA 20-JAN-2017 21086 20171 19256 18663 18341 17748 17426 16511 15596

GUARSEED10 20-JAN-2017 3746 3625 3504 3444 3383 3323 3262 3141 3020

TMC 20-APR-2017 7417 7257 7097 6994 6937 6834 6777 6617 6457

WEEKLY NCDEX CALL

BUY JEERA JAN ABOVE 18400 TGT 18800 SL 18040

BUY GUARSEED JAN ABOVE 3430 TGT 3540 SL 3390

PREIOUS WEEEK CALL

SELL GUARSEED JAN BELOW 3310 TGT 3200 SL 3402 - NOT EXECUTED

SELL JEERA JAN BELOW 18450 TGT 18000 SL 18905 - CLOSED AT 18460

MCX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS

GLOBAL UPDATE

BULLION✍

Gold edged higher on Friday, climbing for the first time in four sessions as it shrugged off data

showing rising U.S. job numbers, with analysts saying that an expected rise in interest rates had

already been priced in. U.S. employers boosted hiring in November, pushing down the

unemployment rate to a more than nine-year low of 4.6 percent and increasing the likelihood

that the Federal Reserve will raise interest rates this month. is highly sensitive to rising interest

rates, which make the non-yielding asset less attractive while boosting the dollar, in which it is

priced. "The market is still thinking a December hike is very likely, which has already factored

in, and that's why gold is not really moving today," said Natixis' precious metals analyst,

Bernard Dahdah. Spot gold XAU= was up 0.3 percent at $1,174.03 an ounce by 2:33 p.m. EST,

bouncing up from Thursday's lowest level since Feb. 5 at $1,160.38. It was on track to record a

fourth straight week of losses. U.S. gold futures GCcv1 settled up 0.7 percent at $ 1,177.80 per

ounce. Capital Economics commodities economist Simona Gambarini said that U.S. president-

elect Donald Trump is uppermost in investors' minds. "Most investors are now looking at 2017

to see what's going to happen with Trump, what policies he will implement and the inflationary

impact of those policies," Gambarini said. The dollar index .DXY , which measures the

greenback against a basket of major currencies, slipped by about 0.3 percent, helping to support

gold prices. "With a rate rise in a couple of weeks almost certain, the dollar will remain firm

and gold will remain pressured, although we could see a bit of book-squaring in the run-up,"

said Marex Spectron's head of precious metals, David Govett. Commerzbank said that it

expects the upward trend of the first half of the year to resume in 2017. headwind from U.S.

dollar appreciation and the rise of bond yields should abate and investment demand should pick

up again also given the numerous risk factors," Commerzbank said. Holdings of the world's

largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, SPDR Gold Trust GLD , fell 1.5 percent on

Thursday after dropping more than 6 percent last month. Silver XAG= rose 1 percent to $16.66

an ounce while platinum XPT= was up 1.8 percent at $927.80. Palladium XPD= shed 1.5

percent at $739, and was on track to close the week down for the first time in five weeks after

tumbling from Thursday's 1-1/2-year high.

Gold recovered from its lowest since early February on Friday as the dollar drifted lower ahead

of U.S. jobs data, but is still on track for a fourth consecutive weekly decline. Spot gold XAU=

was up 0.2 percent at $1,173.59 an ounce by 0612 GMT. The metal fell to its lowest since Feb.

5 at $1,160.38 in the previous session. For the week, gold was trading down 0.8 percent. U.S.

gold futures GCcv1 gained 0.5 percent at $1,175.30 per ounce. "These movements in gold can

be tied to the dollar," said Ronald Leung, chief dealer at Lee Cheong Gold Dealers in Hong

Kong. "There is a bit of buying in the physical side, but that has not been really aggressive."

The dollar index .DXY , which measures the greenback against a basket of major currencies,

fell about 0.3 percent on Friday to 100.770 as investors remained wary ahead of U.S. payrolls

data due later in the day. "Most market participants are awaiting the crucial non-farm payrolls

data due today. A positive outcome could mean the Federal Reserve can raise interest rates in

the next meet," said Hareesh V, Research Head at Geofin Comtrade Ltd. The dollar has scaled

back from near 14-year highs of 102.05 hit on Nov. 24 on the back of a surge in U.S. Treasury

yields triggered by expectations of higher fiscal impulse and faster pace of monetary tightening

under president-elect Donald Trump. Several Fed policymakers have since expressed

confidence in the U.S. economy and signalled a possible near-term interest rate hike. Gold is

highly sensitive to rising interest rates, as these lift the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding

bullion, while boosting the dollar. "People are rushing to the stock market rather than the gold

markets. That is evident in the liquidation we are seeing in the exchange traded funds ," Leung

of Lee Cheong Gold Dealers added. Holdings of the largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund,

