By Innovative Research Job Brüggen Eurocontrol CARE Innovation workshop Brussels 14 & 15 March 2001

by

Innovative Research

Job Brüggen

Eurocontrol CARE Innovation workshopBrussels

14 & 15 March 2001

CARE Innovative workshop 2

Examples of innovative research


Archimedes287BC - 212BC

=3.1415926535...

The Palimsest


Leonardo da Vinci1452 - 1519

Multi-faceted:– artist– inventor– scientist


Galileo1564 - 1642

While in a cathedral in Pisa, he noticed that a chandelier was swinging with the same period as timed by his pulse, regardless of its amplitude.


Sir Isaac Newton,1642 - 1727

1687: Philosophiae Naturalis Principia Mathematica

Laws of inertia, action and reaction, and acceleration proportional to force.New scientific philosophy which came to replace Cartesianism.Applications of his dynamics, including an explanation for tides and a theory of lunar motion.


Thomas Alva Edison 1847 - 1931

Best known for his inventions of electric light and the phonograph

Famous quotes:

“Genius is hard work, stick-to-itiveness, and common sense”.

“Genius is one percent inspiration and 99 percent perspiration”

“Disasters are learning opportunities”


Edison claimed 1093 patents– 1868: electrographic vote recorder– 1869: printing telegraph– 1872: galvanic batteries– 1878: speaking telephones– 1878: electric light– 1880: incandescent electric lamp– 1880: magneto or dynamic electric machine– 1881: electric motor– 1881: Locomotive for Electric Railways– 1882: turn-table for electric railways– 1886: railway signaling– 1887: phonograph– 1891: Kinetographic Camera– 1892: Automobiles– 1900: Apparatus for Breaking Rock– 1905: Pocket-Filling Machine– 1912: Alternating-Current-Rectifying System– 1919: Projectiles– 1927: Extraction of Rubber from Plants


A full scale inventor

1867: Edison moves to 1867: Edison moves to Menlo Park, New Jersey, Menlo Park, New Jersey, and establishes his first and establishes his first full-scale industrial full-scale industrial research laboratory, research laboratory, combining electrical and combining electrical and chemical laboratories chemical laboratories with an experimental with an experimental machine shopmachine shop


Orville and Wilbur Wright

Powered flight made possible in 1903


Albert Einstein1879 - 1955

E = mc2

“Innovation is not the product of logical thought, even though the final product is tied to a logical structure”


Sir Alexander Fleming1881 - 1955

His classical case of discovery in 1928 of penicillin, the “miracle drug”

Penicillin became extremely useful by the work of Florey and Chain in 1940 for the mass production of penicillin, used in World War II.


Brattain, Bardeen & Schockley

1947: invention of the bi-polar transistor (TRANSfer resISTOR)


Innovation involves hard labor

They combined ingredients which in many instances were already available. This meant hard work and studying what had been done by others.

No “trial and error” but “theme and variation”

Their inventions were not a God-given flash of insight on a lazy afternoon. It was the result of years of study and preparations that made them see the apparently obvious.

Perseverance and stamina were key ingredients


Innovation lives by lines of succession

Da Vinci pointed the way towards the principles of a helicopter, but Von Baumhauer discovered how to successfully control the helicopter (1930).

Fleming discovered penicillin in 1928, but Florey and Chain (1940) knew how to produce it on an industrial basis.

Einstein build on theorems of Newton, and he in turn on Archimedes


Sometimes (but not always!) adverse circumstances to innovation

Thick and complete proposals

Strict planning

progress reports

high expectations

budget cuts


The innovation process itself is relatively simple, yet needs to be turned ‘ON’

Good thinking, hard work

and perseverance

Urgent societal need, or other crisis (e.g. war)

Available technology

Knowledge from other technologyfields

Good analysisof problem

delaysEnvironment

Money


2500

3500

4500

5500

6500

7500

8500

1990

1991

1992

1993

1994

1995

1996

1997

1998

1999

2000

2001

2002

Actual Traffic Traffic Forecast (High)

Traffic Forecast (Medium) Traffic Forecast (Low)

Fli

gh

ts (

tho

us

an

ds

)

Problem Statement:Traffic Growth vs Forecast


Air Traffic Delays

Source: PRR3


The safety wall (a.k.a the capacity wall)

Source: PRR3


Safety is already becoming a problem

Source: PRR3


We know WHAT caused the delay

Source: PRR3


2000

We know WHERE the delay was


What is being done to cope?Eurocontrol ATM 2000+ strategy on R&D

7.9. Research and Development

ATM Research and Development (R&D) must focus its activities on supporting the Strategy. s major areas of development concerning new procedures and new technologies, as well as the need to validate the overall system and concept and their individual components.ATM R&D should place greater emphasis on applications that improve ATM operations, rather than on developing CNS technologies.ATM R&D and validation will concentrate on supporting the Strategy measures with the primary focus on improving ATM services rather than new CNS systems. ATM R&D related activities, including their funding, should be co-ordinated and directed at European level by an R&D Strategy which supports the Strategy within the framework of the revised Convention, and takes into account the accession of the European Community to the Eurocontrol Convention. Arrangements should be put in place for co-operation with European and international R&D activities.The R&D Strategy should also encompass:Clear identification of the technical and human factor issues and the efforts and time needed to solve them; Efficient use of resources through collaborative projects; Effective exchange of appropriate R&D information; Involvement of Air Navigation Service providers, Manufacturing Industry, Airports and/or Airspace Users from an early stage; Validation and quantification of related economic benefits to facilitate economic analysis.


