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THAILAND EQUITY RESEARCH
Page | 1 | PHILLIP SECURITIES (THAILAND)
TMB Bank Adverse impact on new CEO successor less likely
THAILAND | SET | BANK | COMPANY UPDATE BLOOMBERG TMB TB l REUTERS TMB.BK
CEO Boontuck Wungcharoen to step down at end‐2016 Chief Executive Officer Boontak Wangcharoen will step down from the job at end of 2016. Since Boontak took the reign in July 2008, TMB has experienced notable improvement in many areas. Loan grew significantly by 36.1% from end‐2008 to end‐2015 or CAGR of 5.2% and the bank’s deposit mobilization strategy has been proved successfully with “TMB No Fixed” and “Me by TMB” receiving strong response and thereby driving deposit up by 43.2% over the same periods or CAGR of 6.2%. NPL dropped remarkably from Bt70bn to Bt20bn or 14.3% of total loan in 2008 to 3% at end‐2015. Even better, net interest margin increased from 1.8% to 3% as the bank has cast spotlight on SME and retail loans, instead of corporate loan that yields low return. Consequently, the bank’s profitability strengthened considerably from Bt424mn profits in 2008 to Bt9.3bn in 2015, and thus ROE shot up from 0.95% to 12.8%. NPL coverage ratio also jumped from 65.8% to 141.8%, which outnumbered the industry’s average level of 123%. New successor selecting in motion; Non Pokkasap likely the most potential TMB is expected to announce a new successor in June, who will coordinate with CEO Boontak and take control in 2017. A piece of news reported Non already resigned from SCB Maintaining FY16 earnings forecast on hope of no adverse impact from a change into new CEO TMB’s fundamentals have been improved significantly following Boontak took the CEO position. We do not think there might be crucial changes after Boontak has implemented effective system. Meanwhile, an entry of Non should help support TMB growth as Non has expertise in retail consumer after his works with SCB and Unilever. We thus keep our FY16 net profit projection unchanged at Bt9.8bn, which represents a growth of 5.3% y‐y. ‘BUY’ rating maintained with Bt2.80 target price We keep our ‘BUY’ rating on TMB unchanged in view of stronger fundamentals and optimism about new CEO. Our target price is Bt2.80.
Ref. No.: CO2016_0452
Closing Price(Bt) 2.26
Target Price(Bt) 2.80 (+26.89%)
COMPANY DATA
O/S Shares (mn) : 43,750
Market Cap. (Btmn) :
Market Cap. (USDmn) :
52‐WK Hi/Lo (Bt) : 2.76/2.16
3M Average Daily T/O (mn) : 161.87
Par Value (Bt) : 0.95
MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS (%)
1. Ministry of finance 26.0
2. ING BANK N.V. 25.1
3. Thai NVDR Co.ltd. 8.7
PRICE PERFORMANCE (%)
1MTH 3MTH 1YR
ABS ‐1% ‐10% ‐9%
REL TO SET INDEX ‐3% ‐13% ‐5%
PRICE VS SET INDEX
Source: Bloomberg, PSR
KEY FINANCIALS
FYE Dec FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E
Revenue(Btmn) 29,953 33,450 34,637 37,557
Net Profit(Btmn) 9,539 9,333 9,829 11,007
EPS (Bt) 0.22 0.21 0.23 0.25
P/E (X) 10.3 10.6 10.0 8.9
BVPS (Bt) 1.60 1.75 1.91 2.10
P/B (X) 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1
DPS (Bt) 0.06 0.06 0.07 0.08
Dividend Yield (%) 2.7 2.7 3.0 3.4
ROE (%) 14.49 12.75 12.28 12.57
Debt/Equity (X) 11.61 10.95 10.77 10.52
Source: Company, PSR Est.
