Economic Bulletin (Vol. 32 No.12)

8/8/2019 Economic Bulletin (Vol. 32 No.12)

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The Green Book: Current Economic Trends

Overview 3

1. Global economy 4

2. Private consumption 8

3. Facility investment 12

4. Construction investment 14

5. Exports and imports 16

6. Mining and manufacturing production 18

7. Service sector activity 20

8. Employment 22

9. Financial markets 26

9.1 Stock market9.2 Exchange rate9.3 Bond market9.4 Money supply & money market

10. Balance of payments 30

11. Prices and international commodity prices 32

11.1 Prices11.2 International oil and commodity prices

12. Real estate market 36

12.1 Housing market12.2 Land market

13. Composite indices of business cycle indicators 40

Policy Issues2011 Economic policies 42

Economic News Briefing 48

Statistical Appendices 53

Republic of Korea

Economic Bulletin

Vol. 32 | No. 12


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Economic Bulletin 3

The Korean economy continued a recovery track, although some economic indicators posteda decrease amid the economy returning to normal from the speedy pick-up after the crisis.

Mining and manufacturing production in October, while gaining 13.5 percent year-on-year,lost 4.2 percent month-on-month affected by production adjustments made tosemiconductors and automobiles. Service output rose 0.5 percent month-on-month and 3.0percent year-on-year backed by improving employment and income.

Consumer goods sales, despite sluggish durable goods sales, increased 0.2 percent month-on-month and 4.2 percent year-on-year in October as winter clothing sales jumped.

In October facilities investment fell 9.5 percent month-on-month due to a drop insemiconductor and transportation equipment investments, while rising 10.2 percent year-on-year. Construction completed declined 10.4 percent month-on-month and 9.5 percentyear-on-year affected by negative construction sentiment.

Exports in November, led by brisk semiconductor and automobile exports, rose 24.6 percentyear-on-year, while imports jumped 31.2 percent affected by increasing raw material prices.

The total number of workers hired in October gained 316,000 year-on-year, with the privatesector mainly contributing to the increase. The employment rate (seasonally adjusted)posted 59.4 percent, adding 0.1 percentage point year-on-year. The unemployment rate(seasonally adjusted) rose 0.1 percentage point year-on-year, registering 3.3 percent, asthose from economically inactive population applied for census jobs but were not selectedwere counted as unemployed persons.

The consumer price in November posted a greatly decelerated growth from 4.1 percent in theprevious month to 3.3 percent, thanks to falling agricultural product prices, while coreconsumer prices stayed stable, increasing 1.8 percent year-on-year.

In November stock prices rose as the G20 Seoul Summit positively affected investment

sentiment. However, worries over the possible European fiscal crisis and Koreas geopoliticalrisks raised foreign exchange rates afterwards.

Housing prices began to rebound in the Seoul metropolitan area toward the end ofNovember, while rental prices continued to rise due to seasonal demands and wait-and-seeattitudes held by potential home buyers.

To sum up, although the global economy has made a steady recovery, downside risks stillexist as to uncertainties over a possible European fiscal crisis and the danger from NorthKorea.

The Korean government will go on with macroeconomic policies which facilitate sustainablegrowth, while renewing efforts to restructure the economy so that the economy can deal

with any external changes. On the other hand, the government will continue to support theworking class by stabilizing basic necessities prices, boosting domestic demand andcreating jobs, as well as enhancing support for vulnerable groups.

The Green BookCurrent Economic Trends

Overview


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4 December 2010

1. Global economy

The global economy showed steady recovery as major economies continued an upward

track, and China and other emerging countries posted a fast recovery. However, downside

risks exist as the possibility of a European fiscal crisis led by Ireland resurfaced and worries

over capital market volatility in emerging economies grew. The OECD maintained its

economic growth outlook for 2010 at 4.6 percent, but revised down the 2011 prediction from

4.5 percent made in May to 4.2 percent on November 18.

Although US real GDP in the third quarter revised up to 2.5 percent (preliminary, annualized

q-o-q) from the advanced estimate, the housing and job markets still struggle.

Industrial production in October stayed flat month-on-month, while retail sales accelerated

growth, up 1.2 percent.

In October, both new and existing home sales shifted to a decrease month-on-month by 8.1

percent and 2.2 percent, respectively.

Employment in October remained sluggish with slowing down new non-farm payroll

employment and the rising unemployment rate which landed at 9.8 percent.

The Federal Reserve at the FOMC meeting in November decided to purchase US$600 billion

long-term treasury securities by the end of the 2nd quarter of 2011, and Fed Chairman Ben

Bernanke mentioned a possible increase in the securities purchase on December 5. The Feds

Beige Book reported that 10 out of 12 Federal Reserve Districts showed economic improvement.

US

(Percentage change from previous period)

Real GDP2

- Personal consumption expenditure

- Corporate fixed investment

- Construction investment for housing

Industrial production

Retail sales

Existing home sales

New non-farm payroll employment(thousand)3

Consumer prices

2009 20101

1. Preliminary

2. Annualized rate (%)

3. Monthly average

Source: US Department of Commerce

Annual

-2.6

-1.2

-17.1

-22.9

-9.3

-6.3

5.4

-395

-0.3

Q1

-4.9

-0.5

-35.1

-36.2

-4.7

-1.7

-2.2

-753

-0.6

Q2

-0.7

-1.6

-7.4

-19.7

-2.7

0.0

3.7

-477

0.5

Q3

1.6

2.0

-1.7

10.6

2.0

1.9

10.5

-261

0.9

Q4

5.0

0.9

-1.4

-0.8

1.7

1.7

13.1

-90

0.6

Q1

3.7

1.9

7.8

-12.3

1.8

2.1

-13.69

87

0.4

Q2

1.7

2.2

17.2

25.7

1.7

1.1

8.4

190

-0.2

Q3

2.5

2.8

10.3

-27.5

1.3

0.7

-25.3

-30

0.4

Oct

-

-

-

-

0.0

1.2

-2.2

172

0.2

Nov

-

-

-

-

-

-

-

39

-


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Economic Bulletin 5

US federal funds rate and consumer prices

Source: US Federal Reserve Board & Department of Labor

US non-farm payroll employment (m-o-m change)

Source: US Department of Labor

US GDP (q-o-q, annualized rate)

Source: US Department of Commerce1-1

1-2

1-3


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6 December 2010

Chinas economy, while domestic demand steadily improving, slightly slowed down due todecelerating exports affected by difficult external situations and tightening measures. TheChinese government raised the banks reserve requirement ratio twice on November 10 and 19by 100 basis points to curb inflation as consumer prices had surpassed the 3.0 percent targetfor four straight months and liquidity expanded at a faster pace.

Japans economy grew 0.9 percent (advanced, quarter-on-quarter) in the third quarter of2010, backed by governments subsidies for eco-friendly car purchase. Although consumerprices rose for the first time in 22 months, industrial production decreased at a faster paceand retail sales dropped in 10 months, showing continuing deflation. Japans Cabinet Officerevised down its assessment of the current economic situation for 9 local economies out of11 on December 1.

The eurozone economy slowed down and grew 0.4 percent (advanced, quarter-on-quarter)in the third quarter of 2010, while worries over a possible European fiscal crisis resurfaced.Despite the agreement on the massive bailout for Ireland, there were continuing concernsthat the Irelands fiscal woes might spread to Spain and Portugal. The EU and the IMF agreedon the US$85 billion bailout plan for Ireland on November 28.

China

Japan

(Percentage change from same period in previous year)

Real GDP


Fixed asset investment (accumulated)

Retail sales

ExportsConsumer prices

Producer prices

2009 20101

1. Preliminary

Source: China National Bureau of Statistics

1. Preliminary

Source: Eurostat

Real GDP


Retail sales

Exports (y-o-y, %)

Consumer prices (y-o-y, %)

2009 20101(Percentage change from previous period)

1. Preliminary

Source: Japans Statistics Bureau and Statistics Centre

Real GDP

Industrial and mining production

Retail sales (y-o-y, %)

Exports (y-o-y, %)

Consumer prices (y-o-y, %)

2009 20101(Percentage change from previous period)

Housing price (%, y-o-y)12.4 (May 2010) 11.4 (Jun) 10.3 (Jul) 9.3 (Aug) 9.1 (Sep) 8.6 (Oct)

M2 growth (%, y-o-y)

21.0 (May 2010) 18.5 (Jun) 17.6 (Jul) 19.2 (Aug) 19.0 (Sep) 19.3 (Oct)

Annual

9.1

11.0

30.5

15.5

-16.0-0.7

-5.4

Q1

6.2

5.1

28.6

14.9

-19.7-0.6

-4.6

Q2

7.9

9.1

33.6

15.0

-23.4-1.5

-7.2

Q3

9.1

12.4

33.3

15.4

-20.3-1.3

-7.7

Q4

10.7

18.0

30.5

16.9

0.20.7

-2.1

Q1

11.9

19.6

26.4

17.9

28.72.2

5.2

Q2

10.3

17.6

25.5

18.5

40.92.9

6.8

Q3

9.6

13.5

24.5

18.4

32.53.5

4.5

Sep

-

13.3

24.5

18.8

25.13.6

4.3

Oct

-

13.1

24.4

18.6

22.94.4

5.0

Annual

-5.2

-21.8

-2.2

-33.1

-1.4

Q1

-4.4

-20.1

-3.9

-46.9

-0.1

Q2

2.3

6.6

-0.9

-38.6

-1.0

Q3

-0.1

5.3

-3.4

-35.5

-2.2

Q4

0.9

5.9

-0.7

-8.7

-2.0

Q1

1.2

7.0

3.8

44.8

-1.2

Q2

0.4

1.5

3.7

35.2

-0.9

Q3

0.9

-1.8

3.2

19.0

-0.8

Sep

-

-1.6

1.4

15.9

-0.6

Oct

-

-1.8

-0.2

-

0.2

Annual

-4.0

-14.8

-2.3

-18.2

0.3

Q1

-2.5

-9.2

-1.0

-21.1

1.0

Q2

-0.1

-1.7

-0.1

-22.7

0.2

Q3

0.4

2.7

-0.2

-18.7

-0.4

Q4

0.2

1.3

0.1

-9.3

0.4

Q1

0.4

2.3

0.5

12.9

1.1

Q2

1.0

2.3

0.1

22.3

1.5

Q3

0.4

0.9

0.5

22.6

1.7

Sep

-

-0.7

-0.1

22.2

1.8

Oct

-

-

0.5

-

1.9

Eurozone


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Economic Bulletin 7

Eurozone GDP growth and industrial production

Source: Eurostat

Japans GDP growth

Source: Cabinet Office & Ministry of Economy, Trade and Industry, Japan

Chinas GDP and fixed asset investment

Source: National Bureau of Statistics of China1-4

1-5

1-6


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8 December 2010

2. Private consumption

Private consumption (preliminary GDP) increased 1.3 percent quarter-on-quarter and 3.3

percent year-on-year in the third quarter of 2010.

