D2,1.philippines country practices

1 Int’l Workshop Regional Products and Income AccountsMaria Fe M. Talento 15-17 March 2010

Republic of the PhilippinesNATIONAL STATISTICAL COORDINATION BOARD

Measuring Gross Regional Domestic Product:

The Philippine Experience

by

MARIA FE M. TALENTODivision Head

Production Accounts DivisionNational Statistical Coordination Board

International Workshop Regional Products and Income AccountsTiantan Hotel, Beijing China

15 -17 March, 2010



I. Introduction

II. Compilation Process: Gross Regional Domestic Product (GRDP) of the Philippines

III. Sources of Data

IV. Estimation Methodology

V. Development Efforts

VI. Issues on the GRDP

VII. Current Improvements

VIII.Next Steps

OUTLINE OF PRESENTATION



I. INTRODUCTION

The Philippine Statistical System (PSS)

A highly decentralized statistical system:

- statistics are produced by a number of major producers of primary data and by smaller units in all levels of government which generates statistics as a by-product of their administrative or regulatory functions



I. INTRODUCTION The Current Gross Regional

Domestic Product (GRDP)

follows the 1968 UNSNA but to a limited extent already incorporates the recommendations of the 1993 SNA.

a Designated Statistics under Executive Order No. 352 and is currently being developed and maintained by the National Statistical Coordination Board (NSCB))



I. INTRODUCTION Milestones in GRDP estimation:

1974 – first compilation of the GRDP for the period 1971-1974

1978 – GRDP compilation was resumed and institutionalized

Data Series of GRDP: 1978-2008

Coverage of GRDP: 17 regions

Date of Release of GRDP: Every first Thursday of August of the

current year



II. COMPILATION PROCESS

The current GRDP is compiled by industrial origin:

1. Agriculture, Fishery and Forestry a) Agricultureb) Forestry

2. Industry a) Mining and Quarryingb) Manufacturingc) Constructiond) Electricity and Water




The current GRDP is compiled by industrial origin:

3. Servicesa) Wholesale and Retail Tradeb) Transportation, Communication and

Storage (TCS)c) Financed) Ownership of Dwellings and Real

Estate (ODRE)e) Private Servicesf) Government Services




GRDP Measurement : uses the production approach:

- Unduplicated sum of all the goods and services produced in the regional economy (by resident producers), valued at producers’

prices

GRDP (P) = Gross Value Added (GVA) by industry, by region




Top to Bottom Approach:

- National control total by sector is allocated by region

- data support is stronger at the national level




The NSCB is in the process of devolving the estimation of the GRDP to the NSCB Regional Offices:

- the NSCB Central Office estimates the GRDP by sector for all 17 regions using the national level as control total.

- Simultaneously, the 9 NSCB regional offices come up with an independent estimate of their region’s GDP by sector using available data and indicators from their respective regions




Estimates of the Central Office and the NSCB Regions go through a deliberation process by sector by region (validation of data, major developments in the region, etc.)

The final estimates are reached, in consensus with the NSCB Regions after incorporating all considerations in the deliberation process.

Independent estimates from the regions, however, will not add up to the national total

National total by sector is allocated to the Regions using percentage distribution.



III. SOURCES OF DATA Census/Survey-based data - Census of Phil. Business & Industry (CPBI) - Annual Survey of Phil. Business & Industry

(ASPBI) - Quarterly Survey of Phil Business & Industry

(QSPBI)

Administrative-based data

Special Studies

Indicators from Industry Associations (i.e., Chamber of Mines, Cement Manufacturers Assn. of the Philippines, etc.)



Indirect Approach: Use of GVARs

GVA = Gross Output * Gross Value Added Ratio (GVAR)

where:

GVAR = Gross Value Added Gross Output

Sectors: Agriculture, Fishery and Forestry, Mining and Quarrying

IV. Current Price Estimation: by region



Value Extrapolation

GVAt = previous GVA level t-1 * growth rate of

the value of productiont /t-1

Example: Services sectors – value extrapolation using the trend of gross revenue from the Quarterly Survey of Phil Business and Industry (QSPBI)

IV. Current Price Estimation: by region



Uses the fixed-base year method:

Single Deflation: GVAk = GVAt /Deflator

Quantity Revaluation: GVAk = (Qtyt * Price at base year)*GVAR

Volume Extrapolation: GVAk = GVA level t-1 * 1+ GR rate of

volume or output indicator/t-1

IV. Constant Price Estimation: by region



V. DEVELOPMENT EFFORTS

Addressing increasing demand for local level statistics:

pilot compilation of the Provincial Product Accounts for the provinces of Palawan in 1998 and Guimaras in 2006




ADVANCE RELEASE CALENDAR: NSCB has adopted a policy of releasing in advance the schedule of press releases for the national accounts & its related accounts including the GRDP

Forging of partnerships with source agencies

- bilateral meetings, Task Forces




Supplementary data from the private sector:

- financial statement of companies

- gross revenue of top food chains

- volume and value of utilities

- Indicators from industry associations

Incorporated emerging industries such as the Business Process Outsourcing (BPO) in GRDP beginning 2003




Use of NSCB website to inform the public:

Press Releases, Announcements on the GRDP

Technical Notes on the GRDP

Metadata on the GRDP

Advance Release Calendar on National Accounts and its Related Accounts

Regional Fact Sheets

Response to erroneous GRDP reports from the media



VI. ISSUES

Data Problems

Data support at the regional level

Frequent revision of regional compositions

Time lag of data sources Survey/Census results, Price indices, etc.

Need to update/improve parameters Ratios used in estimation i.e., GVAR,

undercoverage ratios



VI. ISSUES

Coverage

Emerging Industries

Births and deaths of establishments

Undercoverage of illegal activities

Undercoverage of own-account production



VI. ISSUES

Some Measurement Problems Regional allocation of output

-Economic activities such as Fishing, Transportation and Communication industries which extend beyond regional boundaries

-Problem of allocating the cost of operations of the head office for companies with regional branches

Regional estimates of the informal sector



VI. ISSUES

RESOURCES

Manpower

- fast turnover of national accounts staff in the central office

- need for training on National Accounts for NSCB personnel in the Regions

- need for the NSCB Central Office staff to revive visits to the regions for validation of estimates



VI. ISSUES

RESOURCES

Software for GRDP Compilation: -need to upgrade current hardware and software resources

- - need to refine the existing computerized

GRDP compilation

Financial Resources for statistical activities: limited budget given to censuses and surveys; Statistical offices always get low priority in the allocation of resources



VII. CURRENT IMPROVEMENTS

Over-all Revision/Rebasing of the GRDP

Revised/rebased 1998-2009 series

Implementation of 1993 SNA Concepts

Shift in base year to 2000 & eventually 2006

Improvement in Data and Methodology

Refinements in the computerized compilation of the GRDP

Date of Release: September 2010



VIII. NEXT STEPS

Compilation of City/Provincial Product Accounts

Provision of training to Compilers and Data Producers

Policy on Overall Revision/Rebasing of the GRDP



Maraming Salamat Po!

URL: http://www.nscb.gov.ph

e-mail: [email protected]

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D2,1.philippines country practices