2017 Current Market Outlook Title Here - · PDF file2017 Current Market Outlook Product strategy. ... 2017 global market expectations ... Med/Lg pax widebody 8% 2,370 29,530

Copyright © 2017 Boeing. All rights reserved.

Title Here2017 Current Market Outlook Randy Tinseth

Vice President, MarketingBoeing Commercial AirplanesJune 20, 2017

The statements contained herein are based on good faith assumptions are to be used for general information purposes only.

These statements do not constitute an offer, promise, warranty or guarantee of performance.


Agenda

Market performance, expectations

2017 Current Market Outlook

Product strategy


-2%

0%

2%

4%

6%

8%

10%

12%

14%

16%

18%

20%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Cargo growth rates (RTKs)

$0

$5

$10

$15

$20

$25

$30

$35

$40

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Net profit (billions)

0%

1%

2%

3%

4%

5%

6%

7%

8%

9%

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016

Traffic growth rates (RPKs)

Market is growing, customers are profitable

SOURCE: ICAO / IATA


Industry-leading delivery performance

462 477

601

648

723762 748

0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

800

900

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016


2017 global market expectations

Cargo traffic growth Airline profitsPassenger traffic growth

SOURCE: Boeing estimates for growth, IATA forecast for airline profits


Headwinds in the market

Economic Geopolitical

Wide

economic

growth

variation

Volatile

exchange

rates

Trade / air

cargo

Populism

Increased

geopolitical

uncertainty

Terrorism

frequency,

breadth

BREXIT

£

$ $$

$

North

America


What’s in the Current Market Outlook (CMO)?

20-year forecast • Traffic

• Product

All jets >30 seats• No turbo props

• No biz jets

• No military

All flights • Scheduled

• Nonscheduled

Freighters


1997 Boeing CMO analysis results

NOTE: Fleet consists of all jet aircraft with at least 90 seats

0

4,000

8,000

12,000

16,000

20,000

1997-2016

Actual deliveries


1997 Boeing CMO analysis results

0%

10%

20%

30%

40%

50%

60%

70%

80%

90%

100%

ActualDeliveries

(1997-2016)

CMO1997

GMF1997

SA

SMWB

LGWB


Market forecast drivers and considerations

Economic growth

Competitive landscape

Airportinfrastructure

Environmental regulations

Airline strategies &

business models

Fuelprice

Emerging markets

Market liberalization

Airplane capabilities


0.0

1.0

2.0

3.0

4.0

5.0

6.0

7.0

8.0

1980

1981

1982

1983

1984

1985

1986

1987

1988

1989

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

2003

2004

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

2013

2014

2015

2016E

Resilient, growing market expected to continue

SOURCE: ICAO scheduled traffic / 2016E IATA December 2016, RPKs = Revenue Passenger Kilometers

RP

Ks (

trill

ion

s)

5% long-term growth rate


20-year forecast: continued long-term growthAverage annual growth

2.8%

4.0%

4.7%

4.2%

Worldeconomy

(GDP)

Passengertraffic

(RPK)

Cargotraffic(RTK)

Numberof airlinepassengers


0 500 1,000 1,500 2,000 2,500 3,000 3,500

Within Asia*

Within China

Within North America

Within Europe

Middle East - Asia

Europe - Asia

North Atlantic

Within Latin America

North America - Latin America

Transpacific

Within/to CIS

Europe - Latin America

Africa - Europe

Air travel growth varies by marketRPKs, billions

*Does NOT include travel within China

2016 traffic Added traffic 2017-2036 Annual growth %

Worldtraffic growth:

WorldGDP growth:

4.7%

2.8%

4.7%

5.7%

4.3%

6.1%

3.2%

6.4%

6.2%

5.6%

3.7%

4.5%

4.5%

2.9%

2.6%


Airlines will need 41,030 new airplanes valued at $6.1 trillion

Airplane deliveries: 41,0302017 - 2036

Market value: $6,050 billion2017 - 2036

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

Regional jets6%

Single-aisle72%

Small paxwidebody

12%

Freighters

2%

Med/Lg paxwidebody

8%

2,370

29,530

5,050

9203,160

0

500

1,000

1,500

2,000

2,500

3,000

3,500

Regional jets2%

Single-aisle53%

Small paxwidebody

22%

Freighters

4%

Med/Lg paxwidebody

19%

$110B

$3,180B

$1,340B

$260B

$1,160B


Global fleet will double

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

30,000

35,000

40,000

45,000

50,000

2016 2036

5,920

Retained fleet

17,560

Replacement

43%

23,470

Growth

57%

23,480

41,030

46,950

Units


Market for new airplanes to become even more geographically balanced

Market value by region2017 - 2036

41%

19%

12%

6%2%

3%

17%

$6.1T

Asia 2,500

North America 1,040

Europe 1,110

Middle East 730

Latin America 350

C.I.S. 140

Africa 180

World Total $6,050B

Region $Billions

New airplane deliveries by region2017 - 2036

39%

19%

8%

7%3%

3%

21%

41,030

Asia 16,050

North America 8,640

Europe 7,530

Middle East 3,350

Latin America 3,010

C.I.S. 1,230

Africa 1,220

World Total 41,030

Region Airplanes


Future new freighter deliveries will be led by demand for large widebodies

0

50

100

150

200

New freighter deliveries: 9202017 - 2036

Market value: $260 billion2017 - 2036

0

100

200

300

400

500

600490

430

0

$170B

$90B

$0BMedium

40-80 tonnes

47%

Standard<45 tonnes

Large>80 tonnes

53%

Medium 40-80 tonnes

35%

Standard<45 tonnes

Large>80 tonnes

65%


Commercial aviation will demand $8.5 trillion in services over 20 years

38%

21%

21%

9%

6%3%

2%

Commercial Aviation Services: $8.5T2017 - 2036

Services by region2017 - 2036

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

Corporate & External

3.0%

Marketing& Planning

4.6%

FlightOps4.1%

Ground, &Cargo Ops

4.1%

Maintenance& Engineering

4.0%

$125B$450B

$1,140B

$4,300B

$2,110B

$8.5T

CAGR

Asia 3,200 5.3%

North America 1,775 3.1%

Europe 1,765 2.8%

Middle East 730 5.0%

Latin America 530 5.0%

CIS 250 3.9%

Africa 210 5.3%

World Total $8,460 4.0%

Region Services | CAGR


Superior market coverage, exceptional value

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2017 Current Market Outlook Title Here - · PDF file2017 Current Market Outlook Product strategy. ... 2017 global market expectations ... Med/Lg pax widebody 8% 2,370 29,530