Consumer goods sales in October shifted to a month-on-month increase for the first time in

three months, recording a highest rise since January 2009, as semi-durable goods sales jumped.

On a month-on-month basis, consumer goods sales went up 0.2 percent backed by strongsemi-durable goods sales such as clothing sales (up 5.7 percent), although durable goods

sales such as automobiles sales (down 2.2 percent) and non-durable goods sales such as

grocery sales (down 0.7 percent) fell.

On a year-on-year basis, the index, despite a fall in durable goods sales, increased 4.2

percent thanks to improving sales of durable goods such as computer and communications

equipment and semi-durable goods such as clothing and hobby related products.

Sales at large discounters declined for the first time since January 2010, while those at

department stores and specialized retailers accelerated an increase.


Consumer goods sales

(Seasonally adjusted)2

- Durable goods3

Automobiles

- Semi-durable goods4

- Non-durable goods5

1. Preliminary

2. Percentage change from previous period

3. Durable goods: Automobiles, electronic appliances, furniture, telecommunications devices, etc.

4. Semi-durable goods: Clothing, footwear, etc.

5. Non-durable goods: Food, medicine, cosmetics, fuel, tobaccos, etc.

Source: Statistics Korea

2009 20101


- Department stores

- Large discounters

- Specialized retailers2


Private consumption2


2008 2009 20101

1. Preliminary 2. National accounts 3. Percentage change from previous period

Source: The Bank of Korea

Annual Annual Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3

1.3 0.2 -4.4 -1.0 0.7 5.8 6.3 3.7 3.3

- - 0.3 3.3 1.7 0.4 0.7 0.8 1.3

2009 20101

1. Preliminary

2. Specialized retailers are defined as stores carrying a few (1 to 3) specialized items.


Annual

2.6

-

8.1

21.8

0.3

1.2

Q1

-4.7

1.0

-11.9

-20.6

-1.5

-1.4

Q2

1.5

5.1

5.7

20.1

-0.6

0.5

Q3

2.8

0.3

7.9

24.1

-0.7

1.9

Q4

10.8

4.1

33.9

76.9

3.4

4.1

Q1

9.9

0.5

29.5

48.6

2.7

3.3

Q2

4.9

0.0

5.4

-2.1

6.9

3.5

Q3

7.4

2.8

16.7

12.0

7.2

2.9

Sep

4.4

0.0

7.5

-6.0

7.2

2.1

Oct

4.2

0.2

14.2

6.1

12.6

-4.7

Annual

3.3

-2.0

2.9

Q1

-0.8

-4.4

-6.6

Q2

0.4

-2.9

2.6

Q3

4.2

-3.4

3.5

Q4

9.1

3.2

12.6

Q1

9.0

5.9

9.7

Q2

10.4

3.7

1.7

Q3

8.0

7.3

7.1

Sep

6.1

10.7

3.3

Oct

12.1

-0.9

3.6


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Economic Bulletin 9

Consumer goods sales

Source: Statistics Korea (industrial activity trend)

Private consumption

Source: The Bank of Korea (national accounts)2-1

2-2

2-3 Consumer goods sales by type



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10 December 2010

Consumer goods sales is projected to continue an upward trend as consumer sentiment is

expected to improve in line with increasing employment and household income, and

considering positive advanced estimates. Nominal income rose at a faster rate while

employment continued to recover.

Nominal income (y-o-y, %)

-1.2 (Q1 2009) 1.9 (Q4) 6.0 (Q1, 2010) 6.2 (Q2) 7.8 (Q3)

Employment (y-o-y, thousand)

314 (Jun 2010) 473 (Jul) 386 (Aug) 249 (Sep) 316 (Oct)

Consumer sentiment went up, which shows growing confidence in improving economy and

increasing consumption.

Consumer Sentiment Index (CSI, base=100)

112 (Jun 2010) 112 (Jul) 110 (Aug) 109 (Sep) 108 (Oct) 110 (Nov)

Both domestic credit card spending and department store sales continued a steady increase

year-on-year, with the former rising 16.0 percent and the latter 8.1 percent.

Sales at large discounters and gasoline sales, which showed little change in the previous

month, turned to an increase year-on-year, up 1.9 percent and 12.5 percent, respectively.

Consumer goods imports rose at a faster pace year-on-year by 31.8 percent, led by non-

durable consumer goods which soared 46.1 percent.

Value of credit card use (y-o-y, %)15.3 (Jun 2010) 17.1 (Jul) 17.2 (Aug) 10.6 (Sep) 19.5 (Oct) 16.0 (Nov)

Department store sales (y-o-y, %)

11.3 (Jun 2010) 0.1 (Jul) 8.5 (Aug) 6.4 (Sep) 3.3 (Oct) 8.1 (Nov)

Large discounter sales (y-o-y, %)


Domestic sales of gasoline (y-o-y, %)

4.6 (Jun 2010) 5.3 (Jul) 8.6 (Aug) 10.5 (Sep) -0.7 (Oct) 12.5 (Nov)

Consumer goods imports (y-o-y, %)


Source: Ministry of Knowledge Economy

The Credit Finance Association

Korea Automobile Manufacturers Association

Korea National Oil Corporation

The Korea Customs Service

Ministry of Strategy and Finance (for November data)

There is a possibility that consumer spending will grow at a limited pace given possible price

increases in raw materials including oil and agricultural products.

Dubai crude (US$/barrel)

76.8 (May 2010) 74.1 (Jun) 72.6 (Jul) 74.2 (Aug) 75.2 (Sep) 80.3 (Oct) 83.6 (Nov)

CRB index

259.3 (May 2010) 258.0 (Jun) 262.1 (Jul) 269.82 (Aug) 278.0 (Sep) 295.5 (Oct) 305.2 (Nov)


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Department store and discount store sales (current value)

Source: Ministry of Knowledge Economy (monthly retail sales)2-4

2-5

2-6 Consumer sentiment index


Domestic automobile sales

Source: Korea Automobile Manufacturers Association (monthly automobile industry trend)

Economic Bulletin 11


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12 December 2010

3. Facility investment

Facility investment (preliminary GDP) in the third quarter of 2010 posted a quarter-on-quarter

increase of 5.5 percent and a year-on-year gain of 24.3 percent.

Facility investment in October rose 10.2 percent year-on-year but fell 9.5 percent month-on-

month, as machinery investment, in particular that in semiconductor equipment, slowed

down, and transportation equipment investment, in particular that in other transportation

equipment, declined.

Although facility investment decelerated an increase due to a high base effect, the positive

trend is projected to continue given that machinery imports and other leading indicators

show upward movements.


Facility investment2


- Machinery

- Transportation equipment

1. Preliminary 2. National accounts 3. Percentage change from previous period


2008 2009 20101

Annual

-1.0

-

-1.8

1.8

Annual

-9.1

-

-13.0

4.7

Q1

-23.1

-10.5

-23.2

-22.6

Q2

-17.3

9.0

-21.5

-2.9

Q3

-7.0

10.8

-14.8

22.9

Q4

13.3

5.3

10.0

24.2

Q1

29.9

2.4

32.5

19.4

Q2

30.2

9.1

38.7

4.8

Q3

24.3

5.5

36.6

-11.2


Facility investment


- Machinery

- Transportation equipmentDomestic machinery orders


- Public

- Private

- Machinery imports

Facility investmentadjustment pressure3

1. Preliminary


3. Production growth rate minus production capacity growth rate in the manufacturing sector (%p)

Sources: Statistics Korea, the Korea International Trade Association (machinery imports data)

2008 2009 20101

Annual

0.8

-

0.6

1.1-13.8

-

5.0

-15.5

6.4

-1.7

Annual

-8.2

-

-12.8

11.7-11.8

-

61.7

-19.9

-16.6

-4.0

Q4

10.0

12.1

8.7

15.020.0

-9.9

-27.2

35.2

7.2

12.8

Q1

25.5

1.4

29.3

11.910.5

-1.4

-43.7

22.9

48.1

21.7

Q2

24.5

6.0

32.2

0.024.2

16.7

-41.2

34.9

51.4

14.4

Q3

27.7

7.1

37.0

-0.8-0.7

-0.8

-72.2

21.9

40.0

5.7

Aug

40.4

6.4

51.8

0.826.6

-7.8

42.5

25.8

59.6

10.4

Sep

11.9

-3.5

19.5

-10.54.5

5.9

-16.2

7.1

24.8

-2.5

Oct

10.2

-9.5

13.9

-2.712.1

-15.4

18.5

11.7

33.0

7.2


Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov

Business survey indices (base=100) for107 106 106 106 105 102

manufacturing facility investment projections

2010


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Machinery orders and estimated facility investment (3-month average)


Machinery imports

Source: Korea International Trade Association (KITA)

Facility investment by type


3-2

3-3


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14 December 2010

4. Construction investment

Construction investment (preliminary GDP ) in the third quarter of 2010 rose 1.3 percent

quarter-on-quarter, while decreasing 2.3 percent year-on-year.