**Multiples and yields are based on latest closing price
VALUATION METHOD
P/B'16 (1.5x)
Adisorn Mungparnchon
Securities Investment Analyst # 18577
Tel: 66 2 635 1700 # 497
99,005
2,783
22 April 2016
Buy (Maintain)
03 June 2016
0
1
2
3
4
5
Jun‐13 Jun‐14 Jun‐15 Jun‐16
TMB TB EQUITY SETI (rebased)
THAILAND EQUITY RESEARCH
PHILLIP SECURITIESS (THAILAND) | 2 | P a g e
Financials
Income Statement Valuation Ratios
FYE Dec, Btmn FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E FYE Dec FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E
Net Interest Income 21,595 23,220 23,335 25,738 P/E (X), adj.** 10.3 10.6 10.0 8.9
Net Fee Income 5,734 7,821 8,854 9,256 P/B (X), adj.** 1.4 1.3 1.2 1.1
Othe r Non i nte res t i ncome 2,624 2,409 2,448 2,563 Divi dend Yi e l d (%) 2.7 2.7 3.0 3.4
Tota l Non i nte res t i ncome 8,358 10,230 11,302 11,819
Total operating income 29,953 33,450 34,637 37,557 Growth
Opera ti ng expens e 15,774 16,467 17,345 18,442 FYE Dec, % FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E
Pre provision operating profit 14,179 16,983 17,292 19,115 Net i nte res t i ncome 3.71 7.52 0.49 10.30
Provi s i on ‐3,437 ‐5,479 ‐4,981 ‐5,330 Tota l Opera ting i ncome 2.55 11.68 3.55 8.43
Profit Before Tax 10,742 11,504 12,311 13,784 Profi t Before ta x 52.49 7.09 7.01 11.97
Ta xa ti on ‐1,191 ‐2,153 ‐2,462 ‐2,757 Net Income , adj. 66.26 ‐2.16 5.32 11.99
Profit After Tax 9,552 9,351 9,848 11,028
Non ‐control l i ng Inte re s t 13 18 19 20 Margins
Net Income, reported 9,539 9,333 9,829 11,007 FYE Dec, % FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E
Net Income, adj. 9,539 9,333 9,829 11,007 Yi e l d on Ea rning As s et 5.00 5.00 5.00 5.00
Cos t of fund 2.06 2.07 2.08 2.08
Per share data Net Inte res t Margin 3.33 3.32 3.33 3.33
FYE Dec, Bt FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E
EPS, reported 0.22 0.21 0.23 0.25 Key Ratios
EPS, adj. 0.22 0.21 0.23 0.25 FYE Dec FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E
DPS 0.06 0.06 0.07 0.08 ROE (%) 14.49 12.75 12.28 12.57
BVPS 1.60 1.75 1.91 2.10 ROA (%) 1.21 1.13 1.13 1.18
Loan/Depos i t ra ti o (%) 92.98 90.27 90.27 90.27
Balance Sheet NPL (%) 2.07 2.02 1.97 1.97
FYE Dec, Btmn FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E
Ca sh 16,428 17,290 18,032 18,354
Tota l i nte rbank and money market i tems 113,097 115,758 127,334 140,067 FYE Dec, Btmn FY14 FY15 FY16E FY17E
Deri va ti ve s a s s e ts 10,876 12,250 13,475 14,823 CFO
Inves tment 110,859 98,260 108,086 118,895 PBT 0 0 0 0
Tota l l oa ns and a ccrued i nte res t re ce i vable 531,515 581,936 622,672 666,259 Adjus tments 0 0 0 0
Les s l oan l os s res e rve s ‐28,448 ‐29,117 ‐32,613 ‐36,354 WC changes 0 0 0 0
Net l oans and a ccrued i nte res t re ce i vable s 503,066 552,819 590,059 629,904 Ca sh gene ra ted from ops 0 0 0 0
Othe r a s s e ts 55,840 42,559 42,270 42,671 Others 0 0 0 0
Total Assets 810,167 838,937 899,256 964,714 Cashflow from ops 0 0 0 0
Depos i ts 571,625 644,694 689,822 738,110 CFI
