✍ MCX DAILY LEVELS

DAILY EXPIRY

DATE

R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4

ALUMINIUM 29 JAN 2016 107.75 105.15 102.55 101.65 99.95 99 97.35 94.75 92.15

COPPER 29 FEB 2016 316.50 309.90 303.20 300.25 296.55 293.60 289.90 283.30 276.60

CRUDE OIL 19 FEB2016 2404 2329 2254 2222 2179 2147 2104 2029 1954

GOLD 05 FEB

2016

27019 26595 26171 25904 25747 25480 25323 24899 24475

LEAD 29 JAN 2016 115.05 113.30 111.55 110.70 109.80 108.95 108.05 106.30 104.55

NATURAL GAS 25 JAN 2016 177.30 167.40 157.50 151.10 147.60 141.20 137.70 127.80 117.90

NICKEL 29 JAN 2016 642.80 619.90 597 588.20 574.10 565.30 551.20 528.30 505.40

SILVER 04 MAR 2016 36068 35327 34586 34112 33845 33371 33104 32363 31622

ZINC 29 JAN 2016 108 105.70 103.40 102.60 101.10 100.30 98.80 96.50 94.20

✍ MCX WEEKLY LEVELS

WEEKLY EXPIRY R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4

ALUMINIUM 29 JAN 2016 109.20 106.05 102.90 101.80 99.75 98.65 96.60 93.45 90.30

COPPER 29 FEB 2016 323.75 314.65 305.55 301.40 296.45 292.30 287.35 278.25 269.15

CRUDE OIL 19 FEB 2016 2856 2639 2422 2306 2205 2089 1988 1771 1554

GOLD 05 FEB 2016 27563 26961 26359 25998 25757 25396 25155 24553 23951

LEAD 29 JAN 2016 120.90 117 113 111.45 109.10 107.50 105.10 101.20 97.20

NATURAL GAS 25 JAN 2016 216 194.50 173 158.80 151.50 137.30 130 108.50 87

NICKEL 29 JAN 2016 684.90 646.20 607.50 593.50 568.80 554.80 530.10 491.40 452.70

SILVER 04 MAR

2016

36778 35771 34764 34201 33757 33194 32750 31743 30736

ZINC 26 JAN 2016 116 110.70 105.40 103.60 100.10 98.30 94.80 89.50 84.20

WEEKLY MCX CALL

BUY ZINC JAN ABOVE 102 TGT 104 SL 99.95

PREVIOUS WEEK CALL

SELL CRUDEOIL JAN BELOW 2154 TGT 2306 SL 2000 - TGT ACHEIVED

BUY LEAD JAN ABOVE 111.30 TGT 113.30 SL 108.85 - NOT EXECUTED.

✍ FOREX DAILY LEVELS

DAILY EXPIRY

DATE

R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4

USDINR 27 JAN 2016 69 68.55 68.10 67.90 67.65 67.45 67.20 66.75 66.30

GBPINR 27 JAN 2016 75.9

0

75.15 74.45 74.15 73.70 73.40 73 72.25 71.50

EURINR 27 JAN 2016 98.6

0

98.15 97.70 97.45 97.25 97 96.80 96.35 95.90

JPYINR 27 JAN 2016 59.5

0

58.80 58.15 87.95 87.50 57.25 56.85 56.20 55.55

✍ FOREX WEEKLY LEVELS

DAILY EXPIRY

DATE

R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4

USDINR 27 JAN 2016 70.3

5

69.40 68.45 68.10 67.50 67.20 66.55 65.60 64.65

GBPINR 27 JAN 2016 78.4

0

76.75 75.10 74.55 73.50 72.95 71.85 70.20 68.55

EURINR 27 JAN 2016 100.

