Al-Qaida chief Ayman al-Zawahiri The Coordinator 2016 Part 4-1-Iran-18

C de Waart; CdW Intelligence to Rent [email protected] In Confidence

Al-Qaida chief Ayman al-Zawahiri The Coordinator 2016 Part 4-1-Iran-18

The west can choose a dangerous push for a settlement now, or a tepid continuation of a policy that promises a longer war and strategic failure in the region – while hundreds of thousands of desperate people wait at Europe’s doorstep.

Feb 17, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu said Moscow and Tehran were ready to step up their military cooperation after meeting with his Iranian counterpart on Tuesday. “I am convinced that our meeting is going to contribute toward reinforcing friendly relations between Russian and Iranian armed forces,” said Shoigu in a statement.Iran’s Hossein Dehghan and Shoigu spoke about “the necessary measures for the progressive development” of their military cooperation, based on the accord signed in January between Tehran and Moscow, the statement said. The two countries are also “ready to coordinate their approaches on a large number of global and regional issues”, Shoigu added, speaking in the “context of the growing crisis in the Middle East.

Confirmed: Iran and Russia to Co-Produce Su-30 Fighter JetIran’s defense minister revealed that Tehran is set to receive the Su-30 fighter jet at an undisclosed future date.By Franz-Stefan Gady February 14, 2016During a recent television interview, Iran’s Defense Minister, General Hossein Dehqhan, announced that Iran will sign a contract with Russia for the co-production of an undisclosed number of Russian-made Sukhoi Su-30 multirole fighter aircraft, Fars News Agency reports. Should the deal go through, Iran will be the second country in the world after India to produce a variation of the Su-30 fighter jet locally. However, as of now, it still remains unclear in what capacity Tehran will be involved in the aircraft production process.According to a source within Iran’s Defense Ministry interviewed by Sputnik News, a contract could be signed as early as February 16, when the Iranian defense minister will arrive in Moscow to discuss the deliveries of S-300 air defense systems and the Sukhoi Su-30 aircraft. “Minister Dehgan is taking a number of the Defense Ministry’s representatives to the Russian capital to meet with their Russian colleagues and other highly-ranked officials,” the source notes.“The last stages will be discussed of delivering Iran the S-300 complex, the first part of which should arrive before the end of next month, and the second by the end of June. Minister Dehqwan will also discuss the delivery of Su-30 airplanes because the Defense Ministry believes the Iranian Air Force needs this type of plane. We’ve moved far in these discussions of purchases and I think that during the upcoming visit a contract will be signed,” according to the source.First rumors about a likely Iranian-Russian Su-30 deal emerged already in the summer of 2015 during the MAKS airshow, held near Moscow. “We are discussing the purchase of Sukhoi fighter planes,” Dehqhan told Iran’s Press TV back then. However, Iran’s Vice-President for Science and Technology Affairs, Sorena Sattari, who was also present during the discussions, downplayed the talks at the time: “We spoke about it but we didn’t discuss purchasing them and talks were mostly focused on the technological issues.”As I explained previously (See: “Will Iran License-Build Russia’s T-90S Main Battle Tank?”): Under the so-called Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCOP), an international agreement on the nuclear program of Iran signed in July 2015, the UN arms embargo will be lifted 5 years after the JCOP adoption day. However, conventional

The farther back you can look, the farther forward you are likely to see.–Winston Churchill

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weapons sales can be decided on a case-by-case basis meanwhile. “During the five years arms deliveries to Iran would be possible if they clear a notification and verification process in the UN Security Council,” according to Russia’s Foreign Minister, Sergei Lavrov.It is unclear what variant of the Sukhoi Su-30 Iran is interested in, nor how many aircraft it wants to procure and within what timeframe. During his recent television interview, General Hossein Dehqhan, also rejected the idea of procuring Chengdu J-10 lightweight multirole fighter aircraft from China.

