2011 Grain/Feed Market Outlook

University Extension/Department of Economics

2011 Grain/Feed Market Outlook

ISU Ag. Extension In-ServiceAmes, Iowa

Mar. 23, 2011

Chad HartAssistant Professor/Grain Markets Specialist

[email protected]


U.S. Corn Supply and Use

Source: USDA

2007 2008 2009 2010

Area Planted (mil. acres) 93.5 86.0 86.4 88.2

Yield (bu./acre) 150.7 153.9 164.7 152.8

Production (mil. bu.) 13,038 12,092 13,092 12,447

Beg. Stocks (mil. bu.) 1,304 1,624 1,673 1,708

Imports (mil. bu.) 20 14 8 20

Total Supply (mil. bu.) 14,362 13,729 14,774 14,175

Feed & Residual (mil. bu.) 5,913 5,182 5,140 5,200

Ethanol (mil. bu.) 3,049 3,709 4,568 4,950

Food, Seed, & Other (mil. bu.) 1,338 1,316 1,371 1,400

Exports (mil. bu.) 2,437 1,849 1,987 1,950

Total Use (mil. bu.) 12,737 12,056 13,066 13,500

Ending Stocks (mil. bu.) 1,624 1,673 1,708 675

Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 4.20 4.06 3.55 5.40


U.S. DDG Supply and Use2008 2009 2010

Production (mil. metric tons) 26.5 33.1 35.9

Imports (mil. metric tons) 0.3 0.4 0.5

Total Supply (mil. metric tons) 26.8 33.5 36.4

Domestic (mil. metric tons) 21.8 25.2 26.1

Exports (mil. metric tons) 5.0 8.3 10.3

Total Use (mil. metric tons) 26.8 33.5 36.4

Average Price ($/ton) 122 113 150

My estimates, so take with a grain (or pound) of salt


Feed Pricing

Source: USDA

0.4

0.6

0.8

1

1.2

1.4

1.6

1.8

2

Jan

. 20

07

= 1

Corn Corn gluten feed DDGs


U.S. Soybean Supply and Use2007 2008 2009 2010

Area Planted (mil. acres) 64.7 75.7 77.5 77.4

Yield (bu./acre) 41.7 39.7 44.0 43.5

Production (mil. bu.) 2,677 2,967 3,359 3,329

Beg. Stocks (mil. bu.) 574 205 138 151

Imports (mil. bu.) 10 13 15 15

Total Supply (mil. bu.) 3,261 3,185 3,512 3,495

Crush (mil. bu.) 1,803 1,662 1,752 1,655

Seed & Residual (mil. bu.) 93 106 108 110

Exports (mil. bu.) 1,159 1,279 1,501 1,590

Total Use (mil. bu.) 3,056 3,047 3,361 3,355

Ending Stocks (mil. bu.) 205 138 151 140

Season-Average Price ($/bu.) 10.10 9.97 9.59 11.60

Source: USDA


U.S. Soybean Meal Supply and Use2008 2009 2010

Production (thou. short tons) 39,102 41,700 39,583

Beg. Stocks (thou. short tons) 294 235 302

Imports (thou. short tons) 88 160 165

Total Supply (thou. short tons) 39,484 42,095 40,050

Domestic (thou. short tons) 30,752 30,619 30,500

Exports (thou. short tons) 8,497 11,175 9,250

Total Use (thou. short tons) 39,249 41,794 39,750

Ending Stocks (thou. short tons) 235 302 300

Season-Average Price ($/short ton) 331.17 311.27 355.00

Source: USDA


World Corn Production

