Dhaka Environmentally Sustainable Water Supply Project-Additional Financing (RRP BAN 42173-016)

Climate Risk and Vulnerability Assessment

Project Number: 42173-016 September 2021

People’s Republic of Bangladesh: Dhaka Environmentally Sustainable Water Supply Project – Additional Financing

CURRENCY EQUIVALENTS (as of July 2021)

Currency unit – taka (Tk)

Tk1.00 = $0.01173

$1.00 = Tk83.90

ABBREVIATIONS

ADB – Asian Development Bank AFD – Agence Française de Développement BARC – Bangladesh Agricultural Research Council BMD – Bangladesh Meteorological Department CRS – climate risk screening CRVA – climate risk and vulnerability assessment DESWSP – Dhaka Environmentally Sustainable Water Supply Project DMA – district metered areas DPP – development project proforma DWASA – Dhaka Water Supply and Sewerage Authority GHG – greenhouse gas GSB – Geological Survey of Bangladesh GWTP – Gandharbpur water treatment plant IPCC – Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change kWh/m³ – Kilowatt-hour per cubic meter MDSC – Management Design and Supervision Consultant MLD – million liters per day MWh – megawatt hour NAPA – National Adaptation Programme of Action NBSAP – National Biodiversity Strategy and Action Plan NPDM – National Plan for Disaster Management NSDS – National Sustainable Development Strategy RCP – Representative Concentration Pathway SLR – Sea-level Rise tCO2e – tonnes of carbon dioxide equivalent WTP – water treatment plant

CONTENTS

I. INTRODUCTION ..................................................................................................................... 1

A. Climate Risk and Vulnerability Assessment ....................................................................... 1

B. Objective of the CRVA and Structure of the Report ........................................................... 2

C. Concept of Risk and Vulnerability ...................................................................................... 3

D. Legal Aspects of Climate Change in Bangladesh .............................................................. 3

II. PROJECT DESCRIPTION ...................................................................................................... 6

A. The Project ......................................................................................................................... 6

B. Data and Methodology ..................................................................................................... 11

III. CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON THE PROJECT ............................................................. 11

A. Baseline Assessment ....................................................................................................... 12

IV. FUTURE PROJECTIONS FOR KEY VARIABLES ............................................................... 16

A. Temperature Change ....................................................................................................... 16

B. Rainfall Change ................................................................................................................ 16

C. Sea-Level Rise (SLR) ...................................................................................................... 16

V. CLIMATE RISK AND VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT ...................................................... 17

A. Likelihood of Hazards ....................................................................................................... 18

B. Consequences of Hazards ............................................................................................... 18

C. Risk Score ........................................................................................................................ 19

D. Climate Risk and Vulnerability Assessment (CRVA) ....................................................... 19

VI. PROPOSED MANAGEMENT AND ADAPTATION ACTIONS ............................................. 20

A. Climate Adaptation Plans within the Project .................................................................... 21

B. Climate Mitigation Plans within the Project ...................................................................... 23

VII. CONCLUDING REMARKS ................................................................................................... 24

REFERENCES ........................................................................................................................... 25

List of Figures

Figure 1: Climate risk assessment and management framework of ADB (Lu 2019) .................... 2

Figure 2: Dhaka Environmentally Sustainable Water Supply Project Site .................................... 7

Figure 3: Construction Phase of Water Intake at Bishnondi ......................................................... 8

Figure 4: Construction phase of the WTP (picture date 04 February 2020) ................................. 8

Figure 5: Pipe Network of P3.2 and P3.2 .................................................................................... 10

Figure 6: A Planned Site for Developing Pipe Network Under P3.2 ........................................... 10

Figure 7: Maximum, Minimum, and Average Temperature in Dhaka (1953-2017) ..................... 12

Figure 8: Monthly Average Rainfall in mm for Dhaka Meteorological Station ............................. 13

Figure 9: Number of Rainy Days of a Year ................................................................................. 13

EXECUTIVE SUMMARY Key Features

Project Title: Dhaka Environmentally Sustainable Water Supply Project – Additional Financing

Project Cost

(in $ million):

430.0 (Overall project cost including the ongoing project: 1,104.9)

Location: Dhaka, Bangladesh

Sector/Subsector: Water and other urban infrastructure and services / Urban water supply

Theme: Inclusive economic growth; Environmentally sustainable growth

Brief Description: The project will establish an environmentally sustainable water supply system in Dhaka. The Dhaka Environmentally Sustainable Water Supply Project (DESWSP or the ongoing project), a project of Dhaka Water Supply and Sewerage Authority (DWASA) with funding from the Asian Development Bank (ADB), Agence Française de Développement (AFD), and European Investment Bank (EIB) aims to provide safe drinking water to a total of more than 3 million people of the capital. The ongoing project is divided into three packages: (i) Water intake at the Meghna River, Water Treatment Plant (WTP), and 21.5 kilometers (km) raw water pipeline (package 1 or P1); (ii) 14 km twin treated water pipeline (P2); (iii) 23 km primary distribution network of package 3.1 (P3.1); and (iv) improvement of existing water distribution network (ICB 2.7). This additional financing will cover fund shortage in P1, P2, and P3.1, as well as a new scope of 43 km secondary distribution network of package 3.2 (P3.2). It will be connected to the district metered areas (DMA) in Dhaka that are supported by other projects. This network will cover most of the Badda, Cantonment, Gulshan, Purbachal, and Uttara Thana and parts of Rupganj, Pallabi, Demra, Kafrul, and Khilgaon thana areas in Dhaka City. The additional financing will also include a new scope for development of toilets and bathing facilities in selected low-income communities; the design of these infrastructures and target low-income communities will be determined during implementation. ICB 2.7 is planned to be completed by end June 2021, thus it will not be included in the additional financing except for small remaining works. The additional financing will be cofinanced with AFD in P1 and P2. ADB finance all packages of P1, P2, P3.1, and the new scopes (P3.2). DWASA’s current water supply is relying heavily on groundwater resource with around 78%, using nearly 900 deep tube wells.1 Present rate of ground water abstraction in Dhaka is unsustainable and the situation will be even aggravated with rapid urbanization, leading to an imbalance of natural recharge rate. Dhaka is frequently affected by flood (World Bank 2017). The city was severely flooded in 1954, 1955, 1962, 1966, 1974, 1987, 1988, 1998, 2004, and 2009. Although high water in the surrounding rivers and heavy rainfall during the monsoon season are major causes of flooding, the situation will be exacerbated with a high rate of land subsidence. The rate of subsidence ranges from 10-18mm/year, which is higher than surrounding areas, indicating excess abstraction of groundwater is a major cause of rapid land subsidence in

1 DWASA. 2019. Dhaka Water Supply and Sewerage Authority Annual Report, 2018-2019. Dhaka.

the city (Brown and Nicholls 2015).2 Between 1996 and 2009, groundwater levels of the deep aquifers regressed from about 27.6 meters to about 67 meters.3 Due to the over abstraction, the decline of the groundwater level is projected to worsen from current 3 meters per year to around 5 meters per year by 2030, potentially leading to widespread land subsidence and severe shortfall in drinking water supply.4 With an increasing trend of subsidence, flood exposure of the city will be increased over time. Further, subsidence will exacerbate the floods to take longer to subside.

