1. Carbon Credit: 2 31. 52. 113. CERs: 224. 325. 386. 497. 59 63 64

2. : (Kyoto Protocol) (Carbon Exchange Market) (Broker) (Intermediary) Recent Development in Carbon Trading Market: Implications for Thailands Financial Market 24 2552 National Graduate Institute for Policy Studies () 30 2552 2

3. (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change: UNFCCC) (Kyoto Protocol) .. 2555 2533 5.2 3 1) (Annex 1) 2) Annex 1 3) Annex 1 2 2555 2550 64,035 2020 3 UNFCCC UNFCCC 2 3

4. 864,069 551 2550 3 CDM () () 2552 (Option) Swap / 4

5. 1 1.1 (Climate Change) (Greenhouse Effect) (Global Warming) (IntergovernmentalPanel on Climate Change) 1 21 1.4 5.8 0.09 -0.88 1-1 21 - - - - - 2050 - 2 - 1 - - - - 1 5 - : (http://www.onep.go.th/CDM/cmc_today.html) 1 (http://www.onep.go.th/CDM/cmc_today.html)2 Top economist talks up risks of climate inaction(http://news.yahoo.com/s/afp/20081027/sc_afp/financebankingenvironmenthongkongstern) 5

6. .. 2535 (United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change: UNFCCC) (Greenhouse Gas) 2 1) Annex 1 OECD (Organization for Economic Co- Operation and Development) (Economic inTransition: EIT) 3 2) Non-Annex 1 2 191 Annex 1 41 Non-Annex 1 150 (anthropogenic greenhouse gas emission) 6 1) (CO2) .. 2) (CH4) 2540 3) (N20) 4) (HFC) (Kyoto Protocol) 5) (PFC) .. 2555 6) (SF6) Annex 1 4 5.2 .. 2533 5 4 2533 6 8 (National Inventories) 3 , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , , 23 () Annex 2 4 5 1 6

7. Non-Annex 1 (National Inventories) 1.2 Annex 1 o (Emission Trading: ET) Annex 1 Assigned Amount Units AAUs Annex 1 o (Joint Implementation JI) Annex 1 EIT Emission Reduction Units ERUs UNFCCC o (Clean Development Mechanism CDM) Annex 1 Non Annex 1 Non Annex 1 UNFCCC Certified Emission Reductions CERs 7

8. 1.3 Annex 1 1-1 Annex 1 6 2548 2533 5 2.8 18.2 EIT 35.2 11.0 2.4 : 1 Tg Teragram 1 : National greenhouse gas inventory data for the period 19902005, UNFCCC 2547 27.8 22 18 6 Netherlands Environmental Assessment Agency (PBL) 7 2550 3 6 7 http://www.mnp.nl/en/service/pressreleases/2008/20080613ChinacontributingtwothirdstoincreaseinCO2emissions.html 8

9. 24 21 15 12 8 6 1.4 2555 1 12 2551 2555 COP14 (The 14th Session of the Conference of the Parties to the Climate Change Convention) Poznan COP15 2552 2 1) 2) (Emerging Market Nations) 8 2553 2533 7 40.6 Annex 1 30 45 8 All eyes on emerging nations / CO2 emission cuts hinge on countries classification, cooperation , Nov. 12, 08http://www.yomiuri.co.jp/dy/national/20081112TDY04302.htm 9

10. G-8 9 2551 50 2593 2563 2573 20 2563 (GDP per Capita) (Energy Efficiency Ratios) (Industrially Advanced Nations) 2552 2593 2533 80 COP14 2 Adaptation Fund CDM UNFCCC 9 G-8 (Group of Eight) 10

11. 2 2.1 (ET) (JI) (CDM) Cap and Trade (Carbon Market) 2-1 Carbon Dioxide Equivalent (CO2e) () 1. (CO2) 1 2. (CH4) 21 (Global 3. (N2O) 310 Warming Potential: GWP) 4. (HFCs) 140 - 11,700 5. (PFCs) 6,500 - 9,200 6. (SF6) 23,900 2-1 : GWP 21 CO2e 1 21 1 1 CO2e ET JI CDM 11

