2012 Draft Guide - Editing

8/3/2019 2012 Draft Guide - Editing

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Ryan McCrystals Draft Guide 2012


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This past year ESPNs Stats and Information department released a new

comprehensive statistic called Total QBR. Its a complicated stat, but the basic concept is

that it weighs every play a quarterback makes based on the situation. For example, a

strong performance late in a three touchdown game will have less of an impact on a

quarterbacks rating than a similar performance late in a tie game.

Overall, this statistic is light years ahead of the outdated Quarterback Rating (whichwas never really all that relevant in the first place). However, like any compressive

statistic, it only tells part of the story.

To learn more about a quarterbacks true value, we can compare his performance

each week to his cumulative rating at seasons end. To do this we first must assume that

there is some value in a consistent performance. A quarterback who performs at either an

extremely high or extremely low level will give his team a strong chance of winning part of

the time, but kill their chances of winning in other games. A quarterback performance at a

consistent, albeit relatively modest, rate will give his team a fighting chance every week.

To adjust Total QBR for a consistent component, I took each quarterbacks weekly

Total QBR and compared it to his final Total QBR. The absolute value of the difference

represents his deviation from the final. For example, if a quarterback has a final Total QBR

of 50 and in Week 17 posted a QBR of 60, his deviation for that week would be 10.

Once we know the deviation for each game, we can then find that quarterbacks average

weekly deviation [see table]. The higher the average deviation, the more inconsistent the

quarterback was in that season.

As you can probably see based on the results, consistency isnt always a good thing,

as fans of the Jaguars, Browns and Rams can attest.

To demonstrate the usefulness of this statistic, lets compare two similar quarterbacks:

Ryan Fitzpatrick (Total QBR: 51.2) and Andy Dalton (47.3). Both Fitzpatrick and Dalton

were surrounded by similar supporting casts and their overall performance was roughly

on par with the league average. But the Bengals made the playoffs, while the Bills went 6-

10. So what happened?

Fitzpatrick ranked as the 3rd most inconsistent quarterback of 2010, meaning the Billswere forced to live and die by his performance. Fitzpatrick posted four Total QBRs in

above 80, and the Bills went 4-0 in those games on strength of his performance. However,

he also posted four Total QBRs below 25, virtually ensuring a Bills loss in those contests.

Dalton, on the other hand, was steady throughout the season. He posted just one

Total QBR over 80, but also had just one under 25. One might call Dalton the perfect

game manager; he rarely carried his team to victory, but rarely he also rarely caused

their demise.

So which quarterback was more valuable? In the long term, thats a debatable

question. One could certainly argue that Fitzpatricks peaks give his team hope for the

future. But in the short term, its hard to argue with the fact that Dalton gave his team a

chance to win on a more consistent basis.

0

100

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16

Total QBR by Week

Fitzpatrick Dalton

Average Weekly Deviation fro

Final Total QBR

Philip Rivers 26.4

Alex Smith 25.1

Ryan Fitzpatrick 24.7Jay Cutler 24.0

Carson Palmer 23.8

Tim Tebow 23.8

Matt Cassel 23.3

Matt Moore 23.2

Eli Manning 23.1

Michael Vick 22.9

Mark Sanchez 22.3

Cam Newton 21.7

Matthew Stafford 21.6

Matt Ryan 21.3Rex Grossman 21.2

Ben Roethlisberger 21.2

John Skelton 21.0

Joe Flacco 20.8

Kyle Orton 20.8

Josh Freeman 20.4

Christian Ponder 20.1

Tony Romo 19.8

Curtis Painter 19.1

Matt Hasselbeck 18.7

Matt Schaub 17.9Tom Brady 16.3

Kevin Kolb 16.3

Andy Dalton 15.9

Tarvaris Jackson 15.1

Sam Bradford 14.5

Colt McCoy 13.3

Blaine Gabbert 12.6

Drew Brees 12.1

Aaron Rodgers 10.8

Evaluating Quarterback Consistency Using ESPNs Total QBR


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Theres no perfect way to evaluate a draft pick. Selections are made based on the offensive and defensive systems in place and the

holes which need to be filled. So while its easily to look back and say

Using Career Approximate Value to Evaluate Past Drafts


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Season Review 8-8 (2nd, NFC West) After a brutal 1-6 start

to the season, which included losses to the lowly Redskins and

Vikings, the Cardinals rebounded to win seven of their final nine

games. That should be reason for encouragement, but only win win

came against a team with a winning record (San Francisco) and four

came in overtime. In other words, the Cards could have just as easily

finished 4-12.