15

99.15 98.15 97.65 97.15 96.65 96.15 95.15 94.15

JPYINR 27 JAN 2016 61.1

5

59.85 58.60 58.15 57.35 56.90 56.05 54.80 53.50

WEEKLY FOREX CALL

BUY GBPINR JAN ABOVE 97.52 TGT 98.50 SL 96.89

PREVIOUS WEEK CALLL

SELL EURINR JAN BELOW 72.79 TGT 72.06 SL 73.72 - SL TRIGGERED

✍ NCDEX DAILY LEVELS

DAILY EXPIRY

DATE

R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4

SYOREFIDR 19 FEB 2016 621 615 609 605 603 599 597 591 585

SYBEANIDR 19 FEB 2016 4038 3953 3868 3816 3783 3731 3698 3613 3528

RMSEED 20 APR

20165

4298 4239 4180 4142 4121 4083 4062 4003 3944

JEERAUNJHA 18 MAR 2016 14453 14263 14073 14006 13883 13815 13695 13505 13310

CHANA 20 APR 2016 4546 4491 4436 4408 4381 4353 4326 4271 4216

CASTORSEED 19 FEB 2016 3671 3621 3571 3550 3521 3500 3471 3421 3371

✍ NCDEX WEEKLY LEVELS

WEEKLY EXPIRY

DATE

R4 R3 R2 R1 PP S1 S2 S3 S4

SYOREFIDR 19 FEB 2016 661 640 619 610 598 589 577 556 535

SYBEANIDR 19 FEB 2016 4272 4100 3928 3846 3756 3674 3584 3412 3240

RMSEED 20 APR 2016 4460 4348 4236 4170 4124 4058 4012 3900 3788

JEERAUNJHA 18 MAR 2016 15278 14838 14395 14155 13955 13715 13515 13075 12635

CHANA 20 APR 2016 4730 4612 4494 4437 4376 4319 4258 4140 4022

CASTORSEED 19 FEB 2016 4160 3961 3762 3646 3563 3447 3364 3165 2966

WEEKLY NCDEX CALL

SELL SOYABEAN FEB BELOW 3769 TGT 3700 SL 3840

BUY CASTORSEED FEB ABOVE 3545 TGT 3629 SL 3459

PREVIOUS WEEK CALL

SELL JEERA JAN BELOW 14000 TGT 13600 SL 14630 - MADE LOW OF 13760

BUY DHANIYA APR ABOVE 7940 TGT 8100 SL 7734 - SL TRIGGERED.

MCX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS

INTERNATIONAL NEWS

✍ GLOBAL NEWS

Alcoa Inc said on Thursday it will permanently close its 269,000 tonne-per-year Warrick

Operations smelter in Evansville, Indiana, by the end of first quarter, the latest in a string of

U.S. smelter curtailments as producers struggle with tumbling prices. Warrick is the largest

operating aluminum smelter in the United States, and its closure will leave Alcoa with just one

active smelter: 130,000 tonne-per-year Massena West, which was saved from closure with $70

million in aid from New York state.

The Indian Rupee fell to its lowest level since September ’13 and

depreciated by 0.7 percent in the last week mainly due to strong demand for the American

currency from importers and banks. Mixed trading in the Asian markets governed the trend of

the Indian markets and its currency. However, US Dollar Index’s weakness against some other

currencies overseas limited the rupee’s fall. Domestic markets i.e. Sensex and Nifty closed in

negative after the oil prices plunged to lower levels which heightened fears about the global

economy. Moreover, disappointing release of inflation, industrial and WPI data from the nation

further dented the market sentiments.

The US Dollar Index strengthened by 0.8 percent in the last week as market discounted the

robust release of job openings and Non-Farm Employment Change data from the nation. The

number of job openings rose more than expected in November thereby infusing optimism in the

market with respect to an improving labor market and strength of the economy.