What is being done to cope?EU: Vision 2020: the research agenda

Innovative ATM operational concepts Advanced, intelligent and integrated ATM

ground, airborne and space systems Rotorcraft integration in ATM systems High density traffic systems capability in

all weather conditions Airport capacity and advanced

management Increased use of airspace capacity

CARE Innovative workshop 26Source: Airbus

Forecasted World Air Travel Growth

CARE Innovative workshop 27Source: Eurocontrol

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

19751980198519901995200020052010

Actual Traffic

Traffic Forecast (High)

Traffic Forecast (Medium)

Traffic Forecast (Low)

Mo

vem

en

ts (

mill

ion

s)European Air Traffic DevelopmentEuropean Air Traffic Development

(Million IFR Flights per year)(Million IFR Flights per year)


5

1997 2000

2010 2020

DIVISION DED 4 - 4/11/97

7.0 Mio Flights 8.0 Mio Flights

11.9 Mio Flights 15.8 Mio Flights

Flights 150 or more

Flights 100 to 150

Flights 50 to 100

Traffic Growth


Projections for tomorrow

Civil traffic growth is consistently predicted at about 5% per year.

Total number of airplanes globally will nearly double the next twenty years.

The developed hub and spoke system will remain in place and be further developed.

Larger aircraft will be deployed along a larger number of routes.

Aircraft will generally fly longer stretches


What is being done to cope?Plans on short and medium term

RVSM

BRNAV

Civil Military airspace integration

Link 2000

Enhanced surveillance

ATC tools


Advanced ATM tools in TMAAdvanced ATM tools in TMA


Do we think this is enough?

In 2015, will air traffic be handled – safely– economically– efficiently?

Are the ingredients we now have, sufficient?

Is the new ATM system for 2015 based on what we can see now?


Are we going to achieve these goals?(Eurocontrol ATM targets)

Source:

Eatchip Targets


Consolidation of R&D? Start implementation?

We seem to have a hard time implementing the R&D results today. The lead times for implementation are loooooong!

Should we consolidate our research efforts and build upon what we have now? Start implementation? Work close with industry? Agree on standards?

A lot of the R&D work today has NOTHING to do with research, but is at best development.

WHAT ARE WE GOING TO DO AFTER 2015?


Phases of Industrial Evolution

Fluid to Transitional to Specific

0

5

10

15

20

25

1900 1910 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

Product innovation

Process innovation

Slide copied from presentation by J-M Garot, EEC, november 2000

Innov

ation

Consolidation


The suggestion is that ATM is now into the specific phase

Whilst aerospace may be in the ‘specific phase’, ATM certainly is not.

Much of the product innovation has been exactly at the product level, but hardly at the operations level.

Without some serious innovative work, delays will rocket and physically stop air transport growth in core ECAC area.

ATM is not ready for consolidation yet: new ingredients must be inserted for it to cope with growth.


consolidation

Beside product technologyOPERATIONS need to be innovated,

Technology Operations

inno

vatio

n

innov

ation

consolidation


2000 2005 2010 2015

RVSM

One AirspaceCivil/Military

Link 2000

Enh. Surv.

ATC tools

Cost of Lack of Growth

ADS-B

ASAS

Delegation of

Separation

Autonomous Aircraft

Operations

CertificationPre-operational TrialsR&D

Operational Concept

Functionalities

Systems

USA - EUR Business Case?

€ 600m

€ 2.0 bn

€ 4.0 bn

Flt. Efficiency

Delays

User Charges

Avionics

The conceptual agenda

Slide copied from presentation by P.Hogge, ATC Maastricht 2001


How fertile are the grounds?

Available technology– Secure and reliable datalink (high speed?)– Advanced FMS– Autonomous aircraft and 4D ATM concept(s)– Schedulers and Sequencers and ATC tools– High resolution displays– Powerful information and processing

technology

Good analysis of the problem

Money

Urgent societal needs

IT MUST BE A DREAM PROBLEMTO WORK ON!


To conclude

Innovation is NOT hoping for the Eureka! whilst doing nothing: it is hard work that builds upon the innovations of others.

In ATM, there is a consistent history for being too late.

TODAY’s problems are just barely tackled by R&D today

The era 2010 - 2015 will be facing serious difficulties to cope with demand: A major effort is still to be undertaken.

The era > 2015 is completely unexplored territory yet.

We must innovate the operations rather than the products.


To Work!

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Documents

By Innovative Research Job Brüggen Eurocontrol CARE Innovation workshop Brussels 14 & 15 March 2001