An Overview of the Current and N Future NCEP …web2.sca.uqam.ca/~wgne/CMOS/PRESENTATIONS/5620_lapenta.pdf · 2012-07-03 · An Overview of the Current and Future NCEP Operational

1

NAn Overview of the Current and

Future NCEP Operational

William. M. LapentaActing Director

Environmental Modeling Center

NCE

Future NCEP Operational Modeling Suite

NWP/WAF 29 May 2012 1

g

NOAA/NWS/NCEP

Geoff DiMego , John Derber , Yuejian Zhu , Hendrik Tolman , Vijay Tallapragada, Shrinivas Moorthi , Mike Ek , Mark Iredell , Suru Saha

P

Presentation Outline

• NOAA Center for Weather and Climate Prediction Status

• Operational Computing at NOAA

• Major Upgrades to the Production Suite– Global Forecast & Data Assimilation System (GDAS/GFS)– Global Ensemble & North American Ensemble Forecast

System (GEFS & NAEFS)S l S t (CFS 2 d NMME)


– Seasonal System (CFSv2 and NMME)– CONUS Mesoscale & ensemble systems (NAM & SREF)– Regional Hurricane (HWRF)

• Thoughts Going Forward

2

NOAA Center for Weather andClimate Prediction (NCWCP) Status

A.K.A.—the new building….

• Four-story, 268,762 square foot building in Riverdale, MD will house 800+ Federal employees,house 800 Federal employees, and contractors

• 5 NCEP Centers (NCO, EMC, HPC, OPC, CPC)

• NESDIS Center for Satellite Applications and Research (STAR)

• NESDIS Satellite Analysis Branch (SAB)

• OAR Air Resources Laboratory


• Includes 40 spaces for visiting scientists

• Includes 465 seat auditorium & conference center, library, deli, fitness center and health unit

Forecast Forecast UncertaintyUncertaintyForecast Forecast UncertaintyUncertainty

SeasonsSeasons

YearsYears

Seamless Suite of Numerical Guidance Systems Spanning Weather and Climate

OutlookOutlook

NCEP Model Perspective

HoursHours

DaysDays

1 Week1 Week

2 Week2 Week

MonthsMonths

Fo

reca

st L

ead

Tim

eF

ore

cast

Lea

d T

ime

WatchesWatches

ForecastsForecasts

Threats Assessments

GuidanceGuidance

•North American Ensemble Forecast System

•Climate Forecast System

•Short-Range Ensemble Forecast

•Global Forecast System

•North American Mesoscale

•Rapid Update Cycle for Aviation

•Global Ensemble Forecast System

Hurricane WRF & GFDL

WavesReal Time Ocean Forecast System

•Global Forecast System

•North American Mesoscale


•Global Ensemble Forecast System

Hurricane WRF & GFDL

WavesReal Time Ocean Forecast System

•North American Ensemble Forecast System

•Climate Forecast System

•Short-Range Ensemble Forecast


MinutesMinutesWarnings & Alert Warnings & Alert

CoordinationCoordination

Benefits


•Dispersion Models for DHS

Hurricane WRF & GFDLSpace WeatherTsunami


•Dispersion Models for DHS

Hurricane WRF & GFDLSpace WeatherTsunami

3

May 2012

Production Suite on Supercomputerm

ber

of N

odes


Time of the day (utc)

Nu

00 06 12 1875% Production00 % Development

Comparison of IBM P6 andiDataPlex Systems (per site)

System LifecycleD t

Operating S t

AverageC bilit

AverageC it

Number of t /

Sustained T FLOPDate System Capability Capacity compute /

batch coresTeraFLOP

IBM P6 Oct 2012 –Sep 2013

AIX 5.3 1.0X 1.0X 5,314 73.9 TF

iDataPlex Dec 2012 Planned

Acceptance

Linux(RHEL)

1.5X over P6

1.65X over P6

7,168 149 TF


• Pland and Schedule:• Access to a 2-node system—compiling codes• Full system available in September 2012• Acceptance of both systems Jan 2013• Operational no later than 1 October 2013