'Special messages' aside, Iran's S-300 missiles still up in air

Iran’s FM Spokesperson Jaberi Ansari in a Feb. 22 presser announced that Iran and Russia are negotiating on next-generation of S300 air defense missile system, adding the details will be announced to the public in due time. The $800-million contract to deliver S-300 to Iran was cancelled in 2010 by then Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, falling in line with the UN sanctions imposed on Iran due to its disputed nuclear program. In turn, Tehran filed a currently pending $4 billion lawsuit against Russia in Geneva's arbitration court. However, Russia President Vladimir Putin signed a decree to lift the ban over delivering the long-overdue missile system to Iran in April 2015.

TEHRAN, Iran — Prior to his recent trip to Russia, Iran's Defense Minister Brig. Gen. Hossein Dehghan announced that he will discuss the long-stalled transfer of the S-300 air defense system as well as the possibility of reaching an agreement on the purchase of multirole Sukhoi Su-30 fighter jets. While in Moscow, he met with senior Russian officials, including his counterpart, Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu, and President Vladimir Putin. After the Feb. 16 visit, Russian media outlets reported that the first batch of S-300 missiles had been shipped Feb. 17 via the Caspian Sea, from Astrakhan in Russia to Bandar-e Anzali in Iran, and had officially been delivered in the presence of Dehghan himself. Sputnik News Agency quoted Russian sources on the latter and later published an interview with Deputy Chief of Staff of the Iranian Armed Forces Maj. Gen. Mostafa Izadi, in which Izadi confirmed that Russia has indeed delivered the first shipment of the missiles.





However, in spite of widespread expectations in Iran that Russia would take the first step toward implementing the S-300 deal, in order to rebuild trust, the Putin’s spokesperson suddenly announced that the missiles will not be delivered since Iran has not yet paid for them. The Russian reasoning was that it is therefore too soon to deliver the missiles. Although the reasons for Moscow’s sudden turnaround are not wholly clear, it can be argued that it has further increased Iranian distrust of the Russians.In regard to the possibility of Iran buying new fighter jets from Russia, Dehghan announced, “We know how many Sukhoi Su-30 fighters we are planning to buy. However, for now, we shall not announce the number.” Previously, some sources had mentioned the possibility of Iran buying Chinese J-10 fighters or French Mirage fighters. However, both of these possibilities were denied by Iranian military officials. Indeed, in a recent interview, Dehghan noted, “I have seen these fighters myself, but we are not planning to purchase the Chinese fighters.”Some Russian reports suggest that Tehran is likely to sign an $8 billion contract with Moscow for the purchase of military equipment. If this is true, the question is which kind of changes to Iran’s military capabilities the procurement of Sukhoi Su-30 fighters and the S-300 air defense system will bring about. What are the advantages of these weapons systems compared to those used by Iran’s regional rivals? Will purchasing military equipment from Russia enable Iran to fill the gap in its capabilities compared to rivals such as Israel, Turkey and some Arab states?Following the 1979 Islamic Revolution, sanctions were imposed on the Iranian air force. The Islamic Republic was thus only able to purchase a limited number of J-7 fighters, MiG-29, Sukhoi-24 and Sukhoi-25 for the Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps Aerospace Forces. Consequently, the backbone of the Iranian air force is made up of old American fighters such as Phantoms, Tigers and Tomcats. Meanwhile, Iran’s regional rivals have rapidly developed their air forces, with all of them currently in possession of advanced fighters such as the F-15, F-16, F-18, Eurofighter Typhoon and Rafale. These countries are additionally slated to be equipped with the fifth-generation F-35 fighter over the course of the next decade. A mere cursory glance at electronic war capabilities, active phased array radars, armament systems, maneuverability, endurance and radar cross sections shows that the Sukhoi Su-30 is not capable of successfully confronting the aforementioned Western warplanes in a heavy aerial battle.Admittedly, compared to the Western fighter jets, the Sukhoi Su-30 has two relative advantages; namely, a long-range high-resolution radar and animated engine output, which helps its high agility. However, in other areas, and especially considering the weaknesses of Russian-made electronic armor and its very large radar cross section, Sukhoi fighters won’t stand much of a chance against highly advanced radar and anti-radar systems or fourth and fifth generation fighters, many of which are currently in operation in the region. Nonetheless, the S-300 air defense system is still capable of dealing with rather advanced fighters, and it can partly compensate for weaknesses in Iran’s defenses.In terms of offensive capabilities, Iran is facing serious technological problems. In this vein, Russian failures in post-sale services and upgrade operations should also be added to the list of problems. For instance, the Iranians continue to face plenty of issues with the repair and maintenance of their Sukhoi-24 and MiG-29 fighters.President Hassan Rouhani’s administration is aware of these problems and is looking for an alternative to buying military equipment from Russia. Some rumors in Tehran have it that Iran is desperately trying to gain access to the technology necessary for designing and manufacturing these advanced fighters on its own. Perhaps the Russians have gotten the point, as soon after Dehghan’s return from Moscow, Shoigu appeared in Tehran on an