12. 2.2 2 1) 2) (Carbon Exchange Market) 2 (Allowances) AAUs (Project Based) JI (ERUs) CDM (CERs) 2550 AAUs 80 50.4 64.0 AAUs AAUs UNFCCC 2-1 (Supplier or Project-Owners) (Broker) (Intermediary) / (End User) 12

13. 2-1 : UNFCCC, EU Commission, Voluntary Standard Sponsors (CCX or Gold Standard) : UNFCCC Secretariat, CDM EB, JISC, Compliance Committee, National Agencies (DNAs), (NGOs) /o o o o ERs ERso (Mandated o ( Annex 1 installations) ) o o ,o ( NGOs , o ) NGOs o o o ERs , , : State and Trends of the Carbon Market 2008; World Bank 13

14. 28 2546 1.7 2549 2.9 2550 2550 64,035 ( 2-2) 2551 1 2550 31 3.9 2555 5.5 3 1. Annex 1 Cap and Trade (Commodity 2. (Carbon Fund) Market) 2563 3 - Prototype Carbon Fund, 78 10Community Development Carbon Fund, Bio Carbon Fund 9 - The Netherlands European Carbon Facility - Italian Carbon Fund - Danish Carbon Fund - Japan Carbon Finance Cap and Trade 2550 9.5 13.8 2551 (: State and Trends of the Carbon Market 2008; World Bank) 3. Carbon Broker Annex 1 Broker Asia Carbon Exchange () CERs European Union Greenhouse Gas Emission 2 CERs Traditional Finance Service () Trading Trading Scheme (EU ETS) Emission PLC () 2550 EU ETS 5 10 http://www.enn.com/business/article/38397 http://findarticles.com/p/articles/mi_m0EIN/is_2008_May_22/ai_n25450757 14

15. Cap and Trade 2563 2.3 67 2-2 : World Bank, State and Trends of the Carbon Market 2008 (http://carbonfinance.org/docs/ State_Trends_FINAL.pdf) 15

16. 2.3 2 3 2551 2551 - 2555 2555 2.4 : 73 50 1,940 450 AAUs 45 2,435 : World Bank, State and Trends of the Carbon 2551 Market 2008 2 450 Emission Trading: AAUs AAUs 46 30 11 24 Deutsche Bank (AAU surplus) 2.0 Joint Implementation: ERUs JI EIT 2555 ERUs 230 JI UNFCCC 2 4 11 Theodore Backhouse, Deutsche Bank Recent Development in Carbon Trading Market: Implications for Thailands Financial Market 24 2551 Pullman 16

17. 2551 - 2555 Clean Development Mechanism: : CERs CDM 2550 CDM 1,600 73 JI 230 6 1,830 2555 CERs 2.5 : World Bank, State and Trends of the CarbonMarket 2008 JI CERs 1.6 (Fragmented) CERs AAUs CERs AAUs (Global Price Signals) 2550 EU ETS 12 8-10 2-2 CERs CERs (Primary CERs) 8 14 EUAs (AAUs EU ETS) 24 12 State and Trends of the Carbon Market 2008; World Bank Carbon Finance Business and International Emissions TradingAssociation, Washington DC, p. 7 17

18. 2-2: Introduction to the International Carbon Markets Pricing and Risk Factors (as of 18 July 2008) 24 EUR/tonne EUAs Fully guaranteed for compliance use within the ETS EU Linking Directive eligibility 21 EUR/tonne Increasing Price / Decreasing Risk Physical deliverability (ITL and Article 17) Guaranteed delivery CERs and ERUs Methodology risk CER issuance is reduced / suspended for a given methodology Country risk Host nation revokes project Letter of Approval Host nation membership of the CDM suspended Political, social, economic crisis reduces / prevents project operation 8-14 EUR/tonne Project risk Delay / failure to complete construction and commissioning Delay / failure to gain CDM registration Project failure, reduction in capacity, repair & maintenance time Failure or delay in CER verification and issuance Primary CERs Joint Implementation Risk Administrative and procedural uncertainties between Tracks 1 and 2 6-12 EUR/tonne Mechanisms for AAU retirement and ERU issuance Potential private sector / public sector conflicts of interest Primary ERUs Acceptability and robustness of soft greening 5+ EUR/tonne ?? Soft greened AAUs ? Political and environmental aversion to hot air 2+ EUR/tonne ?? Raw AAUs ? Note: All prices are subject to change : Presentation Mr. Theodore Backhouse, Deutsche Bank Recent Development in Carbon Trading Market: Implications forThailands Financial Market 24 2551 Pullman 5 ( 2551 2555) ( 2 - 5) EUAs CERs CERs 2550 Annex 1 18

