AN ANALYTICAL APPROACH FOR IDENTIFICATION … · for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution), ... bar chart, CPM, PERT, ... Identification of relation between risk management

http://www.iaeme.com/IJCIET/index.asp 771 [email protected]

International Journal of Civil Engineering and Technology (IJCIET)

Volume 9, Issue 5, May 2018, pp. 771–783, Article ID: IJCIET_09_05_086

Available online at http://www.iaeme.com/ijciet/issues.asp?JType=IJCIET&VType=9&IType=5

ISSN Print: 0976-6308 and ISSN Online: 0976-6316

© IAEME Publication Scopus Indexed

AN ANALYTICAL APPROACH FOR

IDENTIFICATION OF UNCERTAINTITES AND

PRIORTIZING THE FACTORS CAUSING

UNCERTAINITIES IN CONSTRUCTION

INDUSTRY USING RELATIVE IMPORTANCE

INDEX (RII)

T. Ganesh Anurag

P.G. Student, Department of Civil Engineering, K.L.E.F, Guntur, A.P, India

D. Satish Chandra

Assistant Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, K.L.E.F, Guntur, A. P, India

SS. Asadi

Associate Dean and Professor, Department of Civil Engineering, K.L.E.F, Guntur, A. P, India

ABSTRACT:

Construction sector is considered as a prominent sector in back lifting the Indian

economy next to that of agro-based sectors, not only acts a support in improving the

economic scenario but also a complex sector which comprises lot of risks and complex

processes will also include while executing the projects, Managing all the processes

will be the challenging task for management team of the organisations. As we know

that risk is nothing but an uncertainty or some threat which changes the entire

scenario of project. Sudden occurrence of such risks will show their influence on cost,

quality and duration of the project. In order to prevent such adverse scenarios, each

organisation should develop an individual risk management system on its own in

order to prevent effect of various risks on the project. The prime objective of this

research work is to identify the various risk causing factors in the construction

industry, and a questionnaire survey is conducted by selecting 25 factors on 5 point

scale, and responses were collected from various experts and ranking of those factors

were given through Relative Importance Index (RII).

Keywords: Back lifting, complex processes, ranking, Relative importance index (RII).

An Analytical Approach for Identification of Uncertaintites and Priortizing the Factors Causing

Uncertainities in Construction Industry Using Relative Importance Index (RII)


Cite this Article: T. Ganesh Anurag, D. Satish Chandra and SS. Asadi, An Analytical

Approach for Identification of Uncertaintites and Priortizing the Factors Causing

Uncertainities in Construction Industry Using Relative Importance Index (RII),

International Journal of Civil Engineering and Technology, 9(5), 2018, pp. 771–783.

http://www.iaeme.com/IJCIET/issues.asp?JType=IJCIET&VType=9&IType=5

1. INTRODUCTION:

Risk can be defined as the event that negatively affects the project objectives such as time,

schedule, cost and quality of work. Any industry or organisation is not risk free, every

industry will have their own uncertainty (risks) depending upon the projects, comparing to

other industries or sectors the construction sector will involve various types of risks at each

and every stage of the project, Although construction sector is 2nd

largest sector in upbringing

the Indian economy, it had very poor track record of in term of managing risks as a result

sometimes it’s become failure in meeting the timeline of the project , quality and scope of the

work. As a result, a lot of suffering is inflicted to the clients and contractors of such projects

and also to the general public. Managing risks is becoming a very tough job for managing

teams in various organisations. As earlier we said that “Risk in the construction adversely

effects the physical objectives of the project, cost and time”, and construction risks may

related to the design, political, environment, financial, and socio- economic risks. In order to

manage these types of risks each and every organisation should develop or implement an

individual risk management system. From the past mid 1980’s many methodologies had been

implemented for risk management system, and risk management is studied as one of the nine

research areas of the project management life cycle process. Risk identification is nothing but

the process of recognising the various types of uncertainties that take place in the organisation

which may cause due to the lack of management skills, stakeholder’s management,

contractor’s or engineering negligence in the site, or any other socio-economic factors in the

construction area. Delay in identification of such risks or uncertainties, may shows huge

impact on quality of the work.