“unexpected” visit. Reports say the Russian official brought a “special message” from Putin to Rouhani and discussed Syria as well as bilateral matters.If anything, it seems as if Moscow is seeking to keep Tehran as a customer by resorting to engaging in symbolic measures. For instance, while failing to live up to his commitment to deliver the S-300 missiles, Putin is, through measures such as personally bringing a special gift to Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei and dispatching an envoy to Tehran with a special message, trying to tell the Islamic Republic that he is a strategic ally of Iran. This is while the Rouhani administration is becoming increasingly pessimistic about Putin’s measures because of his failure to live up to his commitments.Indeed, Iran has expressed a desire to forge constructive cooperation with any country, and especially those of the West. In this vein, if the sanctions on arms deals are lifted as scheduled in the next five years, Iran will more than likely look to expand research and development cooperation with international companies in order to obtain the technology necessary for designing advanced fighters that are capable of dealing with threats to Iran. The fact that the Iranians continue to buy equipment from Russia, while fully aware of the problems it entails, only goes to show that Western countries remain reluctant to sell conventional military equipment to Iran. Ultimately, the outcome of the latter is that the Russians are bound to generate tens of billions of dollars in arms sales while their Western rivals will be deprived from such revenues.

Dec 7, The lifting of international economic sanctions on Iran could bring Russia billions in weapons contracts, the Russian president’s top aide for military-industrial cooperation has said. “When all the restrictions are removed and all the sanctions are lifted we will have quite a serious development in the field of military-industrial cooperation. It is already taking place in fields that are not covered by sanctions, and in future we are expecting to enter very large projects,” Vladimir Kozhin said in an interview with Izvestia daily. The official added that Iran has shown great interest in cooperation with Russian weapons companies because practically all of its military forces require a major overhaul.“Considering the fact that this is a large country with large military forces, we are talking very big contracts, worth billions,” Kozhin noted. Ruslan Pukhov, head of Russia’s Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies, agreed that the lifting of sanctions would make Iran an extremely lucrative market for Russian arms producers. “In short, Iran needs everything. But the remaining 5-year embargo affects the priorities. They will purchase non-combat systems, systems for the suppression of electronic communications, unmanned aircraft, reconnaissance and communication devices,” the analyst said.

YEKATERINBURG, November 25. /TASS/. Iran is interested in getting all types of Russian weapons, not only the S-300 anti-aircraft missile defense systems, Russian presidential aide for military-technical cooperation Vladimir Kozhin told reporters."The Iranian side is very interested in military-technical cooperation. So far we have signed a contract that has been announced (on the delivery of the S-300 system). They are interested in the whole range of our weapons, because they have a big army, but due to the sanctions they have not had any upgrading for a very long period: in the air forces, navy and ground troops. In general, in a broad range," the Kremlin official told TASS