4

Global Data AssimilationSystem Upgrade

• Hybrid system– Most of the impact comes from

• Satellite radiance monitoring code

Implemented 22 May 2012

Most of the impact comes from this change

– Uses ensemble forecasts to help define background error

• NPP (ATMS) assimilated– Quick use of data after launch

• Use of GPSRO Bending A l th th

monitoring code– Allows quicker awareness of

problems (run every cycle)– Monitoring software can

automatically detect many problems

• Post changes– Additional fields requested by

forecasters (80m variables)

NWP/WAF 29 May 2012

Angle rather than refractivity– Allows use of more data

(especially higher in atmos.)– Small positive impacts

( )

• Partnership between research and operations

7

GFS Paper: 1B1.2 11:30 Today: Glenn White et al. (Fanglin Yang presenting)Hybrid Paper: 1E1.1 16:30 Today: Daryl Kleist and Kayo Ide

500 hPa Anomaly Correlation forHybrid GDAS Parallel

Northern Hemisphere Southern Hemisphere

8 Jan to 15 May 2012 (00Z cycles only)

OperationalHybrid Para

OperationalHybrid Para Hybrid ParaHybrid Para

Day 5 Day 5Day 10 Day 10


5

CONUS Day-3 Precipitation ScoresFor Hybrid GDAS Parallel8 Jan to 15 May 2012 (00Z cycles only)

OperationalO ti l

Equitable Threat Score BiasOperationalHybrid Para

OperationalHybrid Para


Orange: Operational GFSGreen: FY12 GFS with Hybrid GSI

2010-2011 Atlantic TC Track ErrorsFor Hybrid GDAS Parallel

Day-1 Day-2 Day-3 Day-4 Day-5

NWP/WAF 29 May 2012

~16% Reduction at Days 4 & 5

6

Parameter NCEP CMC NAEFSModel GFS GEM NCEP+CMC

Initial uncertainty ETR EnKF ETR + EnKF

Global Ensemble Systems

Model uncertainty/Stochastic

Yes (Stochastic Pert) Yes (multi-physics) Yes

Tropical storm Relocation None

Daily frequency 00,06,12 and 18UTC 00 and 12UTC 00 and 12UTC

Resolution T254L42 (d0-d8)~55km

T190L42 (d8-16)~70km

(d0-d16) ~ 66km 1*1 degree

Control Yes Yes Yes (2)


Ensemble members 20 for each cycle 20 for each cycle 40 for each cycle

Forecast length 16 days (384 hours) 16 days (384 hours) 16 days

Post-process Bias correction

(same bias for all members)

Bias correction

for each member

Yes

Last Upgrade February 14th 2012 August 17th 2011

GEFS Paper: 4B3.4 Thursday at 11:15: Yuejian Zhu et al. (Fanglin Yang presenting)

GEFS UpgradeImplemented 14 Feb 2012

NH 500mb Height AC01 Sept 2011 to 30 Nov 2011

GFSDay-8 GEFS

Day-9NAEFS

Day-9.25


7

GEFS Upgrade:2011 Atlantic Basin TC Track Errors


Attribute CFSv1 (Operational 2004) CFSv2 (March 2011)

Analysis Resolution 200 km 27 km

Atmosphere model 200 km/28 levels 100 km/64 levels

Advancement of Climate Forecast System (CFS) Implemented 30 March 2011

Humidity based clouds Variable CO2

AER SW & LW radiation

Prognostic clouds & liquid water

Retuned mountain blocking

Convective gravity wave drag

Ocean model MOM-3: 60N-65S

1/3 x 1 deg.

Assim depth 750 m

MOM-4 fully global

¼ x ½ deg.