Construction completed (constant value) in October fell 10.4 percent month-on-month and

9.5 percent year-on-year, as both building construction and civil engineering works

decreased, due to weak construction sentiment and slow SOC budget spending.

Construction completed and the leading indicator of construction orders stayed in negativeterritory, leading to weak construction sentiment. However there have been some signs of

recovery in construction and housing markets recently, which requires a close watch on how

they develop.


Construction investment2


- Building construction

- Civil engineering works

1. Preliminary

2. National accounts



2008 2009 20101

Annual

-2.8

-

-4.6

-0.2

Annual

4.4

-

-1.8

13.3

Q1

2.8

5.9

-9.6

26.1

Q2

5.1

1.8

-2.4

15.7

Q3

4.4

-0.7

1.2

9.7

Q4

5.0

-0.1

2.5

7.5

Q1

2.3

1.3

1.7

3.1

Q2

-2.9

-3.6

-6.3

1.1

Q3

-2.3

1.3

-9.7

8.5


Construction completed(constant value)




Construction orders (current value)




Building permit area

1. Preliminary


Source: Statistics Korea, the Ministry of Land, Transport and Maritime Affairs

2008 2009 2010 1

Annual

-8.1

-

-10.3

2.2

-7.6

-

-15.4

13.5

-20.1

Annual

1.7

-

-6.5

-5.7

3.0

-

-16.0

41.9

-12.9

Q4

5.0

-1.3

0.7

11.4

11.6

19.8

17.0

3.7

13.1

Q1

2.0

5.4

-0.1

4.8

-6.9

-22.5

-0.4

-14.2

36.5

Q2

-3.9

-2.2

-8.5

2.8

-6.6

11.5

60.1

-51.5

47.4

Q3

-3.8

-2.8

-11.9

9.3

-5.0

-0.2

-2.5

-8.7

-14.3

Aug

3.6

-5.5

-5.9

19.1

-13.9

-40.9

-24.9

23.2

-4.6

Sep

-14.8

-3.5

-21.3

-4.7

-18.4

27.7

11.1

-46.3

-33.0

Oct

-9.5

-10.4

-14.1

-2.6

-59.6

-56.7

-38.9

-80.3

15.9

Source: The Construction and Economy Research Institute of Korea

Sep Oct Nov Dec

Business survey indices (base=100)71.5 67.8 75.6 81.3

for construction projections

2010


16/73


Leading indicators of construction investment

Source: Statistics Korea (construction orders)

Ministry of Land, Transport and Maritime Affairs (building construction permit area)

Construction completed and housing construction

Source: Statistics Korea (construction completed)

Kookmin Bank (housing construction)

Construction investment


4-2

4-3


17/73

16 December 2010

5. Exports and imports

Exports in November increased 24.6 percent (preliminary) year-on-year to US$42.36 billion.

Although the November exports, due to a drop in vessel exports, slowed down from the

previous month when exports hit an all-time high, the index continued an upward trajectory.

By export category, major items such as semiconductors, automobiles and petroleum

products maintained a high growth rate, while wireless communications device which had

been stagnant increased for the second consecutive month.

Major export increase (preliminary, %)

Semiconductors (36.3), steel (33.0), petroleum products (30.4), automobiles (21.8), wireless communications

device (5.9), vessels (-3.8)

By regional category, exports to China and other emerging countries, and to the US, Japan

and other developed countries both soared, whereas exports to EU fell as worries over the

European fiscal crisis resurfaced.

Imports in November jumped 31.2 percent (preliminary) year-on-year to US$38.75 billion, as

imports of raw materials and, capital and consumer goods all increased, the former affected

by increases in prices and seasonal demand, and the latter recovering domestic demand.

The current account surplus in November (preliminary) was US$3.61, staying in the black for

ten consecutive months, while the surplus decreased from the previous month as imports

rose considerably.

Raw materials (y-o-y, %)

39.0 (Q1 2010) 53.6 (Q2) 30.7 (Q3) 18.2 (Oct) 33.7 (Nov1)

Capital goods (y-o-y, %)

36.8 (Q1 2010) 31.5 (Q2) 38.1 (Q3) 26.2 (Oct) 26.6 (Nov1)

Consumer goods (y-o-y, %)28.2 (Q1 2010) 25.9 (Q2) 25.6 (Q3) 24.6 (Oct) 31.8 (Nov1)

1. Preliminary

(US$ billion)

Exports

(y-o-y, %)

Average daily exports

Imports

(y-o-y, %)

Average daily imports

2008 2009 2010

Annual

422.01

13.6

1.53

435.27

22.0

1.58

Annual

363.53

-13.9

1.30

323.09

-25.8

1.16

Q1

74.42

-25.2

1.10

71.42

-32.7

1.06

Q2

90.36

-21.1

1.30

73.97

-35.6

1.06

Q3

94.78

-17.6

1.32

84.85

-31.0

1.18

Q4

103.97

11.7

1.49

92.85

1.4

1.33

Q1

101.36

36.2

1.51

98.08

37.3

1.46

Q2

120.31

33.1

1.76

105.86

43.1

1.55

Q3

117.27

23.7

1.69

105.66

23.5

1.52

Oct

43.36

27.6

1.84

36.88

21.3

1.57

Nov1

42.36

24.6

1.77

38.75

31.2

1.61

1. Preliminary

Source: Korea Customs Service

(US$ billion)

Trade Balance

2008 2009 2010

Annual

-13.27

Annual

40.45

Q1

3.00

Q2

16.39

Q3

9.94

Q4

11.12

Q1

3.27

Q2

14.44

Q3

11.61

Oct

6.48

Nov1

3.61

1. Preliminary

Source: Korea Customs Service


18/73


Imports (customs clearance basis)

Source: Korea Customs Service & Ministry of Knowledge Economy (export and import trend)

Trade balance


Exports (customs clearance basis)


5-1

5-2

5-3


19/73

18 December 2010

6. Mining and manufacturing production

Mining and manufacturing production in October, while improving 13.5 percent year-on-

year, fell 4.2% month-on-month due to production adjustment in semiconductors and

automobiles.

By business category, chemical products (up 4.2%) and basic metal (up 3.8%) rose month-

on-month, while semiconductors and parts (down 8.7%) and automobiles (down 12.4%)

went down.

Shipments and inventories fell month-on-month by 3.4 percent and 1.2 percent, respectively,

while staying on an upward track year-on-year.

By business category, the shipments of semiconductors and parts (up 16.8%), and

machineries (up 38.3%) rose year-on-year, while those of clothing and fur (down 18.0%) and

other transportation equipment (down 0.7%) declined. The inventories of semiconductors

and parts (up 59.7%) and automobiles (up 38.4%) increased year-on-year while those of

clothing and fur (down 18.0%) and leather and shoes (down 12.2%) fell.

The average operation ratio of the manufacturing sector lost 2.0 percentage points to 79.5

percent from the previous month, while the ratio excluding semiconductors and automobiles

posted a slight increase.

Mining and manufacturing production in October decreased in line with semiconductor and

automobile production which had surged just after the crisis returning to normal. Given

rising exports and improving production in major industries, mining and manufacturing

production is expected to increase.

Exports (y-o-y, %)

30.6 (Jun 2010) 27.5 (Jul) 28.3 (Aug) 16.2 (Sep) 27.6 (Oct) 24.6 (Nov1)

Automobile production (thousand, m-o-m, %)391 (Jun 2010) 378 (Jul) 282 (Aug) 339 (Sep) 387 (Oct) 389 (Nov1)

1. Preliminary

Production (q-o-q, m-o-m)

(y-o-y)

- Manufacturing

ICT 3

Automobiles

Shipment

- Domestic demand

- Exports

Inventory4

Average operation ratio (%)

Production capacity

1. Preliminary

2. Including mining, manufacturing, electricity and gas industry

3. Information and Communications Technology

4. End-period



Mining andmanufacturingactivity2

Manufacturingactivity

2009 20101

Annual

-

-0.8

-0.97.8

-6.8

-1.7

-1.8

-1.7

-8.0

74.6

3.1

Sep

4.2

11.1

11.514.9

32.5

8.8

12.6

4.0

-14.2

79.9

3.6

Q4

1.3

16.2

16.846.3

14.7

12.8

12.3

13.3

-8.0

78.4

4.0

Q1

5.1

25.8

26.846.1

51.0

21.8

21.2

22.5

6.6

80.5

5.1

Q2

5.0

19.5

20.227.0

35.7

17.2

15.4

19.7

15.6

83.0

5.8

Q3

5.0

19.5

20.227.0

35.7

17.2

15.4

19.7

15.6

83.0

5.8

Aug

-1.3

16.9

17.222.0

24.4

16.5

13.6

20.2

18.9

81.6

6.9

Oct

-4.2

13.5

13.613.5

21.0

13.5

10.9

16.8

18.7

79.5

6.4

Sep

-0.4

3.9

4.016.1

2.7

3.7

-0.9

9.8

18.1

81.5

6.5


20/73


Average manufacturing operation ratio


6-1

6-2

6-3



Inventory



21/73

20 December 2010

7. Service sector activity

Service activity in October increased 0.5 percent month-on-month as various international

events such as Pusan International Film Festival (PIFF) and Formula 1 Korean Grand Prix

contributed to the accelerated growth of entertainment, cultural & sports services. In

addition, professional, scientific & technical services and educational services shifted to an

increase.

