Fifty Years of California Field Polls

Henry E. Brady and Iris Hui

Survey Research Center

University of California, Berkeley

The Field Poll and Mervin Field

• Introduced to George Gallup as a high school student in Princeton New Jersey in 1937

• Started the Field Poll in 1947

• Field Polls archived at the University of California since 1956

We Examine Over Time…

• Characteristics of Field Polls

• Demographic and Political Trends

• Partisan Coalitions

• Regional Polarization

• Evaluations of Economic Conditions

• Presidential and Gubernatorial Approval

Characteristics of Polls

• Dates: 1956 to 2008

• 273 Polls—Close to 300,000 Respondents

• Sample Size of each poll

• Number of polls per Year

• Mode of Interviewing

• Universe of People Sampled

Sample Size for Each Poll

Number of Polls Per Year

Mode of Interviewing

Universe of People Sampled

Interesting Trends Captured—Also Available in Census

• Income Earners

• Married Couples

• Ethnicity

• Education

Increasing Number of Income Earners in California Households

Decline in Percent Married

Changes in Ethnic Composition of CaliforniaSpanish

Interviewing Begins

Californians are Becoming More Educated

Also Captures Facts Not Captured Elsewhere

• Unionization

• Religiosity

• Partisanship

Union Membership Declined and Then Increased

Religious Preference: Increasing Catholic, Decreasing Protestant, Increasing No Preference

Two Measures of Partisanship

• Party Registration

• Party Identification

Compare Percent Registered as Republican Versus Percent Identified as Republican

Compare Percent Registered as Democrat Versus Percent Identified as Democrat

Trend in Partisanship: Republicans Caught Up During Reagan/Bush administration; Then Declined

Studying Changing Partisan Coalitions

• We combine registration and identification: When Party Registration not available, we use Party Identification Question:

The hybrid result is “Party Association”

• For various demographic groups, we plot the percentage that associates with the Republican party:

For example, the percentage of males over-time who are Republicans

Males More Republican than Females Since Reagan

Red is most Republican Group; Blue is most Democratic

College Educated Split Evenly Between Parties

Top Quartile More Republican; Bottom Quartile More Democratic

Non-Hispanic Whites Equally Split; Latinos more Democratic;

Blacks very Democratic

Those Unmarried but Living Together are Democrats

Protestants Republican, All Others Democratic

Four Regions of California

Divergence among Regions: LA and Bay Area Democratic;

Rest of State Republican

Sources of Partisan Division Over Time

TYPE OF ECONOMIC CONCERN

TIME PERIOD

Current Future

Personal Finances

FINAN1:Personal Finances Now vs. Year Ago

FINAN2:Personal Finances One Year From Now

California Economic Conditions

CALFIN1:CaliforniaEconomy Now

CALFIN2:CaliforniaEconomyOne YearFrom Now

Evaluations of Economic Conditions

Two Measures of the Current Economy

200720042001199819951992198919861983198019771974197119681965196219591956

Bad

In-B

etw

een

Good

3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

California Economy NowPersonal Finances Now vs. Year Ago

Current Evaluations Trend Together with California Measure

Having Higher Variance

What Explains Variations in These Evaluations?

• Political party affiliation

• Real economic conditions

Political Party & Current Personal Financial Conditions

2005

2003

2001

1999

1997

1995

1993

1991

1989

1987

1985

1983

1981

1979

1977

1974

1971

1969

1965

1959

Me

an

Fin

an

cia

l C

on

ditio

n L

ast

Ye

ar

3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

Kenn

John

Nixon- Carter Reagan Bush Clinton Bush

Ford

Republican Party

Democratic Party

Those of Same Party as President Typically Have Similar but Higher Evaluations

of Current Personal Financial Conditions

Political Party & Current Personal Financial ConditionsRespondent Same Party as PresidentRespondent Not Same Party as President

2005

2003

2001

1999

1997

1995

1993

1991

1989

1987

1985

1983

1981

1979

1977

1974

1971

1969

1965

1959

Me

an

Fin

an

cia

l C

on

ditio

n L

ast

Ye

ar 3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

Kenn

John

Nixon- Carter Reagan Bush Clinton Bush

Ford

Those of Same Party as President Typically Have Similar but Higher Evaluations of Current

Personal Financial Conditions

Political Party & Current California Economic ConditionsRespondent Same Party as GovernorRespondent Not Same Party as Governor

Respondents of Same Party Almost Always Have Higher Evaluation

200720042002200019971995199319911989198719811979

Cu

rre

nt

Ca

lifo

rnia

Eco

no

mic

Co

nd

itio

ns

3.0

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

.5

Wilson Davis Sw arz.DeukmejianBrow n

What Do We Conclude?

• Result:– Those of same party as President have higher

evaluations of current personal financial conditions– Those of same party as Governor have higher

evaluations of current California economic conditions (but effect is smaller)

• Explanations:– Projection from party affiliation to evaluation of

performance? – Incumbent party’s partisans doing better?