It is main duty of a project manager to identify such uncertainties and to implement a

proper system to eradicate such adverse scenarios. Risk assessment is nothing but estimating

the severity of occurrence of risks and to study their impact on the projects. Both risk

identification and assessment are the integrated parts of the risk management system. Many

researchers, field experts and practisers had suggested many methodologies like PI method,

Severity index to study severity of delay and risks that occurred in the project, Frequency

index method to verify the frequency of occurrence of the risks, and IMPI based on both SI

and FI, Relative Importance Index(RII), Kendall’s coefficient of concordance (W),

Spearman's rank correlation coefficient or Spearman's rho (ρ) or rs, TOPSIS (The Technique

for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution), Complex Proportional Assessment

Of Alternatives to Grey relations (COPRAS-G method), and Analytical Hierarchy Processes

(AHP) and various statistical methodologies like AIC, Regression techniques, Fault tree

analysis (FTA) , Analysis of Variances(ANOVA) were suggested to analyse the risk severity

by comparing quality , cost and duration of projects. And project management tools like Gantt

chart, bar chart, CPM, PERT, and software’s like Primavera, MSP are used to check the risk

in project duration (Occurrence of delays in project work). The main intention behind to

choose Relative Importance Index (RII) method, as it is easy to explain / rank the severity of

risk causing factors from the responses that received by using formula.

RII = ∑W/A*N

T. Ganesh Anurag, D. Satish Chandra and SS. Asadi


Relative Importance Index (RII): - ∑W/A*N; Where, W is the weighting given to each

factor by the respondents (ranging from 1 to 5), A represents the highest weight (i.e. 5 in this

case), and N is the total number of respondents that received. By using this method it is easy

to assess the impact of risk on the project, by observing the RII value of that factor. An

organisation is said to be successful, when it achieve the quality in the output of the project

and when it fulfil the customer requirements by constructing the project as per the

specification mentioned in the Indian Standard (IS) codes, and various specifications

recommended by the various field experts.

2. OBJECTIVES:

1. To identify various risks in the construction sector.

2. Identification of relation between risk management and project performance.

3. Ranking of risk causing factors through responses by conducting questionnaire survey.

3. METHODOLOGY:

3.1. Data Collection

In order to perform the questionnaire survey 25 questions had been selected from various

factors which leads to cause of political risks, technical risks, socio-economic risk and

financial risks and 50 responses were collected. And sample question in questionnaire survey

was shown below:

Problems in Acquisition and Land use

Strongly agree (5)

Agree (4)

Disagree (3)

Strongly disagree (2)

Not applicable (1)

And each response in questionnaire survey is analysed by using Relative Importance

Index (RII)

RII = ∑W/A*N

RII= (5n5 + 4n4 +3n3+ 2n2+ 1n1) /A*N

where ∑W = 5n5 + 4n4 +3n3+ 2n2+ 1n1, (1-5) is likert scale values, and (n1, n2, n3, n4, n5 )

are the no. of responses recorded for each opinion in the questionnaire.

3.2. Field data

From the research, the factors which lead to cause of risks like Political risks, financial risks,

Technical risks, Project Management risks, and risks due to Socio- Economic conditions,

were identified.

The factors causing major risks in the construction projects were tabulated as follows:




