2009-10-figures-macro (1)

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1 The crisis

115

110

Dynamics of Real GDP

(May 2004=100)

ITALYUS

Macroeconomics Definitions and statistical regularities

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2GDP growth in the long run (US)

120

110

100

log(GDP)

90

80

1 9 2 9

1 9 3 9

1 9 4 9

1 9 5 9

1 9 6 9

1 9 7 9

1 9 8 9

1 9 9 9


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3GDP rowth in the lon run Ital

300

400

GDP

HP trend

200

GDP growth in Italy

100

(1960=100)

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000


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4Economic fluctuationsFluctuations of GDP in Italy

(differences with respect to the HP trend)


1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000

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5 The unem lo ment rate12

10

8

4

2 ITALY US

0

0 0 0

0 0 1

0 0 2

0 0 3

0 0 4

0 0 5

0 0 6

0 0 7

0 0 8

0 0 9


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6Unem lo ment in the lon run

14 Euro Area

12US

Japan

8

4

6

2

1 9 6 0

1 9 6 5

1 9 7 0

1 9 7 5

1 9 8 0

1 9 8 5

1 9 9 0

1 9 9 5

2 0 0 0

2 0 0 5


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7ComovementsVariations in GDP and the unemployment rate

(U.S. - 1960-2002)

8

GDP RATE O F UNEMPLO YMENT

4

6

2

0

-4

-

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000


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8 The Okun Law

9,0

'

u

(U.S. - 1960-2002)

6,0

3,0

0,0 y

-3,0

- -


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9 And in Ital ?Fluctuations of GDP and unemployment12 1

a y - -

8

0 5

4

-4

-8

-0,5

Fluctuations of GDP

% Var. of unemployment-12

1 9 6 1

1 9 6 6

1 9 7 1

1 9 7 6

1 9 8 1

1 9 8 6

1 9 9 1

1 9 9 6

2 0 0 1

-1


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10Hours worked

3

2

0

1

r s w o r k e

d

-1

V a r . o

f h o u

Okun's law

(Italy - 1971-2002)-3

-2 %

-4-4 -2 0 2 4 6 8

% Var. of GDP


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11Prices120

110

Consumer Price IndexCPI (2005=100)

USA

ITA

80

0 0 0

0 0 1

0 0 2

0 0 3

0 0 4

0 0 5

0 0 6

0 0 7

0 0 8

0 0 9


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12Inflation rates

20

ITALY

15

EUROAREA

US

10

5

-5

1960 1965 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005


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13Deflation

25

20% variationof rices in

15 Japan

10

5

-5 1 9 6 0

1 9 7 0

1 9 8

1 9 9 0

2 0 0 0


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14Stock rices 1990=100500

400

450

300

350

200250

100

150

Index in the U.S.

0

50

0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8


1 9 1 9 1 9 1 9 1 9 1 9 1 9 1 9 1 9 1 9 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0 2 0

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15 The oil rice 1160

120

140

Price in Dollars

80

100Price in Euros

60

20

1 9 9 9

2 0 0 0

2 0 0 1

2 0 0 2

2 0 0 3

2 0 0 4

2 0 0 5

2 0 0 6

2 0 0 7

2 0 0 8


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16 The oil rice 2

Real Price The oil price for ItalPrice $

Price

10.000

1.000

100

9 6 0

9 7 0

9 8 0

9 9 0

0 0 0


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17 The exchan e rate 1

1,5

1,6

1,21,3

,

0,91,0

,

$/

0,8

/ 1 9 9 9

/ 2 0 0 0

/ 2 0 0 1

/ 2 0 0 2

/ 2 0 0 3

/ 2 0 0 4

/ 2 0 0 5

/ 2 0 0 6

/ 2 0 0 7

/ 2 0 0 8

1 / 1

1 / 1

1 / 1

1 / 1

1 / 1

1 / 1

1 / 1

1 / 1

1 / 1

1 / 1


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18 The exchan e rate 2

2500

2000

1500

1000

500 Lira / Dollar

0

1 9 6 0

1 9 7 0

1 9 8 0

1 9 9 0

2 0 0 0


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19 The Philli s curve

The Phillips curveItaly - 1980-2000

25

15 a t e

10 I n f l a t i o

n

5

04 6 8 10 12 14

Unemployment rate


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20 A little of caution25

1980

Inflation and unemployment(Italy - 1960 - 2004)