State of the Franchise: Offense Kevin Kolb was brought in to

revive what was once one of the leagues most potent passing

offenses. But ineffectiveness and injuries limited his impact. In ninegames with Kolb at the helm, the Cardinals went 3-6, compared to a

5-2 record with second-year man John Skelton leading the way. To

be fair, three of Kolbs losses came at the hands of the Giants,

Steelers and Ravens, but it was an underwhelming debut in the

desert nonetheless.

Moving forward, Kolb is still their guy. But at the first sign of

trouble, the Cardinals will have a quarterback controversy on their

hands. After an 8-8 record, fans will expect a playoff run in 2012, and

theyll be calling for Skelton if Kolb struggles.

In his first year as the full-time starter, Beanie Wells topped the

1,000-yard mark, but still failed to live up to lofty expectations. Wells

was a physical, downhill runner during his days at Ohio state, but

hasnt been the same type of running back since entering the NFL.According to ProFootballFocus, Wells averaged just 2.6 yards after

contact per rushing attempt, well below what one would expect of a

runner his size. Ryan Williams, a 2011 2nd-round pick, missed the

entire season due to injury and will probably be given the

opportunity to compete for a starting job in 2012.

At wide receiver, Larry Fitzgerald remains among the game

elite, but his supporting cast has been disappointing. Early Douce

and Andre Roberts saw the majority of balls not thrown Fitzgera

way, but neither has proven to be a consistent threat.

The biggest issue for the Cardinals offense continues to be

offensive line. 2007 1st-round pick Levi Brown is a certifiable bus

but the Cardinals keep trotting him out there week after week.

Brown isnt the only problem though. Brandon Keith struggled o

right side and guards Daryn Colledge and Rex Hadnot are easily

replaceable veterans who should only return in a backup role. Uthis unit is fixed, its tough to imagine the Cardinals are legitimat

contenders in the playoff race, even in the shaky NFC West.

State of the Franchise: Defense The Cardinals have some

pieces to build around. Darnell Docket is signed through 2015 an

recent draft picks Dan Williams, Daryl Washington and Patrick

Peterson give the team reason to believe they can improve in 20

A complete overhaul isnt necessary, but the Cardinals do need t

upgrade a few areas. The primary concern is linebacker, where S

Acho is the only thing resembling a pass rush threat. The Cardina

struggled to pressure opposing quarterbacks in 2011, and finding

difference maker at linebacker is a must.

Depth at cornerback is also a minor concern. Patrick Peters

firmly entrenched on one side, and Richard Marshall did a nice joonce stepping into the starting lineup at midseason. However,

theyre one injury away from A.J. Jefferson or Michael Adams be

forced into a starting role.

Arizona Cardinals

GM: Rod Graves HC: Ken Whisenhunt OC: Mike Miller DC: Ray Horton

Team Needs:

1. Offensive Line This is a passing offense, built around an offensive line better suited for a power running game. No ones job is safe

but finding an upgrade over former 1st

-round pick Levi Brown is an absolute must.

2. Outside Linebacker Rookie Sam Acho was a pleasant surprise for the Cards, but theyre still lacking a legitimate pass rush threat. A

true difference-maker, as well as all-around depth, is needed.

3. Wide Receiver Larry Fitzgerald is one of the best to ever play the game, but the supporting cast around him leaves a lot to be

desired. Kevin Kolb got in trouble at times this year when trying to force the ball to Fitzgerald.

Offseason Transactions:Additions:

Losses:

2011 Draft Review

1.5 Patrick Peterson CB LSU Peterson had a rough rookie year at cornerback, allowing 5+ catches eight times. But he

made up for it with a historic performance on special teams. His future remains bright. Grade: B+

2.38 Ryan Williams RB Virginia Tech Missed entire season with knee injury, but is expected to return and compete for a

starting role in 2012. Grade: N/A3.69 Rob Housler TE Florida Atlantic - Housler saw action in eight games and was used primarily as a receiver. Hes an

athletic tight end and could be Todd Heaps eventual replacement. Grade: A-

4.103 Sam Acho LB Texas Acho barely saw the field early in the season, but worked his way into the starting line up by

Week 8. By seasons end, he was their most effective pass rusher off the edge. Grade: A

5.136 Anthony Sherman FB Connecticut The Cardinals dont use a fullback often, but when they did Sherman was their

guy. He gets the job done, but is easily replaceable. Grade: B

6.171 Quan Sturdivant LB North Carolina Spent entire season on practice squad. Grade: N/A

6.184 David Carter DT UCLA Carter was used as Dan Williams primary backup from day one and far exceeded

expectations. He could see an increased role in 2012. Grade: A

7.249 Demarco Sampson WR San Diego State Sampson was used sparingly, but saw action in nine games. Hell

compete for a roster spot in 2012. Grade: B


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Season Review 6-10 (3rd, AFC East) After a shocking 3-1

start, the Bills crumbled down the stretch. Their season was a really

tale of two offenses. After putting up 30+ points in each of their first

four wins, they were held to 11 or fewer in five of their final nine

games. This is a team searching for an identity, and desperately

hoping they have their franchise quarterback in place.

