Climate-Change Impacting Hydrologic Forecasting

Reggina CabreraNOAA/National Weather ServiceEastern Region, Chief Hydrologic Services Division

River Forecast CentersRiver Forecast Centers

Routed QRouted Q

MAPMAP

MAPXMAPXFMAPFMAP

R/ROR/RO

RRSRRS

UHUH Total QTotal QLocal QLocal Q

Rating Rating AdjustAdjust

FORECAST FORECAST

H, QH, Q

ObservedObserved ForecastForecast

Forecast Process

PrecipitationPrecipitation

StagesStages

ObservedObserved

Challenge for Operational Hydrologists:

Numerous groups looking at climate change effects and hydrologic forecasters are being asked for long-term forecasts

Developing experimental products

Forecast and associated uncertainty

Forecast Evolution

FROM:

Short-term, deterministic, water-level forecast

TO:

Long-term, probabilistic, water-level and flow forecast (ESP)

Daily Operations

Short-term ForecastShort-term Forecast

ESP

Traces: Historical and Conditional

Probability of Exceedance

Communications and Dissemination of Information

Wide use of Internet and GIS capabilities have a revolutionary impact on products and forecast services

Additional information for forecasters

SPRING FLOOD OUTLOOK FOR EASTERN REGION

Existing conditions Soil moisture Drought monitor Average daily stream flow Past rainfall Reservoir considerations

Meteorological outlook –short and long term.

Hydrologic Outlook

Using GFS Ensemble Members

Water Resources Outlook

Individual Locations: 30-day 60-day 90-day

Streamflows: 30-days 60-days 90-days

Inundation Mapping

Diversity of users…

o Emergency Managerso Agricultural Userso General Publico Water Managers

Outreach and Education

Integrated Water Resources

Precipitation Temperature Sea-Level Water levels

Variables

Models

Water Quality River Flows

Water QualityMeteorological Hydrological Ocean

Multi-Agency Effort

CHPS