SPDR Gold Trust GLD , fell 1.54 percent to 870.22 tonnes on Thursday. Holdings have fallen

over 6 percent last month. Spot gold XAU= may bounce moderately into a range of $1,184 to

$1,194 per ounce, according to Reuters technical analyst Wang Tao. XAG= was mostly

unchanged at $16.52 an ounce. Platinum XPT= slid 0.1 percent at $909.50 but was on track to

rise for the first time in 4 weeks. Palladium XPD= rose 0.3 percent at $752.65 an ounce after

scaling its highest level since June 2015 at $774.60 in the previous session. It was set to rise for

a fifth straight week.

Gold prices rose more than 1 percent on Monday, recovering from their lowest levels since

February as the dollar and long-dated U.S. Treasury bond yields retreated from recent highs.

Spot gold XAU= was up 0.8 percent at $1,192.64 an ounce by 2:44 p.m. ET, after climbing as

high as $1,197.54 earlier in the session. Prices remained within sight of Friday's 9-1/2-month

low of $1,171.21. U.S. gold futures GCcv1 settled up 1.05 percent at $1,190.80 per ounc. The

metal has fallen nearly 7 percent so far this month, as the dollar and bond yields benefited from

heightened expectations of enlarged fiscal spending by U.S. President-elect Donald Trump. As

gold pays no interest, the rise in returns from U.S. bonds and other markets is seen as negative

for the metal. "If oil prices collapse or stay low then inflation won't pick up as much and there

would be less of an incentive to raise U.S. rates rapidly and the dollar would not be as strong,

which would be supportive for gold," The dollar .DXY was down 0.2 percent against a basket

of six major currencies, while the yield on 10-year U.S. Treasuries US10YT=RR retreated from

last week's 16-month high. "The interest rate hike has been priced into gold but you could

expect further volatility leading up to the rate hike," said Maxwell Gold, director of investment

strategy at ETF Securities, noting that the U.S. Federal Reserve is widely expected to raise U.S.

interest rates at its mid-December meeting. Traders also said a directive from the People's Bank

of China to limit gold imports was creating concerns about supply in the top consumer of the

metal and kept premiums in Shanghai around $22. Gold premiums in China jumped to the

highest in nearly three years last week on supply worries. from South East Asia is also quite

good and buying at lower prices could have driven prices higher, said Cameron Alexander, an

analyst with Thomson Reuters GFMS metals consultancy. SPDR Gold Trust GLD , the world's

largest gold-backed exchange-traded fund, said its holdings fell 0.73 percent to 885.04 tonnes

on Friday. "As long as we continue to see this quite heavy selling in the ETFs market and

strength in the dollar, gold could come under further pressure,"

ENERGY ✍

Oil prices rose for a third day on Friday, settling above $51 a barrel after the Organization of

the Petroleum Exporting Countries reached an agreement to cut output for the first time in eight

years in order to reduce a global supply glut. U.S. crude oil settled up 63 cents or 1.23% at

$51.69 a barrel from its previous close on the New York Mercantile Exchange. U.S crude ended

the week with a gain of 14%, the largest weekly percentage gain since early 2011. Global

benchmark Brent futures were at $54.43 a barrel, up 49 cents or 0.91% on London’s ICE

Futures Exchange and rose nearly 15% for the week, the biggest weekly percentage gain since

early 2009. Oil prices surged after OPEC agreed on its first production cut since 2008, aimed at

reining in massive oversupply that has seen prices more than halve since mid-2014. The deal

will see output cut by 1.2 million bpd from January 2017. The agreement will be reassessed

after six months with an option to extend for another six months.

The 14-member cartel is responsible for a third of global oil production, or 33.6 million barrels

per day. The agreement also included coordinated action with non-OPEC members, who are

expected to decrease production by 600,000 barrels a day. Russia has said it will cut production

by 300,000 barrels a day. But analysts said that the cuts are likely to cause other producers,

especially U.S. shale drillers, to increase output. Analysts are also doubtful over how the

agreement will be enforced, as OPEC has no authority to make its members comply. In the

week ahead, markets will focus their attention on the implementation and impact of the OPEC

agreement. Traders will also be watching U.S. stockpile data on Tuesday and Wednesday for

fresh supply-and-demand signals. Ahead of the coming week, Investing.com has compiled a list

of these and other significant events likely to affect the markets.

