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THAILAND EQUITY RESEARCH
Page | 1 | PHILLIP SECURITIES (THAILAND)
Krungthai Card
Focus shifted to market share growth
THAILAND | SET | FIN | COMPANY VISIT BLOOMBERG KTC TB l REUTERS KTC.BK
Focus shifted to market share growth KTC said the company will shift focus on increasing market shares through credit card spending and loan, instead of profit growth like previous years. Its market shares in credit card market stood at 10.2% and loan at 12.6% at end‐3QFY15. Such the strong growth, also outpacing the industry, suggested its high potential, regardless of economic sluggishness. Management believes the robust pace of growth will continue next year and the company plans to launch aggressive marketing campaigns to boost growth. In light of a sharp increase in marketing expense, its profit growth seems to be pale in comparison to previous years.
4QFY15 earnings see potential decrease in fee‐based income amid loan growth KTC announced to reduce its late payment fee to Bt100 from Bt180 and previously Bt250, starting from November 1. As such, fee‐based income is likely to decline in 4QFY15 into next year where would be offset by a potential stronger interest income as loan is expected to increase notably on a high‐demand retail loan during the holiday shopping season in 4QFY15. However, marketing expense that we expect to increase would cause KTC’s net profit to stay flat q‐q at Bt349mn. FY15‐FY16 net profit projections downgraded on potential decrease in fee‐based income The reduction in late payment fee prompts us to revise our FY15‐FY16 net profit projection down to Bt2bn and Bt2.2bn from Bt2.2bn and Bt2.4bn, respectively. Despite the downgrades, the Bt2bn net profit in 2015 represents a growth of as high as 15.4% y‐y. The shift of focus to market shares, instead of earnings growth, would lead to a slower net profit growth at 12.9% in 2016. ‘NEUTRAL’ rating maintained with FY16 target price of Bt106/share Rolling forward to our FY16 valuation, our target price arrives at Bt106/share. In spite of strong fundamentals health, a potential decline in 2016 net profit growth, combined with a nearly fully valued share price, we reiterate a ‘NEUTRAL’ rating on KTC.
Ref. No.: CO2015_0866
Closing Price(Bt) 105.50
Target Price(Bt) 106.00 (+0.47%)
COMPANY DATA
O/S Shares (mn) : 258
Market Cap. (Btmn) :
Market Cap. (USDmn) :
52‐WK Hi/Lo (Bt) : 111/58.25
3M Average Daily T/O (mn) : 0.85
Par Value (Bt) : 10.00
MAJOR SHAREHOLDERS (%)
1. Krungthai Bank 49.5
2. Mr. Mongkol Prakitchaiwattana 8.5
3. Thai NVDR. Co.LTD. 8.1
PRICE PERFORMANCE (%)
1MTH 3MTH 1YR
ABS 5% 29% 69%
REL TO SET INDEX 21% 49% 63%
PRICE VS SET INDEX
Source: Bloomberg, PSR
KEY FINANCIALS
FYE Dec FY13 FY14 FY15E FY16E
Revenue(Btmn) 11,479 12,572 13,681 13,802
Net Profit(Btmn) 1,283 1,755 2,025 2,285
EPS (Bt) 4.97 6.81 7.85 8.86
P/E (X) 21.2 15.5 13.4 11.9
BVPS (Bt) 23.77 28.58 33.29 38.45
P/B (X) 4.4 3.7 3.2 2.7
DPS (Bt) 2.00 2.75 3.25 3.75
Dividend Yield (%) 1.9 2.6 3.1 3.6
ROE (%) 22.66 26.01 25.39 24.70
Debt/Equity (X) 8.47 7.40 6.64 6.15
Source: Company, PSR Est.