Inte rbank and money marke t i tems 72,717 36,217 39,838 43,822 CAPEX, ne t 0 0 0 0
Li abi l i ti e s pa yable on demand 3,145 3,008 3,159 3,317 Others 0 0 0 0
Deri va ti ve s l i a bi l i ti e s 10,172 12,141 12,749 13,386 Cashflow from investments 0 0 0 0
Borrowing 36,249 30,184 31,089 32,022 CFF
Othe r l i a b i l i ti e s 46,282 35,796 38,779 42,029 Sha re i s s uance 0 0 0 0
Total liabilities 740,374 762,339 815,749 873,015 Loans , net of repayments 0 0 0 0
Sha re ca pi ta l 41,653 41,798 41,372 41,372 Divi dends 0 0 0 0
Reta ined ea rnings 23,887 30,733 37,938 45,996 Others 0 0 0 0
Othe r re s erve s 4,165 3,960 4,078 4,201 Cashflow from financing 0 0 0 0
Shareholder Equity 69,704 76,491 83,389 91,569 Net change in cash 0 0 0 0
Non ‐control l i ng i nte re s t 89 107 118 130 Effe cts of exchange ra te s 0 0 0 0
Total Equity 69,793 76,598 83,506 91,699 CCE, end 0 0 0 0
Source : Company Da ta , PSR es t
**Based on la test closing price
THAILAND EQUITY RESEARCH
PHILLIP SECURITIESS (THAILAND) | 3 | P a g e
Fact Sheet
GENERAL INFORMATION RISK FACTORS
Address: 1. Global and domestic economic uncertainties
2. Credit risks
3. Regulatory changes
Tel:
Fax:
URL:
Market/Sector:
BUSINESS DESCRIPTION KEY DEVELOPMENT
REVENUE BREAKDOWN as of KEY FINANCIAL SUMMARY
Btmn 1Q16 4Q15 3Q15 2Q15 1Q15
Revenue 8,408 8,689 8,397 8,401 7,964
Pre‐provision 4,497 4,117 4,224 4,236 4,406
Net profit 2,092 2,621 2,815 2,260 1,638
Assets 838,010 838,937 823,548 808,301 805,153
Liabi l ities 757,600 762,339 749,584 737,182 733,728
Equities 80,410 76,598 73,964 71,119 71,425
EPS (Bt) 0.05 0.06 0.06 0.05 0.04
BVPS (Bt) 1.84 1.75 1.69 1.62 1.63
GPM (%) 53% 47% 50% 50% 55%
NPM (%) 25% 30% 34% 27% 21%
Source: Company, PSR Source: Company, PSR
CUSTOMER BREAKDOWN as of PEER COMPARISON * updated on
as of Mkt Cap. P/E P/BV Div Yield
(Btmn) (x) (x) (%)
TMB Bank PCL
TMB TB 3/16 99,005 10.1 1.3 2.7
Bank of Ayudhya PCL
BAY TB 3/16 274,002 14.1 1.4 2.1
Kasikornbank PCL
KBANK TB 3/16 414,034 11.3 1.4 2.3
Siam Commercial Bank PCL/The
SCB TB 3/16 465,133 10.5 1.5 4.0
Source: Bloomberg, PSR
Source: Company, PSR *Data based on trai l ing 12 months earnings, book value and
dividend per share
31 March 2016
‐Yr 2011: Reduced par value from Bt10 to Bt0.95/share and wiped
out retained losses.
3000 PHAHOLYOTHIN ROAD,
JOMPOL, CHATU CHAK Bangkok
10900
Financials /Banking
TMB engages in universal banking business to serve corporate,
SME, and retai l customers. ING Bank B.V., a financial group in
the Netherland, is its strategic partner and a major shareholder
as well as Ministry of Finance.
Company
name
‐Yr 2015: Launched TMB Touch mobile appl ication that make
financial transactions easy.
‐Yr 2014: Moody's upgraded credit rating from Baa3 to Baa2 with
stable outlook.
‐Yr 2013: TMB stock was added to MSCI Global Standard.
66 2 299 1111
66 2 299 2758
http://www.tmbbank.com
03 June 2016
‐Yr 2012: Launched new products to respond to customers'
various preferences e.g., Me by TMB, One Bank One Account.
