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Argetipe soos waargeneem in gemeentes
GDN- Communitas
Feb 2009
Frederick Marais
Do we understand the structure of our problems?
Events & Symptoms
(tyranny of the urgent)
Patterns over time
(trends & forecasts)
The structure at work
Variables and their dynamic causal interplay.
(Causes patterns and events)
Systems Thinking involves - looking at all 3 levelsSystems Thinking involves - looking at all 3 levels
L
H
Levera
ge a
nd
learn
ing
Variable
• It acts (causes) and is acted upon (caused)• Noun or noun phrases (the name of something)• Neutral• Can vary (up or down)• Not action words (verbs)
• Level of motivation• Number of complaints• Amount of resourcesTest: Can I make a time plot of it?
Link• A arousal relationship, not a process step• Only points one way ― causality works in only
one direction
A Baffects
OR
Changes in
A Bwill produce
Changes in
Feedback loop • Systems Thinking is thinking in loops rather than straight lines
• Basic premise: Parts of a system are all connected directly or indirectly ― therefore a change in one will ripple out to affect all the others. The effect of this is to eventually ripple out and return to the original variable.
A
C
D
B
Basic language in System Thinking
Acme Co - The Two Views
What’s the difference?
Traditional view Systems Thinking view
One problem, one solution
Linear thinking
Someone else knows better - best practices/benchmarks
Quantitative
Many problems, few solutions (80/20 principle)
Causal thinking
We have the solutions to our own problems
Qualitative
Acme Company - One View
Problems
• Billing Errors
• Late deliveries
• Excessive sales time on new accounts
• Systems poorly used
Solutions
• Rewrite billing manual & retrain
• Install auto-mated delivery routing system
• Create new account policies
• Develop new systems and documentation
Time Trends
Sales
Effort on New Accounts
Profitability
Billing errors & Delivery problems
Time Trends
Sales
Effort on New Accounts
Profitability
Billing errors & Delivery problems
Consultants start Consultants finish
Acme Company - One View
Acme Company - One View
Time Trends
Sales
Effort on New Accounts
Profitability
Billing errors & Delivery problems
Consultants start Consultants finish
Fixes that backfire
Ds seenergievlakke
Ds se funksioneringin gemeente
Gemeente setevredenheidmet bediening
Ds se werkslading R
Ontvanklik virhulp van buite
Ds ontvangtyd vir verposing
Gereedheid v ds virproses in gemeente
Druk opkerkraad
Gesprek metgemeente
Fixes that backfire
-
-+
-+
+ +
+
+
+
+
+
Die rooi pyle is die b-loop wat die r-loop omdraai
• Die aanvanklike R loop loop hom in ‘n B loop van onverwagse uitkomste vas
• Wat op sy beurt die R-loop omdraai in ‘n vicious sirkel
• En so word goed bedoelde hulp ‘n nadeel vir die gemeente
Limits to SuccessLimits to Success
Limits to Success
Virtuous Cycle Limiting Process
Sad but true, nothing grows forever. What often happens with a reinforcing structure is that there are limits to growth, which have not yet kicked in. If you know where they are, maybe you don’t have to run into them, or, at least, avoid them as long as possible.
Limits to Success
Dinamiese leierskap R
Translates to this behavior over time…..
If we can do it, so can they.
s
s
Groei in die gemeente
Druk op bronne
B
Energie van leieskap
s
s
o
Limits to Success
Exercise: Limits to Success
A’s and B’s Activities
A’s and B’s Success
Accidental AdversariesAccidental
Adversaries
Accidental Adversaries
The Accidental Adversaries structure is a composed of (a minimum of) two reinforcing loops and two balancing loops. Overall system growth is driven by a virtuous
reinforcing structure. Two balancing structures (whose effects create a vicious reinforcing structure) limit the growth of the overall growth engine. This is one of the
more difficult archetypes to understand, but essentially it is two fixes backfiring on each other.
Accidental Adversaries
Broker: Friend or Foe?
Underwriter A’s Profit
Direct SellingCommission Paid to Broker B
Broker B’s Income
Marketing of Competitor’s Products
# Policies Sold for Underwriter A
R & D
Product Diversity
Satisfaction of Client need
Maintenance of Client Relationship
# Contract/ Policy Renewals
o
s
o
s
o
s
o
s
s
s
ss
s
s
sR3
B1
B2
R4
Managing Accidental Adversaries
• Get together and understand the whole picture
• Strengthening your mutual understanding of each other’s needs and the criteria by which each of you define success
• Remove or weaken the constraints in your partner’s system that make your own solution harmful
• Reaffirm the intent of the partnership and acknowledge the damage that was done was unintentional