State of the Franchise: Offense Buddy Nix and Chan Gailey

bet their jobs, and essentially their careers, on Ryan Fitzpatrick when

they signed him to a six-year, $59M contract in October.According to ESPNs Total QBR, Fitzpatrick is essentially the ultimate

average quarterback. Total QBR is designed to rank a quarterbacks

total performance, with 100 being a perfect score, and 50 being

perfectly average. In 2011, Fitzpatrick ranked 18th

out of 34

qualifying quarterbacks with a score of 51.2. Additionally, over the

final seven weeks of the season, Fitzpatrick had just one game in

which his QBR eclipsed the 50-point mark.

While the Bills are all in with Fitzpatrick, they now need to

surround him with more talent. Fred Jackson emerged as a

legitimate threat at running back, but hes 31 years old and coming

off a season-ending broken leg. Jackson will likely split carries with

C.J. Spiller, who may have saved his career with his strong

performance in Jacksons absence. But 2012 will be a pivotal year.

The Bills also need to upgrade their receiving corps. One out of

every four passes was thrown Stevie Johnsons way in 2011, a

shockingly high percentage for a relatively pedestrian receiver.

Johnson is certainly a capable receiver, but hardly a game changer,

and can easily be controlled when opponents know the ball is go

his direction.

The offensive line was surprisingly solid. 2009 1st

and 2nd

-ro

picks Eric Wood and Andy Levitre anchored a dominant interior l

At left tackle Demetrius Bell continues to develop, and should re

in 2012.

State of the Franchise: Defense The Bills need to find an

identity on defense. Through his first two years at the helm, GM

Buddy Nix has been drafting for a 3-4 defense, but Chan Gainleystaff has yet to implement the scheme. The promotion of Dave

Wannstedt, who has run a 4-3 throughout his career, seems to

indicate that Nixs efforts to bring in 3-4 personnel were all for

nothing. He wasted two drafts acquiring the wrong types of play

and set the franchise back considerably.

The first order of business this offseason will be to acquire

more 4-3 personnel, especially on the defensive line. The health

Shawne Merriman is a big question mark, and Alex Carrington an

Spencer Johnson are better suited for the 3-4.

The next biggest concern is at cornerback, where 2008 1st

-

round pick Leodis McKelvin is officially a bust. He was replaced in

starting lineup by injury-prone Terrence McGee, who later gave

to rookie Aaron Williams. The Bills will likely give Williams an

opportunity to win a starting job in 2012, and Drayton Florence w

likely return as well, but the overall depth at the position needs

work.

Buffalo Bills

GM: Buddy Nix HC: Chan Gailey OC: Curtis Modkins DC: Dave Wannstedt

Team Needs:

1. Defensive End Buddy Nix has been drafting for a 3-4 defense, but the Bills run a 4-3 base and likely will continue to do so with dave

Wannstedt taking over the defensive.

2. Cornerback Drayton Florence is past his prime, Leodis McKelvin is a bust and the jury is still out on 2011 2nd

-round pick Aaron

Williams. A complete overhaul at the position isnt out of the question.

3. Wide Receiver Stevie Johnson was the Bills only consistent threat in the passing game in 2011. If theyre committed to a heavy

passing offense, they need to add more playmakers.


Losses:


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2011 Draft Review

1.3 Marcell Dareus DT Alabama Dareus started from day one and was an immediate star for the Bills. He has already

established himself as one of the top interior pass rushers in the league. Grade: A

2.34 Aaron Williams CB Texas Missed seven games due to injury, but started each of his final five games when healthy.

Struggled at times, but will enter 2012 as their projected top corner. Grade: B

3.68 Kelvin Sheppard LB LSU Buried on the depth chart and hampered by injuries, Sheppard barely saw the field until

midseason. He then started nine of the Bills final 10 games and was surprisingly effective. Grade: A-4.100 DaNorris Searcy S North Carolina Started three games in place of injured George Wilson, but rarely saw the field in

other games. Should return as a backup. Grade: B-

4.122 Chris Hairston OT Clemson Started seven games at left tackle for the injured Demetrius Bell. Struggled at times, but

could compete for starting job in 2012. Grade: B+

5.133 Johnny White RB North Carolina White had eight carries in Week 1, and just four the rest of the year. Doesnt

appear to be in their long-term plans. Grade: C

6.169 Chris White LB Mississippi State Only saw action in a handful of games on special teams. Grade: C

7.206 Justin Rogers CB Richmond Saw limited action early in season but was given an opportunity late in year. Struggled

in coverage, and may have to fight to keep his job in 2012. Grade: C

7.245 Michael Jasper OT Bethel Lost 75 pounds to trim down to 375. Spent year on practice squad. Grade: N/A


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Season Review 6-10 (3rd, NFL South) The only thing the

Panthers were concerned with this season was the development

of Cam Newton. And, fortunately for them, it well about as well as

expected. Newton adjusted to the NFL game reasonably quickly.