On a year-on-year basis, real estate & renting, professional, scientific & technical services,

and educational services showed sluggishness while cultural services, transportation services

and business facilities management services turned for the better, increasing 3.0 percent.

Service activity in November is expected to increase from the previous month as domestic

consumption improves following a recovery in employment and income conditions.

Meanwhile, service activity is expected to be weighed down by sluggish rental market and

worries over geopolitical risks.


Annual Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Sep Oct

Service activity index 100 2.0 -0.3 2.4 1.9 3.7 5.7 4.0 2.3 -0.9 3.0

21.8 -0.4 -4.8 -2.2 0.3 5.4 7.4 5.5 4.9 1.9 3.5

9.0 -6.6 -12.7 -10.0 -4.8 1.4 13.9 13.8 9.7 4.4 10.7

7.7 -1.5 -2.6 -0.6 -2.5 -0.2 1.5 0.9 1.8 -0.8 4.6

8.4 0.7 -1.4 1.6 1.4 1.8 1.2 0.4 1.7 -0.3 2.3

15.3 8.0 6.9 10.3 9.0 5.7 6.5 2.4 1.9 -0.9 6.8

6.3 5.3 -4.2 -2.2 6.7 21.3 10.4 -2.7 -16.2 -18.1 -23.1

4.8 1.0 -1.7 3.8 0.0 2.0 3.1 2.1 -5.2 -12.1 -5.6

2.9 -3.0 -4.9 -6.2 -0.8 0.0 5.4 7.9 7.0 8.6 7.3

10.8 2.8 9.4 16.5 -3.7 -9.6 -0.8 1.0 0.0 -6.1 -0.2

6.0 10.4 8.9 8.9 10.4 13.2 11.5 11.1 8.5 7.3 6.0

2.9 -0.5 1.4 0.7 0.0 -3.8 -3.5 -0.2 -0.2 -1.3 12.8

3.8 -2.4 -3.8 -4.8 -1.4 2.4 1.3 6.0 5.0 3.6 5.6

0.4 3.7 0.1 9.0 6.0 -0.2 7.2 5.3 0.2 -4.1 7.2

Weight2009

- Wholesale & retail

- Transportation services

- Hotels & restaurants

- Information & communication services

- Financial & insurance services

- Real estate & renting

- Professional, scientific & technical services

- Business services

- Educational services

- Healthcare & social welfare services

- Entertainment, cultural & sports services

- Membership organizations

- Sewerage & waste management

20101

1. PreliminarySource: Statistics Korea


22/73


October 2010 service industry by business

Source: Statistics Korea (service industry activity trend)

7-1

7-2

7-3

Service industry


Wholesale and retail sales


Totalin

dex

Who

lesale

&retail

Tran

sportatio

n

Hotels

&re

staurants

Info

rmation

&comm

unica

tions

Real

estate

&renting

Professional,s

cientifi

c&

techni

cals

ervic

es

Busin

essfacilit

yman

agem

ent&

busin

esssupport

servi

ces

Educatio

nals

ervic

es

Healthc

are&

socialw

elfa

re

servi

ces

Ente

rtainm

ent,

cultu

ral&

sports

servi

ces

Membe

rship

organiz

ation

s,repair

&othe

rpersonals

ervic

es

Sewe

rage

,waste

mana

geme

nt,

materials

recovery&

remedia

tion

activitie

s

Finan

cial&

insuran

ceservi

ces


23/73

22 December 2010

8. Employment

The number of workers on payroll in October increased by 316,000 from a year earlier, while

the employment rate (seasonally adjusted) rose by 0.1 percentage point year-on-year to

59.4 percent.

By industry, employment in manufacturing (up 241,000), construction (up 94,000) and

services (up 54,000) climbed while that in agriculture, forestry & fishery (down 55,000)

declined. Hiring in manufacturing maintained a high growth rate, rising more than 0.2 million

for the fourth consecutive month.

Despite decreasing employment in public administration (down 207,000), the service sector

continued to increase, helped by a rise in health & welfare (up 158,000) and business

assistance (up 92,000).

By status of workers, despite a decrease in daily workers (down 84,000) and temporary

workers (down 81,000), wage workers (up 488,000) continued to expand growth as the

number of regular workers (up 652,000) increased. Non-wage workers (down 172,000)

including self-employed workers (down 146,000) continued to decline.

Annual Annual Oct Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Sep Oct

Number of employed (million) 23.58 23.51 23.82 22.90 23.74 23.75 23.63 23.04 24.17 24.12 24.05 24.17

Employment rate (%) 59.5 58.6 59.3 57.4 59.3 59.1 58.7 57.0 59.6 59.3 59.1 59.4

(seasonally adjusted) 59.5 58.6 58.6 58.8 58.6 58.7 58.5 58.3 58.9 58.9 58.6 58.6

Employment growth (y-o-y, thousand) 145 -72 10 -146 -134 -1 -6 132 433 369 249 316

(Excluding agriculture, forestry & fishery) 182 -34 39 -160 -109 24 110 296 51.8 414 307 371

- Manufacturing -52 -126 -87 -163 -151 -143 -49 61 172 262 252 241

- Construction -37 -91 -147 -43 -113 -103 -107 -61 44 92 49 94

- Services 260 179 262 38 154 261 261 313 325 83 31 54

- Agriculture, forestry & fishery -37 -38 -29 14 -25 -25 -116 -164 -85 -45 -58 -55

- Wage workers 236 247 376 73 175 356 385 371 623 541 416 488

Regular workers 386 383 490 318 313 386 515 651 766 671 611 652

Temporary workers -93 22 136 -136 -5 125 105 -37 42 -26 -45 -81

Daily workers -57 -158 -250 -108 -133 -155 -235 -243 -185 -104 -151 -84

- Non-wage workers -92 -319 -367 -220 -309 -357 -391 -239 -189 -172 -167 -172

Self-employed workers -79 -259 -266 -197 -286 -276 -279 -106 -91 -130 -131 -146

- Male 96 31 59 -23 24 34 89 117 188 207 161 228

- Female 48 -103 -50 -124 -158 -34 -94 15 245 163 88 87

- 15 to 29 -119 -127 -139 -212 -99 -123 -77 -12 -58 -44 -58 -42

- 30 to 39 -26 -173 -175 -159 -213 -169 -149 -42 -13 21 -7 19

- 40 to 49 64 -24 -18 8 -27 -30 -46 -21 48 40 26 25

- 50 to 59 207 198 220 193 156 211 230 251 342 295 262 290

- 60 or more 18 54 122 23 49 109 37 -44 114 57 26 23

2009 20102008



24/73


Share of employed by industry

Source: Statistics Korea (employment trend)

8-1

8-2

8-3 Share of employed by status of workers


Number of employed and employment growth



25/73

24 December 2010

The number of unemployed persons in October increased by 33,000 year-on-year to record

832,000 as people who applied for census jobs but were not selected were counted as

unemployed persons. The unemployment rate (seasonally adjusted) rose 0.1 percentage

point to record 3.3 percent.

By gender, male unemployment (down 5,000) decelerated the decrease while femaleunemployment (up 38,000) continued to increase.

By age, unemployment increased in all age brackets except youths aged 15 to 29 (down

23,000). The youth unemployment dropped 0.5 percentage points, recording 7.0 percent.

The economically inactive population in October was up 130,000 from a year earlier to post

15,710,000. Meanwhile, the labor force participation rate (seasonally adjusted) was up 0.1

percentage point year-on-year to 61.4 percent.

The number of workers quitting jobs due to housework (up 234,000), and education (up

37,000) increased, while those who quit jobs due to childcare (down 125,000) and rest,

time-off and leisure (down 25,000) decreased.

2009 20102008

Annual Q4 Annual Oct Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Aug Sep OctEconomically inactive population (million) 15.25 15.37 15.70 15.58 16.09 15.35 15.53 15.83 16.25 15.49115.66 15.82 15.77 15.71

Labor force participation rate (%) 61.5 61.3 60.6 61.3 59.7 61.7 61.3 60.7 59.8 61.8 61.5 61.1 61.2 61.4

(seasonally adjusted) 61.5 61.2 60.6 60.7 60.9 60.9 61.0 60.6 61.0 61.0 61.1 61.1 60.9 60.8

Growth in economically inactive297 372 447 437 514 445 374 456 166 146 128 172 199 130

population (y-o-y, thousand)

- Childcare 63 53 40 56 78 48 19 15 -118 -126 -149 -148 -160 -125

- Housework 61 59 148 113 131 125 100 235 237 175 303 204 229 234

- Education 113 109 31 -4 90 58 11 -36 -74 23 46 83 54 37

- Old age 76 59 88 92 52 102 105 92 193 59 43 39 28 1

- Rest 31 99 123 136 162 112 94 123 -187 -27 15 18 68 -25

2009 20102008


Annual Q4 Annual Oct Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Aug Sep Oct

Number of unemployed (thousand) 769 757 889 799 908 943 886 817 1,130 868 873 831 857 832

Unemployment growth (y-o-y, thousand) -14 24 119 63 107 176 134 60 222 -75 -13 -74 32 33