Rise in flood-water level of 50 centimeters (cm) along with an uncertainty of 30 cm and riverbank erosion are the key risks of the project. Furthermore, urban flood is a key risk for P3.1 and P3.2. Pipe infrastructures should be strong enough to withstand under flooding condition. Raising ground level and erosion protection are important adaptation options of the project. Switching from ground water to surface water will minimize subsidence that may offer a reduced risk of flooding.

Summary of Climate Change Finance

Project Financing Climate Finance

Sources Amount ($ million)

Adaptation ($ million)

Mitigation ($ million)

Total ($ million)

Asian Development Bank 140.00 21.38 7.08 28.45

Ordinary capital resources (regular loan) 85.00 12.29 7.08 19.37

Ordinary capital resources (concessional loan)

50.00 9.09 0.00 9.09

Special Funds resources (ADF grant) 5.00 0.00 0.00 0.00

Cofinancing 141.48 9.63 35.89 45.52

Agence Française de Développement 141.48

Counterpart 148.52 3.62 13.49 17.11

Government of Bangladesh 148.52

Total 430.00 34.63 56.46 91.08 ADF = Asian Development Fund. Note: Numbers may not sum precisely because of rounding. Source: Asian Development Bank.

The Climate Financing is 20.32% of the additional financing of ADB.

2 Brown S, Nicholls RJ 2015. Subsidence and human influences in mega deltas: The case of the Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna, Science of the Total Environment 527-528, p.362-374. 3 World Bank 2017. Flood Risk Management in Dhaka: A Case for Eco-Engineering Approaches and Institutional

Reform, Report submitted to the Government of Bangladesh. Available online at https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/29348

4 World Bank. 2019. Rapid Assessment of Greater Dhaka Ground Water Sustainability. Dhaka.

I. INTRODUCTION

1. Bangladesh is a small country with a high number of population. Dhaka is the capital of the country and the inhabitants of the city is on a great rise. With a growing number of population of the city, the demand for water is also increasing, which is met mostly from ground water. As a result, the ground water levels of the city is dropping by approximately 2–3 meters per year. Meeting ground water demand from groundwater resources is unsustainable and an alternative option is highly recommended by global natural resources experts. At present, 79% of the supply water is being extracted from groundwater sources and only 22% of water demand is met by surface water. Dhaka Water Supply and Sewerage Authority (DWASA), as well as the Government of Bangladesh is committed to decrease the dependency on groundwater resources, with a target of reducing ground water dependency to 30% by the year 2030. 2. Sustainable water supply is a key focus to attain Sustainable Development Goals. Everyone on earth should have access to safe and affordable drinking water. Sustainable Development Goal number 6 is to ‘Ensure availability and sustainable management of water and sanitation for all’. The respective target 6.1 of the goal is ‘by 2030 achieve universal and equitable access to safe and affordable drinking water for all’. An important indicator (number 6.1.1) to gauge the target is the proportion of population using safely managed drinking water services. Five-year plans are the most important development plans of Bangladesh. Bangladesh is at the final stage of implementing its Seventh Five Year Plan, to be completed by June 2021. ‘Safe drinking water for all’ is a key development agenda of the plan, under its ‘Water and Sanitation’ strategic sector. 3. The objective of the Dhaka Environmentally Sustainable Water Supply Project (DESWSP or the ongoing project) and its additional financing is to contribute to the environmentally sustainable provision and operations of urban water supply, particularly in Dhaka City from surface water instead of ground water resources. This document presents the climate change risk and vulnerability assessment (CRVA) for the project and highlights will be presented in the project’s final climate change assessment report. A. Climate Risk and Vulnerability Assessment 4. Climate change is a global concern. Bangladesh is among the highly vulnerable countries across the world. It is a great concern that agriculture, fisheries, ecosystems, environment, ecology, infrastructure, and above all the economy of the country are and will be affected by climate change. While addressing the need to mainstream climate change in development activities of Bangladesh, it has been highly felt the need for assessing the vulnerability and risk of a newly initiated development projects. 5. The Asian Development Bank (ADB) has developed a two-stage climate risk assessment method (ADB 2016): (i) Climate Risk Screening (CRS), and (ii) CRVA. A development project passes through three stages: (i) Conceptual Stage, (ii) Preparatory Stage, and (iii) Project Implementation Stage (Figure 1). CRS is the task performed at the Conceptual Stage, whereas a CRVA is undertaken at the Preparatory Stage of a project. As the ongoing project was approved in 2013, the climate risk assessment method differs between the ongoing project and its additional financing. 6. In order to address climate change in development projects, Bangladesh has developed a CRVA tool that will facilitate the designing of new projects included in the Annual Development

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Programme and to track climate change impacts while filling up a Development Project Proforma (DPP) of the country. The tool guides users in conducting CRS and CRVA of a public sector development project in Bangladesh.

Figure 1: Climate risk assessment and management framework of ADB (Lu 2019)

Source: Asian Development Bank (ADB 2017)

B. Objective of the Climate Risk Vulnerability Assessment and Structure of the Report 7. This report presents the findings and results of the assessment of the potential climate change impacts on the Dhaka Environmentally Sustainable Water Supply Project and identifies adaptation and mitigation options embedded in different components of the project. 8. This CRVA report has 7 chapters. The first chapter highlights the theoretical background of CRVA with global and national legal perspective of climate change in Bangladesh. The second chapter presents a brief description of the project. The third chapter describes the climate change baseline of the project area whereas the fourth chapter focuses on climate projections. The fifth chapter assesses the climate risk and vulnerability of the project. The sixth chapter presents climate finance, and the seventh chapter presents the study’s conclusions.

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C. Concept of Risk and Vulnerability 9. Climate change risk starts with climatic Hazards, which is defined by Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (2018) as ‘the occurrence of a natural or human-induced physical event or trend that may cause loss of life, injury, or other health impacts, as well as damage and loss to property, infrastructure, livelihoods, service provision, ecosystems and environmental resources.’ The presence of a hazard in a particular area will increase risk associated of that hazard. 10. After sensing a hazard in a spatial area, exposure to the hazard need to understand for risk calculation. Again, Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC, 2018) defines Exposure as ‘the presence of people; livelihoods; species or ecosystems; environmental functions, services, and resources; infrastructure; or economic, social, or cultural assets in places and settings that could be adversely affected.’ In short, anything exposed to a particular hazard is considered as exposure to that hazard. 11. After understanding hazard and exposure, it is the vulnerability that figures out the ultimate risk. Vulnerability is the combined result of susceptibility and capacity. The specific definition of risk as indicated by IPCC (2018) is ‘the propensity or predisposition to be adversely affected. Vulnerability encompasses a variety of concepts and elements including sensitivity or susceptibility to harm and lack of capacity to cope and adapt.’ 12. On the other hand, ‘Risk is the potential for adverse consequences where something of value is at stake and where the occurrence and degree of an outcome is uncertain. Risk results from the interaction of vulnerability (of the affected system), its exposure over time (to the hazard), as well as the (climate-related) hazard and the likelihood of its occurrence’ (IPCC, 2018). 13. Risk of a project in a particular area is the function of hazard, exposure and vulnerability and can be calculated using the risk principle of United Nations International Strategy for Disaster Reduction (2017), as indicated below:

R = ∫(H, E, V) Where, R = Risk H = Hazard E = Exposure V = Vulnerability

D. Legal Aspects of Climate Change in Bangladesh 14. The climate change policies in Bangladesh have a two-fold outlook, focusing simultaneously on economic development and climate resilience. Climate change could heavily impact the economic growth of a country. For example, climate change could cause Bangladesh to yearly lose 2% of its Gross Domestic Product by 2050 and 9.4% by the end of this century (Ministry of Environment and Forest, 2015). As Bangladesh is currently pursuing to secure a middle-income country status, climate change may threaten these and similar development ambitions of Bangladesh. Therefore, climate change polices of Bangladesh must incorporate strategies accordingly. Secondly, Bangladesh’s high rank in the climate change vulnerability index means that it is extremely important for climate change policies in Bangladesh to prioritize climate resilience. To meet these national targets and support the global agenda on climate change, the Government of Bangladesh are guided by plans, policies, frameworks, and acts such as:

(i) Water Supply and Sewerage Authority Act, 1996

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• It assigns respective organization to plan, design and implement sewerage management projects;

• It directs respective organization to take decision on service tariff.

