Africa’s  Challenge:    

Extended  Power  Outages    

Solu;on:  rehabilita;on  of  “aged”  power  plants                            

Sevgi  Ceyda  Şairoglu    

Sabanci  University    

TURKEY    

30  November  2011    

Power outages - why important? �  Power outage à interruption of normal sources of electrical

power

�  Electrical power à transportation, cooking, communication, heating, air-conditioning, and lighting

�  Power outages often accompany other types of disasters à floods, hurricanes

�  Notable power outages: - 1977 NY City blackout - 2005 Java, Bali blackout à affected 100milion people

-  2009 Brazil&Paraguay blackout àaffected 60 million people

Let’s consider another type of power outage that African nations might face in the next decades à need to take action NOW!

Worlwide  Energy  Consumption…  

We  are  facing  (and  will  be  facing  more  in  the  future)  a  more  serious  threat  in  Sub  Saharan  Africa  related  to  electricity  and  power  outages    

Table  1.  World  Electrifica2on  Rates  

    Electrifica;on  rate  (%)  

Urban  Electrifica;on  

rate    (%)  Rural  

Electrifica;on  rate  (%)  

Africa   41.9   68.9   25.0  North  Africa   99.0   99.6   98.4  

Sub  Saharan  Africa  (SSA)   30.5   59.9   14.3  

Developing  Asia   78.1   93.9   68.8  TransiLon  Economies  

&OECD   99.8   100.0   99.5  

World   78.9   93.6   65.1  

Pay   special   aVen;on   to   figures   given   for   Sub   Saharan   Africa…   and   for   a  moment  imagine   a   day  without   electricity   (no   TV,   internet,   mobile   phone,   modern   cooking  faciliLes,  heaLng…).  Imagine  a  year  without  electricity…  Imagine  your  whole  life  burst  into  darkness…    

A  man  made  disaster  threatening  SSA:  Power  outages  

OUen  the  popula;on  that  has  access  to  electricity  suffers  from  poor  supply  quality                    Frequent  power  blackouts  

Average  number  of  days  of  supply  interrup;ons  per  year,  2000-­‐2005  

Eritrea   93.9  

Kenya   83.6  

Madagascar   78.0  

Uganda   70.8  

Tanzania   60.6  

Table  2:  Electricity  Outages  of  firms  in  Africa  

Source:  Mangwende  and  Wamukonya  (2007)  

Source:  East  African  Community’s  report  “Strategy  on  Scaling  Up  Access  to  Modern  Energy  Services”    

 

Power   outages   in   SSA   create   one   of   the   worst  types  of  poverty                                                  “Energy  poverty”                                                        

         

DefiniLon:lack   of   sufficient   choice   that   would  give   access   to   adequate,   affordable,   effec;ve,  and   environmentally   sustainable   energy  services   that   support   economic   and   human  development.      

7  

    1970   1980   1990   2000   2001  

Algeria   10.7   11.7   15.1   16.3   15.7  Cameroon  

  5.2   7.6   13.9   25.7   14.5  Congo   4.5   31.0   18.8   65.3   69.5  Egypt   9.8   12.9   10.1   13.4   13.4  

Ethiopia   6.9   5.4   10.0   10.0   10.0  

Gabon   1.8   0.8   10.2   17.8   17.8  Ghana   6.1   4.7   8.6   14.7   24.0  Kenya   17.9   14.6   15.7   21.3   21.0  Nigeria   13.2   49.3   37.6   38.7   37.8  Tanzania   13.6   12.1   21.6   25.0   23.5  Zimbabwe   6.1   10.3   7.1   21.3   21.4  

Table  3:  Electric  power  transmission  and  distribu3on  losses    (%of  output)  in  African  countries  1970-­‐2001  

•  Electric   power   transmission   and   distribuLon   losses   are   largely  due   to   inefficiency  à   the   losses  have   increased  between  1970  and  2001!    

•  Significant  amount  of  power  plants  in  SSA  are  built  in                              

       1960s  &  1970s                                              older  than  40  years  

•  Turkey’s   General   Manager   of   Power   GeneraLon   Joint   Stock  Company  quotes  “the  average  age  of  a  power  plant   is  normally  25-­‐30  years  and  rehabilitaLon  projects  -­‐to  improve  the  declining  capacity  and  to  render  them  for  a  reliable  producLon-­‐  must  take  place  in  aging  power  plants.”  

•  Although  there  are  iniLaLves  towards  increasing  energy  access  in  SSA   (especially   in   rural   areas)   there   is   no   project   aiming   to  increase  energy  efficiency  and  upgrade  “old”  power  plants.    

How  to  prevent  the  disaster    and  save  SSA?  

•  Rehabilita;on  programs  à  aiming  to    increase  the  producLon  capacity  and  to  raise  efficiency  

•  Aging  faciliLes  are  no  longer  able  to  operate  at  full  capacity  due  to  obsolete  equipment.  It  is  the  case  that  “insufficient  maintenance   and   lack   of   modernizaLon   plague   Africa’s  electricity  infrastructure”  

•  “Aged”  power  plants  need  to  be  refurbished  to  be  efficient  à  so  we  can  ease  the  electricity  outage  problems  in  SSA  

Achievable  solu;on  &  posi;ve  outcomes:  Turkey’s  case:    A  major  rehabilitaLon  program  started  in  2005  in  Turkey  in  the  thermal  and  hydraulic   power   plants   that   used   to   operate   for  more   than   28   years.   The  program  aimed  to  increase  the  producLon  capacity  and  to  raise  efficiency  by  using   new   technologies.  à   why   not   do   this   in   SSA   before   the   conLnent  bursts  into  darkness?        Outcomes:  1.  African  economies  can  achieve  higher  poten;als  of  their  economies  à  

rise  in  producLvity,  efficiency,  and  human  capital    2.  EssenLal   step   towards   achieving   key   targets   of   the   UN   Millennium  

Development  Goals  à  “Modern  energy  can  directly  reduce  poverty  by  raising   a   poor   country’s   producLvity   and   extending   the   quality   and  range  of  its  products-­‐  thereby  pumng  more  wages  in  the  pockets  of  the  deprives”  (IEA,  2002)