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Richard Suttmeier is the Chief Market Strategist at
www.ValuEngine.com.ValuEngine is a fundamentally-based quant
research firm in Princeton, NJ. ValuEngine
covers over 5,000 stocks every day.
A variety of newsletters and portfolios containing Suttmeier's
detailed research, stock picks,and commentary can be found
HERE.
Suttmeier's Four in Four video and ForexTV Markets Review can be
watched on the webHERE.
Januar y 14, 2010 Beige Book Shows Reluctant Recovery
The Beige Book reflects Status Quo. Retail Sales and Jobless
Claims key ninth round of theTitle Bout between the Bull and the
Bear. ValuEngine has released our monthly update to theValuEngine
List of Problem Banks. The Dow continues higher as the bear hopes
for a knockout.
Beige Book Reflects Continued Concerns on Housing and
Banking
Residential construction remained at low levels. Commercial real
estate remains weak with risingvacancy rates and falling rents.
Loan demand continued to decline or remained weak, while
creditquality continued to deteriorate. This clearly states that
The Great Credit Crunch continues. Thelabor market remained
generally weak with modest wage increases appearing in just a few
Districts.This is a sign that Initial Jobless Claims will remain
above the Recessionary 350,000 threshold.
The positive spin that the economy is slowly improving is being
dragged by continued weakeninghousing and banking sectors and
without job creation on Main Street. Since the Beige Book was
compiled before the report of the increased Trade Deficit,
economists will likely cut their estimates forQ4 economic
growth.
Chart Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
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Retail Sales may not be as strong as gossiped in the Beige Book
as the ICSE reported sales down 3%last week from the prior week.
The story is if its not on sale the store misses the sale. The
ABCConsumer Comfort Index dropped 6 points to -47 last week, one of
the steepest one-week declines in
25 years. Only 24% are considering buying things and just 9%
rate the economy positively.
The Retail HOLDRS Trust (RTH) peaked at 96.25 on December 4th.
This ETF has declining MOJOand begins the day up 0.5% for the first
eight days of 2010. This mornings Retail Sales report forDecember
is expected to show a rise of 0.6%. The key level to hold on
weakness is my monthlysupport at $93.12.
At ValuEngine we just released our latest report covering
Community and Regional Banks.
I consider myself as an expert on the banking system, and I have
been focusing on banking and creditcrisis for several years now. In
fact, I predicted the current difficulties beginning in April 2006.
Everyquarter I dissect the FDIC Quarterly Banking profile, combines
it with VE's powerful quant tools, add
the FDIC loan exposures and collate the info into an exhaustive
report on the state of the US bankingsystem.
There are currently 759 publicly traded FDIC insured financial
institutions overexposed to CD Loans orNonfarm Non-Residential Real
Estate loans as per the FDIC's own guidelines.
As of January 8, 2010, there were 221 publicly traded banks
overexposed to C&D and/or CRE loans inthe ValuEngine database
with full data coverage. Of these overexposed banks, 82 were rated
1-Engine Strong Sells, 73 were rated 2-Engine Sellsall of which are
predicted to under perform themarkets as a whole, 63 were rated
3-Engine Holdswhich are predicted to roughly match the
overallmarket, 3 were rated a 4-Engine Buy, and none held our
highest rating of 5-Engine Strong Buywith the 4 and 5-Engine stocks
predicted to out perform the overall market.
This means that 155 banks are rated Sell or Strong Sell that are
also overexposed to C&D and/or CREloans. There are 198
overexposed institutions with only partial ValuEngine coverage and
thus thosebanks have no rating--these are included in the
ValuEngine List of Problem Banks. There are 341additional
institutions carrying C&D and/or CRE loans in excess of the
FDIC guidelines that do notappear in the ValuEngine database. These
are also listed in the report following the VE List of
ProblemBanks.
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Chart Courtesy of Thomson / Reuters
The Bull leads the Bear in the Dow Title Bout. The score stands
at 7 to 1 favoring the Bull. Myannual support is 10,379 with weekly
pivot at 10,619, and monthly and annual resistances at 10,997and
11,235. A knock out bunch by the Bear requires a weekly close below
10,379.
Send me your comments and questions to [email protected]. For
more information on ourproducts and services visit
www.ValuEngine.com
Thats todays Four in Four. Have a great day.
Check out the latest Forex TVs Markets Review Live each day at
1:30 PM.
http://www.forextv.com/Forex/custom/LiveVideo/Player.jsp
Richard SuttmeierChief Market Strategistwww.ValuEngine.com(800)
381-5576
As Chief Market Strategist at ValuEngine Inc, my research is
published regularly on the website www.ValuEngine.com. Ihave daily,
weekly, monthly, and quarterly newsletters available that track a
variety of equity and other data parameters aswell as my most
up-to-date analysis of world markets. My newest products include a
weekly ETF newsletter as well as theValuTrader Model Portfolio
newsletter. I hope that you will go to www.ValuEngine.com and
review some of the sampleissues of my research.
I Hold No Positions in the Stocks I Cover.