✍ Gold

On the MCX, gold prices rose by 0.5 percent last week to close at Rs.26112 per 10 gms ,Last

week, spot gold prices declined by 1.4 percent to close at $1088.7 per ounce Prices traded to a

1-1/2-week low on Thursday, pressured by a U.S. Federal Reserve president's comments about

potentially rethinking further rate hikes, triggering technical sell signals while shrugging off a

rebound from 12-year lows in oil prices. St. Louis Federal Reserve President James Bullard

said a continued decline in inflation expectations may change his outlook for further Fed rate

hikes, though so far he feels the United States continues on a healthy track. Chicago Federal

Reserve Bank President Charles Evans said he was nervous about the potential effects of

China's slowdown on the U.S. economy and about the possibility that inflation expectations

may be slipping

India’s gold import in December 2015 is estimated to have crossed 100 tonnes following sharp

increase in demand for the precious metal during the first and the last week of the month when

prices fell sharply world over. With 105 tonnes of estimated imports in December, total gross

import in 2015 crossed 900 tonnes which was 25 per cent more than 2014. In terms of value, it

was up about 12 per cent at around $35 billion, as December import bill was around $3.7

billion. India imported $31.17 billion worth gold in 2014. Sudheesh Nambiath, lead analyst,

GFMS Thomson Reuters said, “Gold demand increased in December when prices were at the

lowest level in 2015, and as retailers increased their inventory to optimum levels. Our estimate

for December import is 107 tonnes." In 2015, just over 700 tonnes gold was net import as rest

was duty-free imports for re-export after value addition. Despite sharp spurt in quantity

imported, import bill went up by only 12 per cent because of low prices in international market.

Average international gold price fell by 8 per cent in 2015 while the price oscillated in a $246

range. In other words, gold prices in international market fell by nearly 20% from the annual

high. The import bill low also because more imports took place when prices fell below $1,100

per ounce. On the other hand, significant increase in import of unrefined or dore gold happened

at a premium pricing, which at times was a percentage over the LBMA price. Its share in total

supply increased from some 15% to 30% in 2015. Mostly dore is imported at a premium over

the LBMA gold PM price because of heavy competition at sourcing, given the 2 per cent

differential that refiners in excise-free zone enjoy. Dore gold import in net gold purity terms

was more than 200 tonnes as per estimates of GFMS Thomson Reuters. Gold import in

November was 98 tonnes. In March and August 2015, gold import had crossed 100 tonnes

mark as prices were lower, according to GFMS. Gold demand in the last two weeks has again

remained subdued because of traditional belief that this period is inauspicious to buy precious

metal. A bullion dealer said, “Indian demand for gold may or may not increase even when

prices are around bottom but they take inauspicious days seriously." During 2015, there were

apprehensions about gold demand from rural sector because agriculture output was impacted

due to poor rains. However, according to Nambiath, “Pent up demand at lower price levels and

expectation for further weakening of Indian rupee added to the gains."

Gold prices surged Rs 340 to hit over two-month high of Rs 26,550 per ten grams at the bullion

market today, taking positive cues from global market amid pick up in buying by jewellers to

meet wedding season demand. Silver too recovered and reclaimed the Rs 34,000-mark by

rising Rs 220 to Rs 34,015 per kg on increased offtake by industrial units and coin makers. A

weaker rupee, which plunged to hit fresh 28-month low of 67.59 against the dollar yesterday

that made imports costlier also supported the upside in gold prices. Bullion traders said

sentiment got a boost after gold gained the most in six weeks overseas as Chinese stocks fell

into a bear market and the US retail sales capped the weakest year since 2009, increasing

demand for precious metals. Gold in New York, which mostly determines the price trend in the

Indian market, rose 0.96 per cent to USD 1,088.80 an ounce and silver gained 0.61 per cent to

USD 13.91 an ounce in the yesterday's trade. Moreover, increased buying by jewellers at

domestic markets, driven by wedding season also buoyed sentiment. Back home, in the national

capital, gold of 99.9 and 99.5 per cent purity surged by Rs 340 each to Rs 26,550 and Rs

26,400 per ten gram respectively, a level last seen on November 3 last year. It had shed Rs 40

yesterday. Sovereign gold followed suit and edged higher by Rs 100 to Rs 22,400 per piece of

eight gram. A similar trend was also seen in silver ready that recovered by Rs 220 to Rs 34,015

per kg and weekly-based delivery by Rs 225 to Rs 34,025 per kg. Silver coins also spurted by

Rs 1,000 to Rs 49,000 for buying and Rs 50,000 for selling of 100 pieces.