Table 1 Various Risk Causing Factors in Construction Industry

Sl.no Factors Causing Risks

1 Problems in Acquisition and Land use

2 Risk due to administrative policies

3 Risk due to technical expertise

4 Risk due to redesign and alterations as required by rating systems

5 Unexpected issues in Transportation & storage of materials

6 Problems in Site Mobilization

7 Delays and Rework due to design alteration

8 Problems with site execution procedures

9 Inadequate duration of activity

10 Delay in identification of Schedule errors of project activities

11 Temporary demand of increase in price of materials

12 Pressure from political parties

13 Non availability of resources

14 Loosing of critical staff at crucial point

15 Impact of weather condition on completion of project

16 Variation of cost from current position to after completion of work

17 Selection of Contractual systems

18 Project manager abilities in handling and management of risks

19 Lack of Co-ordination between PM and Engineer

20 Sudden Change of Financial Situation

21 Financial Capabilities of Management

22 Experience of Project Manager

23 Improper allocation of Risks

24 Lack of proper co-ordination between clients and Project management

25 Hiring of Unskilled labour

3.3. Data Analysis:

Relative Importance Index (RII): Relative Importance Index is calculated for each of the

indicators and ranked accordingly. The RII derived to summarize the importance of each

indicator:

Where, W = weighting as assigned on Likert’s scale by each respondent in a range from 1

to 5 (1- not acceptable, 2- disagree, 3- strongly disagree, 4- agree, 5- strongly agree), where A

= Highest weight (here it is 5); N =Total number in the sample

Formula for RII: - RII = ∑W/A*N; where ∑W = 5n5 + 4n4 +3n3+ 2n2+ 1n1

RII = ∑W/A*N; where ∑W = 5n5 + 4n4 +3n3+ 2n2+ 1n1

RII = (5(15) + 4(33) + 3(1) + 2(1) + 1(0)) / 5*50

= 0.848



3.4. Research Methodology Flow chart:

4. RESULTS AND DISCUSSIONS:

As per survey, response of factors were analysed in detail as follows:

Figure 1 Pie Chart Representing the Expert Response

to the Factor Which Leads To Cause of Risk in Site

Area

Figure 2 Pie Chart Representing Expert Response to

the Factor Which Leads To Cause of Administrative

Risk

Problems in Acquisition and

Land use

Strongly agree Agree

Strongly disagree Disagree

Not Acceptable

Risk due to administrative

policies

strongly agree Agree

Strongly Disagree Disagree

Not Acceptable





the Factor Which Leads To Cause of Risk Due To

Improper Allocation or Recruitment of Unskilled

Employee in Organisation

Figure 4 Pie Chart Representing Expert Response To

The Factor Which Leads To Cause Of Risk Due To

Improper Execution Of Plan And Negligence Of Site

Engineer And Contractor

Figure 5 Pie Chart Representing Expert Response To

The Factor Which Leads To Cause Of Risk Due To

Improper Planning And Improper Resource

Management


the Factor Which Leads To Cause of Risk Due To

Negligence of Site Engineers and Contractor


the Factor Which Leads to Cause of Technical Risk


the Factor Which Leads To Cause of Construction Risk

Risk Due To Technical

Expertise



Not Acceptable

Risk due to redesign and

alterations as required by rating

systems

Strongly AgreeAgreeStrongly disagreeDisagreeNot Acceptable

Un expected issues in

transportation and storage of

materials



Not Acceptable

Problems in Site Mobilization



Not Acceptable

Delays and rework due to

design alterations

Strongly Agree Agree


Not Acceptable

Problems with site execution

procedures



Not Acceptable



Figure 9 Pie Chart Representing Expert

Response to the Factor Which Leads to Cause of

Risk Due to Improper Planning



Project Management Risk


Response to The Factor Which Leads to Cause

Of Risk Due to Improper Planning And Cost

Management



Political Risk

Figure13 Pie Chart Representing Expert


Risk due to Improper Resource Allocation



Organizational Risk

Inadequate duration of activity



Not Acceptable

Delays and rework due to

design alterations



Not Acceptable

Temporary demand of increase

in price of materials



Not Acceptable

Pressure from political parties



Not Acceptable

Non Availability of resources



Not Acceptable

Loosing of critical Staff at a

critical point



Not Acceptable




Figure15 Pie Chart Representing Expert


Risk Due To Climatic Conditions






Organisation Risk









Financial Risk

Impact of weather condition on

completion of project



Not Acceptable

Variation of cost from current

position to after completion of

work



Not Acceptable

Selection of Contractual

Systems



Not Acceptable

Project Manager abilities in

handling and management of

skills



Not Acceptable

Lack of co-ordination between

PM and Engineer


Strongly disagree disagree

Not Acceptable

Sudden change of Finanicial

situation



Not Acceptable





Financial Risk and Organizational Risks






Organisational Risk




Figure 25 Pie Chart Representing Expert Response to the Factor Which Leads to Cause of Project

