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www.sophus3.com
Auto Market Intelligence
Quarterly Overview UK 2016 Q2
Headline KPIs 2
Brand benchmarks 3
Website performance 4
Social Media 5
Campaign activity 6
Car market 8
Brexit Blues 9
Hypernotes 19
www.sophus3.com AMI Quarterly Overview 2016 Q2 2
Headline KPIs UK 2016 Q2
58.6mvisits to car brand websites
€82mcampaign spend by car brands
648,856 new passenger car registrations
-1.9% 2015
-28% 2015
+0.9% 2015
92 visits / registration
€1.3 spend / visit
€123spend / registration
www.sophus3.com AMI Quarterly Overview 2016 Q2 2
Headline KPIs UK 2016 Q2
58.6mvisits to car brand websites
€82mcampaign spend by car brands
648,856 new passenger car registrations
-1.9% 2015
-28% 2015
+0.9% 2015
92 visits / registration
€1.3 spend / visit
€123spend / registration
AMI Quarterly Overview 2016 Q1www.sophus3.com
Brand benchmarks UK 2016 Q2
1 Audi 5,951k 10.2% 141q € 0.8p € 120p 2 Volkswagen 5,389k 9.2% 103q € 0.8p € 80p 3 Ford 5,042k 8.6% 65p € 1.1p € 69p 4 BMW* 4,193k 7.2% 93q € 1.2p € 111p 5 Vauxhall 3,913k 6.7% 68p € 1.0p € 71p 6 Mercedes 2,630k 4.5% 64p € 0.7p € 43p 7 Toyota 2,484k 4.2% 105q € 2.3q € 243q 8 Kia 2,077k 3.5% 94q € 1.7q € 155q 9 Nissan* 2,070k 3.5% 60p € 2.4q € 141q 10 Renault 1,964k 3.4% 95q € 2.9q € 280 q Average 1,926k 3.2% 92t € 1.3t € 123t 11 Citroën 1,800k 3.1% 110q € 0.2p € 18p 12 Honda 1,780k 3.0% 140q € 0.5p € 67p 13 Peugeot 1,677k 2.9% 70p € 2.8q € 198q 14 Volvo 1,576k 2.7% 142q € 1.3p € 190q 15 Škoda 1,443k 2.5% 66p € 1.1p € 76p 16 Land Rover* 1,434k 2.4% 78p € 0.0p € 2p 17 Jaguar* 1,382k 2.4% 175q € 0.3p € 47p 18 Hyundai 1,314k 2.2% 58p € 2.4q € 139q 19 Mazda 1,296k 2.2% 141q € 1.0p € 145q 20 Seat 1,223k 2.1% 109q € 1.4q € 154q 21 Mini 1,137k 1.9% 64p € 0.4p € 24p 22 Porsche* 1,131k 1.9% 334q € 0.3p € 97p 23 Mitsubishi 975k 1.7% 246q € 2.0q € 503q 24 Lexus 945k 1.6% 307q € 2.6q € 802q 25 Fiat 870k 1.5% 56p € 6.2q € 347q 26 Suzuki 707k 1.2% 84p € 4.0q € 341q 27 Dacia 556k 0.9% 93q € 1.6q € 151q 28 Smart 441k 0.8% 152q € 0.0p € 0p 29 Jeep 436k 0.7% 113q € 5.1q € 581q 30 Alfa Romeo 433k 0.7% 395q € 1.3p € 518q 31 Subaru 321k 0.5% 381q € 0.9p € 335qclick here to see
detailed data for brands
3
p better than averageq worse than average *visits modelled on a com-bination of panel based traffic and brand search activity. All other data from eDataXchange.
Visits Digital Brand during. market Visits Spend Spend quarter share /reg. /visit /reg
www.sophus3.com AMI Quarterly Overview 2016 Q2 4
Website performance UK 2016 Q2
Mobile Tablets PC
39% 17% 44% 2015 +7% -2% -4%
ModelPages Configurator Brochure Dealer TestDrive Request Locator Request
49% 12% 4% 6% 1.1%
59m visits
100%
58.6m website visits
to car brand sites
Online engagement
0%
1%
1%
2%
2%
3%
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Volv
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Seat
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Volk
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Ford
Vaux
hall
Citr
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Hon
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Toyo
ta
Suzu
ki
Rena
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Audi
Mer
cede
s
Hyu
ndai
Peug
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Lexu
s
Weighted percentage of site visitors indicating engagement by going to configurator, dealer locator, brochure request and test drive sections.