(ii) The Bangladesh Environment Conservation Act, 1995, (iii) The Bangladesh Environment Conservation (Amendment) Act, 2010 and, (iv) Environment Conservation Rules, 1997

• These acts and rules include matters relating to the declaration of ecologically critical areas, process of obtaining environmental clearance, formulation for environmental guidelines, etc.

(v) Bangladesh Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan 2009 and (vi) Climate Change Trust Act 2010

• Bangladesh Climate Change Strategy and Action Plan is a pioneering climate change policy document both at the national and at the global level. It was produced nationally after consultation with a wide range of stakeholders and the implementation of the findings in the plan was financed by Bangladesh Climate Change Trust Fund (BCCTF). The legal instrument underlying the operations of BCCTF is the Climate Change Trust Act 2010.

(vii) Renewable Energy Policy 2008

• The Renewable Energy Policy of Bangladesh was released in 2008 by the Ministry of Power, Energy, and Mineral Resources under the leadership of the interim government. The main objective of the policy was to produce 10% of total power from renewable energy sources by 2020.

(viii) Energy Efficiency and Conservation Master Plan (2015–2030)

• Produced by the Sustainable and Renewable Energy Development Authority, this is a comprehensive master plan that considers Energy Efficiency labeling program, Energy Efficiency building program, financial incentive program, national energy consumption data collection mechanism, cooperation with development partners, capacity development and awareness raising regarding energy efficiency and conservation, etc.

(ix) National Adaptation Programme of Action (2005, 2009 and ongoing)

• National Adaptation Programme of Action (NAPA) 2005, prepared by the Ministry of Environment and Forest, aimed to resolve projects relating to immediate and urgent climate change adaptation. Bangladesh was one of the first two LDCs to submit its NAPA in 2005. The updated NAPA (2009) identified 38 adaptation measures of which 16 had been further developed for implementation by different ministries and departments. Currently, the Government of Bangladesh is collaborating with the United Nations Development Program to launch an updated NAPA with financial backing from the Green Climate Fund. The revised NAPA will focus on institutional arrangements and a coordinated strategy for mid- and long-term climate change adaptation investment. The Ministry of Environment and Forests, Ministry of Finance and Ministry of Planning from the Government of Bangladesh are working collaboratively towards this goal.

(x) National Sustainable Development Strategy (2010–2021)

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• The National Sustainable Development Strategy (NSDS) has been developed by the Ministry of Planning. NSDS is based on the long-term development vision of the Government, the Sixth Five-Year Plan fiscal year (FY)2011–FY2015. The priority sectors for sustainable development in Bangladesh as identified in NSDS 2010–2021 areas are agriculture, industry, energy, transport, and human resource development.

(xi) Disaster Management Act, 2012 and (xii) National Plan for Disaster Management Plan (2016-2020)

• The National Plan for Disaster Management (NPDM) is published by the Ministry of Disaster Management and Relief. NPDM 2016–2020 has been prepared to achieve national long-term Disaster Management goals in line with the Disaster Management Act 2012 and 7th Five-Year Plan FY2016–FY2020. NPDM 2016–2020 has incorporated lessons taken from NPDM 2010–2015 to include among other things synergy between disaster risk reduction and climate change adaptation plans.

(xiii) Climate Resilient Participatory Afforestation & Reforestation Project: Social

Management Framework and Environmental Management Framework

• The project development objective is to reduce forest degradation through participatory planning/monitoring and to contribute in building the long-term resilience of selected coastal and hilly communities to climate change. The objective of both frameworks has been to facilitate compliance with the World Bank’s environmental safeguard policies, as well as compliance with the policies, acts and rules of the Government of Bangladesh and thus ensuring the long-term sustainability.

(xiv) Environment Court Act, 2000

• This act establishes Environment Courts and its jurisdiction. It outlines penalties/fines, offences leading to trials, trial procedures, investigation procedures, etc.

(xv) National Water Policy, 1999

• It has been published by the Ministry of Water Resources. It is a comprehensive policy document. It contains six main objections and contains 16 national water policy titles.

(xvi) National Agricultural Policy, 1999

(xvii) National Agricultural Policy, 2018 (draft approved)

• These policies have been published by the Ministry of Agriculture. The policy aims to ensure profitable agriculture, raising farmer’s incomes, socioeconomic development through improved productivity of crops, nutrition and food security, diversifying crops, developing market systems, etc. The new policy will also incorporate technology transfer, ICT use, nano-technology research, and women empowerment in the agricultural sector.

• Associated policy documents include The New Agricultural Extension Policy, 1996, which was updated to the National Agricultural Extension Policy, 2012.

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These two documents have been published by the Department of Agricultural Extension.

(xviii) The Protection and Conservation of Fish Act (1950) and amendments (1982)

• The 1950 act outlines the catching and trading parameters of fishes in the water bodies of Bangladesh. The act also outlines penalties and power to confiscate and arrest without warrant when an offence under the act is committed for trade.

(xix) National Biodiversity Strategy and Action Plan (2004), (2016–2021)

• NBSAP 2004 was published by the Ministry of Environment and Forest (MOEF) and has been updated by the Department of Environment, MOEF to the NBSAP 2016-2021. It has been integrated to Bangladesh’s 7th Five-Year Plan FY2016–FY2021. The latest NBSAP has five strategic goals, 20 national targets and 50 activities. Implementation bodies are also identified, and their leadership will be constructed under the Bangladesh Biological Diversity Act, 2017. It also outlines the trends of biodiversity loss in Bangladesh, implementation mechanisms (legislation, funding, mainstreaming, capacity development, and coordination), etc. An associated document is the Sixth National Report of Bangladesh to the Convention on Biological Diversity.