Management Risk and Organisation Risk

Financial Capabilities of

Management



Not Acceptable

Experience of project manager



Not Acceptable

Improper Allocation of Risks



Not Acceptable

Lack of co-ordination between clients

and Project Management



Not Acceptable

Hiring of unskilled labour



Not Acceptable




As per RII analysing of the survey, results in the given below table has been observed,

from analysis it was identified that risks due to political pressures, financial situation, in

efficiency of project managers, risk due to hiring of unskilled labour, and disturbances in the

organisation, improper resource management and for in case of construction of infrastructure

projects selection of contractual systems will show high impact on the construction of the

projects. Of course change of weather and change of financial scenarios also show high

impact on the quality cost and duration of the project.

Table 2 Relative Importance Index (RII) values for all the factors

S.no Factors causing Risk RII value

1 Problems in Acquisition and Land use 0.848

2 Risk due to administrative policies 0.820

3 Risk due to technical expertise 0.836

4 Risk due to redesign and alterations as required by rating systems 0.816

5 Unexpected issues in Transportation & storage of materials 0.792

6 Problems in Site Mobilization 0.824

7 Delays and Rework due to design alteration 0.564

8 Problems with site execution procedures 0.792

9 Inadequate duration of activity 0.780

10 Delay in identification of Schedule errors of project activities 0.764

11 Temporary demand of increase in price of materials 0.764

12 Pressure from political parties 0.816

13 Non availability of resources 0.860

14 Loosing of critical staff at crucial point 0.860

15 Impact of weather condition on completion of project 0.820

16 Variation of cost from current position to after completion of work 0.760

17 Selection of Contractual systems 0.796

18 Project manager abilities in handling and management of risks 0.880

19 Lack of Co-ordination between PM and Engineer 0.812

20 Sudden Change of Financial Situation 0.892

21 Financial Capabilities of Management 0.872

22 Experience of Project Manager 0.860

23 Improper allocation of Risks 0.852

24 Lack of proper co-ordination between clients and Project management 0.820

25 Hiring of Unskilled labour 0.816



Figure 26 Graph representing RII values of risk causing factor

0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.9 1

Problems in Acquisition and Land use

Risk due to administrative policies

Risk due to technical expertise

Risk due to redesign and alterations as required by ratingsystems

Unexpected issues in Transportation & storage of materials

Problems in Site Mobilization

Delays and Rework due to design alteration

Problems with site execution procedures

Inadequate duration of activity

Delay in identification of Schedule errors of project activities

Temporary demand of increase in price of materials

Pressure from political parties

Non availability of resources

Loosing of critical staff at crucial point

Impact of weather condition on completion of project

Variation of cost from current position to after completionof work

Selection of Contractual systems

Project manager abilities in handling and management ofrisks

Lack of Co-ordination between PM and Engineer

Sudden Change of Financial Situation

Financial Capabilities of Management

Experience of Project Manager

Improper allocation of Risks

Lack of proper co-ordination between clients and Projectmanagement

Hiring of Unskilled labour

Risk / Uncertanities causing factors in Construction Industry




This research identifies various risk factors which effect the growth of construction and

study on Relative Importance Index (RII) is done in order to rank the major factors leads to

cause of the risk in the construction field. Factors like in ability of project manager, change in

the financial scenario, sudden exit of project manager, improper resource management, and

changes in environment conditions and also in socio-economic conditions shows high impact

on the quality of the project and after observing all these, this paper suggests that a proper risk

management system with various new methodologies and techniques should be arranged in

the organisation, and it is main responsibility of the project manager to monitor the

performance of project regularly for better output and to meet the customer satisfaction,

because of the proper monitoring and controlling only the quality of the project will be

obtained, As successful completion of projects with quality output will help the sector to

sustain for long time and development of nation will also takes place.