31 December 2015
31 March 2016
Interest Income
75%
Fee Income
20%
Other Income
5%
Corporate42%
SME37%
Retail21%
THAILAND EQUITY RESEARCH
PHILLIP SECURITIESS (THAILAND) | 4 | P a g e
Corporate Governance ‐2015
ADVANC BAFS BCP BIGC BTS CK CPN DRT DTAC DTC
EASTW EGCO GRAMMY HANA HMPRO INTUCH IRPC IVL KBANK KCE
KKP KTB LHBANK LPN MCOT MINT MONO NKI PHOL PPS
PS PSL PTT PTTEP PTTGC QTC RATCH ROBINS SAMART SAMTEL
SAT SC SCB SCC SE‐ED SIM SNC SPALI THCOM TISCO
TKT TMB TOP VGI WACOAL
AAV ACAP AGE AHC AKP AMATA ANAN AOT APCS ARIP
ASIMAR ASK ASP BANPU BAY BBL BDMS BECL BKI BLA
BMCL BOL BROOK BWG CENTEL CFRESH CHO CIMBT CM CNT
COL CPF CPI CSL DCC DELTA DEMCO ECF EE ERW
GBX GC GFPT GLOBAL GUNKUL HEMRAJ HOTPOT HYDRO ICC ICHI
INET IRC KSL KTC LANNA LH LOXLEY LRH MACO MBK
MC MEGA MFEC NBC NCH NINE NSI NTV OCC OGC
OISHI OTO PAP PDI PE PG PJW PM PPP PR
PRANDA PREB PT PTG Q‐CON QH RS S & J SABINA SAMCO
SCG SEAFCO SFP SIAM SINGER SIS SITHAI SMK SMPC SMT
SNP SPI SSF SSI SSSC SST STA STEC SVI SWC
SYMC SYNTEC TASCO TBSP TCAP TF TGCI THAI THANA THANI
THIP THRE THREL TICON TIP TIPCO TK TKS TMI TMILL
TMT TNDT TNITY TNL TOG TPC TPCORP TRC TRU TRUE
TSC TSTE TSTH TTA TTCL TTW TU TVD TVO TWFP
TWS UAC UT UV VNT WAVE WINNER YUASA ZMICO
2S AEC AEONTS AF AH AIRA AIT AJ AKR AMANAH
AMARIN AP APCO AQUA AS ASIA AUCT AYUD BA BEAUTY
BEC BFIT BH BIG BJC BJCHI BKD BTNC CBG CGD
CHG CHOW CI CITY CKP CNS CPALL CPL CSC CSP
CSS CTW DNA EARTH EASON ECL EFORL ESSO FE FIRE
FOCUS FORTH FPI FSMART FSS FVC GCAP GENCO GL GLAND
GLOW GOLD GYT HTC HTECH IEC IFEC IFS IHL IRCP
ITD JSP JTS JUBILE KASET KBS KCAR KGI KKC KTIS
KWC KYE L&E LALIN LHK LIT LIVE LST M MAJOR
MAKRO MATCH MATI MBKET M‐CHAI MFC MILL MJD MK MODERN
MOONG MPG MSC MTI MTLS NC NOK NUSA NWR NYT
OCEAN PACE PATO PB PCA PCSGH PDG PF PICO PL
PLANB PLAT PPM PRG PRIN PSTC PTL PYLON QLT RCI
RCL RICHY RML RPC S SALEE SAPPE SAWAD SCCC SCN
SCP SEAOIL SIRI SKR SMG SOLAR SORKON SPA SPC SPCG
SPPT SPVI SRICHA SSC STANLY STPI SUC SUSCO SUTHA SYNEX
TAE TAKUNI TCC TCCC TCJ TEAM TFD TFI TIC TIW
TLUXE TMC TMD TOPP TPCH TPIPL TRT TSE TSR UMI
UP UPF UPOIC UREKA UWC VIBHA VIH VPO WHA WIN
XO
Score Range
< 50%
50‐59%
60‐69%
70‐79%
80‐89%
90‐100%
The disclosure of the survey result of the Thai Institute of Directors Association (IOD)
regarding corporate governance is made pursuant to the Office of the Securities and
Exchange Commission. The survey of the IOD is based on the information of a company
l isted on the Stock Exchange of Thailand and the Market for Alternative disclosure to the
public and able to be accessed by a general public investor. The results, therefore, is from
the perspective of a third party. It is not an evaluation of operation and is not based on
inside information.
The survey result is as of the date appearing in the Corporate Governance Report of Thai
Listed Companies. As a result, the survey result may be changed after that data. Phil l ip
Securities (Thailand) of securities company does not confirm nor certify the accuracy of
such survey result.