Iran's military bulks up with new Russian tanksTEHRAN, Iran – On Dec. 8, the commander of the Iranian army's ground forces, Brig. Gen. Ahmad Reza Pourdastan, announced that the Islamic Republic’s “ties with Russia in





the field of equipment supply are established. Our first contract was for the S-300 missile system and now we have on our agenda the purchase of T-90 tanks. God willing, our experts will go on a trip to Russia to sign the related contracts with the Russians. However, no such contract has been signed yet.” Following the signing of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA) in Vienna earlier this year, Iran’s military became hopeful that its might would increase. This was mainly because the P5+1 group of countries (Russia, China, France, Britain and the United States plus Germany) had pledged under the JCPOA to lift the UN heavy arms embargo against Iran within the next five years, in return for Tehran showing goodwill and abiding by its commitments.The first branch of Iran’s military to pursue the idea of expansion through the purchase of heavy equipment was the air force, which has already held negotiations with the Russians and the Chinese.Indeed, the widespread attrition and deterioration of air force equipment has prompted the Iranian public to view the air force as antiquated. However, in reality, the country’s ground forces are suffering from more complex and deeper problems in terms of hardware.Prior to the 1979 Islamic Revolution, Iranian armor was considered to possess a higher operational capacity compared to those of the country’s regional rivals. Following the Islamic Revolution and the ensuing 1980-1988 war with Iraq, a great portion of this armor was lost. The international restrictions placed on Iran after the eight-year war with Iraq worsened the situation, making it difficult for the country to quickly upgrade its military technology to an acceptable level.In recent years, Iran has made numerous attempts to become self-sufficient in the production of armored equipment — none of which have been very successful. This is while countries such as Turkey, Israel, Egypt and Pakistan have succeeded in designing and producing a large part of their modern armored capabilities.Over the years, Iran has adopted several approaches in order to expand its armored capabilities.The first approach was to purchase weapons. During and after its war with Iraq, Iran tried to supply some of its armor needs from abroad. Turning to China and Russia, it bought a number of T-59 and T-72Z tanks, respectively. However, the T-59 is in no way suitable for today’s battlefields, while its Iranian upgrade, the T-72Z, is very similar to the T-72 seen in the army of former Iraqi dictator Saddam Hussein. Upon careful consideration of these models’ specifications, it is apparent that the weakest and most inefficient versions of this tank are those produced in Russia.The second approach was to assemble existing tanks. After making the purchases mentioned above, Iran sought to assemble T-55 and T-72 tanks on its own. The quality of these tanks is not clear, nor are there any reports available on their performance in the battlefield during the war with Iraq. However, what is crystal clear is that these tanks are inferior compared to those found in Israel, Turkey and the Arab armies.The third approach was to upgrade older tanks. Iran has many old tanks in its arsenal, including the M-48, the M-60, the Scorpion and the Chieftain. Over the years, it has tried to upgrade a number of these vehicles and reintroduce them into its service under new names. Some of these tanks are from the post-World War II era, while the newest ones are from the 1970s. In fact, many are reminiscent of the arsenals employed during the Arab-Israeli wars, the Vietnam War or the Korean War. Other armies, such as those of Turkey,





