CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION d n Joint Committee on Preparing California for The 21 st Century August 26, 2003 Terry Surles & George Simons California

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSIONdn

Joint Committee on Preparing California for The 21st Century

August 26, 2003

Terry Surles & George Simons

California Energy Commission


Policy and RD&D Must be Linked in Order to Provide Benefits to the State

Electricity

RelatedState Activities CollaborationsCalifornia

Issues


RD&D Activities Should Connect with Synergistic State Regulatory, Incentive,

and Subsidy Programs

Buildings – Titles 20 and 24 Renewables – Renewable portfolio standard (RPS) Environmentally-Preferred Advanced Generation –

2007 ARB rules on distributed generation emissions Energy Systems Integration – CPUC/CEC initiatives in

demand response/dynamic pricing, distributed energy resources, and transmission and distribution systems

Environmental – Impacts/opportunities related to RPS, state initiatives (AB 1493) in climate change


$ External Funding Into State (in $ Millions)

020406080

100120


PIER vs. GRI Early Commercialization Success

PIER vs. GRI Early Commercialization Success

0

5

10

15

20

25

1 2 3 4 5

Year into Program (0=1977 for GRI, 1997 for PIER)

Cu

mu

lati

ve

Nu

mb

er

of

Co

mm

erc

iali

zed

Pro

du

cts

GRI PIER


CEC R&DD for Improving Efficiency and Developing Distributed Resources

also Addresses Climate Change

EfficiencyBtuGSP

<

Carbon Management

Decarbonization CO2

BtuCO2 atm

CO2 produced< <

Sequestration


United States Refrigerator Use (Actual) And Estimated Household Standby Use v. Time

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

1800

2000

1947

1949

1951

1953

1955

1957

1959

1961

1963

1965

1967

1969

1971

1973

1975

1977

1979

1981

1983

1985

1987

1989

1991

1993

1995

1997

1999

2001

2003

2005

2007

2009

Ave

rage

En

ergy

Use

per

Un

it S

old

(k

Wh

per

yea

r)

Refrigerator Use per Unit

1978 Cal Standard

1990 Federal Standard

1987 Cal Standard

1980 Cal Standard

1993 Federal Standard 2001 Federal

Standard

Estimated Standby Power (per house)


0

10

20

30

40

50

60

at 1974 efficiency at 2001 efficiency

GW

capacity savedcapacity needed

Electricity Generating Capacity for 150 Million Refrigerators + Freezers in the US


Existing Renewable Energy in California

2626

1737

1379

936383

13456

3667

7951

6044860

Capacity (MWs)

~ 7000 MW total

Generated Electricity (GWhrs)

~ 33,000 GWhr/yr total

Geothermal

Wind

Small Hydro

Biomass/MSW

Solar


Goals for Future Renewable Development

Mandated Goals RPS: 20% by 2017 EAP: 20% by 2010

~ 7000 MW and 40,000 GWhrs/yr of new renewables in 7 to 14 years

Underlying Goals Addressing CA’s electricity needs Generating significant societal benefits (non-energy) Regaining a leadership role


Issues Facing CA Renewables Development

Typically utility-scale

Some are intermittentRisk of losing “green is

clean” tag

Higher cost than conventional options

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

90

100

1980 1990 2000

PVSolar Thermal

Geothermal

Wind

Biomass

CO

E (

cent

s/kw

hr)


Renewables in California:A Rich Diversity

Geothermal

Small HydroSolar

Wind Biomass/MSW


PIER Renewables: An Integrated Renewables Future

Renewables integrated with efficiency, metering to help meet demand at the source; enhance customer choices

Demand Center Systems

Strategic and “Super-Class” Bulk Systems

Next generation “super-class”

renewables strategically located to help grid reliability &

security

Interconnected DG: Minigrids

Diverse generation systems integrated among demand centers with dynamic controls and storage to meet localized capacity and reduce congestion


Moving Towards the Preferred Future

Developing a realizable roadmap Up-to-date inventory of CA’s renewables Matching renewables to needs/opportunities

Advancing preferred renewable technologies Focus on California’s needs

Facilitating responsive industries Collaborative approaches


More accurate and up-to-date Wind Assessment Example

200 x 200 meter grid Wind speeds and power

Pending or Underway: Solar Biomass Ocean Hydro

Updating California’s Renewable Resources: Wind Example


Identifying California’s Electricity Needs

Completed to date 2003, 2005, 2007

Still to run 2009, 2011, 2013, 2015 & 2017

Status Being reviewed internally Need to integrate out-of-state

transmission studies Localized “case studies”

pending


Wind power map with T&D system

Integrating Renewable Assessments and Power Flows (Wind Example)

Wind power mapWind power map with T&D system and “hot spots”


Specific Example: CA Wind Potential (70m)

Technical Filters (excluded areas):*Resource > 300 W/m 2

Topography grade > 20%Bodies of WaterForested AreasUrban AreasState/National Parks & MonumentsOthers (Natural Reserves)

Gross Wind Potential: 295,187 MWTechnical Potential*: 99,945 MW

Current Installed: 1,752 MWOpportunity: 98,193 MW


High

Medium

WTLR 2005 - 500kV

Wind Analysis – Looking at Capacity Needs and Resource Potential

Other Scenarios • Wind/hydro• Wind/solar• DG/small wind • Urban penetration


Forest Wildfire Threat Areas

Forest Biomass, Bio Power Plants and T&D System

Integrating Renewable Assessments, Power Flows and Demographics

Forest Biomass & Bio Power Plants


Developing Tomorrow’s Renewable Technologies

Reducing geothermal

exploration costs

Making lower cost and more reliable

wind

Integrating and lowering costs of

solar

Developing biomass DG solutions


Collaborative Approach Tying Technology Development to CA Needs

Municipal utility alliances: Focused on developing renewables that meet municipal utility

electricity needs (SMUD, Hetch Hetchy/PRP) Local government partnerships:

Using local renewable resources to address local environmental and growth issues (Yolo, San Francisco, San Diego)

Industry connections: Working with industry leaders with market savvy, assets and

vision (PowerLight, GE, AstroPower, Clipper, Western United Dairymen)

Coordination with other government programs: Leveraging expertise and funding to help expedite

development of effective renewable technologies (NREL, CARB, CIWMB, EPA)


Possible Benefits From Achieving the RPS Goal

Benefits Wind Geothermal Biomass Solar

Small Hydro

Capacity (MW)

6730 2950 2520 800 1000

Generation (GWhr/yr)

19,300 22,200 14,600 2000 4800

Avoided Emissions (tpy)

9.6 million

14.3 million 8.5 million

1.2 million

3.8 million

State and Local Taxes

$340 million

$400 million $240 million

$120 million

$240 million

Employment (jobs) 4900 5900 3900 800 1100


California Will be Well-Served by The Development Of An Integrated, Flexible, and Comprehensive Plan That Incorporates

Externalities with Energy Supply and Demand

Complex system with lack of systems perspective

Energy is only, intermittently, a big deal “Rube Goldberg” approach to energy policy Market is unable to address all societally or

politically acceptable externalities New technologies do not address Joe

Bagadonitz needs


President’s Commission on Critical Infrastructure Protection Highlights Vulnerabilities and Interdependencies

Electricity

TransportationWaterNatural Gas


Driving to a Sustainable Future:The “E”s are Linked

Environment Energy Economics Equity Education

Documents

CALIFORNIA ENERGY COMMISSION d n Joint Committee on Preparing California for The 21 st Century August 26, 2003 Terry Surles & George Simons California