- Male -12 25 80 41 83 116 95 25 83 -47 -48 -83 -40 -5- Female -1 -1 40 23 24 60 39 36 139 -29 -35 9 72 38

Unemployment rate (%) 3.2 3.1 3.6 3.2 3.8 3.8 3.6 3.3 4.7 3.5 3.5 3.3 3.4 3.3

(Seasonally adjusted) 3.2 3.2 3.6 3.5 3.5 3.9 3.7 3.5 4.3 3.4 3.6 3.4 3.7 3.6

- 15 to 29 7.2 7.0 8.1 7.5 8.6 8.0 8.1 7.6 9.5 7.7 7.6 7.0 7.2 7.0

- 30 to 39 3.1 3.3 3.6 3.3 3.7 3.9 3.5 3.3 3.9 3.6 3.5 3.6 3.5 3.4

- 40 to 49 2.1 2.0 2.4 2.2 2.5 2.6 2.4 2.3 2.9 2.3 2.5 2.3 2.7 2.4

- 50 to 59 2.0 2.1 2.5 2.1 2.4 2.7 2.5 2.2 3.2 2.1 2.3 2.1 2.3 2.3

- 60 or more 1.2 1.1 1.6 1.3 1.6 1.9 1.6 1.5 5.8 2.1 2.0 1.8 1.9 1.8



26/73


Unemployment rate and youth unemployment rate


8-4

8-5

8-6 Economically active population


Employment rate



27/73


28/73


9-1

9-2

9-3 Recent foreign exchange rate

Foreign exchange rate (month-end)

Stock prices


29/73

28 December 2010

9.3 Bond market

Treasury bond yields marginally increased in November with expectations of a rate hike.

Early in the month, Treasury bond yields rose amid prospects of a rate hike and concerns

over regulations associated with capital flows. However, Treasury bond yields decelerated

growth as expectations of a rate freeze until the year-end spread and industrial activities in

October showed sluggishness.

9.4 Money supply & money market

The M2 (monthly average) in September expanded 7.9 percent from a year earlier excluding

cash management accounts (CMAs), which were included in M2 since July 2009. The year-

on-year M2 growth decelerated in September from the previous month of 8.3 percent due to

a smaller money supply from overseas sectors including foreign equity investment funds.

In October, bank deposits turned to a rise as money market deposit accounts (MMDA)

significantly increased following the inflow of treasury surplus in the end-month. Expanded

amounts of time deposits led by money inflows from local governments also contributed to

the trend.

Asset management company (AMC) deposits slightly increased due to declining redemption

in equity funds and the inflow of treasury surplus into money market funds (MMFs).

Dec Dec Dec Dec Sep Oct Nov Change1

Call rate (1 day) 4.60 5.02 3.02 2.01 2.27 2.26 2.51 +25

CD (91 days) 4.86 5.82 3.93 2.88 2.66 2.66 2.80 +14

Treasury bonds (3 yrs) 4.92 5.74 3.41 4.44 3.32 3.25 3.19 -6

Corporate bonds (3 yrs) 5.29 6.77 7.72 5.56 4.26 4.03 4.03 0

Treasury bonds (5 yrs) 5.00 5.78 3.77 4.98 3.71 3.86 3.88 +2

(End-period)

1. Basis point changes in November 2010 from the previous month

20102009200820072006

Annual Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Annual Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Sep Sep1

M12 -1.8 -12.4 -0.1 2.1 5.0 16.3 10.8 17.6 18.9 17.8 14.5 10.7 10.8 10.2 404

M2 14.3 13.3 15.3 14.7 13.8 10.1 11.5 10.1 9.5 9.3 8.8 8.8 - 7.9 1,649

Lf 3 11.9 11.6 12.8 12.1 11.2 Upper 7 8.8 7.3 7.5 7.4 8.1 8.6 - 7.5 2,110

(Percentage change from same period in previous year, average)

1. Balance at end September 2010, trillion won

2. M1 excluding corporate MMFs and individual MMFs while including CMAs

3. Liquidity aggregates of financial institutions (mostly identical with M3)

4. Preliminary

2009 20102008

Annual Oct Annual Oct Aug Sep Oct Oct1

Bank deposits 104.3 22.7 54.8 -6.8 -3.5 -3.3 13.7 1,055

AMC deposits 63.0 2.4 -27.6 -7.3 0.6 -2.0 0.1 326

(Monthly change, end-period, trillion won)

1. Balance at end September, trillion won

2008 2009 2010


30/73


Total money supply


Interest rates

Source: The Bank of Korea9-4

9-5

9-6 Share of deposits by financial sector (M3 as of year-end)


* Retail finance: Mutual savings banks & National Credit Union Federation of Korea, Others: Investment banks, post office savings, etc.


31/73

30 December 2010

10. Balance of payments

Koreas current account surplus (preliminary) expanded in October from the previous month

to record US$5.37 billion.

The goods account surplus increased to post US$6.54 billion from the previous months

US$3.95 billion driven by robust exports of key products including semiconductors.

The service account deficit narrowed to post US$1.69 billion from the previous months

deficit of US$1.96 billion as the transportation account surplus widened while the travel

account deficit was slashed.

The income account surplus slightly increased to US$760 million from US$510 million a

month earlier while the current transfer account deficit marginally widened to US$240

million from the previous months deficit of US$160 million.

The capital and financial account (preliminary) in October shifted to an outflow as locals

overseas investment increased and financial institutions redeemed borrowings.

Capital & financial account balance (US$ million)

5,710 (Q1 2010) -4,420 (Q2) -30 (Q3); -3,960 (Oct)

The direct investment account accelerated the net outflow to register US$6.13 billion from the

previous months deficit of US$3.60 billion as locals overseas investment significantly increased.

The portfolio investment account greatly expanded the net inflow to US$7.45 billion from

US$4.41 billion a month earlier as foreigners investments in the Korean stock market

increased amid expectations of the new round of US quantitative easing.

The financial derivatives account deficit narrowed to post US$100 million from the previous months

deficit of US$370 million as losses from overseas financial derivative transactions decreased.

The other investment account deficit increased to US$5.13 billion from the previous months

deficit of US$240 million due to financial institutions redemption of borrowings.

The current account is expected to remain in surplus, although diminishing in amount, owing

to an increase in imports associated with domestic consumption recovery and rising price of

raw materials.

Annual Annual Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Aug Sep Oct Jan-Oct

Current account -5.78 42.67 8.62 13.10 10.40 10.56 1.34 10.28 2.19 4.06 5.37 29.00

- Goods balance 5.67 56.13 8.31 17.58 14.70 15.54 7.43 15.65 3.81 5.67 6.54 46.22

- Service balance -16.67 -17.20 -1.93 -4.17 -5.33 -5.77 -6.04 -4.17 -1.78 -1.96 -1.69 -17.14

- Income balance 5.90 4.55 0.92 0.29 1.69 1.65 0.76 -0.75 0.61 0.51 0.76 2.31

- Current transfers -0.67 -0.81 1.31 -0.60 -0.66 -0.86 -0.81 -0.45 -0.45 -0.16 -0.24 -2.40

(US$ billion)2009 20102008



32/73


Capital & financial account balance

Source: The Bank of Korea (balance of payments trend)

Travel balance

Source: The Bank of Korea (balance of payments trend)

Current account balance

Source: The Bank of Korea (balance of payments trend)10-1

10-2

10-3


33/73

32 December 2010

11. Prices and international commodity prices

11.1 Prices

Consumer prices stabilized in November as the price of agricultural products, in particular,

plunged 9.8 percent from the previous month and public utility charges also fell. Novemberconsumer prices rose 3.3 percent year-on-year while on a monthly basis it fell 0.6 percent.

Core consumer prices, which exclude the prices of oil and agricultural products, rose at a

slower pace in November, suggesting that inflation remains stable. November core

consumer prices rose 1.8 percent year-on-year and 0.1 percent month-on-month. Consumer

prices of basic necessities, a barometer of perceived consumer prices, were up 3.6 percent

compared to the same month of the previous year.

Grain and fish prices posted a slight gain due to lower production levels, but the overall price

of agricultural and livestock products were down 6.5 percent from the previous month due

to a sharp fall in vegetable prices

Prices of agricultural & livestock products in Nov (m-o-m, %)

Rice (7.5), cutlassfish (9.5), Chinese cabbage (-58.3), lettuce (-44.6), radish (-34.6), green onion (-19.0),

onion (-2.5), persimmon (-30.8), pear (-10.0), apple (0.7)

Although prices of durable goods and oil products surged due to high gold and oil prices,

prices of industrial products stabilized with a 0.2 percent rise month-on-month as prices of

other industrial products fell.

International gold prices (US$/ounce)

1,192 (July 2010) 1,219 (Aug) 1,273 (Sep) 1,344 (Oct) 1,370 (Nov)

International oil prices (Dubai crude, US$/barrel)72.6 (Jul) 74.2 (Aug) 75.2 (Sep) 80.3 (Oct) 83.5 (Nov)

Public utility charges stabilized due to factors such as lower gas prices (down 4.5%, m-o-m),

and personal service charges also remained steady.