www.sophus3.com AMI Quarterly Overview 2016 Q2 5
Automotive social media UK 2016 Q2Facebook Interactions* Q2
% share change interactions Q2 from Q1 All car brands UK 100.0% -11% Audi 20.2% 33% BMW 12.8% -29% Honda 10.0% 480% Saab 9.3% -28% Volvo 6.7% 43% Ford 4.6% -31% Skoda 4.1% 7% Renault 3.6% -23% Toyota 3.4% -27% Lexus 3.0% -50% Kia 2.9% 532% Hyundai 2.7% -23% Suzuki 2.7% -77% Mazda 2.6% -45% Subaru 2.4% 38% Dacia 2.4% -37% Mercedes-Benz 2.1% 108% Jeep 1.6% 29% Mitsubishi 0.9% -13% Alfa 0.8% -51% Seat 0.8% -74% DS 0.4% -44%
YouTube Views Q2 % share change views Q2 from Q1 All car brands UK 100% -11% Nissan 17.6% 63% Honda 11.5% 26% Renault 10.3% 19% Audi 6.6% -56% Volkswagen 6.0% 513% Hyundai 5.3% 1077% Kia 4.9% 168% Toyota 4.5% 9% Peugeot 4.3% 10% Jaguar 3.3% 14% Suzuki 3.0% -70% Lexus 2.4% -48% Dacia 2.3% 1468% Vauxhall 2.3% -23% Volvo 1.9% -53% Smart 1.8% -12% Seat 1.6% -71% BMW 1.6% -51% Mitsubishi 1.6% -55% Mini 1.3% -11% Fiat 1.2% -12% Land Rover 1.1% -78% Citroën 0.8% 12% Škoda 0.7% 15% Subaru 0.6% 29% Jeep 0.3% -85% Ford 0.3% -91% Mazda 0.3% 1% Alfa 0.2% -28% Abarth 0.1% -79% DS 0.1% -92% Mercedes 0.1% -38% Ssangyong 0.0% -95%
537kInteractions-11% Q1
*Interactions are the sum of direct ‘likes’, ‘shares’ and ‘com-ments’ on each brand’s posts during the quarter.
37mViews-11% Q1
https://youtu.be/QTy6XYlYNDE
#1
www.sophus3.com AMI Quarterly Overview 2016 Q2 6
Campaign activity UK 2016 Q2Automotive sector spend Total UK 2016 Q2
€82m(-28% 2015)
Rolling year spend
€439m(-2% rolling year 2015)
Print and TV spend UK 2016 Q2
1 Renault €5.8m Captur €2.9m Range €1.7m Kadjar €1.1m2 Toyota €5.8m Auris €2.m Yaris €1.8m Range €.8m3 Fiat €5.4m 500 €4.9m Range €.3m 500L €.2m4 Ford €5.3m Fiesta €1.7m Focus €1.5m Mondeo €.7m5 Audi €5.m Range €2.1m R8 €2.m Q €.5m6 BMW €5.m I3 €1.6m 7 Series €1.6m Range €.9m7 Nissan €4.9m Qashqai €2.7m X-Trail €1.m Juke €.9m8 Peugeot €4.7m 308 €3.5m 208 €.5m 2008 €.4m9 Volkswagen €4.2m Tiguan €1.8m Golf €1.5m Polo €.6m10 Vauxhall €4.1m Astra €2.m Adam €1.2m sponsorship €.4m11 Kia €3.4m sponsorship €1.7m Sportage €1.2m Cee’d €.5m12 Hyundai €3.2m i20 €1.1m sponsorship €1.m Tucson €.8m13 Suzuki €2.9m Baleno €2.4m Swift €.4m 14 Lexus €2.5m RX €1.6m NX €.8m 15 Jeep €2.2m Renegade €1.8m Cherokee €.3m Range €.1m16 Volvo €2.1m XC90 €1.7m V40 €.3m 17 Mitsubishi €2.m Outlander €1.1m ASX €.8m18 Mercedes €1.8m A Class €.8m C Class €.6m E Class €.4m19 Seat €1.7m Leon €1.m Ibiza €.5m Ateca €.2m20 Škoda €1.7m Fabia €1.m Octavia €.5m Yeti €.1m
www.sophus3.com AMI Quarterly Overview 2016 Q2 7
Campaign activity (continued)Top 20 Campaigns UK Q21 Fiat 500 €4.9m2 Peugeot 308 €3.5m3 Renault Captur €2.9m4 Nissan Qashqai €2.7m5 Suzuki Baleno €2.4m6 Audi Range €2.1m7 Toyota Auris €2.m8 Audi R8 €2.m9 Vauxhall Astra €2.m10 Volkswagen Tiguan €1.8m11 Toyota Yaris €1.8m12 Jeep Renegade €1.8m13 Ford Fiesta €1.7m14 Volvo XC90 €1.7m15 Kia sponsorship €1.7m16 Renault Range €1.7m17 Lexus RX €1.6m18 BMW I3 €1.6m19 BMW 7 Series €1.6m20 Ford Focus €1.5m
Fiat 500 https://youtu.be/Yn5_D97SjBE
Vauxhall Astra https://youtu.be/-yn7SeGEiSo
Volkswagen Tiguan https://youtu.be/YLzC_b1Q5BE
Nissan Qashqai https://youtu.be/hSKYqjvrRdY
www.sophus3.com AMI Quarterly Overview 2016 Q2 8
Car registrations UK 2016 Q2
Top ten models 2016 Q2 Registrations Change +20151 Ford Fiesta 27,506 -15%2 VW Golf 18,149 -4%3 Ford Focus 18,059 -21%4 Vauxhall Corsa 17,777 -15%5 Mini New Mini 15,273 13%6 Nissan Qashqai 14,976 -5%7 Vauxhall Astra 13,642 -9%8 VW Polo 12,838 -9%9 Mercedes C-Class 11,283 5%10 Vauxhall Mokka 9,957 -9%
Top ten movers 2016 Q2 Registrations Change +20151 Tesla Motors 501 268%2 Infiniti 1,041 176%3 Jaguar 7,917 61%4 Bentley 503 55%5 Jeep 3,854 46%6 Smart 2,906 31%7 Ssangyong 959 31%8 Renault 20,611 27%9 Honda 12,740 21%10 Mercedes 41,364 20%
Segment shifts 2016 Q2 Registrations Change +2015 City Car 50,044 -5% Supermini 133,413 -8% Compact 78,591 -9% Compact Exec 26,641 -5% Midsize 34,739 -10% Midsize Exec 33,708 9% Large/Executive 20,986 -1% Luxury 1,991 20% Sports 48,791 0% SUVs 174,915 22% MPVs 41,645 -3%
click here to see detailed data for
brands
UK passenger car registrations 2016 Q2
648,856 (+1% 2015)
Year-to-date
1.42m (+3% 2015)
9