Oil prices extended gains early on Friday as producer cartel OPEC and Russia agreed to rein in

a global oversupply in crude on Wednesday with analysts now focusing their attention on

implementation of the deal. "It looks achievable on the face of it, provided the parties to the

latest production cut deal stick to their pledges, which has historically been somewhat of a

sticking point," Still, traders said the market was optimistic about Wednesday's historic OPEC-

Russia deal to reduce global output and help bring the oil market back into balance."This is

positive news that will make a sustainable difference to the oil market over the coming

months," said Ric Spooner, chief market strategist at CMC Markets adding that it wouldn't be

surprising to see this momentum continue.

U.S. West Texas Intermediate crude futures CLc1 were at $51.10 per barrel by 0037 GMT, up 5

cents from their last settlement. Traders said price developments in crude futures over the

coming days would help reflect the market's optimism of the deal.

"WTI has arrived at the peaks from the middle of last year and again in October," Spooner said,

which will be a test for the market that may give some insight into how positive traders view

this week's agreement. The Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries agreed on

Wednesday its first oil output reduction since 2008 after de-facto leader Saudi Arabia accepted

"a big hit" and dropped a demand that arch-rival Iran also slash output. The deal also included

the group's first coordinated action with non-OPEC member Russia in 15 years.

Oil prices fell early on Tuesday on doubts that producer cartel OPEC will be able to hammer

out a meaningful output cut during a meeting on Wednesday to rein in a global supply overhang

and prop up prices. International Brent crude oil futures LCOc1 were trading at $48.10 per

barrel at 0102 GMT, down 14 cents, or 0.3 percent, from their last close. U.S. West Texas

Intermediate crude futures CLc1 were down 19 cents, or 0.4 percent, at $46.89 a barrel. The

Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries is meeting officially in Vienna on

Wednesday to discuss a planned production cut in an effort to curb overproduction that has

dogged markets and more than halved prices since 2014. With a high degree of uncertainty

going into the last 24 hours before the meeting, oil price volatility is expected to be high.

"We expect intra-day volatility to ratchet higher again into tomorrow, with price action being

entirely headline driven," said Jeffrey Halley, senior market analyst at OANDA brokerage in

Singapore. There remains disagreement among OPEC-members over which producers should

cut by how much, and a plan to bring non-OPEC oil giant Russia to participate has so far also

failed.

Saudi Arabia's problems run far deeper than trying to cobble together a deal with fellow OPEC

members to curb crude oil output in order to bolster prices. About two-thirds of Saudi Arabia's

oil exports head to Asia, and the kingdom's struggles in the region's two biggest importers,

China and India, are symptoms of its wider issues in crude markets. While Saudi Arabia has

been increasing the total volume of crude it ships to China and India, it has steadily been losing

market share, something that is likely of deep concern given that much of the current and future

growth of oil demand is dependent on these two countries. Saudi Arabia is likely going to have

re-think its long-standing practice of selling oil via fixed contracts and embrace a move to a far

larger proportion of spot cargoes and flexible pricing. In the first 10 months of the year, China

imported 42.72 million tonnes of oil from Saudi Arabia, equivalent to about 1.03 million

barrels per day (bpd). represented an increase of 0.67 percent from the same period in 2015, in

other words Saudi Arabia's exports to China are largely steady. The problem is that China's total

oil imports are up 13.6 percent in the first 10 months of 2016, and all of Saudi Arabia's

competitors have been cashing in. China's imports from Russia have gained 27 percent to 42.83

million tonnes, slightly more than those of Saudi Arabia and making Russia the top supplier.

China's imports from Iraq have gained 14.7 percent, those from Iran 15.7, from Angola 12.1

percent and Oman 8.1 percent. Saudi Arabia's share of China's oil imports was 13.7 percent in

the first 10 months of the year, down from 15.1 percent in 2015, while Russia's share has

gained to 13.7 percent from 12.6 percent. It's not much better for Saudi Arabia in India, Asia's

second-biggest oil importer.Saudi Arabia supplied 830,400 bpd to India in the first 10 months

of the year, up 6.8 percent from the same period in 2015, according to data compiled by

Thomson Reuters Supply Chain and Commodities Research. problem is that Iraq supplied

783,900 bpd in the first 10 months, up 24 percent, while Iran shipped 456,400 bpd, up a

massive 114.6 percent as the Islamic Republic returned to the market after the lifting of

Western sanctions against its nuclear programme.