Egypt, Saudi Arabia and Israel, have also attempted to upgrade tanks such as the M-60. However, the upgrades Iran made to these tanks are nowhere close to as significant as the upgrades carried out by the Islamic Republic’s regional rivals.The fourth approach was to produce domestically made tanks. Iran has heavily invested in the production of Zulfiqar tanks. Local arms factories have been engaged in this project for more than two decades. Yet it was only last year that Iranian state television aired footage of the tank firing a shell. The Zulfiqar is the result of a combination of somewhat old Russian, Chinese and Brazilian technology. Its specifications and efficiency are not clear. Moreover, Iran has not been able to achieve the level of mass production necessary to replace existing models.Having experienced these disappointments, Iran’s armed forces is now seriously seeking to purchase tanks suitable for today’s battlefields. In this vein, there are three reasons in particular behind why it has decided to buy T-90 tanks. First, they are cheaper compared to today’s more modern tanks. Second, they have greater capabilities compared to the tanks that are already present in the Iranian military. Third, Western countries are reluctant to sell more advanced models to Iran.Compared to the existing tanks in Iran’s arsenal, the T-90 is more advanced in terms of its penetration capacity, fire power, navigation technology, fire control and guidance system, maneuverability, and sophisticated electronics. However, keep in mind that any type of weaponry is bought or produced with the intention of being prepared for a time of war. Today, the armies of Iran’s regional rivals are in possession of much more advanced and efficient tanks. Israel, for instance, has the Merkava IV, Turkey has the Leopard and Altay, the United Arab Emirates has Leclerc and Saudi Arabia has the Abrams and will have Leopard 2A7 in the near future. Moreover, Egypt also has Abrams, while Jordan and Oman have the Challenger 2. In terms of technical specifications, such as armor penetration, firing precision, engine technology, armor technology, protection level, heating systems, infrared and navigation, these tanks are all significantly more advanced than the T-90. Furthermore, in terms of anti-tank weapons, there are the TOW, Javelin, MILAN and other Western-made anti-armor weapon systems that can easily target T-90 tanks. In fact, the T-90 is an upgraded version of the T-72 — and has thus inherited all of its weak, and strong, points. T-72 tanks were easily blown to pieces during the first 1990-91 Persian Gulf War, in the face of Abrams tanks operated by the US military.The weak state of Iran’s heavy armor justifies the need to add more modernized tanks. Indeed, this is the first impression upon hearing news of Iran’s planned arms purchases. However, these purchases will be intensively questioned in face of the increasing daily power and advancement of other regional armies and the possible scenarios of conflict. Iran is likely to allocate $3-$5 billion to the purchase of tanks . In a hypothetical conflict situation, these tanks could have to face off against 800 Saudi Leopards along with thousands of Abrams, Challengers, Leclercs and Merkava tanks from Israel and Arab countries. If this occurs, the outcome can easily be predicted.Hence, some figures inside Iran are looking at the arms purchases of regional countries and comparing the technical specifications of those countries’ current and future artillery with the options available to Iran. Given the current situation, these individuals believe that purchases of T-90 tanks will only result in the destruction of the country’s national wealth — as evidenced in the case of Saddam and his huge army.

Iran Defense Spending: Tehran Wants Russian Weapons Including T-90 Tank And Attack HelicoptersBY CHRISTOPHER HARRESS @CHARRESS ON 12/16/15





The Iranian military wants to buy the advanced, fifth-generation Russian T-90 battle tank, along with a range of other major defense items, the country's top ground commander said Wednesday. Brig. Gen. Ahmad Reza Pourdastan mentioned the potential purchases during a defense conference in the Khorasan region of northern Iran, also saying that he had made an official request for new weapons to the country's top military generals. "The talks with representatives of the Russian side have been held, and the corresponding proposal on the purchase of T-90 tanks has been transferred to the General Staff of the Islamic Republic’s Armed Forces," according to a report Wednesday by Russian state news agency Tass. The question of possible Iranian arms deals had been a significant talking point of late, with regional rivals concerned that sanctions relief resulting from the Iranian nuclear deal would see Tehran add as much as $150 billion to its budget. The money is primarily from international oil deals that Iran couldn't access as a result of strict financial sanctions against it. Now rivals such as Israel and Saudi Arabia believe that the money will strengthen Iran's military and its already significant grasp on the Middle East. “This deal will bring war,” Israeli Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu warned during conference in August, according to a BBC report. “It will spark a nuclear arms race in the region. And it would feed Iran’s terrorism and aggression that would make war — perhaps the most horrific war of all — far more likely.”Pourdastan also said during the conference that the military needs helicopters, heavy weaponry and advanced combat equipment. While the new requests undermine Iran's own defense industry, the ground forces commander said that the country's military industrial complex will continue to develop. "The Iranian defense industry has strong potential. Nevertheless, we will constantly take care of modernizing it," he said.

Regards Cees ***Commenting on the news that Iran is considering the purchase of an unknown quantity of Russian-made T-90 main battle tanks, Iranian political scientist and military expert Abouzar Bagheri shared with Sputnik his insights into what the purchase would mean for Iran's military potential, and for the Iranian-Russian military partnership as a whole.

