Demographic Trends in North Dakota - ND Compass Demographic... · North Dakota Compass provides and promotes the use of reliable, accurate, and unbiased demographic, economic, and

Demographic Trendsin North Dakota

Ina CernuscaNorth Dakota CompassCenter for Social ResearchNorth Dakota State University

NO

RTH

DAK

OTA

CO

MP

ASS

North Dakota Compass providesand promotes the use of reliable, accurate, and unbiased demographic, economic, and socio-economic data to support informed decision making and community engagement in North Dakota.

By providing policymakers and citizens with benchmarks of child well-being, North Dakota KIDS COUNT seeks to enrich local and state discussions concerning ways to secure a better future for all children.

NO

RTH

DAK

OTA

KID

S CO

UN

T

DEMOGRAPHIC TRENDS

• Population Changes

• Age Distribution

• Gender Breakdown

• Racial & Ethnic Composition

POPULATION CHANGES

QUESTION

The population increase in North Dakota from 2010 to 2018 is:

a) Larger than the U.S.

b) About the same as U.S.

c) Smaller than the U.S.

POPULATION CHANGE

Source: ND Compass/Demographics/Population

13%

6%

POPULATION CHANGE

500,000

550,000

600,000

650,000

700,000

750,000

800,000

1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2018

Total PopulationNorth Dakota, 1940-2018

641,935

760,077

672,591

642,200


POPULATION CHANGE

500,000

550,000

600,000

650,000

700,000

750,000

800,000

2010 2012 2014 2016 2018

Total population North Dakota, 2010-2018

760,077

672,591

13%


POPULATION CHANGEPopulation Loss

North Dakota counties, 1940-2010

Source: 2012 ND Statewide Housing Needs Assessment

30 counties

POPULATION CHANGE

McKenzie114%

Williams58%

Mountrail33%

Dunn23%


POPULATION CHANGE BY COUNTY(annual percentage change)

2000-2018


https://public.tableau.com/views/Populationbycounty_15713401609520/Sheet5?:embed=y&:display_count=yes&publish=yes&:origin=viz_share_link

COMPONENTS OF CHANGE

-10,000

-5,000

0

5,000

10,000

15,000

20,000

25,000

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Population change by components of changeNorth Dakota, 2010-2018

Net migration Natural change Total population change

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2018 Population estimates

POPULATION PROJECTIONS

500,000

700,000

900,000

20

00

20

01

20

02

20

03

20

04

20

05

20

06

20

07

20

08

20

09

20

10

20

11

20

12

20

13

20

14

20

15

20

16

20

17

20

18

20

24

20

29

Total Population Trend and Forecast

North Dakota, 2000-2029

Total population Total population forecast

Source: ND Compass/Demographics/Population; 2016 ND Statewide Housing Needs Assessment

POPULATION TRENDS SUMMARY

• North Dakota experienced extraordinary growth from 2000 to 2018.

• The change has not been consistent across the state.

AGE

DISTRIBUTION

QUESTION

North Dakota’s median age is higher than the U.S.

a) True

b)False

MEDIAN AGE

Source: ND Compass/Demographics/Age

North Dakota

United States

MEDIAN AGE

Sheridan54.1

Sioux27.8


30 counties

9 counties

AGE STRUCTURE

Source: ND Compass/Demographics/Age; 2016 ND Statewide Housing Needs Assessment

0

100,000

200,000

300,000

400,000

500,000

600,000

1980 1990 2000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2024 2029

Population by Age GroupsTrends and Forecast


Age 0-4 Age 5-19 Age 20-64 Age 65+

AGE GROUPS


0

50,000

100,000

150,000

200,000

250,000

300,000

1980 1990 2000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2024 2029

Population by Workforce Age GroupsTrends and Forecast


Entry and prime labor force (25-44) Prime labor force and pre-retirement (45-64)

AGE GROUPS

-1.9% -0.7%

4.1%3.0%

30.2%

22.6%

17.8% 17.5%

-2.0%

19.7%

-5%

0%

5%

10%

15%

20%

25%

30%

35%

0-4 5-17 18-44 45-64 65+

Age group

Population change by age groupNorth Dakota and U.S., 2010-2018

U.S. ND


OLDER ADULTS (age 65+)


Sheridan 32%

McIntosh 31%

13 counties

OLDER ADULTS (age 65+)


23 counties

OLD AGE DEPENDENCY

4.4

3.9 3.94.1 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.2 4.1

3.9 3.8

3.43.1

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

3.5

4.0

4.5

5.0

1980 1990 2000 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2024 2029

Old Age Dependency RatioNumber of working age adults (age 20-64)

for every older adult (age 65+)North Dakota, 1980-2029


OLD AGE DEPENDENCY


OLDER ADULTS WORKING (age 65+)

Source: ND Compass/Workforce/Proportion of adults working

AGE DISTRIBUTION SUMMARY

•Increase in the number of children and young adults.•Increase of the older adult population with the aging of the baby boomers.•Decrease of the pre-retirement age group (potential caregivers)

GENDER BREAKDOWN

QUESTION

What is the gender breakdown in ND (total population)?

a) More males than females

b) Males and females are equal

c) More females than males

GENDER BREAKDOWN

320,524

389,350

321,676

370,727

250,000

300,000

350,000

400,000

Population by GenderNorth Dakota, 2000-2018

Male Female


(15% increase)

(11% increase)

RACIAL & ETHNIC

COMPOSITION

RACIAL AND ETHNIC DIVERSITY

2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018

Population of color(number and percentage in total population)


74,155

121,888

16%

Source: ND Compass/Demographics/Race

11%


Percentage increase in population of color

(2010-2018)




5.5%

1.8%

3.4%

3.9%

2.2%

84.0%




211%

119%

91%

14% 7%0%

50%

100%

150%

200%

250%

Black Hispanic Asian AmericanIndian

White (non-Hispanic)

Change in population by race and ethnicityNorth Dakota, 2010-2018




FOREIGN IMMIGRANTS

Population by NativityNorth Dakota, 2018

Asia, 40%

Africa, 31%

Latin America, 13%

Europe, 9%

Northern America,

7%

Foreign born by place of birth

724,25395% 35,824

5%

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, 2018 American Community Survey, 1-Yr Estimates

U.S. born

Foreign born

RACIAL AND ETHNIC DIVERSITY SUMMARY

• North Dakota is becoming increasingly diverse

• One of the least diverse states in the U.S.

CONCLUSION

• Dramatic population shifts, becoming younger while growing old, gender differences, and increased diversity

• Main trends inform sustainable and responsible planning

Thank You!

I n a C e r n u s c a , N o r t h D a k o t a C o m p a s sm i h a e l a . c e r n u s c a @ n d u s . e d u

mailto:[email protected]

Documents

Demographic Trends in North Dakota - ND Compass Demographic... · North Dakota Compass provides and promotes the use of reliable, accurate, and unbiased demographic, economic, and