In the first 10 months of the year, Saudi Arabia's share of Indian imports was 19.4 percent,

down from 19.7 percent in 2015. Iraq's share was 18.3 percent in the first 10 months, up from

16.1 percent in 2015, while Iran's was 10.6 percent, surging from 5.2 percent in 2015.

BASE METAL✍

LME Copper prices traded lower by 2 percent last week as Chinese exchanges took stern

measures to tame the excessive volatility in base metals. Also, uncertainty regarding OPEC

decision and Italy’s referendum hurt prices for better part of the week. Further, Chinalco has

reached a deal with the Peruvian government for a major expansion of Toromocho, one of

Peru’s biggest copper mines. Also, Peru’s National Institute of Statistics said last week that

national copper production in September grew 35.9% as compared to the same month of 2015.

However, sharp downside was restricted as the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting

Countries reached a deal on Wednesday to reduce their oil production by 1.2 million barrels per

day in order to raise global prices.Moreover, manufacturing data from the US and China

expanded in November, adding to positive demand outlook. MCX copper prices traded lower

by 1.7 percent to close at Rs.396.7 per kg on Friday.

Copper prices fell by 1.47 per cent to Rs 330.70 a kg in futures trade on Monday as participants

indulged in reducing their exposure ahead of monthly expiry amid muted demand at the

domestic spot markets. However, strength in the base metals pack at the London Metal

EXchange, capped the fall. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, copper for delivery in February

next year declined by Rs 5.95 or 1.47 per cent to Rs 399.90 per kg in a business turnover of 205

lots. On similar lines, the metal for delivery this month was trading lower by Rs 5.75 or 1.44

per cent to Rs 394.90 per kg in 702 lots. Analysts said offloading of positions by traders ahead

of November month expiry amid a weak trend at the domestic spot markets as some industrial

metals fell due to low demand, mainly influenced copper prices at futures trade.

Base metal prices on the London Metal Exchange continue to rally, helping Hindalco, Vedanta

and Hindustan Zinc to touch their all-time or 52-week highs.While zinc has been the best

performing base metal, with LME prices almost doubling from the lows seen at the start of the

year, other metals follow. Copper prices are at levels earlier seen 16 months earlier; aluminium

and lead have made smart gains.A rally last month was on hope that a Trump-led administration

would boost infrastructure spending in America, spurring demand. In contrast to sentiment at

the start of year, wherein concerns of a global recession led by the US and slowing China

demand had pulled down prices. With capacities getting curtailed and sentiment improving,

there was a rebound. Investors perceive zinc as the metal with the tightest supply situation,

given the multitude of closures over two years. A Bloomberg report said industrial metals

rallied almost 30 per cent in 2016 as demand stabilised in China and Donald Trump pledged to

invest in infrastructure and revitalise the US economy, while mine closures curbed supply.

Chinese investors have added to the speculative binge, it added.

Zinc futures traded 2.02 per cent lower at Rs 184.55 per kg today as speculators trimmed

positions to book profits even as the metal strengthened overseas. Zinc for delivery in

December declined by Rs 3.80, or 2.02 per cent, to Rs 184.55 per kg at the Multi Commodity

Exchange. It clocked a business turnover of 1,116 lots. Likewise, the metal for delivery in

January softened by Rs 3.75, or 1.98 per cent, to Rs 185.20 per kg in 16 lots. Analysts said the

weakness in zinc at futures trade was mostly attributed to profit-booking at current levels, but

metal's strength at the London Metal Exchange amid signs that production will trail demand,

capped the fall. Globally, zinc for delivery in three months climbed 1 per cent to USD 2,728 per

tonne on the LME. Prices climbed 9.8 per cent last month, the steepest advance since April 2

Tracking a weak trend overseas, nickel prices fell by 0.43 per cent to Rs 761.50 per kg in

futures market today as participants cut down their bets. Furthermore, tepid demand from

consuming industries particularly alloy-makers, at the domestic spot markets, weighed on the

prices. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, nickel for delivery in December was down by Rs

3.30, or 0.43 per cent to Rs 761.40 per kg in a business turnover of 602 lots. In a similar

fashion, the metal for delivery in January eased by Rs 1.80, or 0.23 per cent to Rs 768 per kg in

6 lots. Analysts attributed the fall in nickel futures to a weak trend overseas where base metals

retreated in London as some investors who piled into last month's metals rally are locking in

some of their gains on the view that the surge driven by speculation of rising US and Chinese

demand moved too fast.