On Tuesday, Iranian Army Ground Forces Commander Ahmad Reza Pourdastan told Iranian media that Tehran's military cooperation with Moscow is going ahead smoothly, and that in addition to the recently renewed contract to deliver the S-300 anti-aircraft missile system, the purchase of the T-90 main battle tank is on the agenda."Our military cooperation with Moscow has been strengthened; we have signed the first contract for the purchase of the S-300," the general noted, according to the Tasnim News Agency. "Relatedly, the purchase of the T-90 tank is on the agenda. We are hoping that the





relevant contracts will be concluded, and that our experts will be able to travel to Russia to gain experience in the operation of this modern piece of machinery."

Five Russia-Made Weapons Iran Would Love to Have, as Seen by US MediaThe T-90, adopted by the Russian Armed Forces in the mid-1990s and facing several waves of modernization since then, has been quite popular on the global weapons market, particularly among the countries of Azerbaijan, Algeria and India (the latter now has over 850 T-90s). Late last month, reports surfaced that the Syrian Army's 4th Mechanized division deployed several T-90s.Military cooperation between Moscow and Tehran became possible again after Iran reached an agreement on its nuclear program with the P5+1 group of international mediators in July. According to the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA), signed in Vienna on July 14, in addition to sanctions relating to ballistic missile technologies, which will remain in place for eight years, sanctions on the sale of conventional weapons would stay in place for five years.Nevertheless, General Pourdastan is convinced that given the growing threat of terrorism in the region, questions of self-defense and the strengthening of the country's military potential should not be unnecessarily constrained to the JCPOA. The general emphasized that Tehran would "use all available means" to defend itself from the threat of terror.

What does this mean as far as Iran's desire to purchase the Russian main battle tank? Speaking to Sputnik Persian, Abouzar Bagheri, political scientist and military expert, emphasized that all countries have the right to find ways to defend themselves."Iran has held negotiations with Russia on military

cooperation for a long time, in particular, on the purchase of the S-300. One way or another, every country has the legitimate right to strengthen and expand its military-defense complex, in order to defend its territory in case of a potential threat, and Iran is no exception," the expert noted."The JCPOA," Bagheri noted, "together with instructions from the US that Iran does not have the right to conduct missile tests or purchase offensive weapons or to use them, truly has limited Iran's right to do so. However, as stated by the country's Supreme Leader Ayatollah Khamenei, we must strengthen our military defensive complex, and this is not connected to the JCPOA, because Iran came to an agreement with the P5+1 on the use of the atom, not on our defense and missile potential.""It is for this reason," the analyst suggested, " that General Pourdastan raised the issue of expanding the military potential our Iran's ground forces, notably via [the creation of a new] tank battalion, before the country's parliament."

Float Like a Butterfly, Sting Like a Bee: Russian Tank Performs ‘Aerobatics’ (VIDEO)According to Bagheri, "Tehran sees the purchase of modern tanks from Russia as part





of the need to strengthen its defense industry. And, given the threats which exist in the region, Iran will certainly be using all its military potential to ensure the security of our country and neighboring countries."

Ultimately, the expert believes that the signing of military and military technical cooperation agreements with Tehran is an indication that Moscow is moving from a relationship of partner to one of strategic ally to Iran in the region. For its part, by expanding its defense potential, Iran is strengthening its capacity not only to defend itself, but to conduct joint operations with Russia in the common war against terrorism."Iran has said repeatedly that it would seek to defend not only its national interests…but also the oppressed peoples of the region," the Bagheri emphasized. "Today, our military instructors and advisors are present in Syria and Iraq, and help the people and governments of these countries in the war against terrorism. Iran, in close cooperation with its allies – Lebanon's Hazbollah and Russia, renders all possible assistance to the peoples of these countries."