Source: USDA


World Soybean Production

Source: USDA


La Niña Winter

Source: NOAA

El Niño

Neutral

La Niña


Corn Export Sales

Source: USDA, FAS

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

Week

Mill

ion

bu

she

ls

2008 2009 2010


2010 U.S. Corn Exports

Source: USDA, FAS

Other22%

Unknown7%

China1%

Taiwan6%

SouthKorea

7%

Egypt7% Mexico

17%

Japan29%


Corn Export Shifts

Source: USDA, FAS

Japan

Mexico Taiwan

Egypt Unknown

Other

South Korea

Total

China

-60

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Mill

ion b

ush

els

13.1%

-3.9%

-21.3%

-13.3%

81.4%71.0%

4.4%

7.3%



Corn Advance Export Sales

Source: USDA, FAS

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

12

/30

1/1

3

1/2

7

2/1

0

2/2

4

3/1

0

3/2

4

4/7

4/2

1

5/5

5/1

9

6/2

6/1

6

6/3

0

7/1

4

7/2

8

8/1

1

8/2

5

Mill

ion

bu

shels

2011 Crop 2010 Crop


DDG Exports

Source: USDA

0

1000

2000

3000

4000

5000

6000

7000

8000

9000

2003/04 2004/05 2005/06 2006/07 2007/08 2008/09 2009/10

1,0

00

metr

ic t

on

s

China Mexico Canada TurkeyVietnam South Korea Thailand EUIndonesia Japan Others


DDG Exports So Far This Year

Source: USDA

China25%

Mexico20%

Canada12%

South Korea5%

Vietnam5%

Other33%


Soybean Export Sales

Source: USDA, FAS

0

400

800

1,200

1,600

Week

Mill

ion

bu

she

ls

2008 2009 2010


2010 U.S. Soybean Exports

Source: USDA, FAS

Other11%Unknown

4%Indonesia3%

Mexico6%

Japan5%

Taiwan3%

EU7%

China61%


Soy Export Shifts

Source: USDA, FAS

China

EU JapanMexico

Taiwan

Total

Other

Indonesia

Unknown

-40

-20

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

Mill

ion b

ush

els

15.2%

0.3% 0.2%

7.1%

-8.3%

178.0%

-10.0%

11.2%

3.7%


Soy Advance Export Sales

Source: USDA, FAS

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

12

/30

1/1

3

1/2

7

2/1

0

2/2

4

3/1

0

3/2

4

4/7

4/2

1

5/5

5/1

9

6/2

6/1

6

6/3

0

7/1

4

7/2

8

8/1

1

8/2

5

Mill

ion

bu

shels

2011 Crop 2010 Crop


Soybean Meal Export Sales

Source: USDA, FAS

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

Week in Marketing Year

Mil.

Metr

ic T

on

s

2008 2009 2010


2010 U.S. Soybean Meal Exports

Source: USDA, FAS

EU9%

Philippines13%

Mexico16%

Canada12%

Morocco5%

Unknown4%

Other41%


0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

2010 2011 2012

Bill

ion

ga

llon

s

Conventional Biofuels Cellulosic Biofuels

Biodiesel Additional Advanced Biofuels

Renewable Fuels Standard (RFS)