Consumer price inflation in major sectors

Publicutility

Industrialproducts

Oilproducts

TotalAgricultural,

livestock & fisheryproducts

Housingrents

Personalservices

Month-on-Month (%) -0.6 -6.5 0.2 0.8 0.3 -0.5 0.1

Contribution (%p) -0.59 -0.65 0.05 0.05 0.02 -0.08 0.03

Year-on-Year (%) 3.3 17.9 2.1 5.0 2.2 0.8 2.3Contribution (%p) 3.26 1.47 0.68 0.29 0.21 0.13 0.79


Consumer price inflation

2009

Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct NovMonth-on-Month (%) 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.5 0.1 -0.2 0.3 0.3 1.1 0.2 -0.6

Year-on-Year (%) 2.4 2.8 3.1 2.7 2.3 2.6 2.7 2.6 2.6 2.6 3.6 4.1 3.3

Core consumer prices (y-o-y) 2.5 2.2 2.1 1.9 1.5 1.5 1.6 1.7 1.7 1.8 1.9 1.9 1.8

(m-o-m) 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.1

Consumer prices for basic

necessities (y-o-y)2.3 3.3 3.8 3.4 2.9 3.2 3.0 2.8 2.7 2.6 4.1 4.8 3.6

2010



34/73


35/73

34 December 2010

11.2. International oil and commodity prices

In October, international oil and domestic oil product prices rose from the previous month.

International oil prices (Dubai crude) poked above US$80 a barrel due to the US

governments announcement of extra quantitative easing, but the rise was limited asconcerns on the eurozone crisis resurfaced.

Record high oil prices (spot prices, US$/barrel)

Dubai crude: 141 (Jul 4, 2008), Brent crude: 145 (Jul 3, 2008), WTI crude: 146 (Jul 14, 2008)

Domestic oil product prices rose due to factors such as lower exchange rates and higher

international oil prices.

Won/dollar exchange rate (average)1,180 (Aug) 1,167 (Sep) 1,123 (Oct) 1,126 (Nov)

Prices of overall non-ferrous metals fell due to the possibility of a tighter monetary policy in

China. International grain prices were mixed despite expectations of lower production, as a

result of concerns regarding the eurozone crisis.

Non-ferrous metal prices climbed in early November on expectations of US quantitative

easing, but later fell when China, the worlds largest consumer of metals, raised its reserve

requirement ratio and suggested further austerity measures.

A decrease in grain production is expected to persist, but international grain prices were mixed

due to renewed concerns regarding the eurozone crisis and Chinas tighter monetary policy.

Prices of non-ferrous metals and grain in Nov (m-o-m, %)

Corn (1.5), wheat (-1.1), soybean (8.0), raw sugar (7.3), copper (1.8), aluminum (-0.8), nickel (-3.7), zinc (-3.8),

lead (-0.3)

(Won/liter, period average)

Annual Annual Annual May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov

Gasoline prices 1,526 1,692 1,601 1,732 1,715 1,722 1,716 1,700 1,700 1,716

Diesel prices 1,273 1,614 1,397 1,522 1,509 1,518 1,513 1,499 1,500 1,518

2007 2008 2009 2010

Source: Korea National Oil Corporation

(Period average)


2,400 2,536 2,079 2,273 2,285 2,477 2,687 2,765 2,824 2,952

200920082007

* A weighted average index of 17 major commodities

Source: KOREAPDS

2010


Dubai crude 68.4 94.3 61.9 76.8 74.1 72.6 74.2 75.2 80.3 83.6

Brent crude 72.8 97.5 61.7 75.2 74.9 75.7 77.2 77.9 83.2 85.8

WTI crude 72.3 99.9 61.9 73.7 75.3 76.3 76.6 75.3 81.9 84.4

(US$/barrel, period average)

2007 2008 2009 2010

Source: KOREAPDS

Reuters index*


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International oil prices

Source: Korea National Oil Corporation11-4

11-5

11-6 International commodity prices

Source: Bloomberg (CRB) & The Bank of Korea (Reuters index)* CRB demonstrates futures price index of 21 commodities listed on the US Commodity Transaction Market, including beans and other crops, crude oil and jewelry.

International oil prices (Dubai crude) and import prices

Source: Korea National Oil Corporation & Korea Customs Service


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Apartment prices by region

Source: Kookmin Bank (national housing price trend)

Weekly apartment sales prices and monthly transaction volume

Source: Kookmin Bank (weekly APT price trend) & Korea Land Corporation (monthly land trade trend)

Real estate prices

Source: Kookmin Bank (national housing price trend)12-1

12-2

12-3


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38 December 2010

12.2 Land market

Nationwide land prices in October were down 0.03 percent from the previous month, with

the pace of a decrease shown to be slightly decelerating. Land prices in October were 2.34

percent lower than the pre-crisis peak reached in October 2008.

Land prices in the Seoul metropolitan area fell for the fourth consecutive month (down

0.08%). Seoul posted the biggest price fall (down 0.13%), followed by Gyeonggi Province

(down 0.03%) and Incheon (down 0.02%).

Land price increases in Seoul metropolitan area (m-o-m, %)

0.03 (Jun) -0.04 (Jul) -0.04 (Aug) -0.09 (Sep) -0.08 (Oct)

Land price increases in areas excluding the Seoul metropolitan area (up 0.05%) continued in

October, led by Daejeon (up 0.14%) and South Gyeongsang province (up 0.07%).

Land price increases in areas excluding Seoul metropolitan area (m-o-m, %)

0.07 (Jun) 0.06 (Jul) 0.05 (Aug) 0.05 (Sep) 0.05 (Oct)

Nationwide land transactions in October recorded 181,000 land lots, increasing 24.9 percent

from the previous month and decreasing 14.6 percent from 212,000 a year earlier.

Land transactions in Busan (up 46.2%), Daegu (up 43.7%), and North Chungcheong

Province (up 41.2%) increased significantly.

(Percentage change from previous period)Land prices by region

Annual Q3 Annual Q3 Annual Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Annual1 Q1 Q2 Q3 Aug Sep Oct

Nationwide 3.88 0.92 -0.31 1.18 0.96 -1.20 0.35 0.88 0.94 0.94 0.70 0.29 -0.05 -0.01 -0.04 -0.03

Seoul 5.88 1.39 -1.00 1.59 1.40 -1.38 0.68 1.30 0.81 0.49 0.72 0.02 -0.25 -0.05 -0.13 -0.13

Gyeonggi 4.22 1.05 -0.26 1.28 1.22 -1.62 0.37 1.13 1.36 1.41 0.96 0.53 -0.08 -0.02 -0.05 -0.03

Incheon 4.86 1.11 1.37 2.01 1.99 -1.39 0.53 1.16 1.70 1.41 1.08 0.43 -0.10 -0.03 -0.06 -0.02

2007 2008 2009 2010

1. Jan-Oct aggregate total

Source: Korea Land & Housing Corporation

(Land lot, thousand)Land sales transactions

Annual1 Annual1 Annual1 Sep Oct Nov Dec Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct

Nationwide 208 208 203 206 226 212 207 168 213 203 177 183 171 163 145 181

Seoul 33 26 22 25 28 25 19 17 20 17 14 13 10 12 11 14

Gyeonggi 49 45 46 48 56 52 48 34 44 42 37 42 38 36 32 40

Incheon 13 13 10 10 13 14 11 7 9 9 10 8 8 7 7 8

2007 2008 2009 2010

1. Monthly average

Source: Korea Land & Housing Corporation


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Land trade volume

Source: Korea Land Corporation (land trade trend)

12-4

12-5

12-6

Land and consumer prices since 1970s

Source: Korea Land Corporation (land prices) & Statistics Korea (consumer prices)

Land prices by region

Source: Korea Land Corporation (land price trend)


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40 December 2010

13. Composite indices of business cycle indicators

The cyclical indicator of the coincident composite index fell 1.3 points month-on-month to

post 99.9 in October.

All components of the coincident composite index excluding the service activity were lower

compared to the previous month.

Components of coincident composite index in October (m-o-m)

Service activity index (0.2%), value of construction completed (-6.2%), manufacturing operation ratio index

(-2.1%), manufacturing production index (-1.9%), volume of imports (-1.8%), wholesale & retail sales index

(-1.5%), mining & domestic shipment index (-1.4%), number of non-farm payroll employment (-0.2%)

The year-on-year leading composite index in October fell 1.5 percentage points from the

previous month due to last years high base effect and a decline in leading composite index

this month.

Among the components of the leading composite index, only the composite stock price

index rose.

Components of the leading composite index in October (m-o-m)

composite stock price index (4.4%), value of construction orders received (-29.0%), value of machinery

orders received (-6.0%), consumer expectations index (-2.6p), Indicator of inventory cycle (-1.9%p), ratio of

job openings to job seekers (-1.5%p), value of capital goods imports (-0.7%), spreads between long & short

term interest rates (-0.2%p), net terms of trade index (-0.1%), liquidity in the financial institutions (-0.1%)

Apr May Jun Jul1 Aug1 Sep1 Oct1

Coincident composite index (m-o-m, %) 0.9 0.7 0.8 0.9 0.3 -0.4 -0.9

Cyclical indicator of coincident composite index 101.1 101.4 101.7 102.2 102.1 101.3 99.9

(m-o-m, p) 0.5 0.3 0.3 0.5 -0.1 -0.8 -1.3

Leading composite index (m-o-m, %) -0.2 0.6 0.3 0.9 0.2 -0.1 -0.7

12 month smoothed change8.6 8.0 7.1 6.8 5.9 4.9 3.4in leading composite index (%)

(m-o-m, %p) -1.1 -0.6 -0.9 -0.3 -0.9 -1.0 -1.5

1. Preliminary

2010

1. Preliminary


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Coincident and leading composite indices


13-1

13-2

13-3

Cyclical indicator of coincident composite index


Leading composite index



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2011 Economic outlook

The Korean economy is expected to grow around 5 percent in 2011 amid the global economy

steadily recovering and the domestic demand improving: Consumer spending to rise in the 4

percent range backed by increasing employment and income; facility investment to go up

around 7 percent with growing investment sentiment in line with recovering demand;financial markets continue to stabilize and business performance to improve; and

construction investment to add around 2 percent backed by rising private construction

despite slowing down civil engineering works.

