ALADIN

A transition year

EWGLAM/SRNWP, Dubrovnik, 8/10/07

ALADIN 2006=>2007• Preparation of the ALADIN strategic 10 year plan

– Collective effort from:• An ad-hoc ‘taskforce’• Policy Advisory Committee• PM and an editing mini-group

– Final version hopefully available in November (quite needed to go to a multi/year planning structure (some lack of continuity in current long-term oriented efforts)

• AROME preparing for 2008 operational implementation in Toulouse.

• ALARO also (with some partial steps at ~10km [i.e. without 3MT yet], Cz, At …).

• Operational implementation schedule

• Examples: the good and the bad

• Outlook

News about AROME (as of Oct 07)

Operational implementation plan at MF

2007 2008 2009

dyn. adaptationtest runs

3DVar assimilationtest runs

preoperationaltest suite

operational productionArome v1

oper. prod.Arome v2

forecasters feedback & getting used to model behaviour

R&D Doppler radar assimilation R&D reflectivity, convection & clouds assimilation

nowcasting & relocatable versions

optimisation on MF's NEC

The Arome-France model config

Arome-France current domain

Aladin-France domain

Some other AROMEs...Alps (MAP D-PHASE experiment)

ongoing test runs by HIRLAM partners (FMI, DMI, SMHI)

and some more (Hungary...)

Here on a Paris thunderstorm case, missed by the lower resolution ALADIN assimilation, and by AROME in dynamical adaptation mode.

The improvement comes from low-level SYNOP T,HU,wind obs

Short-range forecast improvementthanks to local data assimilation

obs dyn. adaptation fc from assimilation

3-h rain

forecast

A typical nice forecast of low clouds

model

cloudy

areas

A tendency to overpredict density currents

near thunderstorms: under investigation

The 10km mesh base-line is stabilised and is already operationally or (pre-operationally) implemented, with good objective scores, especially for precipitations.

The work on the 5km mesh convective package (integrated, prognostic and multi-scale-oriented => 3MT) is ongoing, hard (upper-air scores just at break-even) but promising.

A word about ALARO

3MT

3MT: precip. outcome (provisional)

Without 3MT With 3MT

Outlook (until next EWGLAM)

For AROME: scientific work priorities: turbulence (i.e. numerical diffusion vs subgrid turbulence), physics/dynamics interaction in convective clouds, initialisation of precipitating clouds;increase vertical resolution.

For ALARO:Concretise the first good results with the full configuration;Go back to check the scale independency again;Create the conditions for a good oper support.