CropYear

Billion Bushels

2009 4.11

2010 4.43

2011 4.64

2012 4.86


Ethanol Margins

Source: ISU, CARD


Ethanol Margins

Source: ISU, CARD


-0.04

-0.02

0.00

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.10

0.12

0.14

0.16

1/3

/20

07

4/3

/20

07

7/3

/20

07

10

/3/2

007

1/3

/20

08

4/3

/20

08

7/3

/20

08

10

/3/2

008

1/3

/20

09

4/3

/20

09

7/3

/20

09

10

/3/2

009

1/3

/20

10

4/3

/20

10

7/3

/20

10

10

/3/2

010

1/3

/20

11

$ p

er

ga

llon

Ethanol Blending Advantage


0.00

0.02

0.04

0.06

0.08

0.10

0.12

$ p

er

ga

llon

Ethanol Blending Advantage


0.50

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

1/3

/20

07

5/3

/20

07

9/3

/20

07

1/3

/20

08

5/3

/20

08

9/3

/20

08

1/3

/20

09

5/3

/20

09

9/3

/20

09

1/3

/20

10

5/3

/20

10

9/3

/20

10

1/3

/20

11

$ p

er

ga

llon

Ethanol Gasoline

Fuel Prices


Projected 2010 Season-Average Corn Price

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

5.00

5.50

6.00

6/8

/20

09

8/8

/20

09

10

/8/2

009

12

/8/2

009

2/8

/20

10

4/8

/20

10

6/8

/20

10

8/8

/20

10

10

/8/2

010

12

/8/2

010

2/8

/20

11

$ p

er

bu

she

l

Futures USDA


Projected 2010 Season-Average Soy Price

8.00

8.50

9.00

9.50

10.00

10.50

11.00

11.50

12.00

12.50

6/8

/20

09

8/8

/20

09

10

/8/2

009

12

/8/2

009

2/8

/20

10

4/8

/20

10

6/8

/20

10

8/8

/20

10

10

/8/2

010

12

/8/2

010

2/8

/20

11

$ p

er

bu

she

l

Futures USDA


Projected 2011 Season-Average Corn Price

3.50

3.75

4.00

4.25

4.50

4.75

5.00

5.25

5.50

5.75

6.00

6.25

$ p

er

bu

she

l

Futures USDA


Projected 2011 Season-Average Soy Price

8.50

9.00

9.50

10.00

10.50

11.00

11.50

12.00

12.50

13.00

13.50

12/1

4/2

009

1/1

4/2

010

2/1

4/2

010

3/1

4/2

010

4/1

4/2

010

5/1

4/2

010

6/1

4/2

010

7/1

4/2

010

8/1

4/2

010

9/1

4/2

010

10/1

4/2

010

11/1

4/2

010

12/1

4/2

010

1/1

4/2

011

2/1

4/2

011

3/1

4/2

011

$ p

er

bu

she

l

Futures USDA


2008/092007/08

2009/10

2010/11

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

5.00

5.50

0% 5% 10% 15% 20% 25% 30%

Stocks-to-use ratio

Pric

e ($

per

bus

hel)

Corn


Iowa Corn Prices vs. Costs

1.00

1.50

2.00

2.50

3.00

3.50

4.00

4.50

5.00

5.50

6.00

$ p

er

Bu

she

l

Season-average Price Cost per Bushel


Iowa Soybean Prices vs. Costs

2.00

3.00

4.00

5.00

6.00

7.00

8.00

9.00

10.00

11.00

12.00

13.00

14.00

$ p

er

Bu

she

l

Season-average Price Cost per Bushel


Principal Crop Area

Source: USDA-NASS

315

317

319

321

323

325

327

329

331

333

335M

illio

n a

cres


States with Room to GrowState Million acres Competing Crops

North Dakota 2.249 Wheat, corn, soy

South Dakota 1.400 Wheat, corn, soy

Missouri 0.930 Rice, cotton, soy

Arkansas 0.715 Rice, cotton, soy

Illinois 0.535 Wheat, corn, soy

Texas 0.466 Cotton, corn, soy

Georgia 0.395 Cotton, corn, soy

Mississippi 0.284 Cotton, rice, soy

North Carolina 0.284 Cotton, corn, soy

Louisiana 0.283 Rice, cotton, soy


New Crop Futures Price Movements

Wheat Corn Soybeans Cotton

MGE Sept. CME Dec. CME Nov. ICE Dec.

($/bu.) ($/bu.) ($/bu.) ($/lb.)

June 1 5.81 4.04 9.22 0.75

Mar. 22 8.83 6.12 13.44 1.24

Change 52% 52% 46% 65%


Projected Crop Margins

120

140

160

180

200

220

240

260

280

300

320

$ p

er

acr

e

Corn Margin Per Acre Soy Margin Per Acre


Thoughts for 2011 and BeyondGeneral economic conditions

Continued economic recovery is a major key for crop pricesJapanese earthquake and tsunami have shaken those prospects

Supply/demand concerns92 million acres of corn and 78 million acres of soybeans?South America: La Niña impacts (Argentina , Brazil )Biofuels: E15; Ethanol & Biodiesel tax credits renewedWill supply be able to keep pace with demand?

2010/11: USDA: Corn $5.40, Soy $11.60Futures (as of 3/22/2011): Corn $5.37, Soy $11.68

2011/12:Futures (as of 3/22/2011): Corn $5.96, Soy $12.93


Thank you for your time!

Any questions?

My web site:http://www.econ.iastate.edu/~chart/

Iowa Farm Outlook:http://www.econ.iastate.edu/ifo/

Ag Decision Maker:http://www.extension.iastate.edu/agdm/

Documents

2011 Grain/Feed Market Outlook