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Assimilation of MODIS winds at ECMWF. Niels Bormann, Jean-No ël Thépaut, and Graeme Kelly * (ECMWF) ( * now at UK Met.Office) (with contributions from Dave Santek and Jeff Key, CIMSS). Outline. Introduction: Polar winds from MODIS Forecast impact of MODIS winds - PowerPoint PPT Presentation
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ECMWFArctic Imaging Workshop, Copenhagen, 20/21 August 2008
Assimilation of MODIS winds at ECMWF
Niels Bormann, Jean-Noël Thépaut, and Graeme Kelly*
(ECMWF)
(* now at UK Met.Office)
(with contributions from Dave Santek and Jeff Key, CIMSS)
ECMWFArctic Imaging Workshop, Copenhagen, 20/21 August 2008
Outline
1. Introduction: Polar winds from MODIS
2. Forecast impact of MODIS winds
3. Forecast example of MODIS winds impact
4. AVHRR winds
5. Summary
ECMWFArctic Imaging Workshop, Copenhagen, 20/21 August 2008
Outline
1. Introduction: Polar winds from MODIS
2. Forecast impact of MODIS winds
3. Forecast example of MODIS winds impact
4. AVHRR winds
5. Summary
ECMWFArctic Imaging Workshop, Copenhagen, 20/21 August 2008
1) Polar winds from MODIS
• Wind derivation developed at CIMSS (Cooperative Institute for Meteorological Satellite Studies), Madison • Based on feature-tracking in subsequent MODIS swaths (similar to “cloud track winds” from geostationary satellites)
• Height assignment to cloud top: IR brightness temperature/WV-intercept method
ECMWFArctic Imaging Workshop, Copenhagen, 20/21 August 2008
1) Polar winds from MODIS (cnt’d)
• Primary source of wind observations over the polar regions• Assimilated operationally at ECMWF since 14 January 2003.
Sample of IR winds
Sample of WV winds
ECMWFArctic Imaging Workshop, Copenhagen, 20/21 August 2008
Outline
1. Introduction: Polar winds from MODIS
2. Forecast impact of MODIS winds
3. Forecast example of MODIS winds impact
4. AVHRR winds
5. Summary
ECMWFArctic Imaging Workshop, Copenhagen, 20/21 August 2008
2) Forecast impact:Data assimilation system
The observations are used to correct errors in the short forecast from the previous analysis time.
Every 12 hours we assimilate 4 – 8,000,000 observations to correct the 100,000,000 variables that define the model’s virtual atmosphere.
This is done by a careful 4-dimensional analysis in space and time of the available observations; this operation takes as much computer power as the 10-day forecast.
ECMWFArctic Imaging Workshop, Copenhagen, 20/21 August 2008
assimilation window
t0 tnti
yo
yo
yo
yo
previous forecast
xb corrected forecast (analysis)
xa observations
2) Forecast impact:Schematic of 4d variational data assimilation (4DVAR)
ECMWFArctic Imaging Workshop, Copenhagen, 20/21 August 2008
2) Forecast impact of MODIS winds
Assimilation experiments:- 3DVAR, T159/159 (~125 km res.):
- 5 March—3 April 2001 (30 forecasts)- 4DVAR, T511/159 (~40 km/125 km model/analysis res.):
- 13 July—29 August 2002 (48 forecasts) - 5 March—3 April 2001 (30 forecasts)
CTL: No MODIS winds; otherwise full operational set of observations.MODIS: MODIS winds added to CTL.
MODIS winds used: IR, WV cloudy and clear, Terra data only Over land: IR and WV winds above 400 hPa. Over sea: IR winds above 700 hPa, WV above 550 hPa.
(see also Bormann and Thépaut, 2004, MWR)
ECMWFArctic Imaging Workshop, Copenhagen, 20/21 August 2008
2) Forecast impact (3DVAR)
Anomaly correlation for 500 hPa geopotential, each experiment verified against its own analysis (25 cases).
Northern Hemisphere Arctic (N of 65N)
ECMWFArctic Imaging Workshop, Copenhagen, 20/21 August 2008
2) Forecast impact (3DVAR, cnt’d)
Anomaly correlation for 500 hPa geopotential, each experiment verified against its own analysis (25 cases).
Southern Hemisphere Antarctic (S of 65S)
ECMWFArctic Imaging Workshop, Copenhagen, 20/21 August 2008
2) Forecast impact (4DVAR)
Anomaly correlation for 500 hPa geopotential, each experiment verified against own analysis (58 cases).
ECMWFArctic Imaging Workshop, Copenhagen, 20/21 August 2008
2) Forecast impact (4DVAR, cnt’d)
Anomaly correlation for 500 hPa geopotential, each experiment verified against own analysis (58 cases).