✍ Crude Oil

On the MCX, oil prices declined by 11.1 percent to close at Rs.1996 per barrel.

Global crude benchmark Brent broke below $30 a barrel, its lowest since 2004, for a second

straight day before rebounding. It also settled off the day's highs, after the U.S. State

Department indicated a key Iranian nuclear reactor had been destroyed, as per conditions for

lifting sanctions against Tehran's oil exports. U.S. government data showing builds in crude,

gasoline and diesel supplies augmented fears that demand will stagnate as global markets

contend with oversupply. Concerns about U.S. economic uncertainty also amplified the

declines, the Standard and Poors 500 index dipped below 1900 for the first time since early

October. Prices declined extending a selloff that amid deepening concerns about fragile

Chinese demand and the absence of output restraint

Think oil in the $20s is bad? Some analysts have warned of $20 a barrel; Standard Chartered

has said fund-selling may not relent until it reaches $10. But in Canada, they'd be happy to sell

it for $10.Canadian oil sands producers are feeling pain as bitumen - the thick, sticky substance

at the centre of the heated debate over TransCanada Corp's Keystone XL pipeline - hit a low of

$8.35 on Tuesday, down from as much as $80 less than two years ago. Producers are all losing

money at current prices, First Energy Capital's Martin King said Tuesday at a conference in

Calgary. Which doesn't mean they'll stop. Since most of the spending for bitumen extraction

comes upfront, and thus is a sunk cost, production will continue and grow. Canada will need

more pipeline capacity to transport bitumen out of Alberta by 2019, King said. Bitumen is

another victim of a global glut of petroleum, which has sunk US benchmark prices into the

$20s from more than $100 only 18 months ago. It's cheaper than most other types of crude,

because it has to be diluted with more-expensive lighter petroleum, and then transported

thousands of miles from Alberta to refineries in the US.

✍ Copper

LME Copper prices plunged by 1.9 percent to close at $4331 per tonne as the International

Copper Study Group said that copper production capacity will grow 5% annually in the next

four years. This comes at a time of weak demand from China, which is currently doomed by

stock markets crash and disappointing data. However, Chinese customs data showed purchases

of unwrought copper and copper products in China were the second highest on record in

December. Also, decline in LME stocks restricted fall.

Amid a weak trend in the global market and muted domestic demand, copper prices fell 0.44%

in futures trade today. Copper for delivery in February fell Rs 1.30, or 0.44%, to Rs 295.95 per

kg in a business turnover of 100 lots at the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX). On similar

lines, metal for delivery in far-month April shed Rs 1.20, or 0.40%, to Rs 301.30 per kg in five

lots. Analysts attributed the fall in copper futures to weak global cues where industrial metals

headed for the first back-to-back weekly decline since November as concerns over slowing

demand in China dominated trading ahead of gross domestic product data and output figures

from the world's biggest consumer next week. Globally, copper for delivery in three months

sank as much as 0.60% to $4,390.50 a tonne on the London Metal Exchange.

✍ Nickel

Nickel prices were up by over 1% at Rs 551.30 per kg in futures trade today on pick up in

demand from consuming industries in the spot market amid a firm trend in base metals

overseas. At the Multi Commodity Exchange, nickel for delivery this month moved up by Rs

5.60, or 1.03%, to Rs 551.30 per kg in a business turnover of 1,849 lots. Also, the metal for

delivery in February gained Rs 5.30, or 0.96% to Rs 557.30 per kg in 84 lots. Market analysts

said besides pick-up in domestic demand from alloy-makers, a firm trend in copper and other

base metals in the global market after positive Chinese trade data that showed exports

unexpectedly rose in December, led to the rise in nickel prices at futures trade here. China is

the world's largest consumer of industrial metals.