NCDEX - WEEKLY MARKET REVIEW

✍ Sugar

Sugar trade expected to normalise in December There has been a slight pick-up in sugar trade,

which was affected due to the demonetisation drive, in the last three to four days in

Maharashtra. Industry experts expect near normalcy in trade by the next week. “Post

demonetisation, demand was very poor because of currency shortage in the market and prices

fell by R10-30 per quintal. Trade was also impacted to the tune of 30%. However, things have

started picking up,” Mukesh Kuvediya, said secretary general, Bombay Sugar Merchants

Association. Trade had dropped by nearly 30% in this period and it remains to be seen up to

what extent the pick-up in trade happens, he pointed out. Sugar millers in Maharashtra had also

complained about lack in demand from traders in November. The expected decline in the sugar

production during the 2016-17 sugar season (October-September), actual decline in the

domestic sugar stocks during the 2015-16 season and a global sugar deficit scenario has kept

prices up.

Sugar output up 17% till end Nov Sugar output in the first two months of the 2016-17 sugar

year was up 17 per cent at 27.41 lakh tonnes over the corresponding period last year as more

factories began early crushing. About 365 factories had started crushing as on November 30 as

against 340 in the corresponding period last year, according to the Indian Sugar Mills

Association , the apex trade body. About 136 mills had begun crushing in Maharashtra and

have, so far, produced 9.6 lakh tonnes of the sweetener. In Uttar Pradesh, 101 mills have started

crushing operations and produced 8.51 lakh tonnes. Similarly in Karnataka, about 58 sugar

mills produced around 7 lakh tonnes and in Gujarat, about 18 factories produced 1.37 lakh

tonnes. Crushing operations in all the other States have also begun and production stood at 1.03

lakh tonnes up to November 30.

Soybean✍

Soybean futures closed higher for the week but the prices are trading flat and tried to stabilize

at the current levels as the arrivals of soybean in the domestic market keeping the supplies more

that the demand. The most-active Dec’16 delivery contract closed 0.30% higher last week to

settle at Rs. 3,112 per quintal. It is expectation that the peak arrivals will be observed during the

month of December. SOPA has raised the estimate for 2016-17 (JulJun) soybean output in the

country to 115 lt from 109 lt estimated earlier which is quite bearish for the domestic price.

CBOT soybean prices closed lower on Friday on reports of improved weather in South America

for soybean planting and expectation of Chinese purchases of US soybean. Soybean prices have

been supported by strong demand for U.S. supplies led by China, but the export sales notices to

China dropped by over 45% in November to 1.16 mt from 2.1 mt in October. Market

participants are in apprehension that demand may not be sustained at such high prices when

supplies are looking pretty good.

✍ Rape/mustard Seed

Mustard seed futures closed higher on week due to winter demand by the industrial buyers and

increase in MSP. However, the prices have corrected in last two trading sessions due to profit

booking. The Dec’16. contract ended 2.86% higher last week to settle at Rs. 4,778/quintal.

There are reports of good sowing progress in the state of Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh and MP. As

per agriculture ministry data, Country’s mustard acreage in the ongoing rabi season touched

61.7 lakh hectares as on Dec 02 up 13.6% from a year ago. The sowing operations were not

affected much, as farmers had already bought the seeds. Rajasthan, the top mustard producing

state, planted 27.3 lakh ha, up 17% from a year ago similarly acreage under mustard increase

by 10% in Uttar Pradesh to 11 lh. In MP, mustard is sown in 6.35 lh, up 12% compared to last

year. Govt increases mustard MSP by 350 rupees/100 kg to 3,700 rupees for FY16-17 which

includes bonus of Rs.100 /quintals.

✍ Refined Soy Oil

Refined soy oil futures closed higher last week tracking international prices and increase in

tariff values by the government. The most active Ref Soy oil Dec’16 expiry contract closed

3.19% higher on week to settle at Rs. 732.5/10kg. The tariff value of crude soyoil was raised by

$4 per tn to $876 which was the fifth increase in two and half month by the government. The

tariff value of soy oil has been increase by about 6.5% since 15-Sep-16. As per SEA data, India

October crude soyoil import 277,878 tonnes, lower by 31 % compared to 405,186 tonnes year

ago while, India’s 2015/16 crude soyoil import 4.23 mt vs 2.99 mt – an increase of 41% y/y for

the current oil year (Nov-Oct).