Brexit BluesNavigating the post-referendum
automotive digital landscape
Paul Rutishauser – editor, Auto Market Intelligence
At the start of the year, as we prepared to publish “Eight things that will occupy automotive digital marketers in 2016”, Sophus3 held a roundtable discussion about the concerns that might impact the performance of the car industry in the year ahead. ‘Brexit’ – the possibility of the United Kingdom voluntarily leaving the European Union and Single market – was discussed briefly but dismissed as a highly improbable development. Our analysis was that when it came to the vote, the populist, anti-European sentiments of many, would be trumped by a grudging recognition by the majority of the economic self-interest EU membership preserved.
How wrong we were. The result of the referendum – a decisive vote to leave (52% on a 72% turnout) – changes everything and moves ‘Brexit’ to the top of the list of urgent issues facing the car industry.
10
A shock result, but the smoke is clearingOur view is that in the short- to medium-term the uncertainty the vote has unleashed will be the main negative influence on the UK car market and the wider economy.
There were some immediate jitters following the UK’s decision to quit the European Un-ion: volatility in share prices, a plummeting exchange rate, falls in the property market and early indications of a decline in consum-er confidence and hesitancy in spending on ‘big ticket’ items. The September registration results will provide the first real litmus test of the state of the post-referendum car market. The half-year number plate change makes this the second busiest month for UK car sales. Last year was a record with 462,517 new cars reg-istered, 8.6% up on 2014. Achieving that figure looks unlikely, if only based on the monitoring of ‘dealership chatter’ – the question will be by how far down is this year’s number? The cut off figure of ‘psychological acceptability’ for this September’s new car registrations is probably around the 400k mark, below this the fall would be into double digit percentages and heading towards the gloomy depths of the last decade. The 6th of October, the publication date for the September figures, will be awaited with some trepidation.
Realitycheck:‘Digitalfootfall’ on car websitesAs ever ‘digital’ can provide brands with an early warning of any change in consumer activity and predisposition. Using the data on traffic to car brand websites available through eDataXchange, Sophus3 has looked at total visits to UK sites in the run up to and aftermath of the referendum vote.
The top graph (next page) shows total week-ly visits to car websites – their ‘digital foot-fall’ – from the start of the year until July. This year’s data is shown in blue; weekly traffic for last year shadows this in grey. The pattern of traffic is familiar in the UK, with visits in step with purchase activity, peaking in advance of the March registration plate change which generates the largest num-ber of sales during the year. In 2016 we see healthy growth in weekly traffic relative to the previous year building up to March. However, traffic would appear to have fallen away since the period of the referendum, with visits this year behind those of last year
from June. Whilst this suggests some ‘cooling’ of interest around and following the referen-dum, traffic has hardly fallen through the floor.
If we look at the subset of site visitors that can be termed ‘engaged’ – these are visitors who use a vehicle configurator, or go to the dealer search or test drive request page then there is more of a mixed picture. This traffic – the people who by their activity are more likely to be ‘in market’ for a new car – appears to have held up much better. The numbers of ‘engaged’ weekly visits this year, outstrips last year, even in the period since the referendum – however the difference between the two years is less marked in June and July. Also, if we look at the overall trend, then the decline since the start of the year is more marked in 2016. The question for the industry is of course whether these more ‘committed’ visitors follow through with a purchase or delay it to ‘wait-and-see’?