19. 2-5 : EUA CER EUAs CERs 2551* 2551 - 2555 2551* 2551 - 2555 Barclays Capital 30 (A) 34 20 (A) 22 Societe Generale 29 (E) 31 32 24 (E) 20 21 New Carbon Finance 40 (E) 40 23 (E) 16 UBS 30(E) 32.50 N/A EUA 0.5* Lehman Brothers 20 40 (E) 20 40 N/A EUA 3.0* Deutsche Bank 40 (E) 43 N/A N/A Fortis 30 (E) 40 N/A N/A Point Carbon 25 (A) 32 N/A N/A * (A) 2551 (E) 2551 EUA 0.5 CER EUA 0.5: Wannawut Aprinanratanakul, TISCO Securities Co., Ltd. Optimizing Your Success in Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) Projects in Thailand 21 2551 2.4 13 12 (Global Financial Group) (Sovereign Buyer) (Corporate Buyer) 1) (Project Financing) (Loan) (Equity) (Project Owners) 2) (Broker) (Intermediary) (Trustee) 3) (Technical Advisory) (Financial Advisory) CDM/JI CERs ERUs 13 Recent Development in Carbon Trading Market: Implications for Thailands Financial Market 24 2551 Pullman 19

20. 4) (Carbon Trader) CERs ERUs 14 Monetization of Future Carbon Receivable: Carbon Delivery Guarantees: Back-to-Back Derivatives: 2007 (Swap) CERs 15 EUAs CERs ERUs (Options) (Basket) Insurance/Guarantees: Carbon-linked Bond Transaction: 14 World Bank, State and Trends of the Carbon Market 2008 (http://carbonfinance.org/docs/ State_Trends_FINAL.pdf) 64-65. 15 EUAs (European Union Allowances) AAUs EU ETS 20

21. (Green Credit Cards) Carbon Neutral Products EUAs EUAs CERs Climate Investment Fund 21

22. 3 CERs: 3.1 CERs Certificated Emission Reductions CERs Non Annex 1 (CDM) Annex 1 Annex 1 CERs Non Annex 1 CDM CERs Annex 1 3-1 CDM A Annex 1 50 A 30 20 A B Non - Annex 1 1 A 1 30 B A 22

23. 3-1 CERs (Renewable) 16 15 CDM Non - Annex 1 16 CDM 2 1. 7 2 21 2. 10 7 CDM 7-10 CDM 10 23

24. 10 2551 CDM 3-1 CDM UNFCCC 1,197 1. CDM UNFCCC 2. (Voluntary participation) 229 3. 122 289 (Additionality) CDM 4. (business as 31 (360 usual) (financial) (investment) ) 20 (146 (technology) (environment) ) 5. CDM 6. (Transparency) CERs (Efficiency) (Accountability) (auditing) (verification) : 10 864,069 24

25. 3-2 CERs UNFCCC ( 10 2551): United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) http://cdm.unfccc.int/Statistics/index.html 3-1 CERs UNFCCC ( 10 2551) CERs CERs 2555 CDM N/A > 2,900,000,000 4200 : --- 1197 229,909,078 > 1,340,000,000 25

26. --- 108 27,645,888 > 110,000,000 : United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (UNFCCC) http://cdm.unfccc.int/Statistics/index.html3.2 CERs CDM CERs UNFCCC 7 17 16 1) (Project Design) (Project Design Document: PDD) 2) (Validation) (Executive Board of CDM - CDM EB) Designated Operational Entity (DOE) (Designated National Authority for the Clean Development Mechanism DNA) 3) (Registration) DOE 4) (Monitoring) CDM 5) (Verification) DOE DOE (Validation) (Verification) 17 http://www.tgo.or.th/index.php?option=com_content&task=view&id=33&Itemid=29 26