ECMWFArctic Imaging Workshop, Copenhagen, 20/21 August 2008
Outline
1. Introduction: Polar winds from MODIS
2. Forecast impact of MODIS winds
3. Forecast example of MODIS winds impact
4. AVHRR winds
5. Summary
ECMWFArctic Imaging Workshop, Copenhagen, 20/21 August 2008
3) Forecast Example
Analysis MODIS
CTL
5 day forecast of 500 hPa geopotential, initialised 15 March 2001, 12 UTC,
3DVAR experiment
ECMWFArctic Imaging Workshop, Copenhagen, 20/21 August 2008
3) Forecast Example: Snowfall
“Analysis” (corresp. 0-12 h forecast) MODIS
CTL
96-108 h forecast of 12h snowfall [mm water equivalent], initialised
15 March 2001, 12 UTC
ECMWFArctic Imaging Workshop, Copenhagen, 20/21 August 2008
3) Forecast Example: Difference tracking
Forecast of 500 hPa geopotential [gpdm] initialised 15 March 2001:
blue: MODIS forecastblack: CTL forecast
red/green: Difference MODIS-CTL (positive/ negative)
ECMWFArctic Imaging Workshop, Copenhagen, 20/21 August 2008
Outline
1. Introduction: Polar winds from MODIS
2. Forecast impact of MODIS winds
3. Forecast example of MODIS winds impact
4. AVHRR winds
5. Summary
ECMWFArctic Imaging Workshop, Copenhagen, 20/21 August 2008
4) AVHRR AMVs
CIMSS-derived polar AMVs from AVHRR from NOAA-15, -16, -17, -18. No WV channel on AVHRR, so IR winds and height assignment only.
Assimilation experiments:
12-hour 4DVAR
Resolution: T511L60 (~40 km, model), T159 (~125 km, analysis)
1 January 2007 – 14 February 2007 (45 forecasts)
Control: Conventional observations + NOAA-18 AMSU-A
AVHRR: As Control, but plus AVHRR winds
AMVs used over land above 400 hPa, over sea/ice above 700 hPa.
MODIS: As Control, but plus MODIS winds
IR AMV usage as for AVHRR;
WV AMVs used over land above 400 hPa, over sea/ice above 550 hPa.
ECMWFArctic Imaging Workshop, Copenhagen, 20/21 August 2008
4) AVHRR AMVs: Coverage Number of used winds (all levels), 1 Jan – 14 Feb 2007:
AVHRR N.Pole AVHRR S.Pole
MODIS N.Pole(IR & WV)
MODIS S.Pole(IR & WV)
ECMWFArctic Imaging Workshop, Copenhagen, 20/21 August 2008
U-component:
V-component:
Std.dev [m/s] Bias [m/s]
Std.dev [m/s] Bias [m/s]
• Statistics for used AMVs over Antarctica for AVHRR and MODIS (IR & WV).
• AVHRR winds show larger departures and worse biases against the FG than MODIS winds.
Obs-FG MODISObs-FG AVHRRObs-AN MODISObs-AN AVHRR
4) AVHRR AMVs
ECMWFArctic Imaging Workshop, Copenhagen, 20/21 August 2008
Normalised
differences in RMS of
48-hour forecast
errors for the 500 hPa
geopotential
(negative = polar
winds “good”)
AVHRR – Control
MODIS – Control
4) AVHRR AMVs
ECMWFArctic Imaging Workshop, Copenhagen, 20/21 August 2008
Outline
1. Introduction: Polar winds from MODIS
2. Forecast impact of MODIS winds
3. Forecast example of MODIS winds impact
4. AVHRR winds
5. Summary
ECMWFArctic Imaging Workshop, Copenhagen, 20/21 August 2008
5) Summary
MODIS winds provide important upper air wind observations over polar regions.
Significant positive forecast impact when first introduced, also outside high-latitudes.
Used by all main NWP centres.
ECMWF plans to re-evaluate MODIS winds impact to provide input to Arctic imager initiatives.
WV winds provide 2/3 of the number of MODIS winds; lack of WV channel on AVHRR means fewer AVHRR winds with poorer quality.
AVHRR winds will provide only limited polar wind coverage after the lifetime of the MODIS instruments.
ECMWFArctic Imaging Workshop, Copenhagen, 20/21 August 2008
Arrival time
4 Z extraction time for early delivery
Timeliness of MODIS AMVs
Direct broadcast MODIS winds
NESDIS MODIS winds
Nu
mb
er
of o
bse
rva
tion
sAccumulated number of data for 21-3 Z early delivery data window vs arrival time
Data window for early delivery analysis