Assim depth 4737 m

Land surface model 2-level LSM 4 level Noah model


Land surface model (LSM) and assimilation

2 level LSM

No separate land data assim

4 level Noah model

GLDAS driven by obs precip

Sea ice Climatology Daily analysis and Prognostic sea ice

Coupling Daily 30 minutes

Data assimilation Retrieved soundings, 1995 analysis, uncoupled background

Radiances assimilated, 2008 GSI, coupled background

Reforecasts 15/month seasonal output 25/month (seasonal)

124/month (week 3-6)

8

Improved WH MJO Signal in CFSv2

CFSv1 CFSv250%50% CFSv1 CFSv2

8-day lead 18-day lead

50%50%


• Facilitated by the NOAA Climate Test Bed

• NMME as a Modeling Test-Bed• Seasonal to Interannual Time Scales

National Multi-ModelEnsemble (NMME) Project

• Seasonal to Interannual Time Scales• Predictability Research: e.g., South East US Drought• Model Evaluation and Development• Initialization Strategies: e.g., Land, Ocean• Fosters interaction between research and operations• Provides experimental guidance products to Climate Prediction Center

• Participating Organizations:• University of Miami - RSMAS • NASA – GMAO


y• National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR)• Center for Ocean--‐Land--‐Atmosphere Studies (COLA)• International Research Ins7tute for Climate and Society (IRI)• Canadian Meteorological Centre (Soon)

Data are available at: http://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/SOURCES/.Models/.NMME/

• NOAA/NCEP/EMC/CPC• NOAA/GFDL• Princeton University• University of Colorado (CIRES

9

North America Model (NAM)• Implemented 18 October 2011

• NEMS based NMM• Outer grid at 12 km to 84hr

Rapid Refresh (RAP)• Implemented 1 May 2012

• WRF-based ARW• Use of GSI analysis

Operational MesoscaleModeling for CONUS:

Outer grid at 12 km to 84hr• Multiple Nests Run to ~48hr

– 4 km CONUS nest– 6 km Alaska nest– 3 km HI & PR nests– 1.3km DHS/FireWeather/IMET

Use of GSI analysis• Expanded 13 km Domain to

include Alaska• Experimental 3 km HRRR

RUC-13 CONUS domain

WRF-Rapid Refresh domain – 2010


Original CONUS domain

Experimental 3 km HRRR

Upper air verification against raobs (25 April to 02 May 2012)Height RMS error Vector Wind RMS error

Operational

Preliminary Testing for NAM FY13 Upgrade Package

Day 1 = BlackDay 2 = RedDay 3 = Blue

Improved physics

Improved physicsAnd EnKF in DAP

ress

ure

(m

b)

Pre

ssu

re (

mb

)

Day 1 = BlackDay 2 = RedDay 3 = Blue


Height RMS (m) OperationalPhysics changesPhysics changes & global EnKF

Vector Wind RMS (m/s)

• Physics Modifications:• GWD updated• BMJ_DEV, fres=0.85 • RRTM, latest version as of 3/24• Remove 4x diffusion of q, cloud water• Microphysics changes

• Data Assimilation Modifications:• Raob level enhancement in GSI• Use ensemble forecasts from the

global EnKF system to compute background error covariances

WARNING, WARNING, WARNING: SMALL SAMPLE SIZE

10

• Model Changes– Resolution increase from 32km/35km to 16km– Eliminate Eta and RSM legacy models– Upgrade WRF cores from v2.2 to version 3.3

35 levels in the vertical and 50 mb model top

FY2012 – SREF implementationTarget Implementation July 2012

– 35 levels in the vertical and 50 mb model top

• Initial condition and physics diversity improvement– Control ICs (NDAS, GDAS, RAP blended @ edges w/GFS)– IC perturbation is a blend of regional breeding and downscaled ETR – Land IC (NDAS, GFS, and RAP).– Physics (NAM, GFS, HWRF, NCAR and RAP)

• New capabilities of post-processing & product generation– Precipitation bias correction

NWP/WAF 29 May 2012

Precipitation bias correction – Clustering and associated mean/prob/spread within a cluster– Member performance ranking – Downscaling to 5km using RTMA and associated ensemble products