II. PROJECT DESCRIPTION 15. DESWSP will establish an environmentally sustainable provision and operations of urban water supply in Dhaka City, Bangladesh. A project of the Dhaka Water Supply and Sewerage Authority (DWASA) with funding from ADB, Agence Française de Développement (AFD), and European Investment Bank, the DEWSSP will provide safe water services to a total of 15 million people of the capital. A. The Project 16. The additional financing covers Package 3.2 (P3.2) that will install secondary distribution pipeline. The pipeline has 0.4–0.8 diameter. It will be connected throughout the District Metered Areas (DMA) from the primary distribution pipeline as will constructed under P3.1. Both Package 3.1 (P3.1) and P3.2 will undergo distribution reinforcement of 21 kilometers (km) within the existing network to reduce leaks. This network pipes of P3.2 will cover most of the Badda, Gulshan, Mirpur, and Uttara Thana in Dhaka city. 17. The project is divided into three packages (Figure 2):

(i) Package #1: Water Intake (from the Meghna River) at Bishnondi, Water Treatment Plant (WTP) at Gandharbpur and 21.5 km pipeline to carry raw water from Intake to WTP;

(ii) Package #2: 14 km twin pipeline to carry treated water from WTP to Water Injection point at Badda, Gulshan; and

(iii) Package #3: 23 km primary distribution network (P3.1); and 43 km secondary distribution network (P3.2).

1. Water Intake

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18. Water intake site is located at Bishondi village to withdraw water from the Meghna River (Figures 2 and 3). The intake site will have two pumping stations. The withdrawal should amount to 1,050 million liters per day (MLD). For reference, DWASA at present delivers about 2,400 MLD water in Dhaka. Intake is part of Package 1 of the project (P1).

2. Water Treatment Plan 19. The Gandharbpur water treatment plant (GWTP) will receive water via a 21.5 km raw water transmission pipeline from the water intake at Bishondi. Water collected at the Intake (raw water) will be transported to the GWTP for treatment and purification (Figures 2 and 4). There will be a 500 MLD surface water treatment facility at Gandharbpur. The GWTP is a part of P1.

Figure 2: Dhaka Environmentally Sustainable Water Supply Project Site

Source: Asian Development Bank

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Figure 3: Construction Phase of Water Intake at Bishnondi1

Figure 4: Construction phase of the WTP (picture date 04 February 2020)

1 Picture date 04 February 2020

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3. Distribution and Network Pipe 20. Treated water transmission mains will be constructed at GWTP to connect it to the distribution system in Dhaka (Figure 5) via the injection point at Badda (located at the American Embassy, Dhaka). The treated water pipeline will be 14 km long twin. This is part of Package 2 (P2). Both P1 and P2 will be constructed in two phases. The primary distribution network will originate at the injection point. The pipeline has diameter of 1.4–0.8 meters. It will start at the injection point and continue until Uttara DMA. This is part of Package 3.1 (P3.1) of the project. 21. Package 3.2 (P3.2) is the secondary distribution pipeline of 43 km with 0.4–0.8 meters diameter. It will be connected throughout the DMA from the primary distribution pipeline as will constructed under P3.1. Both P3.1 and P3.2 will undergo distribution reinforcement of 21 km within the existing network to reduce leaks (Figures 5 and 6). 22. This network will cover most of the Badda, Gulshan, Mirpur, and Uttara Thana.

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Figure 5: Pipe Network of P3.2 and P3.2

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Figure 6: A Planned Site for Developing Pipe Network Under P3.2

B. Data and Methodology 23. The Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD) collects and maintains climate and weather data of the country. There are 60 meteorological stations in Bangladesh. The head office of BMD, located in Dhaka, hosts the most sophisticated data collection facilities of the country. The Dhaka meteorological station is a first-class observatory, collecting climatic data of the area. Rainfall and temperature data of Dhaka station have been used in this study. 24. The Planning Commission of Bangladesh has developed a CRVA tool to integrate climate change in DPP of the country. The CRVA of DESWSP has been developed following the guidelines of the Planning Commission. Additionally, CRVA reporting format of ADB has been followed to write this report.

III. CLIMATE CHANGE IMPACTS ON THE PROJECT 25. Bangladesh is listed among the countries vulnerable to climate change. The climate of Bangladesh is hot and humid in summer and cold and dry in winter. The climate of the country is dominated by monsoon. Generally, summer starts in April and lasts to September. However, July–August is dominated by heavy rainfall. October to early March is winter season with the coldest weather prevailing in December–January.

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A. Baseline Assessment

1. Temperature 26. Air temperature is a prime component of climate. Temperature of Bangladesh is mild in nature. Temperature in Dhaka and surrounding areas varies seasonally with day-night variation. Yearly maximum average temperature for the period of 1953–2017 in Dhaka station is 30.6oC. On the other hand, yearly minimum average temperature is 21.5 oC. Yearly average temperature is 26.1oC. 27. Average maximum temperature is observed in the month of April, with a peak of about 34oC (Figure 7). On the other hand, average minimum temperature is observed as low as 12.7oC in the month of January. Average temperature variation is 10oC. The average lowest temperature has been observed in January and marked as 19.1oC, and average highest temperature has been recorded as 29.1oC in the month of June. Yearly average rainfall of Dhaka was recorded 241 millimeter (mm) in 2017 (Bangladesh Bureau of Statistics, 2018).

Figure 7: Maximum, Minimum, and Average Temperature in Dhaka (1953-2017)

Source: Bangladesh Meteorological Department (BMD 2020)

2. Rainfall

28. The meteorological station of Dhaka shows a total of 2,148 mm of annual rainfall for the period of 1971–2017, with a peak of 373.1 mm in July (Figure 8). The months from May to September of a year are the months with higher rainfall. The lowest rainfall has been recorded in the month of January, with an average record of 7.7 mm. The amount of rainfall is important for

25.4

28.1

32.533.7

32.932.1 31.4 31.6 31.8 31.6

29.6

26.4

12.7

15.5

20.4

23.624.5

26.1 26.2 26.3 25.9

23.8

19.2

14.1

19.1

21.8

26.5

28.7 28.7 29.1 28.8 29.0 28.927.7

24.4

20.3

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Maximum Minimum Average

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flooding in Dhaka and Narayanganj because excessive rainfall cause water logging and urban flooding in Dhaka city and surrounding areas. 29. In a calendar year, a total of 105 days of rainfall has been observed for Dhaka station (Figure 9). The highest number of rainfall days has been observed in July. A total of 15, 14, 17, and 16 rainy days have been recorded in the months of May, June, July, and August, respectively. Only one rainy day was recorded for the month of December.

Figure 8: Monthly Average Rainfall in mm for Dhaka Meteorological Station

Source: Bangladesh Meteorological Department (2020).

Figure 9: Number of Rainy Days of a Year

Source: Bangladesh Meteorological Department (2020).

7.728.9

65.8

156.3

339.4 340.4

373.1

316.5300.4

172.3

34.412.8

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

Rai

nfa

ll (m

m)

23

5

10

1514

1716

13

7

21

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2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec

nu

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3. Flood/Urban Flood 30. Bangladesh is a country of rivers and canals. It is dominated by river networks on tributaries and distributaries of the Ganges-Brahmaputra-Meghna river systems. This large river system carries enormous water from the upstream. On top of that, the country is a place of heavy rainfall. Natural rainwater and water flow from the upstream cause frequent flood along river basins. Some flooding years could go devastating. During the heavy river floods in 1992 and 1998, more than half of the area of Bangladesh were flooded (German Watch, 2004). A flood in 2017 affected 3,917,184 people in 24 districts and damaged 309,542 hectares of cropland (Relief Web, 2017a). 31. Water logging/flooding is a climatic hazard in Dhaka city (Hofer and Messerli, 2006; Government of Bangladesh, 2018). Water logging occurs in Dhaka due to the combination of heavy and/or prolonged rainfall and prevailing poor drainage system (Government of Bangladesh, 2018). Water logging causes contamination of drinking water, especially in urban slums where solid waste management system is absent. Historically, lives and properties in Dhaka were severely damaged. The flood of 1998 damaged drinking water system as well as the sewage and storm water drainage system in Dhaka City (Hofer and Messerli, 2006). 32. Historically, Dhaka was flooded frequently. In recent decades, Dhaka was flooded most in 1988, 1998, 2004, and 2007. The Turag is the nearest river of the project sites of P3.2. Peak flood levels (metres Public Works Datum) in past 4 flooding years are 8.35, 7.97, 7.29, and 6.62 in 1988, 1998, 2004, and 2007, respectively. Demra point of the Balu River is the nearest flood gauging station where peak level (metre Public Works Datum) in 1988, 1998, 2004, and 2007 were recorded as 7.09, 6.97, 6.98, and 6.27, respectively (Government of Bangladesh, 2018). Dhaka city was inundated for 55 days during the flood of 2004 (Asian Development Bank and World Bank 2005).