Jeera✍

Jeera futures were volatile during the last week and closed down mainly due to reports of good

progress of Jeera sowing in Gujarat. However, tight supplies and fresh export enquiries

supported prices. NCDEX Dec’16 Jeera closed 1.55% down to close at Rs 18,480 per quintal.

Jeera sowing in Gujarat and Rajasthan have started. As on 28-Nov- 16, Gujarat farmers have

planted jeera in 1,41,100 hectares, up by 122.5% compared to last year acreage. The stock

position in NCDEX warehouse is at lower level compared to last year stocks. As on 02- Dec-

2016, new Jeera stock position at NCDEX approved warehouses in Jodhpur and Unjha is

totaled at 141 tonnes while it was 159 tonnes last week. Last year stocks were about 5,336

tonnes. According Department of commerce data, the exports of Jeera in the first five months

(Apr-Aug) of 2016-17 is recorded at 60,907 tonnes, higher by 62% compared to same period

last year. The exports of jeera during August 2016 increase 65% m/m to 9,003 tonnes while

there is also increase exports y/y by 65.7%.

✍ Turmeric

Turmeric futures closed lower last week on reports of good production from new season crops

as the harvesting will begins in the next month. However, the prices have been supported over

7,200 levels as rains are expected in the Turmeric growing regions of Telangana. Turmeric

Dec’16 delivery contract on NCDEX closed 1.12% lower to settle at Rs 7,264 per quintal. The

stock positions of Turmeric in the Exchange warehouses in the current season are only stock at

Sangali while last year the stocks were stored in Duggirala, Erode and Nizamabad too. On the

export front, country exported about 51,147 tonnes of turmeric during April-August period, up

by 32% compared last year, as per government data. Expectations of increasing production in

coming harvesting season and lowering export demand in recent months are putting pressure on

turmeric prices at higher levels. Turmeric acreage in Telangana and Andhra Pradesh was higher

this year as compared last year.

✍ Kapas

Cotton complex prices closed higher last week due to good demand for new season cotton.

However, the gain was limited due to ease in arrivals of seed cotton (Kapas) in the physical

market. The total supplies of cotton in the domestic market during 2016/17 will be lower at 408

lakh bales compared to 427 lakh bales as compared to last year supplies as per latest release by

CAI due less carry over stock and imports. NCDEX Kapas for Apr’17 closed 1.04% higher

while MCX Nov’16 cotton closed 0.05% higher. For the current season, cotton arrivals in the

country are pegged at 45.43 lakh bales (lb) as on 27 November, 2016. As per Agmarknet data,

during November about 34 lakh bales has arrived in the country. As per ICAC press release,

India's cotton exports are seen falling 34% on

year to 825,000 tonnes in 2016-17 (Oct-Sep) as shortage of cash has led to delays in sales of

cotton and shipments to ports. On the production front, CAI estimated 356 lakh bales (170 kg

each) for the season 2016-17 (Oct-Sep), as against the government’s first estimate of 321.2 lakh

bales. Cotton area is down by 11.6% at 105.6 lh against 116 lh last year.

ICE Cotton futures marked its second successive weekly decline slipped about 0.3% for the

week due to good harvesting progress of the US cotton and slowdown in exports. The U.S.

Department of Agriculture's weekly crop progress report released on 28-Nov-16 showed that

77% of cotton crops were harvested in the United States by the week ended Nov. 27, up from

67 % in the previous week but lower than the five year average of 84%. However, USDA

showed net upland sales of 202,300 running bales for the week Nov 18-24 were down 21%

from the previous week but up 1 percent from the prior 4-week average for the 2016/17 crop.

The data from the Commodity Futures Trading Commission showed that managed money

raising its net long position in cotton contracts on ICE Futures U.S. to a record high in the week

to Nov. 29. It raised their net long position in cotton by 744 lots to 101,392 lots which is the

highest level since the data became publicly available in 2006. As per ICAC, world ending

stocks are forecast to decrease further by 7% to 17.8 mt at the end of 2016/17 as China

continues to reduce its stocks. Ending stocks in China will decreased by 13% to 11.3 mt as the

Chinese government sold over 2mt from its official reserves from May through September

2016.

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