It is worth noting that during this period the car industry was spending far less on market-ing compared to last year – advertising activity, one of the key drivers of traffic to car brand sites – was down with spend falling -26% in the first half year. That might suggest that the car brands themselves were confident of reaching their sales objectives during the period without piling additional costs into the process (and hence reducing their profits). It will be inter-esting to see if that strategy is continued given the referendum result and threat of the market cooling in the months ahead.
The cut off figure of ‘psychological acceptability’ for this September’s new car registrations is probably around the 400k mark, below this
the fall is well into double digit percentages.
Brexit Blues
11
2015
2016
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28
Week
Visits
Traffic falls relative toits 2015 level in thepost-referedumperiod
5m
1m
3m
2m
4m
23rd JuneReferendum vote
1st Marchnumber plate change
Site traffic buildsahead of ‘16' plate
Weekly digital footfall UK car brands
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25 26 27 28
Week
Visits1st Marchnumber plate change
Engaged trafficremains higher than2015 ...200k
50k
150k
100k
... but downwardtrend is steeper
23rd JuneReferendum vote
All website visits
‘Engaged’ website visits
Registration outcomes
€40m
€30m
€20m
€10m
€0m
Sector ad. spend
J F M A M J
Automotiveadvertising spend was
down in the first half-26%year, reducing one of themain drivers of traffic tobrand websites
400k
300k
200k
100k
0
J F M A M J
New carregistrations in2016 have keptpace with theprevious year.June’s deficit was
just against-1%2015
source: IHS Automotive
source: Ebiquity
sou
rce
: e
Da
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12
Turkey
model
Customs Union
Excludes agriculturalgoods and services
No EU contribution
No say in EU policy
No free movement
Must meet some EUStandards
No tariffs or quotas onindustrial goods
Turkey must applyexternal tariffs as
directed by the EU. Itmust also move toalign its industrial
standards with the EU.
Switzerland
model
European FreeTrade
Association
Excludes sometrade in financial
services
Smallercontribution than
Norway
No say in EU policy
Must accept freemovement
Must meet somestandards
Free of tariffs
A patchwork of 120+bilateral agreements -
threatened by Swisselectorate's opposition
to free movement.
Norway
model
European EconomicArea
Full access toSingle Market
Contribute to EUbudget
No say in EU policy
Must accept freemovement
Must meet EUstandards
Free of tariffs
Per head ofpopulation Norway
pays the EU thesame as the UKcurrently does
Canada
model
ComprehensiveEconomic & TradeAgreement (Ceta)
Excludes somefoodstuffs and
financial services
No EU contribution
No say in EU policy
No free movement
Must meet EUstandards
Some tariffs onautomotive sector.
Quotas on other goods.
Still to be ratified after7 years negotiation.
Exporters must provegoods of Canadian origin
to prevent backdoorcheap imports.
EU
Membership
European Union
Full access toSingle Market
Contribute to EUbudget
Determine policythrough Council ofMinisters and MEPs
Must accept freemovement
Must meet EUstandards
Free of tariffs
Until Brexit, Britainenjoyed 'EU+' with abudget rebate, optout from Schengen
& euro currency, anda promised 'brake'
on migration
WTO
Model
World TradeOrganisation
‘Default’
Tariffs on many goodsand exclusion of
services
No EU contribution
No say in EU policy
No free movement
Products must meet EUStandards
Tariffs including 10%on cars
If no other 'deal'the WTO structure
would stand because theEU and UK are both
members. Nonegotiation required.
Products must meet EUStandards
Possible future relationships between UK and EU post-Brexit
13
Medium term: more of the sameUnfortunately in the medium term the pro-tracted nature of the negotiations – two years of talks to agree exit terms, longer to establish a new trading regime with Europe – ensures that the situation will remain volatile as the un-certainty is prolonged. The progress of negotia-tions and the unfolding reaction of companies, in terms of their investment and location deci-sions, will be watched closely, and nervously by the financial markets and consumers alike.
As numerous commentators have observed, the UK referendum was an ‘election with-out manifestos’: there was no clear vision or agreement on what ‘out’ would practically mean. The options for post-Brexit Britain are shown in the table above. These range from a ‘soft’ exit’ – with the UK continuing to access the single market in a manner similar to that enjoyed by Norway as a member of the Europe-an Economic Area. At the other end is a ‘hard exit’, where there is no agreement in place and UK goods and services would face tariffs or be limited by quotas when sold into the EU.
Given that the new, ‘Brexit means Brexit’ administration of Prime Minister May has yet to define the relationship it hopes to achieve, the car industry has everything left to play for. Where the final settlement lies on the spectrum of possible outcomes will have major conse-
quences for its future health. There are two heavily intertwined concerns.