33. About 50 cm higher flood level has been forecasted in the region by 2050. Coupling of the rise of water level and siltation in the riverbed will create more water overflow along the banks of the rivers. The intake and WTP sites are highly vulnerable to floods. With an increasing trend of subsidence, flood exposure of the city will be increased over time. On top of that, subsidence will prolong the flood to subside.

4. Erosion

34. Erosion is a common problem across the country (Sarwar and Woodroffe 2013). The banks of the major rivers are eroding rapidly. The intake is located on the bank of the Meghna River with medium likelihood of erosion. The WTP is located on the bank of the Sitalakhya River and exposed to erosion.

5. Subsidence

35. DWASA’s current water supply is relying heavily on groundwater resource with around 78%, using nearly 900 deep tube wells2. Present rate of ground water abstraction in Dhaka is unsustainable and the situation will be even worse under the situation of rapid population growth urbanization and industrialization, leading to an imbalance of natural recharge rate. Dhaka city is frequently affected by flood (World Bank 2017). The city was severely flooded in 1954, 1955,

2 DWASA. 2019. Dhaka Water Supply and Sewerage Authority Annual Report, 2018-2019. Dhaka.

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1962, 1966, 1974, 1987, 1988, 1998, 2004, and 2009. Although high water in the surrounding rivers and heavy rainfall during the monsoon season are major causes of flooding, the situation will be degraded with a high rate of subsidence in the city. The rate of subsidence in Dhaka ranges from 10mm/yr to 18mm/yr, which is higher than surrounding rural areas, indicating excess abstraction of groundwater is a major cause of rapid rate of land subsidence in the city (Brown and Nicholls 2015)3. With an increasing trend of subsidence, flood exposure of the city will be increased over time. Further, subsidence will exacerbate the floods to take longer to subside.

6. Declining Ground Water Table

36. According to a study by the Groundwater Monitoring Survey Report of the Bangladesh Agricultural Development Corporation (BADC) and Institute of Water Modeling (IWM), the groundwater level of Dhaka city is declining by about three meters each year. Between 1996 and 2009, groundwater levels of the deep aquifers regressed from about 27.6 meters to about 67 meters4. Due to the over abstraction, the decline of the groundwater level is projected to worse from current 3 meters per year to around 5 meters per year by 2030, potentially leading to widespread land subsidence and severe shortfall in drinking water supply5. Tube wells are drilled at increasingly deep levels, as 15% of existing tube wells become defunct each year (DWASA 2019).

7. Cyclone and Storm Surges 37. Bangladesh is highly vulnerable to cyclone and storm surge. The coastal zone of Bangladesh is particularly vulnerable to cyclones and storm surge. It causes loss and damage of lives and properties along the coastal zone (Sarwar et al. 2016). Areas located in sea-facing districts of the country are under threats of grave devastation by tropical cyclones. The coastal zone experiences cyclones almost every year with different ranges of wind speed (Khalil, 1992). The deadliest cyclone did landfall in 1970, 1991, 2007, and 2009, causing death tolls of 500,000; 148,000, 4,234, and 190 people, respectively (Dasgupta et al., 2011). However, Dhaka city is free from cyclonic storm because of its distant position from the coast.

8. Drought Hazard 38. Droughts are associated with the late arrival or an early withdrawal of monsoon rains and are also due to intermittent dry spells. Drought is a seasonal problem in summer season. Pre-monsoon hot summer season is termed as pre-kharif that covers the period of March to May (Al-Mamun et al. 2018). Rainy monsoon period is the kharif season that starts in June and ends by October (Al-Mamun et al. 2018). There are plenty of rain in monsoon season of the country, however, late onset of rain causes such drought. 39. Bangladesh is expected to be affected by drought in the future. Drought intensity in Dhaka region is expected to increase in the near future (Figure 11). Both representative concentration pathways (RCP) 4.5 and RCP8.5 indicate that intensity of drought will increase in the next 20 years at 2%–4% and 6%–8% respectively (Kamruzzaman et al. 2019). However, drought intensity

3 Brown S, Nicholls RJ 2015. Subsidence and human influences in mega deltas: The case of the Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna, Science of the Total Environment 527-528, p.362-374. 4 World Bank 2017. Flood Risk Management in Dhaka: A Case for Eco-Engineering Approaches and Institutional Reform, Report submitted to the Government of Bangladesh. Available online at https://openknowledge.worldbank.org/handle/10986/29348 5 World Bank. 2019. Rapid Assessment of Greater Dhaka Ground Water Sustainability. Dhaka.

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could increase at a lower rate by 2040–2069 when it may increase by 0%–2% under RCP4.5 and by 4%–6% under RCP8.5 (Figure 11).

9. Geophysical: Earthquake hazards 40. Bangladesh has been divided into four earthquake vulnerable category areas by the Housing and Building Research Institute (2017). The northeastern part has been identified as high vulnerable area, whereas the southeastern part falls under very low vulnerable to earthquake. Dhaka zone falls under low vulnerable area (Figure 12). Thus, earthquake hazard may not be a great concern for the project.

IV. FUTURE PROJECTIONS FOR KEY VARIABLES A. Temperature Change 41. Both temperature and rainfall of Bangladesh is projected to increase as a result of climate change. With varied degrees of uncertainty, different climate change modeling studies have shown differing rates of rise in temperature. Hasan et al. (2013) developed a climate change model using Providing Regional Climates for Impacts Studies simulation and suggested a temperature rise of 2.4°C and 3.7°C during 2041–2070 and 2071–2100, respectively. 42. General Circulation Model projected that the average annual temperature may increase between 0.9oC and 2.6oC by the 2060s (Karmakar et al., 2012). It is to be noted that the IPCC Fifth Assessment Report (2014) projects rise in temperature in South Asia with high confidence (Christensen et al., 2013). B. Rainfall Change 43. With the change of temperature, respected change in precipitation is also obvious. Different studies forecast different rates of change in precipitation because of scenarios of different nature. Kamruzzaman et al. (2019) projected a change of 0–10 mm and 15–20 mm during the period of 2040–2069 and 2070–2099, respectively, under RCP4.5 (Figure 13). Under RCP8.5, a precipitation change of 20–25 mm and 25–30mm have been suggested during the period of 2040–2069 and 2070–2099, respectively (Figure 13). 44. Islam and Hasan (2012) showed, at the end of the 21st century, mean monsoon precipitation will be increased more than 20% and variability will be increased about 70% (212 mm). Probabilities of the intensity for 5 consecutive days show positive trends of precipitation extremes and heavy precipitation for 2050 and 2080 (Islam and Hasan, 2012). An increasing trend in heavy precipitation days has been observed by Shahid (2011). C. Sea-Level Rise

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45. Bangladesh is highly vulnerable to sea-level rise (SLR) (Sarwar, 2013;6 Sarwar and Islam,

2013;7 Sarwar and Khan, 20078). A 50 cm sea-level rise or higher flood level is expected in the

project area by the year of 2050 (DESWSP, 20149). Scientific estimation suggests that the

contribution of groundwater depletion to sea-level rise (SLR) to be 0.8 (±0.1) mm/year, which is

25 (±3) % of the current rate of sea level rise of 3.1 mm/yr (Wada et al. 201010; Taylor et al.