No logo given
Number of Logo
Results Presentation
THAILAND EQUITY RESEARCH
PHILLIP SECURITIESS (THAILAND) | 5 | P a g e
Anti‐corruption indicators
Level 5 (Extended)
BCP CPN GYT PE PM PPP PT PTT PTTGC SAT scc
THANI TOP
Level 4 (Certified)
DCC DTC DRT EASTW ECL EGCO ERW FSS GCAP HANA HTC
INTUCH IRPC IVL KBANK KCE KGI KKP KTB LANNA LHBANK MTI
NKI PSL PTG PTTEP SABINA SCB SNC SNP SSF SSSC TCAP
THCOM TISCO TMB TMD TNITY TOG
Level 3 (Established)
Level 3A: Declaration to join CAC, etc
ABC ACAP ADVANC AGE AH AMANAH ANAN AP APCS APURE AS
ASIA ASIAN ASIMAR BIGC BROOK BTS BWG CEN CENTEL CFRESH CHARAN
CHO CHOTI CM CNT COL CPF CPI CPL DELTA DEMCO DIMET
DNA DTAC EA ECF EE EVER FPI GBX GC GFPT GLOW
HMPRO HOTPOT ICC ICHI IFEC INOX INSURE IRC JAS JTS JUBILE
KC KTC KYE LHK LPN LRH MAKRO MC MCOT MFC MFEC
MINT MJD MONO MOONG NBC MSC NDR NINE NMG NSI NTV
OGC PACE PCSGH PDI PG PHOL PLAT PPS PR PRANDA PREB
PS QLT RATCH RML ROBINS ROJNA RWI SAMCO SCCC SCG SEAOIL
SE‐ED SENA SINGER SITHAI SMK SMPC SPALI SPC SPCG SPI SRICHA
SSI STANLY SUPER SVI SYMC SYNEX SYNTEC TASCO TCMC TFI THAI
THRE THREL TICON TKT TLUXE TMILL TMT TNL TPCORP TSTE TSTH
TTCL TU TVI UOBKH UREKA VGI VNT WACOAL WHA ZMICO
Level 3B: Organization's statement but no declaration to join CAC, etc
AAV AHC AIT AKR ARROW ASK BA BDMS BEC BJCHI BUI
CGH CHG CHOW CIG CITY CK CKP COLOR CWT EARTH EASON
EPG F&D FANCY FIRE FMT FORTH GENCO GL GOLD GPSC GRAMMY
HYDRO IRCP IT JCT KCM KWC LH LIT LOXLEY MACO MANRIN
MATI MODERN MSC NOBLE NOK NPK NUSA OISHI OTO PAF PAP
PATO PF PJW PLANB PLE POLAR PRG PTL Q‐CON QTC RCI
S11 SALEE SAM SAMART SAMTEL SAPPE SC SCP SFP SIM SLP
SMT SPA SPORT SSC SST STEC STPI SUC SUTHA SVI T
TBSP TAE TCC TFD TGCI TGPRO THANA THIP TIW TK TMW
TNDT TOPP TPC TPCH TPIPL TSR TT TYCN UAC UBIS UEC
UMI UP UPF UT UV VPO WAVE WINNER YUASA
Level 2 (Declared)
2S ABICO AF AKP AMARIN AMATA AOT APCO AYUD BEAUTY BFIT
BH BKD BLAND BTNC CCP CI CSR CSS EFORL EPCO FE
FNS FVC GEL GLOBAL HEMRAJ IEC IFS INET JUTHA KASET KCAR
KKC KSL L&E LALIN LTX M MALEE MBK MBKET MEGA MK
MPG MTLS NCH NCL NPP OCC OCEAN PB PCA PRINC QH
ROCK RPC S & J SGP SIAM SIS SKR SMG SMIT SORKON SUSCO
TAKUNI TEAM TF TIC TIP TIPCO TMC TMI TPP TRT TRU
TRUE TSC TSI TTW TVD TVO UKEM UNIQ UWC VNG WIIK
WIN XO
Level 1 (Committed)
ACD AEONTS AFC AIRA AJ ALUCON AMC AQUA ARIP AUCT BAT‐3K
BIG BJC BOL BRR BSBM CBG CCET CCN CGD CMR CPH
CSC CSP CTW DCON DRACO DSGT DTCI E EMC ESSO FOCUS
FSMART GIFT GLAND GRAND GUNKUL HFT HTECH ILINK ITD JSP IHL
KDH KTIS KTP LEE LST MAJOR MAX M‐CHAI MDX MIDA MATCH
ML MPIC NC NEP NNCL OHTL PICO PK PL PPM NWR
PRAKIT PRECHA PRIN PSTC RAM RICH RS SANKO SAUCE SAWAD PYLON
SAWANG SCN SEAFCO SHANG SIRI SMART SMM SOLAR SPACK SPG SF
SPPT SPVI STAR SVH SVOA SWC TAPAC TC TCCC TCJ STA
TCOAT TKS TNH TNPC TPA TPAC TPOLY TRC TRUBB TSE TTA
TTI TTL TTTM TWP TWZ U UMS UPA UPOIC UVAN UTP
VARO VI VIBHA VIH VTE WG
Data not available/No policy
A ACC AJD AQ BCH BGT BROCK BSM BTC CHUO CRANE
CPR EIC FER JMART JMT KAMART KBS KIAT LDC MCS METCO
MBAX NEW NEWS NYT PAE PDG PERM PMTA RCL RICHY ROH
POST S SIMAT TCB TR TSF TVT