Russia Expects Military Contracts With Iran to Be Worth ‘Billions’In this connection, "if the situation in the region continues to deteriorate, and third countries seek to strengthen their imperial influence or to interfere in the internal affairs of other countries…we cannot just leave this state of affairs at is, and will use all our capabilities and potential. Firstly, it is necessary to use diplomacy, in order to stabilize the situation while avoiding a military confrontation. In order areas, Iran will act decisively and will help their allies…And of course, if someone among the imperial powers were to seek to disrupt the stability and security which we are trying to safeguard, Iran will act decisively to protect the interests and territorial integrity of our allies militarily."

James Jeffrey, former U.S. ambassador to Iraq, made a provocative assertion Tuesday when he said the burgeoning alliance between Iran, Russia and Syria is the primary problem facing the Middle East today.Speaking during a panel discussion for the launch of the Atlantic Council’s new Task Force on the Future of Iraq, Jeffrey, who served as ambassador from 2010 – 2012, said that Iraq has actually been relatively successful compared to the rest of the region, but warned of a worrisome trend he had seen recently.“We have an Iran, Syria, Russia problem right now in the Middle East, that is the number one problem in the whole region,” said Jeffrey, “considering we also have ISIS, that’s saying a lot.”Bold a conclusion as it may be, ISIS has been at least slightly rolled back in Iraq by the U.S.-led coalition in Operation Inherent Resolve. The town of Ramadi, less than 100 miles from the capital of Baghdad, was retaken in early January. Significant damage has also been done to ISIS oil market, a prime financial source for the terrorist group. Coalition air





strikes against ISIS cash reserves have cut hundreds of millions of dollars out of the ISIS treasury.

Regards Cees***

If the Syria ceasefire fails, Isis will be the least of the west’s problemsMichael ClarkeMonday 15 February 2016 19.26 GMTLast modified on Friday 19 February 2016 10.37 GMT

The military campaign against Islamic State is being reduced to a vicious sideshow as the Syrian civil war enters a new make-or-break phase. Russian military involvement has been a game-changer – saving Bashar al-Assad’s forces from near collapse, blatantly attacking western-backed opposition forces, and supplying T-90 tanks to Assad’s army closing in on Aleppo. For the western allies, time is running out. The agenda is being shaped by Russia, Assad and Iran, which have formed a de facto alliance to maintain the old Syria and – despite the supposed ceasefire agreed by the big powers in Munich last Friday – are not dissuaded by the death and destruction involved.

The Syrian Centre for Policy Research estimates that Syrian war deaths are now more than 400,000. Over half Syria’s 22 million citizens are internal or international refugees. The civil war, not the Isis phenomenon, is responsible for about 90% of these deaths and displacements, and the attacks of Assad forces are believed to be responsible for over three-quarters of them. Today came news of air strikes on a Médecins Sans Frontières hospital that the organisation blamed on Syrian government or Russian forces.The accord in Munich was to impose a “cessation of hostilities” on the warring parties within a week. The Russians warned darkly that a third world war would be inevitable if nothing was done. The Saudis warned, less credibly, that they were ready to intervene on the ground in Syria.But in reality the Russians think they need just a few more weeks to wipe out the anti-Assad opposition, and the ceasefire they urge cannot take effect soon enough to prevent that. The Saudis, more concerned with their failing war in Yemen, know they cannot tip the balance against the Russia-Assad-Iran axis. The US, the Europeans and the UN can only hope that they can this week firm up ceasefire arrangements – at least to create a process that might help them navigate out of the mess. The trick will be to convince the Russians that they have more to gain from an immediate ceasefire than plunging forward.The alternative would be to accept that Assad and his backers in Moscow and Tehran will emerge as winners from this civil war – and then deal with Isis in Syria, while western forces crush the movement in Iraq and elsewhere. But this would be paying a high political price. Western policy across the Middle East, and elsewhere, would be severely undermined, and an Assad victory would be unlikely to bring even a sullen peace to Syria.Britain’s involvement in the region to counter the Isis phenomenon in 2014 was understandable and not necessarily wrong. David Cameron is right to say the campaign against Isis is making progress.For all its barbaric videos and apocalyptic boasting the group is under pressure. There have been no easy victories since it moved into undefended Palmyra in May last year. It is losing ground to Kurdish forces in Iraq and Syria. The battle of Mosul, the centre of Isis in Iraq, is not far away. It is being dislodged from its siege of Deir ez-Zor in Syria, and Kurdish forces are moving closer to the Isis “capital” in Raqqa. The economic