✍ Lead

Lead prices were down by 0.54% to Rs 109.80 per kg in futures trading today due to sluggish

demand from battery-makers in the spot market amid a weak global trend. At the Multi

Commodity Exchange, lead for delivery in February eased by 60 paise, or 0.54%, to Rs 109.80

per kg in a business turnover of three lots. Metal for delivery in January shed 45 paise, or

0.41%, to Rs 109.40 per kg in 334 lots. Market analysts said sluggish demand from battery-

makers in the spot market amid a weak trend in the base metals pack at the London Metal

Exchange, mainly kept pressure on lead prices at the futures trade.

✍ Aluminium

Aluminium prices fell 0.45% to Rs 100.25 per kg in futures trading today with speculators

indulged in cutting down their positions, taking weak cues from global markets. Furthermore,

subdued demand in the domestic spot markets also weighed on the metal prices. At the Multi

Commodity Exchange, aluminium for delivery in current month shed 45 paise, or 0.45%, to Rs

100.25 per kg in a business turnover of 176 lots. Metal for delivery in February fell by a similar

margin to trade at Rs 100.65 per kg in eight lots. Analysts said the weakness in aluminium at

futures trade was mostly in tandem with a downtrend in select base metals at the London Metal

Exchange (LME) as concerns over slowing demand in China dominated trading ahead of gross

domestic product data and output figures from the world's biggest consumer next week.

✍ NCDEX - WEEKLY NEWS LETTERS

✍ Crop insurance scheme in 2016-17

India will launch its first major crop damage insurance scheme for farmers in the fiscal year

starting April 1, the Agriculture minister Radha Mohan Singh said on Friday, in what could be

Prime Minister Narendra Modi's first significant move to address the distress plaguing the

country's agricultural sector. The impact of unseasonal rains and two straight years of drought

on agriculture that sustains over two-thirds of India's 1.25 billion people has dented Modi's

popularity in the countryside, contributing to a humiliating loss for the premier in elections last

year in the largely rural state of Bihar. India will launch a new farm crop insurance scheme in

2016 and use drones and other technologies to assess crop damage.

Current cold conditions will help winter crops’ The total area sown under rabi crops is

reported at 577 lakh hectare against 595 lakh hectare reported a year ago. Last week, 565

lakh hectare was under winter crops. The government is aiming to increase rabi grain

production by 5% to offset an estimated 2% drop in kharif grain output and rabi sowing is

expected to continue for next couple of weeks, an agriculture ministry official said. The

prevalence of cold weather condition in the last couple of days that followed unusually

high temperature during last few weeks is likely to help the rabi crops consisting of mostly

wheat, pulses and oilseeds. According to data released on Friday, wheat has been sown in

close to 29 million hectare, which is around a million hectare less than the previous year or

from the normal sowing. (

Govt taking steps to meet expected shortfall in pulses: Ram Vilas Paswan Pulses

production in the country is expected to be only tad higher than last year and measures are

being taken to meet the demand through imports, Union Food and Consumer Affairs

Minister Ram Vilas Paswan said on Saturday. “… this year our production may be some

more, but I think that it will remain like last year… 172 lakh tonnes, may be 175 lakh

tonnes, but our demand will be around 235 lakh tonnes,” Paswan said. The added that “…

unless our production is increased the problem we have to solve only through import

system.” Paswan was addressing the consultation meeting of the southern region organised

by Ministry of Consumer Affairs, Food and Public Distribution, aimed at enhancing the

consumer advocacy efforts and issues related to consumer affairs.

Cardamom spices up Cardamom has witnessed a robust start this year. The cardamom

futures contract traded on the Multi Commodity Exchange (MCX) has surged over 5 per

cent in the first two weeks of the New Year. From being one of the worst performers in

2015, cardamom has turned out to be the best performer so far this year among the actively

traded domestic commodity futures contracts. It is currently trading around ₹805 per kg.