THAILAND EQUITY RESEARCH
PHILLIP SECURITIESS (THAILAND) | 6 | P a g e
Anti‐corruption indicators
Level 5 : Extended
Anti‐corruption policies extend to business partners, dealers, and distributors.
Level 4 : Certified
Anti‐corruption policies can be engaged by audit committee and auditors approved by the SEC.
Anti‐corruption policies are certified by CAC and independent assurance providers.
Level 3 : Established
Anti‐corruption corruption policies cover anti‐bribery, and communications and educating all employees anti‐corruption policies.
Level 3A Public out statement to join CAC, etc.
Level 3B Declare statement and organization’s anti‐corruption policies but no intention to join CAC, etc.
Level 2 : Declared
Declare statement to participate CAC against corruption.
Level 1 : Committed
Organization and Board of Directors’ statements against corruption and not getting involve in any malpractices.
Assessment
Anti‐corruption progress indicator for listed companies is a part of SEC’s commitment to create sustainability in anti‐corruption and to become a role model to any
related business. The progress indicators comprise of five levels: 1) Committed, 2) Declared, 3) Established, 4) Certified, and 5) Extended. These indicators will
encourage listed firms to formulate anti‐corruption policies to opt out of corruption, and investors can determine their investment based on anti‐corruption indicator
or avoid investment in listed firms that could get involve in corruption.
THAILAND EQUITY RESEARCH
PHILLIP SECURITIESS (THAILAND) | 7 | P a g e
Industry Group Name Sector Name Sector Index
Agro & Food Industry[AGRO] Agribusiness AGRI
Food & Beverage FOOD
Consumer Products[CONSUMP] Fashion FASHION
Home & Office Products HOME
Personal Products & Pharmaceuticals PERSON
Financials [FINCIAL] Banking BANK
Finance & Securities FIN
Insurance INSUR
Industrials [INDUS] Automotive AUTO
Industrial Materials & Machinery IMM
Packaging PKG
Paper & Printing Materials PAPER
Petrochemicals & Chemicals PETRO
Steel STEEL
Property & Construction[PROPCON] Construction Materials CONMAT
Construction Services CONS
Property Development PROP
Property Fund & REITs PF&REIT
Resources [RESOURC] Energy & Util ities ENERG
Mining MINE
Services [SERVICE] Commerce COMM
Media & Publishing MEDIA
Health Care Services HELTH
Tourism & Leisure TOURISM
Professional Services PROF
Transportation & Logistics TRANS
Technology [TECH] Electronic Components ETRON
Information & Communication Technology ICT
PSR Rating SystemCapital Gain Recommendation
> 15% BUY
> 5% ‐ 15% ACCUMULATE / TRADING BUY
> 0% ‐ 5% NEUTRAL
0 <= SELL
Remarks
We do not base our recommendations entirely on the above quantitative return bands. We consider qualitative factors l ike (but
not l imited to) a stock's risk reward profi le, market sentiment, recent rate of share price appreciation, presence or absence of
stock price catalysts, and speculative undertones surrounding the stock, before making our final recommendation
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