infrastructure that Isis has created is being dismantled: last month the group halved the salaries of its mujahideen, and it is becoming paranoid about spies and traitors.But none of this means that Isis will be decisively beaten any time soon. Until someone other than badly supplied Kurdish forces is prepared to go toe-to-toe against Isis fighters, the group will retain control over some territory, people, hostages and slaves, alongside grudging, residual loyalty from Sunnis in the region.Even if Isis is being contained by western military action and undermined by its own weaknesses, we are now faced by some stark realities.

First, Isis is not the crisis. It is a symptom of a civil war within Islam in the Middle East, between Shias and Sunnis, and between mainstream and extremist Sunni sympathies.Second, the conflict of which Isis is only a symptom is the struggle between Iran and Saudi Arabia for dominance. It may be defined by religion, but this struggle is essentially about the unstoppable political ambitions of the two most significant regional powers.Third, Barack Obama’s uncertain international leadership and the reappearance of Russia as a big player in the region has made it, once again, an arena for proxy wars. The Russians genuinely fear the contagion of Middle Eastern terrorism within their own Muslim communities and would rather have nasty governments than nasty non-state groups to deal with. The US genuinely fears that its ability to stabilise the region and maintain its credibility with regional allies the world over will be fatally weakened if it walks away.As a junior partner to the US, Britain can live with the containment of Isis and deal with the terrorist challenges as they arise. But an uncontrolled flow of refugees into Europe is a different problem, as is the humanitarian crisis. Britain could make common political cause with Germany to push for a more coherent EU approach on refugees, while pressing its partners in the Gulf to do far, far more.Militarily, the Saudi threat issued at Munich has to be made credible. If a ceasefire does not materialise soon, the Russians, Iranians and Assad himself have no incentives to quit





while they are ahead. Only the possibility of Arab ground forces, from Saudi Arabia, Jordan and the UAE, heavily backed by western logistics and intelligence, air power and technical specialists, could force Assad and his backers to make a strategic choice in favour of cessation. Only the US could make that work for the Saudis and others – and only Britain could bring along other significant European allies.This would undoubtedly be a dangerous escalation of the conflict. But in the absence of a genuine ceasefire, the conflict is destined to escalate in any case as Russian forces and Iranian militias put a vengeful Assad back in control of a broken country. If that has the eventual effect of letting him deal with Isis in Raqqa and Deir ez-Zor it will leave the west with much bigger strategic problems across the region as a whole. Fifteen years ago these would not have seemed such difficult choices. But after Iraq and Afghanistan they look like dismal options.The west can choose a dangerous push for a settlement now, or a tepid continuation of a policy that promises a longer war and strategic failure in the region – while hundreds of thousands of desperate people wait at Europe’s doorstep.

Caspian Sea cooperation: 24 Feb During a meeting with his Azeri counterpart Ilham Aliyev in Tehran yesterday, Iran’s President Rouhani officially proposed that the two countries work together to explore and develop oil and gas fields in the Caspian Sea, according to Iran’s Oil Minister Bijan Zanganeh. Iran’s NICO already holds a 10% share in the giant 1.2 trillion m³ offshore Shah Deniz gas field.The talks also covered the issue of oil and gas swaps. 11 MoUs were signed during Aliyev’s visit covering customs, animal husbandry, railway transportation, electricity, health and medical sciences, labor, women social affairs and joint investment projects – particularly in the Araz, Anzali and Maku free trade zones – as well as the oil and gas sector.




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Al-Qaida chief Ayman al-Zawahiri The Coordinator 2016 Part 4-1-Iran-18