Increase in demand well ahead of the festival season with prices ruling well below average

levels of last year, is said to be the key trigger. The MCX-Cardamom futures contract had

plummeted 49 per cent from its high of ₹1,190 per kg in March to record a low of ₹602.6

per kg in December last year. The sharp fall in prices was due to good rains, which resulted

in forecasts of an increase in production to over 25,000 tonnes. However, it now looks like

the excess supply in the domestic market would be well absorbed in the export market.

Guatemala, the world’s largest producer of cardamom, is expected to see a 15 per cent

production drop this year due to dry weather conditions and draught. Given that India is the

second largest producer of cardamom in the world, a pick-up in export demand could help

cardamom prices move higher.

Noting that global commodities markets are behaving in an abnormal way, Niti Aayog

member Ramesh Chand today warned that the country's farm sector crisis is expected to

deepen further in 2016-17 if the current trend of falling global commodities prices is not

reversed.

He also pitched for more private sector involvement, reforms in land lease policy and easy

market access, while emphasizing the need to train farmers with additional skills to get

jobs outside farming to tide over the agricultural crisis. Indian farmers benefited from

rising global food prices from 2005 till 2012, but the situation has worsened in the last two

years. "In the last two years, agriculture is facing very serious problem. Surprisingly,

despite lower production, we are seeing that prices are very low, lower output should

ideally push up prices, but that is not happening now. There is a need to provide some

income to farmers outside agricultural sector. For that, farmers need to be trained to get

jobs outside farming and existing programmes like Start Up India should focus on these

issues as well. Since farmers are leaving farming and not land holdings, a reform in land

lease policy is required to ensure that land is put in use and facilitate tenant farmers to take

up farming with adequate credit access. Observing that it was difficult to assess farmers'

welfare in the absence of data on farmers income and other related issues,NSSO should

publish data on farmers' income annually.

✍ Jeera

Jeera prices closed lower by 0.48 per cent on Thursday at the National Commodity &

Derivatives Exchange Limited (NCDEX) on account of a surge in the supply from the

producing regions in the midst of a decline in the export demand. At the NCDEX, jeera futures

for January 2016 contract closed at Rs. 13,600 per quintal, down by 0.48 per cent, after opening

at Rs. 13,745 against the previous closing price of Rs. 13,665. It touched the intra-day low of

Rs. 13,600.

According to Dept of Commerce data, the export of jeera during first 6 month of 2015-16 (Apr-

Sep) is 44,140 tonnes, which is, lower as compared to last year same period. Jeera (cumin)

exports have been 1.55 lt in 2014-15. According to govt data, exports for 2015-16 shows a

decline trend compared to last year until September. Jeera exports from India are likely to

decline by about 40-45 per cent to around 85,000-1,00,000 tonnes during 2015-16 compared to

an estimated exports of around 1.55 lt last year. As per final estimate of Gujarat State for 2014-

15, production is pegged at 1.97 lt higher by about 24.7 % forecasted in its fourth advance

estimate of 1.58 lt. Last years’ production was 3.46 lt, down 43%.

Gujarat, the top cumin producing state, has planted more cumin until Jan 11, 2016 compared to

last year sowing progress. In Gujarat, jeera is planted about 11% more area at 2,93,400 hectares

compared to 2,64,500 hectares last year same time. As per Agmarknet data, arrivals of Jeera in

Gujarat markets for the calendar year 2015 till Oct is lower by 217 per cent at about 1.23 lt

compared to 3.9 lt last year.

✍ Chana

Chana prices closed lower by 0.21 per cent on Thursday at the National Commodity &

Derivatives Exchange Limited (NCDEX) as a result of the steady sowing progress of pulses

along with high supplies in major producing states. At the NCDEX, chana futures for January

2016 contract closed at Rs. 4,861 per quintal, down by 0.21 per cent, after opening at Rs. 4,880

against the previous closing price of Rs. 4,871. It touched the intra-day low of Rs. 4,861.