The first concern will be which regime is most likely to sustain the macroeconomic back-drop of recent recovery that will assure the UK continues to be a significant and growing market for the industry’s products? This is a question of regional and global importance to the industry, not just a national one. The UK market is the second largest in Europe and the seventh globally, therefore any disruption to demand will significantly impact the bottom line of all brands selling into the UK market. The fear is also of ‘contagion’ to other markets: both economic, if a UK downturn triggers a Eu-rope-wide ‘wobble’, and political, with populist anti-EU movements in other countries further destabilising the single market’s future.
Given that the new, ‘Brexit means Brexit’ administration of Prime
Minister May has yet to define the relationship it hopes to achieve, the car industry has everything left to play for. Where the final
settlement lies on the spectrum of possible outcomes will have major
consequences.
Long term the danger is to UK car makersLonger term we expect the main concern for ‘UK automotive p.l.c.’ to be on the manufac-turing side. The UK’s performance in this area, given the lack of a home brand, is remarkable. Britain is the 4th largest car manufacturer in the EU, outputting 1.6 million units a year. (The contribution to the UK is shown below.)
If the negotiations do not deliver tariff and quota free access for UK built cars into Europe then globally focused automotive manufac-turers may move production back within the borders of the Single Market. Change certainly won’t happen overnight – the huge sunk invest-ment and long lead time to restructure manu-facturing processes creates a huge inertia. But the worry is that with having got the referen-dum result so wrong, manufacturers with UK facilities may already be quietly planning for a worst-case scenario of a ‘cold turkey’ Brexit.
Loss of some or all vehicle production would have an adverse knock-on effect across the whole of the UK automotive sector. Within re-gional structures, the perception of the UK as a peripheral or second tier market might become established, isolating local managers within pan-market consultation processes and cor-porate decision making. The European axis of the industry would recentre further inside the triangle between, Paris, Turin, and Wolfsburg.
Brexit Blues
14
814,000
2,500
production VALUE EXPORTS
JOBS PLANTS TOP MODELS
169,000
1.6millioncars from UK factories in 2015
JLR Midlands 490k
Nissan Sunderland 477k
Mini Oxford 201k
Toyota Derby 190k
Honda Swindon 119k
Top 5 brands’ output 2015
Automotiveoutput 2015
UK manufacturingoutput 2015
jobs in vehicle manufacture
automotive sector jobs
30manufacturers
component suppliers
£19billioncontribution to UK economy
58%EU
11%USA
7%China
3%Turkey
1.2million cars
+3.9%
-1.2%
MADE IN UK
Nissan Qashqai
Mini hatch
Toyota Auris
Honda Civic
£21,900average value of an
exported car
Automotive manufacture in the UK by numbers
source: SMMT.
15
Campaigns and messagesJust as vehicle production has become glo-balised so too has vehicle marketing. The extensive launch campaigns for the industry’s newest products are regional in their scope and execution, orchestrated across press, tv and digital media to crescendo into a unified whole.
Yet the raw message from the referendum vote is that a majority of Britons see themselves as an exception from the broader European pro-ject, both politically and culturally. This calls into question the effectiveness of the grandiose pan-European campaigns the car industry has come to favour in recent years, in which the only accommodation to the UK’s difference is to utilise symmetrically reading number plates to allow video footage to be flipped for an audi-ence expecting vehicles to be right hand drive. Much of the rhetoric of these campaigns – a celebratory inclusiveness filmed against the backdrop of ‘partying’ European cities – begins
to look suddenly ‘inappropriate’ for a large section of the UK audience.
Should the economy dip as people move into ‘let’s wait and see’ mode then we should expect a sharp change in message from car brands. Value and affordability, safety and security will be ‘in’; ostentation and entitlement ‘out’. What we can expect is a widespread ‘playing it safe’, with nostalgic yearnings and the soothing application of various ‘Keep calm and carry on’ filters to assuage the audience’s uncertainties. This is a return to the rhetoric of past reces-sions: a retrenchment around concepts of se-curity, the home and family in uncertain times. The danger here will be for brands to lapse into a ‘Volkish’ message of idealised nativist, homogeneity that underpins the Brexit ‘vision’ in some quarters.
Again, ‘digital’ will be key in monitoring au-dience responses to different campaigns and messages and honing effective marketing.
Some immediate thoughts for digital marketersAt a board level – and through its different sector bodies – the UK car industry will need to lobby vociferously for a ‘good’ result over Sin-gle Market access. But for the majority working in the sector how events unfold is beyond their control. The urgent questions for marketers in the car industry in particular is what changes does the result bring, and what will they need to think about to respond effectively and find opportunities in this new landscape?
Here are some initial reactions from a sophus3 / digital automotive marketing perspective about how ‘Brexit’ is likely to change the agen-da.
16
Brand strategyThe tense UK relationship with European identity questions how the OEMs can evolve their brands into this uncertain future. Premi-um manufacturers Audi, BMW and Mercedes have over a number of decades successfully developed and exploited their ‘Germanness’ as a signifier of aloof but desirable engineering excellence. French and Italian brands too have traded on ‘national identity’ in different ways.