In 2011 the private sector is expected to lead employment growth, with the total number of

workers hired gaining around 280,000. Consumer prices is likely to be affected by rising

international commodities prices and wages, increasing around 3 percent. The current

account surplus will shrink and is projected to be around US$16 billion with exports

increasing more or less 10 percent amid the recovering global economy, and imports rising

around 15 percent due to improving domestic demand and climbing oil prices.

42 December 2010

2011 Economic Policies

Policy Issues


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2011 Economic policies

The 2011 economic policies are directed towards 1) achieving sustainable recovery, 2)

supporting the working class, 3) nurturing future growth engines, and 4) expanding

overseas cooperation.

1. Achieving sustainable recovery through flexible macroeconomic management,

restructuring, and low inflation

To help the economy continue to recover, the government will keep the early budget

spending it has carried out since the outbreak of the global crisis, allocating 57 percent of

the budget in the first half of 2011. Foreign capital inflows and the level of liquidity will also

be closely monitored so that they cannot negatively affect prices and asset markets. Other

emerging economies situations as well as that of China will be checked regularly to respond

timely to their changes, along with efforts to diversify export markets to avoid dependence

on specific countries.

Economic restructuring will be pursued in household, corporate, finance, foreign capital, and

public sectors. The government will more tightly regulate the level of household debt with

total loan growth not exceeding GDP growth. Corporate restructuring will go on led by

creditor institutions, and they are scheduled to evaluate corporate risks within 2011: Large

conglomerates in May, large companies in June, and SMEs between July and October. Loans

to marginal firms will be phased out and start-ups phased in. Excessive loans to real estateprojects have been a serious future risk in the financial market. Loans to real estate projects

will be re-categorized, with tighter allowance reserve applied. Savings banks real estate

project loans, which currently account for 30 percent of the banks total credit, will be

reduced to 25 percent in 2011, and 20 percent by 2013.

To avoid the impact of sudden foreign capital movements spurred by loose monetary

policies in developed countries, the government will examine current systems related to the

foreign exchange market and introduce new ones if necessary: Under consideration are

setting new limits on banks foreign exchange forward position and imposing charges to

improve macro-prudence. To achieve a fiscal balance between 2013 and 2014, the


Real GDP (y-o-y, %) 6.1 Around 5

Employment (y-o-y, thousand) 310 280

Consumer prices (y-o-y, %) 2.9 Around 3Current account balance (US$ billion)1 29 16

2010 2011

1. IMFs new balance of payment statistics used


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government will keep the budget expenditure increase under control so that budgets rise 2-

3 percentage points slower than revenue increases. Public firms and other public institutions

will be under governments close watch, and those financially unhealthy will be required to

come up with plans for financial restructuring. To improve municipal governments fiscal

health, the government will limit the size of municipal governments debt, and the totalamount of local tax reduction will be determined based on the previous years reduction.

Measures to curb inflation involve securing supplies of agricultural products and diversifying

purchase channels in the wholesale market, providing necessitics price information through

Korea Consumer Agencys web site, regularly monitoring unfair trade practices, controlling

service charge increases by keeping public service rates low and putting up local public

service rates, all of which are expected to lower prices through competition, and financially

supporting universities without tuition hike.

2. Stimulating the real economy and supporting the working class: working class friendly policies

The 2011 policies for the working class are directed towards creating jobs and strengthening

less competitive sectors of the economy in order to found a basis for expanding the middle

class, and increasing government support for the working class and vulnerable groups.

To help create jobs, the government will give corporate tax reduction to companies

relocating businesses in Korea: 100 percent for the first five years and 50 percent for the next

two years. For a more adaptable job market, the government will adopt more flexible and

worker-friendly regulations: The 40 hour work week to be required to businesses with less

than 20 employees as well, the 2 year maximum period of contract employment not to be

applied to start-up businesses and businesses mainly employing contract workers such as

cleaning and guarding services, the pay system of flexible work arrangement which allows

employees to schedule their own work hours to be changed in favor of workers so that they

can be paid more, the calculating method used to convert the number of part-time

employees into the number of regular workers to be revised from an employee-basis to a

work hour-basis so that more SMEs can be eligible for the government support given to

SMEs with less than 300 workers, laws to be enacted to secure part time positions for

mothers and the sick, and regulations to be revised so that overtime payment can be madewith vacations.

The government will step up efforts to remove unfair treatment of irregular and subcontract

employees: Guidelines for subcontract employee protection to come out in the first half of

2011 along with expanded government inspection for unfair treatment to distribution and

service industries in addition to manufacturing industries, regulations to be revised so that

employees under unfair treatment can report the unfair dealings within 6 months instead of

3 months, and construction companies delaying payment to have disadvantages in public

project bidding with the list of the companies disclosed.

44 December 2010


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To effectively use foreign labor force, the government will develop foreign employment

guidelines based both on economic benefit and social cost: Under review is charging

companies for employing foreign workers so that the size of foreign labor force can be

determined by supply and demand. More jobs will be available to foreign workers, with visa-

issuing process simplified and skills and techniques other than the Korean languageproficiency added to the criteria for selecting foreign employees.

To help foster healthy cooperation between large conglomerates and SMEs, the government

will correct unfair price-setting practices by large purchasing firms, as it will give Korea

Federation of Small and Medium Business rights to request price adjustment. Other

measures to support SMEs will involve new subcontractor protection which will cover all

tiers of subcontractors in addition to first subcontractors, designation of SME businesses in

which SMEs have competitiveness over large companies with follow-up measures to support

SMEs in those businesses, and a close watch over the abuse of the intellectual property

rights by large companies, which harms SMEs with innovative technologies.

To help raise the competitiveness of self-employment, the government will provide

customized support based on business types, which covers training, consultation and

financing. 4,000 old stores will be refurbished with IT and other modern technologies in

2011, and 10,000 old shops will be modernized by 2012.

To revitalize agricultural and fishing industries, the government will help those industries

develop into high-value-added ones with increased R&D support and by creating new

markets. To promote functional food markets, the government will develop various methods

to evaluate and certify functional food. The government will finance domestic fisheries

overseas facility investment, and in case of overseas fish stock search, it will provide support

to raise the competitiveness of the distant water fishing industry.

To support the working class, the government will continue its efforts to reduce their

housing, medical, childcare, and financial cost: 123,000 rental houses to be available in 2011

with financial support of 5.7 trillion won for those who want loans to rent a house, the

national health insurance to cover more of medical expenses in the eight cases of serious

illnesses such as cancers and maternity checkups, day care expenses to be fully supportedfor those in the lower 70 percent of the income bracket, a 20 percent increase from the lower

50 percent, and seniors, disabled, and basic social security recipients exempted from tax on

their savings.

There will be continuous efforts to improve the social security system so that those who

need support have to get support, while any moral hazard can be detected: business owners

employing 50 workers or less to be eligible for employment insurance, a large expansion

from 5 workers or less, and social security recipient information to be shared among

ministries to avoid dishonesty in receiving social security, emergency sensors installed in

living-alone senior houses, which work in case of fire, gas leak, and other emergent



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situations, to be expanded from 30,000 houses in 2010 to 52,000 in 2011. The center for

multicultural families to be increased from 159 centers in 2010 to 200 in 2011, where the

families get help in learning the Korean language, taking care of children, and finding jobs.

Illegal private lenders will be cracked down regularly and rewards will be given for reporting

such lenders.

3. Nurturing new growth engines to achieve sustainable growth

The 2011 policies focus on raising service sector competitiveness and promoting green and

other innovative technology development, the former as a way to find a balance between

exports and domestic demand, and the latter to secure future growth potential.

To raise service sector competitiveness, the government will remove entry barriers to health

care, broadcasting and communications, education, and energy industries in the first half of

2011, help provide new IT convergence services, review and improve the existing plans for

service sector development, and restructure the service sector to produce high-added-value.

To help restructure the service sector to become a high-value-added one, the government

will encourage convergence between industries, such as tourism and health care, consulting

and manufacturing, and technology and art. Under review are service industry-friendly taxes,

financial and R&D support, and a think tank exclusive for the service sector.

Green technologies will have unwavering support in 2011, but ways to more effectively

support them will be sought: All green technology- related government projects will be

reviewed to avoid multiple support for the same technologies. When green technologies

such as new renewable energies and water industries are exported to developing countries,

part of Official Development Assistance (ODA) is appropriated for green technology export

support. Key construction for the four river restoration project such as reservoir construction

will be completed in the first half of 2011, and water protection zones will be designated by

December 2011 to avoid improper development.

The government will evaluate the development of 17 government-designating new growth

engines, 6 green technologies, 6 innovative convergence technologies, and 5 high-value-added technologies, and will differentiate R&D, financial and human resources support on

the basis of the evaluation. It will also give tax incentives to more technologies including

robot application, IT convergence and next generation LCD technologies. Public funds for

nurturing new growth engines will amount to 1,050 billion won in 2011.

4. Expanding overseas cooperation through FTAs and ODA

Korea will actively use FTAs in effect as well as pursue FTAs in negotiation, while providing

support to the industries affected by the trade deals. ODA will be increased from 1.3 trillion

won in 2010 to 1.6 trillion in 2011, with KSP reinforced and expanded as KSP demand from

46 December 2010


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Korea and US make progress in FTA

Korea and the US made substantial progress in the Korea-US Free Trade Agreement (KORUS

FTA) after four days of talks between top trade negotiators of Korea and the US. During the

meeting from November 30 to December 3, Trade ministers of Korea and the US reached an

agreement named agreed elements, which is expected to pave the way for the KORUS FTA

to officially take effect. The updates made on December 3 aimed at clarifying the 2007

Korea-US trade agreement.