27. 6) (Certification) DOE CER 7) (Issuance of CER) CER 3-3 CERs CERs UNFCCC 7 1 2 UNFCCC DOE 10 2551 3 2 2 DOE 27

28. 3.3 CDM CDM o Unilateral CDM Non Annex 1 CERs Annex 1 o Bilateral CDM Annex 1 Non Annex 1 Annex 1 Non Annex 1 o Multilateral CDM Annex 1 CERs o Hybrid Model Integration Approach CDM CERs CERs CDM CDM 1) (Operational Risk) 2) (Regulatory Risk) CDM 2555 3) (Market Risk) 4) 18 1718 World Bank Carbon Finance Business Implementation Note No. 4, Risk and Pricing in CDM/JI Market, and Implications on BankPricing Guidelines for Emission Reductions, 17 September 2005; World Bank Carbon Finance Business, Washington DC 28

29. 3.4 CERs CDM 2 1) Forward Agreements (Contracts) Pre-CERs DOE CERs UNFCCC 2) Issued Credit Market CERs Primary CERs Secondary CERs Secondary CERs Primary CERs 3 3 (PIN/PDD) 8 13.5 CERs 14 18 CERs 19.05 29

30. 3-3 CERs : Wannawut Aprinanratanakul, TISCO Securities Co., Ltd. Optimizing Your Success in Clean Development Mechanism (CDM) Projects in Thailand 21 2551 CERs CERs CERs Non Annex 1 CERs EUAs AAUs CERs CERs 2555 CERs EUAs 19 CERs CERs CDM 2550 CERs 73 CERs EU ETS 8-10 19 World Bank, State and Trends of the Carbon Market 2008 (http://carbonfinance.org/docs/ State_Trends_FINAL.pdf) 2550 CER EUA 10 30

31. CERs Deutsche Bank20 .. 2551 .. 2555 (AAUs Shortage) 700 (AAUs Surplus) 2.05 Kyoto System 1.3 AAUs (AAUs Surplus) AAUs AAUs AAUs ( AAUs ) CERs ERUs CDM CERs CERs 2551 2555 21 20 CERs 16 22 CERs UNFCCC CERs G - 8 50 2551 Non Annex 1 CDM 20 Theodore Backhouse, Deutsche Bank Recent Development in Carbon Trading Market: Implications for Thailands Financial Market 24 2551 Pullman 21 2 3 31

32. 4 22 21 CDM CDM 4.1 (Asian Development Bank: ADB) ADB Carbon Market Initiative CMI ADB - CDM ADB CDM ADB 4-1 ADB 1) - (The Asia Pacific Carbon Fund: APCF) 2) Technical SupportFacility: TSF 3) CERs The Credit Marketing Facility: CMF22 Recent Development in Carbon Trading Market: Implications for Thailands Financial Market 24 2551 Pullman 32

33. 4-1: CDM ADB CDM CERs : Presentation Mr. Toru Kubo, ADB Recent Development in Carbon Trading Market: Implications for Thailands Financial Market 24 2551 Pullman 4 -2 APCF, TSF, CMF : Presentation Mr. Toru Kubo, ADB Recent Development in Carbon Trading Market: Implications for Thailands Financial Market 24 2551 Pullman 33

34. ADB 4 (Future Carbon Fund: FCF) ADB 4 .. 2551 .. 2552 .. 2553 CDM ADB 2555 ADB 23 75% 4.2 Japan Carbon Finance Ltd. (Japan Bank for International Cooperation: JBIC) 24Japan Greenhouse Gas Reduction Fund (JGRF) CDM JI ERUs, CERs, AAUs Verified Emission Reduction 25(VERs) Japan Carbon Finance (JCF) CDM JI 4 3 23 24 1 .. 2547 31 (Development Bank of Japan) 141.5 25 CERs 34

35. 4 - 3 JBIC JCF JBIC Project A ERPA* DBJ Project B ERPA EQUITY INVESTMENT TEPCO Japan Carbon Finance, Ltd. Project C ERPA (ERs Buyer) CEPCO Nippon Oil Corp. ERRA** ERRA** Mitsubishi Corp. *Emission Reduction Purchase Agreement Mitsui & Co., Ltd. 2nd Framework **Emission Reduction Japan GHG Resale Agreement (Appox.6millCER) Sumitomo Corp. Reduction Fund 3rd Framework (USD140mill) (Appox.5millCER) Japan Carbon Finance (JCF) JBIC (Independent Power Producer: IPP) (Wind Power Project in Bulgaria) JBIC JCF (-) 22 35