Yet the upcoming negotiations over the UK’s relationship to the European Union will be fractious, given their underlying conflictual nature. On past form we can expect a good deal of anti-European, specifically anti-German and anti-French invective to cascade from a xeno-phobic populist press into the public discourse.
Brands obviously cannot reinvent their core identity but they can shift it. Just as Volkswa-gen recently decided to divest itself of the ‘ar-rogant’ byline ‘Das Auto’, its sibling Audi might decide to part from its long association with the ‘Vorsprung durch Technik’ slogan. (And it will probably be some years before we see a brand attempt the layered irony of Citroën’s campaign for the C5 which toyed with national stereotypes. )
Sports sponsorship – as BMW showed through its association with the 2012 London Olympics – is one way a brand can positively align itself with a more benign national sentiment.
Nissan, Toyota and Honda may have different
planning to nail the Union flag to their mast (and tailgate, side trims, facia and steering wheel) will have to consider the very sizable minority revolted by the recent flag waving jin-goism of some within the ‘Exit’ camp. The 48% who voted ‘remain’ might well be turned off by too much ‘British Racing Green’ being applied to every available surface.
‘Budget’ brands with a central proposition around price should also do well if the econ-omy does cloud over. There could be particu-larly interesting times ahead for Hyundai and Kia. Both brands are now established as ‘encroachers’, with strong product offerings in the key SUV and ‘Crossover’ growth segments. Any faltering by the German premiums would allow the Korean brands to gain market share and further their longer term ambition of mov-ing to a ‘near-premium’ status.
problems to negotiate longer term, should their commitment to UK manufacture weaken as a result of an ‘uncoupling’ from the Single Market. Any plant closures or job losses are likely to be portrayed as disloyal malevolence on their part, threatening huge collateral dam-age to their brands. As we have seen recently, defending a car brand’s reputation in the age of social media is a hazardous minefield. Think-ing and planning ahead may be worthwhile?
Brands that could profit in this potentially fevered atmosphere are those that are per-ceived as ‘home grown’ – Ford and Vauxhall, or as ‘iconically British’ – Jaguar, Land Rover and Mini. (All of these examples demonstrate the absurdity of how a ‘national’ identity is acquired – given their ownership is “foreign” in every case.) Yet, in the same way that ‘Euro-pean’ brands will need to tread carefully, those
‘It will probably be some years before we see a brand attempt the layered irony of Citroën’s campaign for the C5 which toyed with national stereotypes.’
https://youtu.be/GMQnPWjK5pE
Brexit Blues
17
Targeting and personalisationWhat the aftermath of the Brexit results re-vealed was that there were divisions in belief running through the fabric of the country that were very different to how they have previ-ously been perceived, both by politicians and marketers. People’s sense of national identity and their core beliefs as revealed by the debate surrounding the vote, showed fractures across age groups, geography, and social class that were both different and deeper than previ-ously understood. It should remind marketers how little they really know, and the dangers of assuming what they know, about the audience they are seeking to engage with.
It has become a commonplace of digital strategy to talk about segmenting audiences in real time so as to reach different people with different messages. The outcome of Brexit reinforces the need for sensitivity in that quest and what a tightrope walk it can be to deliver the ‘correct’ message.
Personalised, one-to-one engagement through digital methods – using active engagement, live chat, and digital showroom technologies – is more pertinent than ever to the automotive sector.
Social mediaAnother outcome from the referendum debate was that it showed, as in the 2015 UK general election, the power of social media in shap-ing public discourse and opinion. Yet it also demonstrated again how closed the social media universe is becoming, with each of us inhabiting a self-validating world where our views and opinions are reinforced rather than challenged.
For marketers it is a reminder that the hoped for audience in social media is often located in hermetic silos that are hard to penetrate. Car brands will continue to struggle with working out the correct content and poise to adopt with-in the social media landscape.
ConclusionWhilst a shock, the Brexit result is probably not the end of civilisation as we know it. The economy will, on past form, recalibrate to adapt to change and find a new equilibrium. The ‘fundamentals’ for our industry will after all remain the same – people need to travel and buy cars; manufacturers want to make those cars and sell them. (We should, however, not underestimate the potential for intense disruption for some individuals and communi-ties locally as that recalibration plays out at a global level.)
With few voices extolling the positives for the industry from a Brexit outcome, for many it does feel the next few years will be spent sutur-ing a self-inflicted wound to, at best, get back to a position of health similar to one we already enjoyed. Everything will depend on the final settlement with the EU that is achieved and which is, and will remain for the next couple of years, the great unknown.
All that those at the coalface of the car industry can do is ‘keep-on-keeping-on’. Digital is cen-tral to those efforts, providing the sensors to listen to and understand the shifts in audience behaviour and interest so that brands can gain understanding and adapt to a changing world. These are indeed, ‘interesting times’. n
Brexit Blues
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It is during times of turbulence – such as we are currently experiencing with the UK’s decision to exit the European Union – that it becomes essen-tial to have an awareness of the wider context, and to avoid fixating on the immediate crisis point, so disregarding the many other factors that also impact the situation, positively or negatively.