Although Korea and the US signed the KORUS FTA on June 30, 2007, its ratification hasbeen delayed for more than three years. Under the 2007 FTA, nearly 95 percent of bilateral

trade in consumer and industrial products would become duty free within three years of the

date the FTA enters into force, and most remaining tariffs would be eliminated within 10

years. The supplemental agreement announced on December 3 showed a number of

improvements as follows:

Korea and the US agreed to completely remove tariffs on all passenger cars after the trade

pact comes into effect. Korea will immediately cut its tariff on US auto imports from 8 percent

to 4 percent and fully eliminate the tariff in the fifth year of the implementation, while the US

will maintain its tax on Korean cars at 2.5 percent until the fifth year of the implementation. Inaddition, as many as 25,000 cars per US automaker will be considered safety-compliant when

GDP

Agriculture, forestry and fisheryManufacturing

Construction

Services3

Private consumption

Government consumption

Facility investment

Construction investment

Goods exports4

Goods imports4

Nominal Gross National IncomeReal Gross National Income

20091 20101

Annual Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3

0.2 0.2 2.4 3.2 0.2 2.1(8.1)2 1.4 (7.2) 0.7 (4.4)

1.6 -0.1 -0.4 2.9 0.4 -4.9 (-1.9) 0.1 (-2.2) -3.50 (-7.5)-1.6 -2.5 8.0 9.4 -1.7 4.2 (20.7) 5.2 (18.0) 2.2 (10.1)

1.9 4.4 1.2 -1.0 -0.6 1.9 (1.5) -0.9 (-0.5) 0.6 (1.0)

1.0 0.3 1.0 0.9 0.9 1.6 (4.4) 0.1 (3.6) 0.1 (2.7)

0.2 0.3 3.3 1.7 0.4 0.7 (6.3) 0.8 (3.7) 1.3 (3.3)

5.0 2.9 0.7 0.0 -2.4 5.8 (3.8) 0.1 (3.2) -0.7 (2.8)

-9.1 -10.5 9.0 10.8 5.3 2.4 (29.9) 9.1 (30.2) 5.5 (24.3)

4.4 5.9 1.8 -0.7 -0.1 1.3 (2.3) -3.6 (-2.9) 1.3 (-2.1)

0.0 -1.7 13.5 5.1 -1.5 3.7 (21.6) 7.0 (14.9) 1.9 (11.5)

-7.9 -5.8 8.7 8.0 -1.3 5.1 (21.8) 9.5 (22.1) 2.1 (16.1)

3.3 0.1 4.2 3.1 1.1 2.8 (11.3) 2.2 (9.3) 1.0 (7.1)1.5 -0.7 4.9 1.1 2.7 0.9 (8.9) 0.5 (5.4) 0.2 (4.3)

(Percentage change from previous period)

*At 2005 chained prices in seasonally adjusted terms

1. Preliminary

2. Percentage changes from the same period in the previous year in original terms

3. Wholesale & retail sales, hotels & restaurants, transportation & storage, communication services, financial & insurance services, real estate & renting, business

services, public administration, defense & social security, educational services, healthcare & social welfare services, entertainment, cultural & sports services

and other services are included.

4. FOB basis


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50 December 2010

imported into Korea provided they meet US federal safety standards. A special safeguard for

motor vehicles is also added to the agreement. The special auto safeguard is available for 10

years beyond the full elimination of tariffs for each Korean auto product.

Meanwhile, the two countries agreed to extend the deadline for the removal of tariffs on US

pork to 2016. On pharmaceuticals, Korea and the US agreed to extend the time period for

fulfilling obligations related to patents from 18 months to three years. They also agreed to

lengthen the L-1 visa validation period for Korean workers residing in the US to five years.

Currently, Korean workers are required to extend their L-1 visas every three years.

OECD raises 2010 growth outlook for Korea

The Organization for International Cooperation and Development (OECD) raised the 2010

growth outlook for Korea to 6.2 percent from the previous projection of 5.8 percent, in its

biannual Economic Outlook report released on November 18. The growth forecast for 2011,

however, was lowered to 4.3 percent from 4.7 percent. After reaching a 7.3 percent annual

rate during the first half of 2010, growth has slowed, in line with other countries in Asia. The

Paris-based agency pointed out that although Koreas strong recovery from the 2008 global

recession slowed in the latter half of 2010, double-digit export growth and buoyant domestic

demand are projected to boost growth to around 5 percent by late 2011.

The National Assembly passes 2011 budget bill

On December 8, the National Assembly approved next years budget bill of 309.1 trillion

won. Compared to the initial proposal by the government, the total revenue is slashed by 0.2

trillion won to record 314.4 trillion won while the total expenditure is cut by 0.5 trillion won

to stand at 309.1 trillion won. The fiscal balance is expected to improve 0.7 percentage

points from -2.7 percent of GDP in 2010 to -2.0 percent in 2011. The national debt will be

decreased by 0.8 percentage points to 35.1 percent of GDP in 2011 from 36.1 percent of 2010.Fewer amounts of national bonds to supplement the general account will be issued in 2011,

as 21.0 trillion won of the bonds are planned to be on the market in 2011 compared with 29.3

trillion won of 2010.


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52 December 2010

Korea hopes to be the 7th largest exporter by 2015

Korea aims to rank as the worlds 7th largest exporter by 2015, said the Ministry of

Knowledge Economy on November 30 on occasion of the countrys 47 th Trade Day. To

achieve the ambitious target, the Ministry suggested three preemptive measures to counter

changes in the global trade environment: first, expanding market penetration in emerging

countries; second, enhancing the competitiveness of small- and medium-sized enterprises

(SMEs); and third, establishing advanced infrastructure for trade.

Meanwhile, President Lee Myung-bak urged Korea to seek new trade policies to cope with a

rapidly changing trade environment. In the celebratory speech to mark the 47th Trade Day,

President Lee stressed the importance of newly emerging countries as the center of world

trade. In addition, the president declared that Korea will further foster SMEs to raise the

proportion of SMEs in Koreas total exports to 40 percent from the current level of 30 percent.

Korea publishes a book on 60-year history of Korean economy

The Korean Economy: Six Decades of Growth and Development, a book on the history of

economic development in Korea which discusses numerous factors behind Koreas

economic success, was published on December 2. The five-volume book is the result of an

ambitious project steered by the Committee for the Sixty-Year History of the KoreanEconomy and involves various research institutions including Korea Development Institute

(KDI). The work is grouped into five areas: general economic policies, industrial growth,

external economic relations, territorial development, and social policies. It is expected to be

a valuable source for other developing countries that want to catch up with advanced

economies in a short period of time as Korea did, and will also serve as a tool for charting

Koreas future path in the face of new challenges. An English version, which is in a

condensed and revised form, is also available.

For the English version, please visit http://www.kdi.re.kr/kdi_eng


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54 December 2010

(year-on-year change, %, chained 2005 year prices)

Period

2003 2.8 -5.4 5.4 0.5 4.4 8.5 -1.5

2004 4.6 9.1 10.0 1.0 2.1 1.3 3.8

2005 4.0 1.3 6.2 4.6 1.9 -0.4 5.3

2006 5.2 1.5 8.1 5.1 3.4 0.5 8.2

2007 5.1 4.0 7.2 5.1 4.2 1.4 9.3

2008 2.3 5.6 2.9 2.0 -1.9 -2.8 -1.0

2009P 0.2 1.6 -1.6 1.3 -0.2 4.4 -9.1

2003 I 3.5 0.7 5.4 2.0 5.1 8.2 2.9

II 1.8 -1.6 3.1 0.3 4.7 8.4 -0.7

III 2.0 -9.6 4.3 0.0 2.8 8.3 -5.8

IV 3.9 -8.0 8.5 -0.4 5.0 9.0 -2.2

2004 I 5.2 8.2 10.9 -0.1 2.3 5.3 -0.6

II 5.9 7.6 12.9 1.3 4.9 4.2 6.4

III 4.8 8.3 10.4 1.0 3.1 1.2 7.7

IV 2.7 11.6 6.2 1.8 -1.4 -3.5 1.8

2005 I 2.7 0.4 4.8 2.7 -0.3 -3.1 3.4

II 3.4 4.8 3.9 4.7 1.8 0.9 2.8

III 4.5 3.8 6.7 5.9 1.5 -0.3 4.1

IV 5.1 -3.1 9.3 4.9 3.9 0.3 10.8

2006 I 6.1 3.9 9.4 5.8 3.8 1.9 7.2

II 5.1 -0.3 9.1 4.9 0.1 -4.2 8.0

III 5.0 -1.4 8.7 4.6 4.0 -0.5 12.0

IV 4.6 4.2 5.4 5.1 5.7 5.1 5.7

2007 I 4.5 1.6 4.5 5.1 7.3 4.4 12.6

II 5.3 7.0 7.2 5.4 5.7 2.0 13.0

III 4.9 8.2 6.3 5.3 1.5 -0.2 4.0

IV 5.7 -0.7 10.2 4.7 3.1 0.4 8.0

2008 I 5.5 7.8 8.9 4.3 -0.6 -2.5 2.8II 4.4 4.6 8.3 3.0 0.6 -0.5 2.0

III 3.3 4.3 5.3 2.4 2.1 0.4 5.3

IV -3.3 6.5 -9.4 -1.7 -

Documents

Economic Bulletin (Vol. 32 No.12)