36. 4.3 (World Bank) World Bank Carbon Finance Unit (CFU) CDM 11 11 o Prototype Carbon Fund ($180 Million) o Community Development Carbon Fund ($128.6 Million) o BioCarbon Fund Tranche I ($53.8 Million) o Umbrella Carbon Facility ($73.6 Million) o Netherlands Clean Development Mechanism Facility ($268.3 Million) .. 2545 o Italian Carbon Fund ($155.6 Million) 2,000 o Netherlands European Carbon Facility ($56.6 Million) o Spanish Carbon Fund ($282.4 Million) o Danish Carbon Fund ($69.4 Million) 13 o Carbon Fund for Europe ($66.5 Million) 65 o Carbon Partnership Facility 300 CDM 50,000 CDM JI CFU CDM 2 .. 2555 () 1) Carbon Partnership Facility (CPF) .. 2555 2) Forest Carbon Partnership Facility (REDD) 4 2625 26 ..2558 30 36

37. o (.) 1 o 500,000 o 1 o 600,000 37

38. 5 Annex 1 5.1 (EU) 2533 8 20 EU EU Emissions Trading System (EU ETS) Cap and Trade 27 EUA (European Union Allowance) 2548 EU ETS EUAs CER Over the Counter (Brokers) (Forward Contracts) (Future Contracts) Forward Contracts Future Contracts EU Committee NAP (NationalAllocation Plan) EUA 27 1 EUA 1 - 38 -

39. CDM JI 40 2548 2550 100 2551 EU ETS EU ETS (Broker) EU ETS 1 2551 EU International Carbon Action Partnership (ICAP) EU ETS Environmental Financial Products (Carbon Finance Specialists) Carbon Exchange Market (Financial Derivative) (Carbon Traders) (Carbon Management Specialists) (Carbon Auditors and Verifiers) (Carbon Funds) - 39 -

40. EUAs EUAs 15 2551 2020 20 1990 5.2 (Unfair) Cap and Trade Chicago Climate Exchange (CCX) CCX VERs (Verified Emission Reductions) CCX EU UNFCCC CCX CCX UNFCCC UNFCCC CCX 4 2547 23 2550 EU ETS CCX 1.50 UNFCCC - 40 -

41. 2533 2563 80 2593 Cap and Trade (International practices) 2563 2.3 67 5.3 Low-Carbon Society Annex I 1.19 2555 6 2533 50 2593 28 2728 2549 367.5 376 - 41 -

42. (Nippon Keidanren) Cap and Trade 2550 ( 2551) 2549 2.3 1.37 13.5 2555 Kyoto Protocol 2555 2563 Cap and Trade ( Cap and Trade ) Cap and Trade (Cabinet Office) 2551 Cap and Trade Cap and Trade - (Voluntary target) - 42 -

43. 310 Japan Greenhouse Gas Reduction Fund (JGRF) CERs ( CDM) ERUs ( JI) (JapanBank for International Cooperation (JBIC)) (Official Development Assistance: ODA) (Japanese International Corporation Agency: JICA) CDM JI 2552 29 28 10 CDM JCF 1) Japan Carbon Finance ( JCF) 24 2547 2 Japan Bank for International Cooperation (JBIC) Development Bank of Japan (DBI) 31 Japan Green House Gas Reduction Fund (JGRF) JCF CERs/ERUs CDM CERs UN JCF (Wind Power) (Garbage Waste) 2) Carbon Credit Exchange Kyoto Protocol 29 http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=email_en&refer=&sid=aDsQgoYIK3eo - 43 -

44. (Financial Services Agency (FSA)) (Future Market) (Spot Market) (Trading Houses/Consulting Firms) CDM (Future Market) CERs UN Spot Market / 1) 2) 3) 4) 5) 3 15 3) Financial Instruments and Exchange Law (Trader) Trust Bank 30