Successful businesses know that innovation comes from seeing opportunities within that bigger picture – opportunities that competitors may have missed. This is why savvy OEMs are using more sophisticated digital KPIs to give them insight into the audience for their brands and un-derstand in advance of the competition how that audience is thinking and reacting.
But business leaders have less-and-less time amidst this continuously changing landscape for the reflection required. With eDX, Sophus3 aggre-gates both data and intelligence so that managers within automotive OEMs don’t have to. We deliver a reporting concept that empowers OEMs to re-view their relative position in the market against the key set of performance indicators that are fundamental to their own business. This allows them to concentrate on short- and long-term
opportunities and determine where to focus their organisation’s attention and resources.
The aim of eDX reporting is to share with OEMs the intelligence that enables better reflective leadership. It is designed so that spending just one hour each month understanding digital performance against the market and best-in-class performers enables business leaders to focus resources to gain the greatest advantage. n
Tania Hodgkinson eDX Project Leader at Sophus3
eDataXchange is a collaborative project with over 25 auto brands to collect real digital data, aggregate and derive intelligent KPIs that are shared back to the OEMs for a better understanding on the automotive market, the evolving auto consumer journey trends and each OEM’s performance relative to the whole market.
eDataXchange Intelligence incorporates half a doz-en external data sources for a more comprehensive, balanced and insightful perspective.
eDataXchange:beyondsimple volume-based benchmarking
Brexit Blues
www.sophus3.com AMI Quarterly Overview 2016 Q2 19
Brexit falloutPicking losers“How different industries are exposed to the turmoil in Britain.” The Economist http://econ.st/2azXCNt
5 top reasons ‘Brexit’ is roiling the auto industryThe impact on the US car industry. Detroit Free Press / USA TODAY http://usat.ly/2arWdYR
UK car factories face uncertain future after Brexit
“Plants run by Nissan, Honda and Toyota most at risk of closure after UK leaves EU, says new report.” FT.com http://on.ft.com/2aIeX7z
Brexit Report: Legal ImplicationsThe possible future changes to Employment law and the ‘Block Exemption’ that could im-pact the industry’s ‘bread and butter’. IGA http://bit.ly/2aLtPTw
Hypernotes
Behind Volkswagen Settlement, Speed and Compromise“The settlement, though painful to Volkswagen, could easily have taken much longer and cost billions of dollars more.” New York Times http://nyti.ms/2aPhRIw
New BMW Connected launching in August in selected markets“Using a flexible platform called the Open Mobility Cloud as a basis, BMW Connected seamlessly integrates the vehicle into the user’s digital life via multiple touchpoints, such as an iPhone or Apple Watch.” BMWBLOG http://bit.ly/2aM0WGX
Jaguar Land Rover to embark on retail revolution“A programme of upgrading more than 230 showrooms to stylish, clean-looking, ultra-mod-ern ‘retail temples’ – with marked similarities to Apple Stores – is currently under way.” http://bit.ly/2aMCjZk
Carwow appoints legal experts to con-test BMW dealer ban“Carwow has appointed legal representatives to lift a BMW UK ban on its dealers use of the online market place’s services.” AM online http://bit.ly/2aO5wS8
This Is the Enormous Gigafactory, Where Tesla Will Build Its Future
Wired http://bit.ly/2axnxTg
Apple Has Enough Cash to Buy the Big Three Car Companies“There’s a major power imbalance between Silicon Valley and Detroit.” Fortune http://for.tn/2atWCKQ
Self driving car ethics...A comic take on autonomous vehicles from the ‘Saturday Morning Breakfast Cereal’. http://bit.ly/2aRzerA
Links to some recent automotive and digital news stories
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tCar markettBrand benchmarks
Visits Registrations Ad Spend 2016 Q2 2015 Q2 2016 Q2 2015 Q2 2016 Q2 2015 Q2
Alfa Romeo 433,000 349,835 23.8% 1,097 1,174 -6.6% 568,136 842,478 -32.6%
Audi 5,951,351 5,409,060 10.0% 42,141 41,090 2.6% 5,036,378 3,967,440 26.9%
BMW 4,193,000 4,680,000 -10.4% 45,115 40,339 11.8% 5,013,802 5,032,394 -0.4%