And even though it didnt translate to wins immediately, the team

showed some improvement down the stretch, winning four of

their final six games.

State of the Franchise: Offense Given his relative

inexperience and some character concerns, the Panthers took ahuge risk by making Cam Newton the face of their franchise. But

through one season, the decision has paid off. Now comes the

tricky part: keeping him happy.

Newton already ruffled some feathers with comments about

losing being accepted in Carolina, and about his teammates not

being on his level. If Marty Hurney doesnt fill out the supporting

cast quickly, he can expect to hear more of the same from

Newton.

The first order of business is to upgrade the receiving co

Steve Smith is coming off a Pro Bowl caliber year, but the dep

behind him is lack. Both Brandon LaFell and Legedu Naanee ha

displayed good hands and are worth keeping around, but a tru

No. 1 is needed.

The Panthers would also be wise to invest in a pass-catc

tight end. Jeremy Shockey did a nice job in his first year in

Carolina, but the 31-year-old wont be around for the long hau

The Panthers have one of the most talented offensive linin the game, but injuries have kept the unit from ever living up

its potential. Jordan Gross is entrenched at left tackle, but it m

be time to start worrying about Jeff Otahs future on the right

side. Hes missed at least three games in each of his three sea

in the league, including the 12 games this past year with a kne

injury.

State of the Franchise: Defense

Carolina Panthers

GM: Marty Hurney HC: Ron Rivera OC: Rob Chudzinski DC: Sean McDermott

Team Needs:

1. Defensive Tackle The Panthers invested two picks in defensive tackles last year, but they need to go back to the well. They ranked

25th

in rushing defense, giving up 4.6 yards per carry.

2. Wide Receiver Steve Smith revived his career, but the 32-year-old wont be around much longer. Brandon LaFell has shown some

potential, but hes a 2nd

or 3rd

option at best.

3. Safety For the second straight year the Panthers stuck with Sherrod Martin and Charles Godfrey, and once again they got burned.

Its time to wipe the slate clear and start over.


Losses:

2011 Draft Review

1.3 Cam Newton QB - Auburn Marty Hurney and Ron Rivera took a risk with Newton, essentially staking their

reputation on his career. But so far its paid huge dividends. Grade: A

3.65 Terrell McClain DT South Florida McClain was thrust into a starting role from day one, but is probably better

suited as a situational interior pass rusher. Grade: C-3.97 Sione Fua DT- Stanford Fua started 11 games at nose tackle before a season-ending injury and was generally

effective, especially against the run. Grade: B

4.98 Brandon Hogan CB West Virginia Hogan missed much of the season with a torn ACL suffered in college. He

appeared in their final three games, and managed to not get arrested (yet), so thats a win. Grade: N/A

5.132 Kealoha Pilares WR Hawaii Returned 23 kicks for a 25.8 average. Did not see time at receiver and will have to

compete for his roster spot in 2012. Grade: C

6.166 Lawrence Wilson LB Connecticut Spent time on practice squad before being arrested for marijuana possession in

November and was subsequently released. Grade: F

6.203 Zack Williams C Washington State Missed entire season with ACL injury. Grade: N/A

7.244 Lee Ziemba OT Auburn Appeared in just three games, lining up at right tackle for a handful of snaps. Grade: C


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1. Andrew Luck Stanford Ht: 64 Wt: 235

Pros - Has all the physical tools necessary to excel at the next level. Prototypical size for a true pocket passer. Does a great job standing

in the pocket and reading the field. Very patient for a college quarterback. Has the arm strength to make all the necessary throws. Best

attribute may be his touch; knows just how much to put on each throw; throws a very catchable ball. Accuracy is already on an elite NF

level and should allow for a smooth transition to the next level. Decent mobility, especially considering his size; a threat to pick up yard

on the ground. Above-average intelligence on and off the field; a hard worker. A true team leader on and off the field; respected by

teammates and coaches.

Cons - Suffered a broken finger in 2009. Overaggressive with the ball at times; will need to learn to throw it away more often at the ne

level.

Comments - There is very little to criticize about Lucks game. He is as polished as any prospect not just quarterbacks to enter the

draft in at least a decade. As with any quarterback there will likely be a learning curve once he enters the league, but he has all the too

both mental and physical to be the face of a franchise for the next 10+ years. Any team with the slightest concern about their long-

term future at quarterback needs to consider making a run at Luck.

2012 Quarterbacks

Documents

2012 Draft Guide - Editing