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America in 2020 and 20 years from now
NACCTFO Washington, DC
29 February 2020
Why do we have a decennial census?
Apportionment of the U.S. House of Representatives
Federal funds, grants and support to states, counties and communities are based on population totals.
A myriad of other uses in the private, non‐profit and government sectors
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U.S. Constitution Article I, Section 2
“Representatives and direct Taxes shall be apportioned among the several States which may be included within this Union, according to their respective Numbers. . . The actual Enumeration shall be made within three Years after the first Meeting of the Congress of the United States, and within every subsequent Term of ten Years, in such Manner as they shall by Law direct. .“
Losing: MN, IL, MI, WV, PA, NY & RI
Gaining: AZ, CO, MT, OR, FL , NC & TX (2)
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U.S. Population: 1790 ‐ 2010
• The first census consisted of six questions and counted about 3.9 million people
• The first enumerators were U.S. marshals (1790‐1870)
www.2020Census.gov/jobs
• By 1920, just under one half of the population lived in rural areas.
• In 2010, 19% of U.S. residents lived in rural areas – places with fewer than 2,500 people and population densities less than 500 people per square mile.
Where are we now?
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The rural population was roughly 50 million and the urban population was 42 million in 1910. One hundred years later, the decennial census counted 59 million residents in rural areas and 249 million residents in urban areas.
U.S. population growth by county2010‐2018
From 2010 – 2018 the US grew at a rate of 6%.
Counties with the largest growth were located in the south and west.
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US population growth by metro area: 2010‐2018
Among the five most populous metro areas:
(4) Dallas‐Fort Worth‐Arlington, TX
(5) Houston‐Woodlands‐Sugar Land TX
added more than 1 million people each ‐‐a growth rate of 17% and 18%, respectively.
Metro Population Growth2010‐2018
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An aging populationNatural increase dropped below 1 million for the first time in decades last year.
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Natural increase by county: 2018
Fertility rates reach record
lows
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Life Expectancy
• In 1960, the U.S. ranked 20th in the world for life expectancy
• In 2015, the U.S. ranked 40th
and is projected to drop further by 2060.
• Preventable health risks such as smoking, obesity and opioid‐related overdoes have contributed to slower gains in life expectancy.
Youth and diversity
• In 2018, 50.2% of U.S. children were white non‐Hispanic.
• By 2020, more than half of all children under 18 will identify as a racial minority.
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14 states and D.C. had majority
minority child populations in
2018
International migration
Net international migration added 595,000 to the U.S. population between 2018 and 2019, the lowest level this decade.
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International migration
• China replaced Mexico to become the largest sending country of foreign‐born immigrants to the United States as of 2018.
International migration
Florida, California, Texas, New York and Massachusetts typically gain the most migrants from abroad and typically comprise about half of net international migration.
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What does the future look like?
Methodology
Population projections are based on three primary components:
• Mortality
• Fertility
• International migration
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Three milestones in 2030
1. All baby boomers will be older than age 65
2. Older adults will outnumber children
3. International migration will overtake natural increase as a driver of population growth
Three milestones in 2030
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By 2030: Net international migration is expected to exceed natural increase as a primary driver of population growth
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997
1,118
2015 2020 2025 2030 2035 2040 2045 2050 2055 2060
Natural Increase
1,387
Net International Migration
Numbers in thousands
Source: Medina, L. ” U.S. Census Bureau Population Division. ”Demographic Turning Points for the UnitedStates: Population Projections from 2020 to2060 2019 Meeting of the Southern Demographic Association New Orleans, LA
Shifting dependency from youth to old‐age• 2020: 3.5 working‐age adults
for every 1 person of retirement age.
• 2060: 2.5 working‐age adults for every 1 person of retirement age.
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Population projections• Projections are dependent
upon policy, thus the following scenarios (right):
Foreign born population
by immigration scenario
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Race by immigration scenario
The 2020 Census: Why does it matter?
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Distribution of federal funds
• In fiscal year 2017, more than 300 federal spending programs relied on decennial census data to distribute $1.5 trillion in funding, according to the latest research by George Washington University professor Andrew Reamer.
• 15 programs that allocate $10 billion or more in spending account for 88% of the total.
Findings: Counting for
Dollars
• West Virginia relies more on census‐guided funding (16.6% of personal) than any other state, followed by Mississippi (16.4%).
• Colorado and Utah have the lowest dependence (6.3% and 6.7%, respectively).
• State differences can be explained by poverty rates, percentage of the population living in rural areas and the percent of the population 65 years and older.
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Complete count
Internet choice Invitations to complete the decennial census will be mailed in mid‐March.
Housing Unit Percent Total
Mail Contact Strategy
72.6% Internet First, English
5.7% Internet First, Bilingual
18.1% Internet Choice, English
3.7% Internet Choice, Bilingual
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Internet accessNationwide 78% of HH subscribe to the internet
Counties with higher subscription rates tend to be in or around urban areas, especially those along both coasts
Internet access
Rural and low‐income households trail the national average
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https://www.census.gov/newsroom/press‐releases/2019/contact‐strategies‐viewer.html
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Hard to Count Map
https://www.censushardtocountmaps2020.us/
Populations at risk of being
undercounted
• People of color
• Children under 5
• Crowded households
• Single‐parent households
• Immigrants
• Low‐income population
• People with limited English proficiency
• People living in multi‐family households
Source
Source: Center for Urban Research, CUNY
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