Current Personal Financial Conditions and Yearly Change in Per Capita Calif. Personal Income

Yearly Change in California Personal Income

Personal Finances Now vs. Year Ago (Rescaled)

2008

2006

2004

2002

2000

1998

1996

1994

1992

1990

1988

1986

1984

1982

1980

1978

1976

1974

1972

1970

1968

1966

1964

1962

1960

1958

1956

Ye

arly

Ch

an

ge

in

Pe

rso

na

l In

co

me

8.0

6.0

4.0

2.0

0.0

-2.0

-4.0

-6.0

-8.0

Kennedy-Johnson

Nixon- Carter Reagan Bush Clinton BushFord

Eisen-how er

Correlation = .553

Current California Economic Conditions and Yearly Change in Per Capita Calif. Personal Income

2007

2005

2003

2001

1999

1997

1995

1993

1991

1989

1987

1985

1983

1981

1979

1977

Ye

arl

y C

ha

ng

e in

Pe

rso

na

l In

co

me

8

6

4

2

0

-2

-4

-6

Carter Reagan Bush Clinton Bush

Yearly Change in California Personal IncomeCalifornia Economic Conditions Now

Correlation = .534

Conclusions about Economic Measures

• Current Personal and especially Current California evaluations are greatly affected by real economic conditions

• Party affiliation is related to evaluations but much less than real conditions

Presidential and Gubernatorial Approval

• Measurement: Combining different question wordings using split samples

• Considering over-time:– Impact of Party– Impact of Real Economic Conditions

Presidential Approval and Political Party

Respondent Same Party as PresidentRespondent Not Same Party as President

2007

2005

2003

2001

1999

1997

1995

1993

1991

1989

1987

1985

1983

1981

1979

1977

1974

1970

1963

1961

Pre

sid

en

tia

l A

pp

rova

l

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

0%

Kenn

John

Nixon- Carter Reagan Bush Clinton Bush

Ford

Gubernatorial Approval and Political Party

Respondent Same Party as GovernorRespondent Not Same Party as Governor

2005

2002

1999

1996

1993

1990

1987

1984

1981

1978

1975

1972

1969

1965

1961

Gu

be

rna

tori

al A

pp

rova

l

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

0%

Brow n Reagan Brow n Deukmejian Wilson Davis Sw arz.

Conclusions about Partisanship and Approvals

• Being of the same party as the Executive leads to about a 20% to 25% higher rating of the Executive than for those without party affiliation and

• Being of the same party as the Executive leads to about a 28% to 40% higher rating for the Executive than for those in the other party

• Projection or Doing Better?

Gubernatorial Approval and Current California Economic Conditions—Excellent Tracking

Current California Economic Conditions (rescaled)Gubernatorial Approval

200820052002199919961993199019871984198119781975

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

0%

Brow n Deukmejian Wilson Davis Sw arz.

Gubernatorial Approval and Current Per Capita Change in California Personal Income—Good Fit

Current Per Capita Change in Calif. Personal Income (rescaled)Gubernatorial Approval

2007

2004

2001

1998

1995

1992

1989

1986

1983

1980

1977

1974

1971

1968

1965

1962

1959

1956

100%

80%

60%

40%

20%

0%

Brow n Reagan Brow n Deukmejian Wilson Davis Sw arz.

Yearly Per Capita Change

in California Personal Income

Evaluation of Current

California Economic

Conditions

Gubernatorial Approval

Gubernatorial Approval and Economic Conditions

Other Factors

Yearly Change in Per-Capita California Personal Income

2007

2004

2001

1998

1995

1992

1989

1986

1983

1980

1977

1974

1971

1968

1965

1962

1959

Ye

arl

y C

ha

ng

e in

Ca

lifo

rnia

Pe

rso

na

l In

co

me

6%

4%

2%

0%

-2%

-4%

Average Yearly Change of 2.33%

Economic Conditions and Gubernatorial Approval

• Average yearly change in per capita California personal income is 2.33%.

• An increase of this amount is associated with a 4.2% increase in Gubernatorial approval in the first year

• And a 3.7% increase in Gubernatorial approval in the next year

• Hence the total effect can be almost 8%

Much More to Be Learned!• Best available data on California for the over-

time study of:

– Religiosity, Unionization, Partisanship

– Mass Public’s Evaluation of Economic Conditions

– Gubernatorial and Presidential Approval in California

– Electoral Coalitions, Voting

Regional Polarization in Presidential Vote Choice from

1964 to 2004

Year

Co

un

ty

San Diego

Orange

San Bernardino

Kern

Tulare

Fresno

Los Angeles

San Mateo

Alameda

San Francisco

1964 1968 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004

0

20

40

60

80

100

Year

Co

un

ty

San Francisco

Alameda

San Mateo

Los Angeles

Fresno

Kern

Tulare

San Bernardino

San Diego

Orange

1964 1968 1976 1980 1984 1988 1992 1996 2000 2004

0

20

40

60

80

100From South to North.