201311). Subsidence rate of Dhaka is as high as 18mm/yr (Brown and Nicholls 2015)12 that will

exacerbate relative sea-level rise in the area.

V. CLIMATE RISK AND VULNERABILITY ASSESSMENT 46. Integrating climate change in development activities has been initiated by different organizations in their respective areas of interest. The Comprehensive Disaster Management Program has concentrated on the preparation of Local Level Risk atlas. The Comprehensive Disaster Management Program has performed multi-hazard risk assessment incorporating different hazard scenarios, along with the exposure dimensions of human and bio-physical elements and a wide range of physical, social, economic, and environmental indicators for assessing vulnerability. Centre for Natural Resource Studies has focused on Climate and Natural Disaster Vulnerability Index considering key parameters linked to the households and their coping capacity with the impacts of climate change and natural disasters. 47. The Department of Agricultural Extension has developed Disaster and Climate Risk Management in Agriculture strategy to incorporate disaster risk reduction and climate change assessment issues in different agriculture policies and action plans, and National Agricultural Extension Policy. Ministry of Environment, Forests and Climate Change has conducted nationwide climate vulnerability assessment with focus on several sectors. The Department of Disaster Management developed Multi-Hazard Risk and Vulnerability Assessment, Modeling and Mapping using Geographic Information System technique. It has mapped out hazard-prone areas of Bangladesh with exposure and vulnerability assessment. 48. The Programming Division of the Planning Commission with support from the ADB has developed CRVA tools to screen climatic impacts on a development project. The tool is under the process of integration with DPP of Bangladesh. After the successful integration of the tool, it will be easier to assess climatic impacts in the conceptual, development, and implementation stages of a project. Likelihood maps of some hazards in Bangladesh are shown in Appendix 1. 49. ADB has indicated a five-tier label of hazards where ‘very unlikely’ indicates the absence of hazards and ‘almost certain’ shows the strong possibility of a disaster (Table 1).

6 Sarwar MGM, 2013. Sea-level Rise Along the Coast of Bangladesh, In Shaw R, Mallick F, Islam A (Ed.), Disaster Risk Reduction Approaches in Bangladesh, Springer. 7 Sarwar MGM, Islam MA (2013). Multihazard Vulnerabilities of the Coastal Land of Bangladesh, In Shaw R, Mallick F, Islam A (Ed.), Climate Change Adaptation Actions in Bangladesh, Springer. 8 Sarwar MGM, Khan MH (2007). Sea Level Rise: A Threat to the Coast of Bangladesh, Internationales Asienforum 38 (3–4), pp.375–397 9 DESWSP 2014. Hydrology Review: Meghna River and Lakhya River, Dhaka Environmentally Sustainable Water Supply Project (DESWSP), Asian Development Bank and DWASA. 10 Wada et al. 2010. Global depletion of groundwater resources, Geophysical Research Letters 37, L20402, doi:10.1029/2010GL044571 11 Taylor et al. 2013. Ground water and climate change, Nature Climate Change 3, P.322-329 12 Brown S, Nicholls RJ 2015. Subsidence and human influences in mega deltas: The case of the Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna, Science of the Total Environment 527-528, p.362-374.

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Table 1: Qualitative method of likelihood assessment (After ADB 2019)

Level Label Likelihood Possible Return Period

1 Very Unlikely Historical trend suggests that the area is highly unlikely for the hazard

Unlikely in the next century

2 Unlikely There is a low possibility that the hazard will occur. However, there are records of the event in known history.

100 years

3 Possible

The event has occurred at least in the past and may occur again.

10-100 years

4 Likely Historical record of frequent occurrence 1-10 years

5 Almost Certain

There is a high possibility the event will occur as there is a history of frequent occurrence. The event is expected to occur in most circumstances

1

Source: ADB (2019)

A. Likelihood of Hazards

50. The CRVA study in 2018 by the Programming Division of the Planning Commission has categorized different parts of the country into five levels of likelihood of 10 hazards and scored as Very Unlikely = 0, Unlikely = 1, Possibly = 2, Likely, = 3 and Almost Certain = 4. Table 2 shows the likelihood of hazards in Dhaka based on this scoring system.

Table 2: Likelihood of hazards (After Programming Division 2018)

Sl Hazards Very Unlikely

Unlikely Possibly Likely Almost Certain

References

1 Flood 4 BARC (2000)

2 Sea-level rise 1 Sarwar (2013)

Taylor et al. 2013

3 Cyclone 1 Islam and Peterson (2009)

4 Drought 1 BARC (2000)

5 Earthquake 1 Islam et al. (2016), GSB (2000)

6 Erosion 1 CEGIS (undated)

7 Flashflood 0 BARC (2000)

8 Salinity 0 Haque (2006)

9 Landslide 0 Sarwar (2009)

10 Storm Surge 0 Sarwar (2013)

B. Consequences of Hazards 51. Hazards with likelihood scores of ‘Very Unlikely’ (value of zero) do not qualify for calculating vulnerability scores. Therefore, calculation of consequences for flash flood, erosion, salinity, sea-level rise, storm surges, and landslide have been omitted. Consequences have been calculated using the CRVA guidelines developed by Programming Division (2018), as indicated below:

Consequences = (Exposure*0.7) + (Vulnerability*0.3)

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52. The Consequence Scores have been generalized using the same guidelines and guide to calculate Risk Score (Note 1; Table 3) as the product of Likelihood and Generalized Score of Consequence. Note 1: Generalized Score of Consequence

Legend for generalization of Consequence

Very Low Low Moderate High Very High

1-1.8 1.9-2.6 2.7-3.4 3.5-4.2 4.2-5

Generalized Score of Consequence

1 2 3 4 5

C. Risk Score 53. Risk scores are the product of Hazards and Consequences. Based on the CRVA guideline generated by the Programming Division (2018), the scores range from 0 to 20, which are again divided into five risk categories: Very Low, Low, Moderate, High, and Very High using scoring divisions shown in Note-2. Calculation of risk scores has been shown in Table 3. Risk Score = Likelihood of Hazard * Generalized Score of Consequence Note 2: Risk Categorization

Risk Scores Vs. Risk Categories

Risk Scores <4 5-8 9-12 13-16 17-20

Risk Categories Very Low (1) Low (2) Moderate (3) High (4) Very High (5)

Table 3: Risk Score Calculation Hazards Likelihood

of Hazard (L)