20

15 r

a t e

10 I n f l a t i o

19701990

51960

0

2 4 6 8 10 12 14

2000

Unemployment rate


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21St lized facts on C and I About consumption :

1. There is a stron correlation in the lon run betweenconsumption ( C ) and output ( Y ):

Consumption and GDPItaly 1960-2004

l d s ' o n s u m p t

i o

H o u s e h o

Macroeconomics Aggregate expenditure

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22Comovement of C and Y - Ital2. There is a clear comovement between fluctuations of C

"Comovement" of Consumption and GDP(Italy - differences with respect to the HP trend)4

an uc ua ons o see ere e comovemen n a y ;

2

3

0

1

-2

-1

-4

-3

0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0

GDP

Consumption

1 9 1 9 1 9 1 9 1 9 1 9 1 9 1 9 2 0


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23Comovement of C and Y U.S. And see here the comovement in the U.S.:

6

8

Var% Pil

Var% Consumo

4

2

Comovement of Consumption and GDP(U.S. - 1960-2002)-2

0

-4

9 6 0

9 6 5

9 7 0

9 7 5

9 8 0

9 8 5

9 9 0

9 9 5

0 0 0


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24Consum tion and dis osable income103. Consumption

Consumption and disposable income(U.S. 1960-2004)

8

changes withdisposable

6

n s u m p t i o

The Figure shows

4 H o u s e h o l d s ' c o

C = 0.95 Yd

e case o . .:Consumption ishi hl ro ortional

2

to disposable

income.

00 2 4 6 8 10

Households'disposable income


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25St lized facts on investment1. Investment is more volatile than consumption; its

fluctuations are wider:

Fluctuations of Consumption and Investiment(Italy - Differences with respect to the HP trend)

15

5

10

0

-10

-5

Investimento

-20

-15

0 5 0 5 0 5 0 5 0

onsumo

1 9 1 9 1 9 1 9 1 9 1 9 1 9 1 9 2 0


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26Investment and GDP2. The correlation between the fluctuations of I and those of

Y is less clear and re uires some ex lanation:

Investment and GDP dynamics15

20

(Italy - 1960-2004)

10

0

5

a r . o

f I n v e s t i m e n

t

-5

%

-15

-10

-3 0 3 6 9

% Var. of GDP


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27 The deficit-GDP ratio US %

4

2

-2

0

A u g - 5

9

A p r - 6 1

N o v - 6

2

J u l - 6 4

M a r - 6 6

N o v - 6

7

J u l - 6 9

M a r - 7 1

N o v - 7

2

J u l - 7 4

M a r - 7 6

N o v - 7

7

J u l - 7 9

M a r - 8 1

N o v - 8

2

J u l - 8 4

M a r - 8 6

N o v - 8

7

J u l - 8 9

M a r - 9 1

N o v - 9

2

J u l - 9 4

M a r - 9 6

N o v - 9

7

J u l - 9 9

M a r - 0 1

N o v - 0

2

J u l - 0 4

M a r - 0 6

N o v - 0

7

-4

-8

-

-10

Macroeconomics Public Deficits and Debt

-

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28 The debt-GDP ratio US %80

60

70

40

50

30

10

0

F e b - 5

2

J a n - 5

4

N o v - 5

5

O c t - 5 7

S e p - 5

9

A u g - 6

1

J u l - 6 3

J u n - 6

5

M a y - 6

7

A p r - 6 9

M a r - 7 1

F e b - 7

3

J a n - 7

5

N o v - 7

6

O c t - 7 8

S e p - 8

0

A u g - 8

2

J u l - 8 4

J u n - 8

6

M a y - 8

8

A p r - 9 0

M a r - 9 2

F e b - 9

4

J a n - 9

6

N o v - 9

7

O c t - 9 9

S e p - 0

1

A u g - 0

3

J u l - 0 5

J u n - 0

7

Macroeconomics Public Deficits and Debt

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29 The monetar base US millions of $1800000