This year chana is sown in 3.5 per cent higher acreage at 83.67 lakh tonnes (lt), compared with

80.84 lt last year, as per data release by Agriculture Ministry on Jan 8. The acreage under chana

reported higher in Maharashtra (14 lh Vs 10.6 lh), Andhra Pradesh (3.32 lh Vs 2.67 lh) and

Karnataka compared to last year’s acreage but slightly lower in Rajasthan (12.35 lh Vs 12.56

lh) and MP as per data released by respective state agriculture department. India has imported

3.07 lt of Chana until September in the current financial year.

✍ Mustard seed

Mustard Seed prices closed lower by 1.17 per cent on Tuesday at the National Commodity &

Derivatives Exchange Limited (NCDEX) as a result of the profit booking by the traders on

account of the weak crushing and export demand of mustard meal. At the NCDEX, Mustard

Seed futures for January 2016 contract closed at Rs. 4,374 per quintal, down by 1.17 per cent,

after opening at Rs. 4,447 against the previous closing price of Rs. 4,426. It touched the intra-

day low of Rs. 4,365. Sentiment weakened further due to the sluggish export demand as a result

of the weak demand for the commodity.

Mustard oil consumption has fallen over the past two to three months by almost 60%. There is

a worry in the industry about the rabi crop as the winter chill, which is required for the mustard

crop, is still missing. Area coverage of RM seed this year is lower by 3.5 lakh ha compared to

corresponding period of Rabi 2014-15 as per latest government data release. Mustard is planted

on 60.8 lakh hectare. In Rajasthan, 23.7 lh has been sown as on Dec 17, compared to 24.34 lh

sown last year same time. On the export front, the shipment of rapeseed meal exports plunge

y/y by more than 61.4 per cent until Nov to 2.95 lt . Mustard oil prices, which had been on the

upswing in the last few months, has shown a steady declining trend since December. The trend

is likely to continue in the coming weeks too on hopes of a good harvest.

Though the area covered under mustard is, so far, less than 2015, industry players feel that

production would be good as the standing crop is in a somewhat better condition. This should

come as good news for the government, which has, in the last few months, grappled with

sudden spike in prices of onion and then pulses.Data from the department of consumer affairs

shows that since December 1, retail price of a kilogram of packaged mustard oil has fallen by

Rs 9 to Rs 5. (see chart) The 2015-16 mustard crop as per industry estimates is expected to be

6.14 million tonnes, up from 4.78 million tonnes last year, though the area covered is less.

According to data from the department of agriculture, till last week, 6.27 million hectares,

around 200,000 hectares less than last year was covered. The area covered was less in

Rajasthan, Madhya Pradesh and Uttar Pradesh, but it was higher in Haryana.There is a large

fluctuation in mustard’s prices during January. “In the last few days, there has been a steady

decline in prices of mustard oil and the weakness will continue in the coming days too as the

new mustard crop may come in the market after the second week of February. Mustard oil

prices were much higher in the past few months and have had an impact on consumption,

which resulted in consumers shifting to cheap edible oils, he added.

✍ Turmeric

Turmeric futures fell on Friday on reports of subdued demand by the physical market players as

they are waiting for new season crop. The Apr’16 delivery contract at NCDEX closed 5.15%

down w-o-w to settle at Rs 9,642 per quintal. Though there are, reports of production concern

sue to drought in Maharashtra and Andhra Pradesh. There is concern over production due to

heavy rains during Nov-Dec in south India but the prices may remain little lower as trader may

wait for new season crop in next one month. Deficient rainfall in during early part of sowing in

major Turmeric growing regions of Maharashtra and Karnataka may reduce the yield.

Production, Arrivals and Exports As per dept of commerce data, turmeric exports till

September, 2015 pegged at 50,916 tonnes while the export for the 2014-15 is 90,738 tonnes

compared to 78,360 tonnes in FY14. As on latest sowing data, turmeric sowing In AP, is

recorded at 15,864 hectares increase over last years’ acreage as well normal sowing area

progress however in Telangana, the sowing area is lower than the normal sowing area at 40,823

hac compared to 43,470 hac last year.

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