• New ensemble products– Max/min, mode, 10-25-50-75-90% forecasts– Probs of severe thunderstorm, lightning, dry lightning, fire weather (SPC) as well

as fog, LLWS, composite reflectivity and echo top – Addition of hourly ensemble product output from 1-39 hr 19

Plans for a National Mesoscale Ensemble System

• Convergence of NAM, RAP, HRRR and SREF between 2016 and 2018

• System must meet requirements of today and Syste ust eet equ e e ts o today a dfuture

– Provide NextGen Enroute AND terminal guidance – Provide PROBABILITY guidance with full Probability

Density Function specified– Address Warn-on-Forecast as resolutions evolve

towards ~1 km

• Core elements– Common data assimilation system

Code Infrastructure and management system

NWP/WAF 29 May 2012

– Code Infrastructure and management system

• Potential Attributes of the North American Rapid Refresh Ensemble (NARRE)

– Hourly updated with forecasts to 24 hours– Control data assimilation cycles with 3 hour pre-

forecast period– 84 hr forecasts are extensions of the 00z, 06z, 12z, &

18z runs

20

11

• A high-resolution hurricane model operating at cloud-permitting 3km resolution was implemented on 24 May 2012

Regional Hurricane ModelingUpgrade for 2012 season (HWRF)

• Reflects multi-agency efforts supported by the Hurricane Forecast Improvement Project (HFIP)

• Three atmospheric telescoping nested domains: 27km outer domain 75x75 degree 9km intermediate nest ~11x10 degree 3km inner-most nest ~6x5 degree


g

New centroid based nest motion algorithm, 1-D coupling in East-Pac, improved physics & vortex initialization

Upgraded tracker and new high-temporal resolution (every time step) track and intensity product and new SSMI/S synthetic microwave imagery

Improved Vertical Structure(Irene09L.2011082212 15h forecast)

Wind structure

Smaller Size of vortexSmaller Size of vortex


PBL height

Lower PBL heightLower PBL height

12

87% of total retrospective runs from

2010 and 2011 3km HWRF Pre-Implementation Test Results

Atlantic Basin

2010-2011 seasons show 10-25% reduction in track errors and 5-15%

reduction in intensity errors

37 Storms37 Storms2010: Alex Two Bonnie Colin Five


2010: Alex, Two, Bonnie, Colin, Five, Danielle, Earl, Fiona, Gaston, Hermine, Igor, Karl, Matthew, Nicole, Otto, Paul Richard, Shary, Tomas

2011: Arlene, Bret, Cindy, Don, Emily, Franklin, Gert, Harvey, Irene, Ten, Lee, Katia, Maria, Nate, Philippe, Rina, Sean

Real Time Ocean Forecast SystemImplemented 24 October 2011

• RTOFS Global is the first global eddy-resolving ocean forecast system at NOAA/NCEP

• 1/12 degree HYCOM (HYbrid Coordinate Ocean Model)

• 6-day forecasts initialized at 00 UTC

• 32 vertical hybrid layers (isopycnal in the deep, isolevel in the mixed layer and sigma in


shallow waters)

• Initialization: MVOI scheme (NCODA) developed by the US Navy

• Forced with the GFS surface fluxes of radiation, precipitation and momentum.

Thanks to the NAVY for partnering with NOAA and making HYCOM available

13

Executable compiled from NEMS trunk code repository

NEMS GFS/GOCART Aerosol Scheduled Implementation Q4FY12

Experimental (non-operational)

120-hr dust-only forecast

Once per day (00Z)

3-hourly products: 3d distribution of dust aerosols (5 bins from 0.1 – 10 µm)

Automatic output archive, post processing and web update since June 11, 2011

Same physics and dynamics as operational

NWP/WAF 29 May 2012

Same physics and dynamics as operational GFS with the following exceptions:– Lower resolution (T126 L64)

– Use RAS with convective transport and tracer scavenging

– Aerosol-radiation feedback is turned off

http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/gmb/sarah/NGAC/html/realtime.fcst.html