Exposure (E)

Vulnerability (V)

Consequences (E*0.7) + (V*0.3)

Generalized Score of

Consequence (C)1

Risk Score (L*C)

Risk Category2

Flood 4 3 4 3.3 3 12 Moderate

SLR 1 1 1 1 1 1 Very Low

Cyclone 1 2 3 2.3 2 2 Very Low

Drought 1 2 2 2 2 2 Very Low

Earthquake 1 2 4 2.6 2 2 Very Low

Erosion 2 3 2 2.7 3 6 Low

Flashflood 0 1 1 1 1 0 Very Low

Salinity 0 1 1 1 1 0 Very Low

Landslide 0 1 1 1 1 0 Very Low

Storm Surge

0 1 1 1 1 0 Very Low

D. Climate Risk and Vulnerability Assessment 54. The final decision whether a project needs a CRS or CRVA depends on its Risk Score. According to the CRVA guidelines of Programming Division (2018), if

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(i) Risk score ≤ 8, a Climate Risk Screening (CRS) should be done. (ii) Risk score > 8, a Climate Risk and Vulnerability Assessment (CRVA) should be

done. 55. The calculation in Table 3 indicates that Risk Score (RS) for flood/urban flooding is 9, indicating that the project needs to have a CRVA study. E. Due Diligence 56. The Meghna River discharges in 2030s and 2050s are assessed. There is no clear pattern in river discharge near the water intake site during the rainy season of May–September in 2030s, while a 5%–10% increase in discharge is projected during the rainy season in 2050s. Rainfall during dry season is more uncertain and manmade impacts such as upstream water use will create more profound impacts on the river flow. River flow is abundant even during the dry season as the total planned future abstraction of 2,000 MLD (with increase in treatment capacity of the WTP, with alternative fund source) is about 0.6% of the lean flow (Q-95) of Meghna River.13

VI. PROPOSED MANAGEMENT AND ADAPTATION ACTIONS 57. Although climate change affects development activities in many ways, it should not stop development efforts. Projects could be saved from devastating impacts by putting due measures in place. Dhaka’s groundwater table is falling by 2–3 meters per year. This is projected to increase to 5 meters per year in the next 10–12 years due to rapid ground water extraction.14 This may be a factor causing land subsidence which is reported to be as high as 18 mm per year (Brown and Nicholls 2013).15 Land subsidence will exacerbate urban floods. The project will develop a new surface water supply system for supply augmentation, leading to reduction of groundwater abstraction. Switching from ground water to surface water will help alleviate the impacts of higher floods which, combined with climate change, are expected to take longer to subside. 58. The Guidance Note on Counting Climate Finance in Urban and Water of ADB (2016) directs Diversity of water supply sources as an Adaptation Indicator for capturing climate finance. Switching from ground to surface water is a diversification of water sources, and hence the total cost of the AF qualifies to be consideration as Adaptation financing. This proposition is in full agreement with the opinion of MDSC, expressing a strong view that all of P3.1 and P3.2 costs contribute to the overall climate benefits of DESWSP (MDSC 2021).16 However, the RRP (2013) and related documents lack the evidence that the project was originally conceived and motivated as an adaptation project. Hence, it might be an overestimation, should the full cost be considered as climate financing.

59. No hydrologic modeling was conducted for this project, and no corresponding estimate of changes (increases) in the design flood are therefore available. As an alternative, assumption could be a base for climate finance calculation. The projected temperature increase is about 2.4°C

13 ADB. 2019. Protecting the Meghna River: A Sustainable Water Resource for Dhaka. Dhaka. 14 The World Bank. 2019. Rapid Assessment of Greater Dhaka Ground Water Sustainability. Dhaka. 15 Brown S, Nicholls RJ 2015. Subsidence and human influences in mega deltas: The case of the Ganges–Brahmaputra–Meghna, Science of the Total Environment 527-528, p.362-374. 16 MDSC 2021. Interview with Nigel Osmaston, Team Leader, Management Design and Supervision Consultant (MDSC), Dhaka Environmentally Sustainable Water Supply Project, Dhaka, Bangladesh.

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by 2060, suggesting an increase in moisture-holding capacity by mid-century that may cause a significant increase in design rainfall and flood discharge associated with climate change, resulting in about 20% increment of flood-related costs. 60. The additional financing covers part of P1 and P2 and full of P3.1 and 3.2. Some adaptation and mitigation measures of P1 and P2 of the project have been identified. Since the previous assumption suggested 20% of the total cost of P3.1 and P3.2 qualifies for climate financing, it has been summed with adaptation and mitigation cost identified in P1 and P2. A. Climate Adaptation Plans within the Project 61. The amount of estimated adaptation finance is $21.38 million, which is equivalent to 15.26% of additional financing of ADB (Table 4).

Table 4: Adaptation finance Adaptation Activity Target Climate

Risk Estimated Adaptation Costs

($ million)a

ADB share of

Adaptation Costs

($ million)

Adaptation Finance Justification

P1: Raise the height of all permanent works at Intake by 50 cm, increasing the cost of ground level fill + offshore structure + onshore tanks + pump station. Additionally, the height of all permanent works at Intake was raised by 30 cm to cover uncertainty (of 1 in 100 years worst recorded floods).

Estimated 50 cm higher floods during the 50-year design life, and uncertainty of 30 cm (of 1 in 100 years worst recorded floods).b

6.40 0.80 (ADB financing share for P1 is 12.54%)

Additional cost for raising the ground level by a total of 80 cm (50 cm + 30 cm) was considered as adaptation cost.

P1: Raise ground level fill at WTP by 50 cm. Additionally, the height of all permanent works at Intake was raised by 30 cm to cover uncertainty (of 1 in 100 years worst recorded floods).

Estimated 50 cm higher floods during the 50-year design life, and uncertainty of 30 cm (of 1 in 100 years worst recorded floods).

0.16 0.02 Additional cost for raising the ground by a total of 80 cm (50 cm+30 cm) was considered as adaptation cost.

P1: Erosion protection on (i) the riverbed and the embankments around the Intake, and (ii) the embankments around the WTP.

Climate change will aggravate erosion along the bank of the Meghna and Sitalakhya River.

4.51 0.56 Erosion protection cost has been considered as adaptation finance.

P1: Air valve chambers raised to +80cm for higher flood levels

Estimated 50 cm higher floods due to climate change during the 50-year

0.02 0.00 Minor costs to raise valves above maximum flood level and to cover uncertainty.

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design life, and uncertainty of 30 cm (of 1 in 100 years floods).

P1: Backwash water recycling at WTP

Low Precipitation. Filter backwash water recycle will help to conserve water.

1.44 0.18 Extra efficient recycling (0.5%) reduces raw water collection and respective treatment at the WTP, thus reduces water consumption. Calculated for 30 years @11,100 taka/day. ($1 = 84.7 BDT)

P1: SCADA system During low rainfall/water scarcity period, SCADA contributes to better operational control and lower wastage of water.

2.60 0.32 SCADA will enhance the operational efficiency and facilitate optimal volume of water.

P2: Selected air valves raised to +80cm for higher flood levels

Estimated 50 cm higher floods due to climate change and uncertainty of 30 cm (of 1 in 100 years floods).

0.03 0.00 (ADB financing share for P2 is 11.56%).

