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DECEMBER 2014
KCM Divided intoThree Sections
Source: FHFA
Year-over-Year Percent Change in PriceBy Region
By StateYear-over-Year Percent Change in Price
Source: FHFA
Quarterly Percent Change in PriceBy State
Source: FHFA
S&P Case Shiller 11/2014
Year-Over-Year
PRICECHANGES
CaseShiller
Year-Over-Year PRICE CHANGESCase Shiller
S&P Case Shiller 11/2014
Home Price Expectation
Survey
A nationwide panel of over one hundred
economists, real estate experts and investment
& market strategists.
Home Price Expectation Survey 2014 4Q
Average Annual % APPRECIATION
Pre-Bubble
Bubble
Bust
RecoveryTo Date
PROJECTEDMean Percentage Appreciation
Home Price Expectation Survey 2014 4Q
Cumulative House Appreciation by 2019
23.7%
32.8%
23.5%
15.1%
Pre-BubbleTrend
Bulls All Projections
Bears
Home Price Expectation Survey 2014 4Q
% Change in Sales from last year
by Price Range
NAR 10/2014
Pending Home Sales
Foot Traffic (indicator of future sales)
Projected Total Home Sales (Existing & New Construction in Millions)
30 DAY PLAN
Months Inventory of HOMES FOR SALE
NAR 11/2014
Re-Up your listings that are
about to Expire
List EVERY expired listing in January
eGuides Available
The percentage of homes selling as a FSBO has decreased from 19% to 9% in the last 20+ years
FSBOs as a Percentage of all Home Sales
$209K
$235K
By FSBO By AGENT
*The ‘typical’ price is actually the average price in the survey. However, studies have shown that people are more likely to FSBO in markets with lower price points.
Typical Sold Price*FSBO vs. Agent
Where Buyers Find the Home They Purchase Over the Last 10 Years by Percentage
Newspapers
Yard Signs
The Internet
% of Buyerswho used an Agent
NAR
15% DISCOUNT
Mortgage Interest
RATES
Freddie Mac Actual Rates
January 2013 – November 2014
30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgages
Freddie Mac 11/2014
Freddie Mac 11/2014
Freddie Mac Mortgage Rates January 2014 – November 2014
30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgages
Quarter Fannie Mae
Freddie Mac MBA NAR Average
of all four
2015 1Q 4.1% 4.2% 4.4% 4.4% 4.28%
2015 2Q 4.2% 4.5% 4.6% 4.7% 4.50%
2015 3Q 4.3% 4.7% 5.0% 5.1% 4.78%
2015 4Q 4.4% 5.0% 5.1% 5.4% 4.98%
Mortgage Rate Projections
11/2014
“While higher interest rates generally detract from housing activity, when they occur with strong job and income growth the net result can be increases in household formations, construction, and home sales.
Our view for 2015 is exactly that, namely, income and job growth offset the negative effect of higher interest rates and translate into gains for the nation’s housing market.”
Freddie Mac
July1984
October1987
December1994
May 2000
May 1983 March 1987 October 1993 April 1999
Real Estate Value Change During Each Time Period
Dra
mat
ic M
ortg
age
Rat
e In
crea
ses
100 = Historically Healthy Level
PENDING Home Sales
NAR 11/2014
EXISTING Home Sales
NAR 11/2014
S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Indices
S&P Case Shiller 11/2014
Months Inventory of HOMES FOR SALE
NAR 11/2014
Months Inventory of HOMES FOR SALE
NAR 11/2014
Year-over-Year Inventory Levels
NAR 11/2014
Percentage of Distressed Property
Sales
35%
9%
14%
January 2012 - Today
NAR 11/2014
Resources
KEEPINGCURRENTMATTERS.COM
Slide Slide Title Link
5,6,7Year-over-Year % Change in Price by Region, by State, Quarterly % Change
http://www.fhfa.gov/DataTools/Tools/Pages/House-Price-Index-(HPI).aspx
8,9 Case Shiller Year-over-Year Price Changes http://us.spindices.com/index-family/real-estate/sp-case-shiller
10-13 Home Price Expectation Survey Results https://pulsenomics.com/Q4_2014_HPE_Survey.php
14,15,16 % Change in Sales, Pending Sales, Foot Traffic http://www.realtor.org
17 Projected Total Home Saleshttp://www.realtor.orghttp://www.freddiemac.com/http://www.mbaa.org/default.htm
19 Months Inventory Homes for Sale http://www.realtor.org
22 eGuides Available http://www.keepingcurrentmatters.com/eguides2 (Login Required)
23-26
% of FSBO’s, Typical Sold Price, Where Buyers Found Home, % of Buyers who Use an Agent
http://www.realtor.org/reports/highlights-from-the-2014-profile-of-home-buyers-and-sellers
29, 30 30 Year Fixed Rate Mortgages http://www.freddiemac.com/pmms
31 Mortgage Rate Projections
http://www.mortgagebankers.org/files/Bulletin/InternalResource/89942_.pdfhttp://www.fanniemae.com/resources/file/research/emma/pdf/Economic_Forecast_112014.pdfhttp://www.freddiemac.com/finance/pdf/November_2014_public_outlook.pdfhttp://www.realtor.org/sites/default/files/reports/2014/embargoes/phs-11-26/forecast-10-2014-us-economic-outlook-11-26-2014.pdf
Resources
KEEPINGCURRENTMATTERS.COM
Slide Slide Title Link
32 Freddie Mac Quote http://www.freddiemac.com/finance/pdf/November_2014_public_outlook.pdf
33 Dramatic Mortgage Increases & Real Estate Values http://www.calculatedriskblog.com/2013/07/house-prices-and-mortgage-rates.html
35,36,38, 39
Pending Home Sales, Existing Home Sales, Months Inventory Homes for Sale, Year-over-Year Inventory, Distressed Property Sales
http://www.realtor.org
37 S&P Case-Shiller HPI https://www.spice-indices.com/idpfiles/spice-assets/resources/public/documents/122371_cshomeprice-release-1125.pdf
29 KCM Members Only Facebook Group www.facebook.com/groups/kcmmembers
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and 80%
Be Prepared with your Mobile Devices
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