Column AOD @ 550nm

25

CLIMATE CFS

GFS + MOM3/4

OceansHYCOM

Hurricane GFDL

HWRF (NMM)

Linkage of Model Systems Within Production Suite

‘Mostly’Satellite+Radar

North AmericanMesoscale

NMM

GlobalForecastSystem

~3.5B Obs / Day

Global DataAssimilation

NMM + ARW

Dispersion, Ash,Smoke & DustARL’s HYSPLIT

Severe Weather

WaveWatch III

Regional Data Short Range


North American Ensemble Forecast System

Rapid Refreshfor AviationARW + GSI

Air QualityNAM + EPA/ ARL’s CMAQ

Regional DataAssimilation

NMM + ARW +ETA + RSM

GEFS + Canadian Global +… Very Short Range Ensemble ForecastsTime-Lagged RR+NAM

Short-RangeEnsemble Forecast

14

Is a Unified Modeling Approach Possible at NOAA?Global, CONUS & Hurricane

84-hour forecasts from 12Z 17 Sep 2010Lowest model layer winds (m/s).


Global NMM-B in the outermost domain NAM/NMM-B inside the global domainCONUS nest inside the NAMMoving nests of Hurricanes Igor and JuliaConfiguration within a single executable

Thanks for your attention and enjoy the meeting


15

1B1.2 ID:5445 Tuesday 11:30: Recent and future changes in the NCEP Global Forecast System Glenn White et al. (Fanglin Yang presenting)

1E3.6 ID:5637 Tuesday 17:45: Cloud ceiling analysis in the RTMA. Yanqiu Zhu and Geoff Dimego

Other papers/posters of interest

y g y q g

3D3.2 ID:5722 Thursday 15:30 Joint OSSE data set, Michiko Masutani et al.

4B3.4 ID:5418 Friday 11:15: Experiment of Multi-physics Global Ensemble System. Yuejian Zhu et al.

3B1.1 ID:5487 Thursday at 10:30 The third upgrade of NOAA's National Centers for Environmental Prediction's Real-Time Mesoscale Analysis Manuel S.f.v. De Pondeca et al.

3E1.5 ID:5466 Thursday 17:30 A comparison of ensemble perturbations generated by breeding and ensemble Kalman Filter schemes Xiaqiong Zhou et al.


2B1.5 ID:5330 Wednesday 11:45 Review of NCEP GFS Forecast Skills in 2011 and Beyond; Fanglin Yang

3B3.2 ID:5712 Thursday at 11:00 The High Resolution Rapid Refresh (HRRR): An hourly updating convection permitting forecast system nested in an hourly cycled mesoscale model with multi-scale data assimilation; Curtis Alexander et al.

1E1.1 ID:5520 Tuesday at 16:30: An OSSE-based evaluation of 4D-Ensemble-Var (and hybrid variants) for the NCEP GFS; Daryl Kleist and Kayo Ide

member 1 analysis

member 1 forecast

EnKF ensemble t b ti

Dual-Resolution CoupledHybrid 3D-VAR/EnKF

T254L64

Uses background error covariances computed

from the ensemble

Generating new ensemble perturbations given the latest

set of observations and a first-guess ensemble

EnKFmember update

member 2 analysis

member 2 forecast

perturbations are "re-centered" around the high-

res analysis

member 3 forecast

member 3 analysis

Replaces the EnKF ensemble mean

first-guess ensemble used to estimate background error

Used for GFS forecasts for next

cycle

T254L64

NWP/WAF 29 May 2012

forecastGSI

Hybrid Ens/Var analysis

Previous Cycle Current Update Cycle

T574L64

Deterministic forecast

ensemble mean analysis

background error covariances

Documents

An Overview of the Current and N Future NCEP …web2.sca.uqam.ca/~wgne/CMOS/PRESENTATIONS/5620_lapenta.pdf · 2012-07-03 · An Overview of the Current and Future NCEP Operational