Valve chambers are raised to remain accessible during high floods, including an estimated 50 cm higher flood level and 30 cm uncertainty.

P3.1 and P3.2: 21 km primary distribution network of P3.1 and 43 km secondary distribution network of 3.2

Almost 60% of the greater Dhaka lies below the mean annual maximum water level from the surrounding rivers. There is a strong possibility that in near future Dhaka experiences continual water logging if extreme rainfall events accelerate.

19.27 19.27 (ADB financing share for P3.1 and P3.2 is 100%)

Switching from ground water to surface water will reduce land subsidence that will reduce the risk of floods. A 25% increase is estimated in design rainfall and flood discharge associated with climate change. The climate change component is estimated as 20%. 20% of the total cost of P3.1 and 3.2 is $19.27 million (= $96.33 million x 0.2).

Loan consultant: Community awareness and institutional strengthening

Community awareness and capacity development on water conservation.

0.20 0.20 (ADB financing shares is 100% of consultant cost)

Community awareness on water conservation best practices to be provided. Also, training will be provided to DWASA on efficient operation to save energy and water consumption.

Total 34.63 21.38 ADB = Asian Development Bank, BDT = Bangladesh Taka, cm = centimeter, km = kilometer, m = meter, P = package, SCADA = Supervisory Control and Data Acquisition, WTP = water treatment plant.

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a Includes 14% contingencies (physical and price) and 15% taxes. b DESWSP 2014. Hydrology Review: Meghna River and Lakhya River, Dhaka Environmentally Sustainable Water

Supply Project (DESWSP), Asian Development Bank and DWASA. Source: Asian Development Bank.

B. Climate Mitigation Plans within the Project 62. The project will reduce greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions at an estimated rate of 136,483.06 tons of carbon dioxide equivalent per year (tCO2e/year). Estimated climate mitigation finance is $7.08 million, which is equivalent to 5.06% of the additional financing of ADB (Table 5).

Table 5: Mitigation finance Mitigation Activity Estimated

GHG Emissions Reduction

(tCO2e)/year

Estimated Mitigation

Costs ($ million)a

ADB share of

Mitigation Costs

($ million)

Mitigation Finance Justification

P1: Use of energy efficient pumps at Intake and WTP. Maximized efficiency of the WTP OPEX by including 30 years of OPEX costs in the DBO contractor’s bid evaluation and setting high penalties OPEX for failing to achieve the guaranteed energy consumption per cubic meter. The project will help to switch water supply from ground water to surface water source. It will help not to use DTW and reduce power consumption by the pumps used in those DTW.

136,472.04 30.00 3.76 (ADB financing share for P1 is 12.54%)

Efficient WTP process + low chemical consumption + energy efficient pumps will reduce GHG emissions. The difference in (i) OPEX costs of conventional WTP process + pumps from this small carbon footprint WTP, efficient process + energy efficient pumps and (ii) the energy cost of existing DTWs in the project area have been considered as climate change mitigation finance. Power consumption of the project is 0.406 kWh/m³,b compared to conventional power consumption of 1.56 kWh/m³ by DWASA.c Thus, power savings by the project is (1.56-0.406) kWh/m3 = 1.154 kWh/m3 Power savings for 500 MLD is 500*1,000*1.154 kWh/day = 577,000 kWh/day = 577 MWh/day Grid Emission Factor for Bangladesh is 0.648 tCO2e/ MWh.d GHG emission reduction = 577*0.648 tCO2e/day = 577*0.648*365 tCO2e/year = 136,472.04 tCO2e/year

P1: 3,500 trees will be planted as compensation for cutting 570 trees

11.02 0.06 0.01 Approximate cumulative carbon sequestration per tree over 50 years is 0.1574, calculated after CCS Best Practice Method.e

P1: Innovative design of RWP

- 5.40 0.68 The RWP was designed in an innovative way compared to conventional way by putting the pipes in the new road embankment, instead of deep below ground that significantly reduced excavation and construction costs and carbon footprint (20% of the RWP cost).

P1: Innovative design of WTP and intake

- 21.00 2.63 The WTP and intake was designed in an innovative way compared to conventional way by (i) building all WTP process tanks on top of

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the reservoir to save on expensive earthquake-proof foundations, and (ii) replacing the large deep Intake pre-sedimentation tanks with a more robust WTP process at minimum extra cost. This significantly reduced quantities of concrete and steel which are the primary sources of construction carbon emissions (20% of civil works costs in WTP and Intake).

Total 56.46 7.08 ADB = Asian Development Bank, CCS = carbon capture and storage, DBO = design-build-operate, DTW = deep tube well, DWASA = Dhaka Water Supply and Sewerage Authority, GHG = greenhouse gas, kWh = kilowatt-hour, kWh/m³ = kilowatt-hour per cubic meter, MWh = Megawatt hour, MLD = megaliters per day, OPEX = operating expenses, P = package, RWP = raw water pipeline, tCO2e = tons of carbon dioxide equivalent, WTP = Water treatment plant. a Includes 14% contingencies (physical and price) and 15% taxes. b At 2020 prices, contractor guarantees power costs of 0.406 kWh/m3 in “1.4.i Schedule of Guarantees.” c DWASA Annual Report 2013–14. http://dwasa.org.bd/wp-content/uploads/2016/08/Annual_13-140001.pdf. d ADB 2017. Guidelines for estimating greenhouse gas emissions of Asian Development Bank projects: Additional

guidance for clean energy projects, Asian Development Bank (ADB), Philippines. e IMS. Calculating the Carbon Sequestration Value of Trees. Source: Asian Development Bank.

63. For the proposed additional financing, climate adaptation is estimated to cost $34.63 million and climate mitigation is estimated to cost $56.46 million. ADB and AFD will finance 89.6% of adaptation costs and 76.1% of mitigation costs.

VII. CONCLUDING REMARKS

64. Climatic and geo hazards is a great concern for development projects worldwide and across the country. Bangladesh has developed CRVA tools to calculate climatic impacts on a project. The CRVA study of DESWSP has been worked out in line of that CRVA tool. It has identified flood/urban flooding should be addressed in designing, implementing, and operation and maintenance of the project. In order to address climate change concerns, the project has incorporated some adaptation and mitigation measures to its functional components.

65. Unsustainable abstraction of ground water is a major cause of subsidence in Dhaka city that will exacerbate existing problem of flooding and a long-term slow-onset disaster of sea-level rise. Additionally, higher rate of extraction than natural recharge capacity is a major cause of lowering ground water table in the area. Diversity of water supply sourcing from surface water of the Meghna River will reduce land subsidence and the down movement of ground water table that will minimize the impacts of flood.

66. The Guidance Note on Counting Climate Finance in Urban and Water of ADB (2016) directs diversity of water supply sources as an Adaptation Indicator for capturing climate finance. Switching from ground water to surface water is a diversification of water sources, and hence the total cost of P3.1 and P3.2 of the additional financing qualifies to be consideration as Adaptation financing. However, the RRP (2013) and related documents lack the evidence that the project was originally conceived and motivated as an adaptation project. Hence, climate financing was assessed based on an assumption of 20% increment of flood-related costs.

67. Estimated total ADB climate finance is $28.45 million, which is 20.32% of the Additional Finance of ADB. The additional financing project will reduce GHG emission by 136,483.06 tCO2e/year.

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