1600000

1200000

800000

1000000

600000

400000

J a n - 0

0

M a y - 0

0

S e p - 0

0

J a n - 0

1

M a y - 0

1

S e p - 0

1

J a n - 0

2

M a y - 0

2

S e p - 0

2

J a n - 0

3

M a y - 0

3

S e p - 0

3

J a n - 0

4

M a y - 0

4

S e p - 0

4

J a n - 0

5

M a y - 0

5

S e p - 0

5

J a n - 0

6

M a y - 0

6

S e p - 0

6

J a n - 0

7

M a y - 0

7

S e p - 0

7

J a n - 0

8

M a y - 0

8

S e p - 0

8

J a n - 0

9

M a y - 0

9

Macroeconomics Money

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30Mone su l US M2 billions of $9000

8000

8500

6500

7000

5500

6000

4500

5000

4000

J a n - 0

0

M a y - 0

0

S e p - 0

0

J a n - 0

1

M a y - 0

1

S e p - 0

1

J a n - 0

2

M a y - 0

2

S e p - 0

2

J a n - 0

3

M a y - 0

3

S e p - 0

3

J a n - 0

4

M a y - 0

4

S e p - 0

4

J a n - 0

5

M a y - 0

5

S e p - 0

5

J a n - 0

6

M a y - 0

6

S e p - 0

6

J a n - 0

7

M a y - 0

7

S e p - 0

7

J a n - 0

8

M a y - 0

8

S e p - 0

8

J a n - 0

9

M a y - 0

9


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31 The monetar multi lier US10

8

9

5

6

34

1

2

J a n - 0

0

J u n - 0

0

N o v - 0

0

A p r - 0 1

S e p - 0

1

F e b - 0

2

J u l - 0 2

D e c - 0

2

M a y - 0

3

O c t - 0 3

M a r - 0 4

A u g - 0

4

J a n - 0

5

J u n - 0

5

N o v - 0

5

A p r - 0 6

S e p - 0

6

F e b - 0

7

J u l - 0 7

D e c - 0

7

M a y - 0

8

O c t - 0 8

M a r - 0 9

A u g - 0

9


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32 The currenc -de osit ratio US %13

12,5

11,5

12

11

10,5

J a n - 0

0

J u n - 0

0

N o v - 0

0

A p r - 0 1

S e p - 0

1

F e b - 0

2

J u l - 0 2

D e c - 0

2

M a y - 0

3

O c t - 0 3

M a r - 0 4

A u g - 0

4

J a n - 0

5

J u n - 0

5

N o v - 0

5

A p r - 0 6

S e p - 0

6

F e b - 0

7

J u l - 0 7

D e c - 0

7

M a y - 0

8

O c t - 0 8

M a r - 0 9

A u g - 0

9


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33 The reserve-de osit ratio US %14

10

12

8

4

6

0

2

J a n - 0

0

J u n - 0

0

N o v - 0

0

A p r - 0 1

S e p - 0

1

F e b - 0

2

J u l - 0 2

D e c - 0

2

M a y - 0

3

O c t - 0 3

M a r - 0 4

A u g - 0

4

J a n - 0

5

J u n - 0

5

N o v - 0

5

A p r - 0 6

S e p - 0

6

F e b - 0

7

J u l - 0 7

D e c - 0

7

M a y - 0

8

O c t - 0 8

M a r - 0 9

A u g - 0

9


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34Reserves US millions of $1000000

800000

900000

500000

600000

300000400000

REQUIRED RESERVES

TOTAL RESERVES

100000

200000

J a n - 0

0

A u g - 0

0

M a r - 0 1

O c t - 0 1

M a y - 0

2

D e c - 0

2

J u l - 0 3

F e b - 0

4

S e p - 0

4

A p r - 0 5

N o v - 0

5

J u n - 0

6

J a n - 0

7

A u g - 0

7

M a r - 0 8

O c t - 0 8

M a y - 0

9


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2009-10-figures-macro (1)