REFERENCES:

[1] Divya Gupta, Manoj Sharma, Dr. Ashutosh Shankar Trivedi on Risk Management In

Construction Projects Of Developing Countries, International Journal of Engineering

Research and Applications, Vol. 5, Issue 11, November 2015, pp. 154-156

[2] A. Suchith Reddy on Risk Management in Construction Industry -A Case Study,

International Journal of Innovative Research in Science Engineering and Technology, Vol.

4, Issue 10, October 2015

[3] Seyed Hossein Abedian Kalkhoran, Gholamali Liravi, Fereshte Rezagholi on Risk

Management in Construction Projects, International Journal of Engineering Trends and

Technology, Volume 10 Number 3, Apr 2014

[4] Lee Chun Siang and Azlan Shah Ali on Implementation of Risk Management in the

Malaysian Construction Industry, Journal of Surveying, Construction & Property Vol.3,

Issue 1, 2012-07-02.

[5] Patel Kishan, Dr. Rajiv Bhatt, Prof. J. J. Bhavsar on A Study of Risk Factors Affecting

Building Construction Projects, International Journal of Engineering Research &

Technology , Vol. 3, Issue 12, December-2014.

[6] Rashid H, Manisha M. Magdum, Manish A. Khandare on Delay Analysis In Industrial

Projects By Using Relative Importance Index Method, International Research Journal of

Engineering and Technology, Volume: 04, Issue: 06, June -2017.

[7] Ashwini Arun Salunkhe, Rahul S. Patil on Statistical Methods for Construction Delay

Analysis, IOSR Journal of Mechanical and Civil Engineering, Volume 9, Issue 2, Oct.

2013, PP 58-62.

[8] Greeshma R Krishnan, Minu Anna Johny on Assessment of Risk Factors in Construction

Project Using PI Method, International Research Journal of Engineering and Technology,

Volume: 03, Issue 09, Sep-2016.

[9] K. Jayasudha and B. Vidivelli on Analysis of Major Risks in Construction Projects”,

ARPN Journal of Engineering and Applied Sciences, Vol. 11, No. 11, June 2016.

[10] Lokhandwala Hardik, Dr. Bhatt Rajiv on Identification of Causes of Delay for Industrial

Construction Projects in Indian Context, Journal of International Academic Research for

Multidisciplinary, Volume 2, Issue 12, January 2015.



[11] Divya Gupta, Manoj Sharma, Dr. Ashutosh Shankar Trivedi on Risk Management:

Identifying Key Risks in Construction Projects, International Journal of Civil and

Structural Engineering Research, Vol. 4, Issue 1, pp: (9-15), Sept- 2016.

[12] R. Prasanna Kumar, Afshan Sheikh, SS. Asadi on A Systematic Approach for Evaluation

of Risk Management In Road Construction Projects - A Model Study, International

Journal of Civil Engineering and Technology, Volume 8, Issue 3, March 2017, pp. 888–

902.

[13] SS.Asadi, Y.Sree Ramulu, M.V.Raju and D. Satish Chandra on, Creation of Remote

Sensing and GIS Based Risk Area Mapping For Ground Water Pollution Prevention: A

Case Study, International Journal of Applied Engineering Research, Volume 10, Number

4 (2015) pp. 10859-10875.

[14] G. Pavan Kumar, SS. Asadi on The Effect Of Earned Value Management On Risk

assessment Using Analytical Network Process: A Case Study, International Journal of

Civil Engineering and Technology, Volume 7, Issue 6, November-December 2016,

pp. 720–731.

Documents

AN ANALYTICAL APPROACH FOR IDENTIFICATION … · for Order of Preference by Similarity to Ideal Solution), ... bar chart, CPM, PERT, ... Identification of relation between risk management