**Multiples and yields are based on latest closing price
VALUATION METHOD
P/E'16 (12x)
Adisorn Mungparnchon
Securities Investment Analyst # 18577
Tel: 66 2 635 1700 # 497
19 November 2015
27,201
756
03 March 2015
Neutral (Maintain)
020406080100120
Nov‐12 Nov‐13 Nov‐14 Nov‐15
KTC TB EQUITY SETI (rebased)
THAILAND EQUITY RESEARCH
PHILLIP SECURITIESS (THAILAND) | 2 | P a g e
Corporate Governance ‐2014
BAFS BCP BTS CPN EGCO GRAMMY HANA INTUCH IRPC TOP
KBANK KKP KTB MINT PSL PTT PTTEP PTTGC SAMART IVL
SAT SC SCB SE‐ED SIM SPALI TISCO TMB THCOM SAMTEL
AAV ACAP ADVANC ANAN AOT ASIMAR ASK ASP BANPU BAY
BBL BECL BIGC BKI BLA BMCL BROOK CENTEL CFRESH CIMBT
CK CNT CPF CSL DELTA DRT DTAC DTC EASTW EE
ERW GBX GC GFPT GUNKUL HEMRAJ HMPRO ICC KCE KSL
LANNA LH LHBANK LOXLEY LPN MACO MC MCOT NBC NCH
NINE NKI NMG NSI OCC OFM PAP PE PG PHOL
PJW PM PPS PR PRANDA PS PT QH RATCH ROBINS
RS S & J SAMCO SCC SINGER SIS SITHAI SNC SNP SPI
SSF SSI SSSC STA SVI TCAP TF THAI THANI TSTE
TIP TIPCO TK TKT TNITY TNL TOG TRC TRUE
TSTH TTA TTW TVO UAC VGI VNT WACOAL
2S AF AH AHC AIT AJ AKP AKR AMANAH AMARIN
AMATA AP APCO APCS AQUA ARIP AS ASIA AYUD BEAUTY
BEC BFIT BH BJC BJCHI BOL BTNC BWG CCET CGD
CGS CHOW CI CKP CM CMR CSC CSP CSS DCC
DEMCO DNA EA ESSO FE FORTH FPI GENCO GL GLOBAL
GLOW GOLD HOTPOT HTC HTECH HYDRO IFS IHL INET IRC
IRCP ITD KBS KGI KKC KTC L&E LRH LST MAJOR
MAKRO MATCH MBK MBKET MEGA MFC MFEC MJD MODERN MONO
MOONG MPG MTI NC NTV NUSA NWR NYT OGC OISHI
PACE PATO PB PDI PICO PPM PPP PREB PRG PRIN
PTG QLT QTC RCL SABINA SALEE SCBLIF SCCC SCG SEAFCO
SEAOIL SFP SIAM SIRI SKR SMG SMK SMPC SMT SOLAR
SPC SPCG SPPT SST STANLY STEC STPI SUC SWC SYMC
SYNEX SYNTEC TASCO TBSP TEAM TFD TFI THANA THIP THREL
TIC TICON TIW TKS TLUXE TMI TMT TNDT TPC TPCORP
TRT TRU TSC TTCL TUF TVD TWFP UMI UP UPF
UPOIC UT UV UWC VIH WAVE WHA WIN WINNER YUASA
ZMICO
Score Range
< 50%
50‐59%
60‐60%
70‐79%
80‐89%
90‐100%
The disclosure of the survey result of the Thai Institute of Directors Association (IOD)
regarding corporate governance is made pursuant to the Office of the Securities and
Exchange Commission. The survey of the IOD is based on the information of a company
l isted on the Stock Exchange of Thai land and the Market for Alternative disclosure to the
public and able to be accessed by a general public investor. The results, therefore, is from
the perspective of a third party. It is not an evaluation of operation and is not based on
inside information.
The survey result is as of the date appearing in the Corporate Governance Report of Thai
Listed Companies. As a result, the survey result may be changed after that data. Phil l ip
Securities (Thai land) of securities company does not confirm nor certify the accuracy of
such survey result.
No logo given
Number of Logo
Results Presentation
THAILAND EQUITY RESEARCH
PHILLIP SECURITIESS (THAILAND) | 3 | P a g e
Industry Group Name Sector Name Sector Index
Agro & Food Industry[AGRO] Agribusiness AGRI
Food & Beverage FOOD
Consumer Products[CONSUMP] Fashion FASHION
Home & Office Products HOME
Personal Products & Pharmaceuticals PERSON
Financials [FINCIAL] Banking BANK
Finance & Securities FIN
Insurance INSUR
Industrials [INDUS] Automotive AUTO
Industrial Materials & Machinery IMM
Packaging PKG
Paper & Printing Materials PAPER
Petrochemicals & Chemicals PETRO
Steel STEEL
Property & Construction[PROPCON] Construction Materials CONMAT
Construction Services CONS
Property Development PROP
Property Fund & REITs PF&REIT
Resources [RESOURC] Energy & Utilities ENERG
Mining MINE
Services [SERVICE] Commerce COMM
Media & Publishing MEDIA
Health Care Services HELTH
Tourism & Leisure TOURISM
Professional Services PROF
Transportation & Logistics TRANS
Technology [TECH] Electronic Components ETRON
Information & Communication Technology ICT
PSR Rating SystemCapital Gain Recommendation
> +10% Buy
0% to + 10% Neutral
< 0% Sell
Remarks
We do not base our recommendations entirely on the above quantitative return bands. We consider qualitative factors like (but not limited to) a
stock's risk reward profile, market sentiment, recent rate of share price appreciation, presence or absence of stock price catalysts, and speculative
undertones surrounding the stock, before making our final recommendation
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