Citroën 1,800,376 1,866,462 -3.5% 16,426 16,107 2.0% 288,105 2,515,557 -88.5%
Dacia 555,653 634,389 -12.4% 5,992 6,934 -13.6% 905,267 787,553 14.9%
Fiat 869,728 724,478 20.0% 15,637 15,177 3.0% 5,422,587 10,127,547 -46.5%
Ford 5,042,119 4,548,117 10.9% 77,295 82,346 -6.1% 5,315,349 5,686,959 -6.5%
Honda 1,779,570 2,312,586 -23.0% 12,740 10,489 21.5% 857,121 2,479,856 -65.4%
Hyundai 1,313,884 1,272,000 3.3% 22,709 21,877 3.8% 3,151,718 6,547,604 -51.9%
Jaguar 1,382,000 1,525,000 -0 7,917 4,930 60.6% 372,206 1,727,317 -78.5%
Jeep 436,494 432,650 0.9% 3,854 2,632 46.4% 2,239,296 3,202,632 -30.1%
Kia 2,076,777 1,681,583 23.5% 22,181 19,983 11.0% 3,429,673 1,918,072 78.8%
Land Rover 1,434,000 1,951,000 -26.5% 18,441 15,559 18.5% 30,270 329,520 -90.8%
Lexus 944,970 706,724 33.7% 3,079 3,243 -5.1% 2,468,674 834,321 195.9%
Mazda 1,295,741 1,507,923 -14.1% 9,190 8,818 4.2% 1,328,027 1,957,172 -32.1%
Mercedes 2,630,319 4,225,000 -37.7% 41,364 34,492 19.9% 1,772,120 4,493,216 -60.6%
Mini 1,137,000 1,237,000 -8.1% 17,785 16,343 8.8% 419,445 424,047 -1.1%
Mitsubishi 975,216 1,057,964 -7.8% 3,959 5,220 -24.2% 1,990,206 2,358,653 -15.6%
Nissan 2,070,000 2,174,000 -4.8% 34,739 37,176 -6.6% 4,887,014 4,152,943 17.7%
Peugeot 1,676,531 1,702,199 -1.5% 23,785 24,424 -2.6% 4,715,093 6,544,277 -28.0%
Porsche 1,131,000 1,319,000 -14.3% 3,386 3,462 -2.2% 328,118 1,612,703 -79.7%
Renault 1,964,181 1,645,833 19.3% 20,611 16,247 26.9% 5,772,554 10,171,690 -43.2%
Seat 1,222,656 1,183,002 3.4% 11,244 13,169 -14.6% 1,734,286 2,893,655 -40.1%
Škoda 1,442,699 1,546,201 -6.7% 21,811 20,737 5.2% 1,658,784 3,511,609 -52.8%
Smart 441,319 378,000 16.8% 2,906 2,210 31.5% - 28,740 -100.0%
Subaru 320,845 292,486 9.7% 843 717 17.6% 282,656 774,652 -63.5%
Suzuki 707,045 461,500 53.2% 8,399 7,497 12.0% 2,861,294 4,960,416 -42.3%
Toyota 2,483,643 2,174,523 14.2% 23,716 23,735 -0.1% 5,753,385 6,881,313 -16.4%
Vauxhall 3,913,143 3,909,144 0.1% 57,915 67,258 -13.9% 4,089,056 6,565,578 -37.7%
Volkswagen 5,389,144 5,535,180 -2.6% 52,123 59,676 -12.7% 4,169,232 1,586,247 162.8%
Volvo 1,576,429 1,252,721 25.8% 11,121 10,565 5.3% 2,111,178 4,343,402 -51.4%
Data
Advertising spend data is supplied by Ebiquity. Campaign spend for each brand/product is an aggregation of the ‘rate card’ cost for ad-vertisements tracked across each medium. It does not neces-sarily represent the actual spend by each brand as discounts from these rates may have been negotiated. Spend values are cal-culated and displayed in euros.
Registrations data is supplied by IHS Automotive and is compiled from figures supplied by the relevant national gov-ernmental agencies.
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Sophus3 is at the forefront of designing and applying technology and processes that mon-itor consumer behavior in the online sector.
Our key strength lies in our ability to identify and gather the right data and information, combined with advanced and objective anal-ysis. We provide expert services and support to companies in areas where they don’t always have in-house expertise.
eDataXchange (eDX) is a strategic sector and country collaborative project that moni-tors consumer behaviour across websites. It acts as a digital GPS of a car brand’s position in the market place and enables participants to set targets, determine which digital invest-ments are changing their market position and how.
Auto Market Intelligence (AMI) is so-phus3’s quarterly journal of ideas and analysis aimed at e-business professionals working in, or supporting, the automotive sector. The journal focuses on innovation and developments that are impacting the sector, as well as providing a detailed review of on-going brand performance.
www.sophus3.com
If you have any questions or comments we would be happy to respond if you email: [email protected]
Advertising spend data is supplied by Ebiquity.
Registrations data is supplied by IHS Automotive.
© Copyright 2016 sophus3 ltd. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced in any form or by any electronic or mechanical means, including information storage and retrieval systems, without written permission from the publisher.
Published by: sophus3 ltd. Registered Office: Fairmile, Silwood Close, Ascot, Berkshire, SL5 7DX, UK, Registra-tion Number: 432136
